Baltic Sea Region Climate Change Adaptation Strategy

Transcription

1 Baltic Sea Region Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Project type: EU INTERREG IV B project Period: 36 months Kick-off meeting: January 2011 HELCOM HABITAT meeting 24 May 2012 Susanne Altvater Ecologic Institute

2 Background EU s strategy for the Baltic Sea... Elaborated by the European Commission Launched in 2009 Four focus areas: 1) Environmentally sustainable development 2) Increase economical/industrial competitivenes 3) Improve infrastructure 4) Security Focus area 1), priority area 5 (of 15): Adaptation to climate change Priority area 5 is implemented via the action plan: To establish a regional adaptation strategy for the Baltic Sea Region BALTADAPT

3 Mission Baltadapt s mission is to prepare and adapt the Baltic Sea Region to ongoing climate change.

4 Overall objective: Project goals and expected results Come up with sustainable solutions for climate adaptation in the Baltic Sea Region Objectives: Develop a climate change adaptation startegy for the Baltic Sea region Expected results: Improve knowledge sharing between scientists and politicians Collect existing knowledge on climate change adaptation, and identify and fill in gaps of this knowledge Develop a climate change adaptation strategy for the Baltic Sea region Develop an action plan (for decision makers) for the Baltic Sea region

5 Baltadapt partnership The Secretariat of the Council of the Baltic Sea States (CBSS)/Baltic 21 Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI; LP) National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus, University (NERI) Federal Environment Agency (UBA) Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU)- subcontractor: Ecologic I. Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE) University of Tartu, Estonian Marine Institute (EMI) University of Latvia (LU) Baltic Environmental Forum (BEF), Lithuania Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde (IOW) Associated partner: PP Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russia

6 Work package 1: Project management Work package 2: Communication and information Project structure Work package 3: Develop a BSR climate change adaptation strategy Work package 5: Develop a BSR climate change action plan Work package 4: Develop knowledge base and vulnerability assessment for the BSR

7 Project structure WP 4 Work package 4: Develop knowledge base and vulnerability assessment for the BSR Status: Work group 1: ww BSR physical system Work group 2: BSR ecosystem Work group 3: BSR coastal zone T1: Describe the state of knowledge (review and compilation of literature and recent research results) T2: Identify climate change impacts on the physical system, eco system and coastal zone env. cond. (e.g., questionnaires send to experts) T3: Review of adaptation strategies, identify funding needs for future activities The assessment in WP 4 is a review of existing knowledge on climate change and related issues, not an evaluation of climate change itself.

8 Background The Baltic Sea and its coastlines face challenges due to climate change... Changes in precipitation amounts and patterns Increase in terrestrial and sea temperatures Rise in sea level Decrease in ice cover Intensified eutrophication and algal blooms, increased runoff and pollution...it is time to adapt now!

9 Climate change - what does data tells us Ensemble of 9 different, coupled, regional climate models for the IPCC A1B scenario Winter temperatures (avg ) (avg ). (50-percentile is approx. equal to the avg. of the nine model scenarios) Summer temperatures (avg ) (avg ). (50-percentile is approx. equal to the avg. of the nine model scenarios) Conclusion: 3-5ºC increase in the Baltic Sea region Conclusion: 2-4ºC increase in the Baltic Sea region Results from the EU-project Ensemble ( ), Dr. Ole Bøssing Christensen, DKC, DMI

10 Climate change - what does data tells us Ensemble of 9 different, coupled, regional climate models for the IPCC A1B scenariet Winter precipitation [change in % from (avg ) to (avg )]. (50- percentile is approx. equal to the avg. of the nine model scenarios) Summer precipitation [change in % from (avg ) to (avg )]. (50-percentile is approx. equal to the avg. of the nine model scenarios) Conclusion: ~20-40% higher precipitation in the Baltic Sea region Conclusion: ~5% less to 24% higher precipitation in the Baltic Sea region Results from the EU-project Ensemble ( ), Dr. Ole Bøssing Christensen, DKC, DMI

11 Areas affected by storm surges Climate change storm surges Coast lines in the North Sea and Baltic Sea affected by storm surges Future changes in sea level and in storm surge heights owing to: 1) Changes in global sea level. 2) Regional and local changes owing to land rise. 3) Changes in direction and strength of local winds. Schmidt-Thomé, P., et al. (2006). The spatial effects and management of natural and technological hazards in Europe -ESPON (ESPON report No ). Geological Survey of Finland (GTK).

12 Increase in water level: Effect of changes in local winds (2100 Now) Climate change storm surges Expected increase in sea level by yr Expected sea level rise in Danish waters by yr Individual contributions Global sea level rise cm Land rise (10-20) cm Contrib. from local winds 0-40 cm Modeled (IPCC A2) 10 yr. extreme for year 2100 minus today. Largest increase (up to cm) is expected in the Wadden sea, Gulf of Finland and the Bothnian Bay. Sum cm K. S. Madsen, Recent and future climatic changes in temperature, salinity, and sea level of the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. PhD thesis, 2009, pp Danish energy agency, see

13 Upcoming ecological studies Biodiversity and habitats in future Baltic climate scenarios (by Karsten Dahl, Alf Josefson, Cordula Göke, Jesper Philip Aagaard Christensen, Jørgen Hansen all DMI) Baltic fish stocks and fisheries (by H. Peltonen, SYKE)

14 Topics: 1. Biodiversity and habitats in future Baltic climate scenarios Climate change related effects on the eutrophication state of the Baltic Sea Temperature effect on nutrient concentrations in estuaries less nitrogen and more phosphorous Reactions of plankton to anthropogenic climate change in the Baltic Sea Scenarios of fauna and flora changes due to climate warming in the Baltic Sea - effects of decreased salinity and spreading of hypoxia

15 Topics: 1. Biodiversity and habitats in future Baltic climate scenarios Effects of increasing temperature on selected macroalgel species Expected global change effects on seaweed forests Global change effect on eelgrass communities Expected effects on biota by hazardous substances in a future climate (case study from Lithuania)

16 Topics: 2. The Baltic Sea fish stocks and fisheries Are the marine fish populations of the Baltic Sea unique? Climate change and ecosystem regime shifts Climate changes and zooplankton production Consequences of climate change on fish stocks (cod, sprat and herring) Adaptation measures

17 Baltadapt Climate Info Baltadapt Climate Info The Baltic Sea in a future climate (WP 4, Develop a knowledge base) #1 Air temperature #2 Precipitation #3 Wind #4 Sea level #5 Oxygen content #6 Salinity #7 Water temperature #8 Biodiversity and habitats #9 Biological production #10 Wind-generated waves #11 River discharge #12 Nutrient loads #13 Eutrophication #14 Sea ice Available at

18 Thank you! Ecologic Institute, Pfalzburger Str , D Berlin phone +49 (30) , fax +49 (30)