Energy Photovoltaics in Germany - Experiences with systems up to 250 kwp

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1 Energy Photovoltaics in Germany - Experiences with systems up to 250 kwp Thomas Chrometzka Head of International Affairs Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft e.v.

2 German Solar Industry Association 2 TASK VISION ACTIVITIES EXPERIENCE MEMBERS HEADQUARTERS To represent the German solar industry in the solar thermal and photovoltaic sector A global sustainable energy supply provided by solar (renewable) energy Lobbying, political advice, public relations, market observation, standardization Active in the solar energy sector for over 30 years More than 850 solar producers, suppliers, wholesalers, installers and other companies active in the solar business Berlin

3 Our energy system must change 3 since: We are highly dependent on energy imports (security of supply) Fossil & nuclear resources are finite (but demand is growing) Climate change requires us to act urgently Diagrams: AEE / Sources: BMU, BMWI We should leave oil before it leaves us Fatih Birol, Chief Economist IEA, March 2008

4 Why solar? Well /05/2010

5 More investments in PV by families compared to the big four utilities (in DE) 5 Investments of the big four utilities in power plants Private Investments of families in solar PV and solar thermal systems

6 Development of the German PV market 6 Market Data Photovoltaics in Germany 2010* Newly installed power 7,400 MWp Total installed power 17,200 MWp Solar electricity produced 12,000 GWh No. of all systems installed 860,000 Employees 130,000 (Source: BSW-Solar) * Preliminary figures, rounded, 3/ Milestones 1991: First Feed-in Law (FIT with low tariffs) : 1,000 roofs program (grants) : 100,000 roofs program (loans) 2000: Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) (FIT) : Amendment (revision) of EEG (FIT) 2010: Amendment (revision) of EEG (FIT) * annually installed cumulated installed 0

7 Percentage of PV electricity growing 7 PV-electricity production has doubled in the first 5 months compared to PV will cover 3 percent of demand in Germany Quelle: UNB, EEX, eigene Berechnungen BSW-Solar

8 Ground- Rooftop BIPV mounted Market segments Germany (2010) 8 Mounting effort Preliminary Figures Source: Statistics of the Federal Network Agency, BSW-Solar Estimates Shares according to installed capacity. <1% Residential (1-10 kwp) Commercial ( kwp) Industrial (>100 kwp) 10% 49% 25% Images: Schüco, Grammer, Sharp, Solarwatt, BP, Geosol 15% Size of system

9 Newly added capacity according to system classes Comparison 2009/ MWp 2% 104 MWp 1% 636 MWp 17% 395 MWp 10% MWp 19% 581 MWp 8% 635 MWp 17% MWp 30% MWp 23% MWp 25% 899 MWp 24% MWp 24% Anlagenklasse <5 kwp Anlagenklasse 5-10 kwp Anlagenklasse kwp Anlagenklasse kwp Anlagenklasse kwp Anlagenklasse >1000 kwp

10 Number of added PV systems according to system classes Comparison 2009/ % 214 0% % 535 0% % % % % % % % % Anlagenklasse <5 kwp Anlagenklasse 5-10 kwp Anlagenklasse kwp Anlagenklasse kwp Anlagenklasse kwp Anlagenklasse >1000 kwp

11 Development of system sizes in DE 11 Development of system sizes according to installed capacity 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% >1000 kwp > kwp > kwp >10-30 kwp >5-10 kwp 0-5 kwp 10% 0% Source: Federal Network Agency

12 <250 kw customer groups 12 Private customers Commercial customers Farmers Public Buildings Professional Investors

13 Return expectations of customers 13 Private customers Professional Investors Commercial customers Farmers Public customers

14 Customer Group: Farmers 14 Results of 2009 study among farmers (EuPD 2009) Photovoltaics in the opinion of farmers has a very positive image: Overall, 80 percent of respondents are sympathetic to solar power generation. The interest in PV is high: more than 67 percent of the surveyed farmers were interested to purchase a PV system. 14 percent concretely planned an investment in the next close future. 13 percent already had a PV system in place. A very intensively used information channel among farmers is a direct conversation with friends or acquaintances. Be it at the pub or in the neighborhood: this informal way of obtaining information is very important here. Rates of return are decisive criteria with regard to the purchase of a PV system, as well as a large available roof area. The by far most frequently cited reason for not purchasing a PV system was a not suitable roof surface. Also, sometimes the initial investment is considered too high.

15 Despite higher return expectations 15 larger systems allow for lower system prices! System below 10 kw System beween 10 kw 100kW Difference: ~10,5% Min Average Max

16 PV system prices decrease steadily 16 Especially larger systems drive down the cost for solar and allow for lower feed-in tariff rates /kwp PV system prices decrease steadily Overall price reduction by 50 since Q2/ Average end-customer prices (system prices) for installed roof-mounted systems of up to 100 Kilowatt peak per kilowatt peak without tax Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: BSW-Solar PV Price Index 5/2011

17 On the brink of competitiveness 17

18 Direct consumption an option <500kW 18 option can be chosen by PV system operator direct consumption requires additional meter to be installed PV system does not longer feed all power to the grid kwh produced and consumed is in addition remunerated reduces overall FIT payments significantly Interesting solution for commercial customers

19 PV with significant share in power mix 19

20 Photovoltaics pay off 20

21 Conclusions 21 The system size - of PV systems being installed in Germany - is constantly increasing While residential rooftop systems have been more prominent in the beginning, the commercial segment meanwhile is the largest in Germany Within this segment, farmers play a crucial role in Germany while this might be less relevant for Portugal, the new scheme in Portugal may allow for new customers e.g. in the tourism sector While larger scale rooftop systems investors are generally looking for higher margins, these kind of systems also drive down the price for PV systems The potential customer group will increase significantly with the new mini-generation programme

22 Energy Thank you for your attention! Thomas Chrometzka Head of International Affairs Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft e.v. Friedrichstr Berlin