Advisory Workshop for Evaluating Public Policies on Climate Change in Brazil. OCN Mapping Exercise

Transcription

1 Advisory Workshop for Evaluating Public Policies on Climate Change in Brazil OCN Mapping Exercise Viviane Romeiro e Gabriela Couto October, 2013

2 Presentation outline 1. National Climate Policy Assessment for Brazil a) Main objective b) Methodology 2. Mapping exercise of listed studies a) Main objective b) Methodology 3. Analysis of the listed studies 4. Summary of the mapping exercise of listed studies

3 1 National Climate Policy Assessment for Brazil a) Main objective: The proposed assessment will try to address key challenges and opportunities to climate policy implementation in Brazil as an input to the advance of climate policy framework in the country, to the development of long term low carbon development plans and strategies and also to biennial review of Brazil s national and sectoral climate change plans b) Methodology: Literature Review Conversations with experts Mapping exercise

4 2 Mapping exercise of listed studies a) Main objective: The analysis of relevant studies thru the mapping exercise aims at helping gauge how current literature in Brazil helps us to answer the questions of the proposed National Climate Policy Assessment in Brazil and what could help to add value to current understanding. b) Methodology: OCN Research Structure for the mapping exercise List of existing studies

5 2 MAPPING EXERCISE OF LISTED STUDIES Questions 1 What is the country s emissions trajectory under the current policy scenario? 2 Are there risks or opportunities associated with the current policy portfolio that need to be addressed in order to maximize the country s mitigation effectiveness? 3 What is the potential for future emission reduction?

6 3 Analysis of the mapping exercise of listed studies What does the landscape of existing assessments cover well and what gaps remain to be analyzed? Examples: additional analysis in particular sectors that are important but are not covered yet; a clearer understanding of barriers to implement specific key climate policies, etc.; critical issues demanding analysis at climate policy framework level which are not addressed at sectoral level.

7 Question 1 Projections and estimates Assessment of low carbon policies in specific sectors, and impact analysis of the low carbon policies in the Brazilian economy; Strategies to reduce GHG emissions and to estimate expenses on mitigation initiatives by 2020 and by 2050 Integrated model for GHG projections Do projections indicate that country will meet its pledge based on currently adopted policies? What are the estimates that best reflect the country s emissions trajectory under the current policy scenario?

8 Question 1 Projections and estimates Analysis on the revision of the Forest Code with preliminary estimates and the possible impacts on the GHG targets under the PNMC. It would be important to assess the real implications on the National GHG pledges under the current version of the Forest Code. Examination of baseline issues under the National Policy on Climate Change

9 Question 2 Risks and opportunities Harmonization of subnational climate policies Lack of harmonization between national and subnational levels Studies that try to articulate and to increase engagement among policy makers The relevance of harmonizing and coordinating climate policies, since they would become more effective only if an appropriate application of the rules in the federal, state and local contexts is conducted.

10 Question 2 Risks and opportunities Harmonization of subnational climate policies Innitiative to integrate the various sectoral and subnational policies on climate change, as well as strengthening relationship and exchange knowledge among governmental bodies. Standard of metric tools to measure GHG, for example, is a key issue to have national and subnational policies successfully implemented. There is an important legal framework given by those policies and harmonization among them needs to be further developed in order to improve governance and effectiveness.

11 Question 2 Risks and opportunities Integration of climate policies Climate change governance/ lack of integration of policies Federal and the state governments having chosen different pathways for addressing the challenges posed by climate change Lack of integration and coordination on climate change policies from the various ministries. Climate Policies are not well integrated. How to integrate them?

12 Question 2 Risks and opportunities Capacity needs Experts have different opinions about Brazilian climate policy conduction. The lack of institutional capacity for MA actions, differently by each sector The relevance of improving national institutional capacities The need to create a transparent governance structure (regulatory agency) How much of the government actions have been guided by the National Policy? How much was the National Policy incorporated as a tool to support decision maker?

13 Question 2 Risks and opportunities Climate finance Lack of sufficient financial resources to implement the policy actions; Lack of permanent fund resources Limits and reaches of the NFCC There are national initiatives under the PNMC for financing mitigation, but they face challenges related to resources, program implementation, and effectiveness. Identification and access to different types of financing Competitiveness studies are necessary to verify the most appropriate climate policy approach for each sector

14 Question 2 Risks and opportunities Monitoring actions and tracking progress tools The relevance of improving technical capacity to design and domestically assure the MRV of the mitigation actions in Brazil the lack of monitoring programs to track progress on climate policies over longer timeframes, including the progress on the sectoral plans The creation of more efficient tools to enable civil society to monitor the main actions Analysis to enhance policy performance monitoring and evaluation of the short, medium andlong term impacts Studies to assess and define indicators for measuring the impacts and effectiveness of policies

15 Question 3 Potential of reductions There are some studies that explore different scenarios by 2020, 2035 and 2050 The potential of the new sectoral plans for further emission reductions by 2020; etc.). Analysis on the perspective of a huge intensification of oil & gas production from the pre salt offshore fields (and implications for CCS and BECCS)

16 4 Summary of the mapping exercise of listed studies O Assessment focus on: Central Issue: Type of publication Emission trajectory Risks and opportunities Potential for abatement National Policy Subnation al Policies National Plan Sectors Climate Scenarios Climate Economics Int l Report National Report Ph.D. Dissertations Book Paper w/ peer review 1 X X X X 2 X X X 3 X X X 4 X X X X 5 X X X X 6 X X X 7 X X X 8 X X X 9 X X X X X X 10 X X X 11 X X X X X 12 X X X 13 X X X X 14 X X X X 15 X X X X X 16 X X X X 17 X X X X X 18 X X X X X 19 X X X X 20 X X X X X 21 X X X X X 22 X X X X 23 X X X X 24 X X X X 25 X X X X 26 X X X X X 27 X X X X

17 Type of publication of the 27 Studies 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 34.6% 30.8% 25.0% 20.0% 19.2% 15.0% 11.5% 10.0% 7.7% 5.0% 0.0% National Report Int l Report Paper w/ peer review Book Ph.D. Dissertations Focus of the 27 Studies based on the 3 questions: 80% 70% 69% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 42% 31% 0% Risks and opportunities Emission trajectory Potential for abatement

18 Central issue of the 27 Studies 70% 60% 50% 40% 62% 58% 30% 20% 10% 23% 8% 8% 8% 0% Sectors National Policy Subnational Policies National Plan Climate Economics Climate Scenarios Sectors covered 40% 35% 37% 37% 30% 25% 20% 26% 22% 15% 10% 5% 11% 7% 7% 0% LULUCF Energy Agriculture and Livestock Transportation Waste Management Industry Focus on the sectoral plans

19 4 Summary of the mapping exercise of listed studies Question 1 projections and estimates Brazil s targets based on currently adopted policies Updated analysis on the impacts of the recent Forest Code Amendment; Examination of baseline issues under the National Policy on Climate Change Critical issues demanding analysis at climate policy framework level which are not addressed at sectoral level

20 4 Summary of the mapping exercise of listed studies Question 2 risks and opportunities risks and benefits associated with the current regulatory framework harmonization and coordination challenges among the national and subnational policies needs of more integration among policies needs of more financial mechanisms to maximize the country s mitigation effectiveness. the limits and reaches of the National Fund on Climate Change indicators and metrics for measuring the impacts and effectiveness of key climate policies (technical capacity, MRV, etc.)

21 4 Summary of the mapping exercise of listed studies Question 3 potential of reductions Potential impacts from the sectoral plans for further reduction of emissions in Brazil Additional analysis in particular sectors and technologies that are important but are not deeply covered yet: CCS transportation Industry

22 REFERENCES LIST OF EXISTING STUDIES ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK (ADB) AND INTER AMERICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK. NAMA s in the Transport Sector Case Studies from Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and the People s Republic of China BIDERMAN FURRIELA, Rachel. The limits and the reach for public participation in supporting the implementation of subnational climate policies and the city of São Paulo. Ph.D. Dissertation. FGV, BRAZILIAN CLIMATE OBSERVATORY. Potential impacts from the Brazilian Forest Code changes on the Brazilian National GHG Pledges, BRAZILIAN PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (PBMC). Assessment of policies, institutions and resources. First Report of the National Assessment. Climate Change Mitigation, CASTELLO, Melissa Guimaraes: Brazilian policies on climate change: The missing link to cities. Low Carbon Cities (Volume 28, Issue 6, December 2011, Pages ) CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES AND MANAGEMENT IN SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION (CGEE). Brazilian National Plan on Climate Change diagnosis. Brasília, 2013 (ongoing study). CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES AND MANAGEMENT IN SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION (CGEE). GHG monitoring system on the actions of the sectoral plans for mitigation and adaptation. Brasília, 2013 (ongoing study). ETHOS INSTITUTE AND THE BRAZILIAN FORUM ON CLIMATE CHANGE. The challenge to harmonize public policies on climate change in Brazil GARIBALDI, Jose Alberto et al. Comparative analysis of five case studies: commonalities and differences in approaches to mitigation actions in five developing countries. Climate and Development, GLOBE INTERNATIONAL. Climate Legislation Study: A Review of Climate Change Legislation in 33 Countries. Third Edition. Edited by Terry Townshend, Sam Fankhauser, Rafael Aybar, Murray Collins, Tucker Landesman, Michal Nachmany and Carolina Pavese, GREENPEACE. Assessment of the Brazilian National Policy on Climate Change and the implementation of its sectoral plans, 2013 (ongoing study). GVAgro. ABC OBSERVATORY. Low carbon emission agriculture: The evolution of a new paradigm. FGV Agro, GVces AND THE WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE (WRI). Measurement and Performance Tracking: Scoping and Survey results. Brazil Report INSTITUT DU DÉVELOPPEMENT DURABLE ET DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES (IDDRI). Brazil: Curbing forests emissions and anticipating energy issues. Emilio La Rovere (CentroClima/COPPE/UFRJ), Marcelo Poppe (CGEE) n 07/12 april LUCON,O.;ROMEIRO,V.;PACCA,S.Reflectionsontheinternationalclimate change negotiations: a synthesis of a working group on carbon emission policy and regulation in Brazil. Energy Policy, Volume 59, August 2013, Pages , 2013

23 LUCON, Oswaldo; GOLDEMBERG, José. São Paulo The Other Brazil: Different Pathways on Climate Change for State and Federal Governments. The Journal of Environment & Development, Volume 19, issue 3 (September 2010), p SAGE Publications MARCOVITCH, Jacques et al. Climate change economics: costs and opportunities. IBEP: São Paulo, MITIGATION ACTION IN DEVELPING COUNTRIES (MAPS). Country Study for Brazil. Rovere E.L.L. CentroClima/PPE/COPPE/UFRJ, MINISTRY IF SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION (MCTI) and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Options to mitigate GHG emissions in key sectors in Brazil, 2013 (ongoing project). MOTTA, Ronaldo Seroa. et.al. THE BRAZILIAN NATIONAL POLICY ON CLIMATE CHANGE: Regulatory and Governance aspects. In: Climate change in Brazil: Regulatory, social and economic aspects. IPEA, 2011 RIBAS, Rodrigo Pacheco. CO2 emissions from the energy sector in the context of the National Policy on C limate Change. Rio de Janeiro: Ph.D. Dissertation UFRJ/COPPE, ROMEIRO, Viviane; PARENTE, Virginia. Climate change regulation and the role of subnational policies. In: Climate change in Brazil: Regulatory, social and economic aspects. IPEA, ROVERE, E.L.L., DUBEUX, C.B.S., PEREIRA Jr., A.O. & Wills, W Brazil beyond 2020: from deforestation to the energy challenge. Climate Policy, ROVERE, E.L.L. et al. Comparative study on three GHG emissions scenarios in Brazil and a cost benefit analysis. Projeto BRA /00/020 MMA/PNUD, SCHAEFFER, R. et.al.energy related climate change mitigation in Brazil: Potential, abatement costs and associated policies. Energy Policy, Volume 49, October 2012, Pages The OCN Landscape Assessment. GEBARA, Fernanda & THUAULT, Alice. GHG Mitigation in Brazil: An Introduction to the Current Policy Landscape with a Focus on the Land Use Sector (ongoing study). THE WORLD BANK GROUP. Brazil Low carbon Country Case Study. Christophe de Gouvello et al Additional studies to be included in the mapping exercise: ASSELT, van Harro et al. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) in developing countries: challenges and opportunities. Netherlands Research Programme on Scientific Assessment and Policy Analysis for Climate Change (WAB), CENTER FOR CLEAN AIR POLICY. Assisting Developing Country Climate Negotiators through Analysis and Dialogue: analysis of implementation of GHG mitigation measures in Brazil, China and India: NAMA s and International Implications GERMAN WATCH 2012 Climate Change Performance Index 2013 MARCOVITCH, Jacques (Org.). A redução de emissões de gases de efeito estufa e a legislação brasileira. São Paulo: FEA/USP, Disponível em: < tellus.uspnet.usp.br/mudarfuturo/2010>. MARCOVITCH, Jacques (Org.). Para mudar o futuro: Mudanças Climáticas, Políticas Públicas e Estratégias Empresariais, ISBN 10: MCKINSEY. Pathways to a low carbon economy in Brazil

24 Obrigada! Thank you!

25 2 MAPPING EXERCISE OF LISTED STUDIES Questions 1 What is the country s emissions trajectory under the current policy scenario? 2 Are there risks or opportunities associated with the current policy portfolio that need to be addressed in order to maximize the country s mitigation effectiveness? 3 What is the potential for future emission reduction?