A Scenario-based Approach For Implementing Climate Adaptation On Public Conservation Lands

Transcription

1 A Scenario-based Approach For Implementing Climate Adaptation On Public Conservation Lands

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3 Shared Focus Area

4 Funding - State Wildlife Grant Lead Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission Hired project coordinator Partner Peninsular Florida LCC Focus Climate change adaptation and conservation land management Time line July 2015 December 2016

5 Why do this project FWC has recognized that uncertainty in future conditions and changes in climate could affect the long-term success of current wildlife conservation strategies and wants to develop adaptation actions to reduce the potential impacts Sea level rise

6 Project site Big Bend region of Florida Shared focus area of PFLCC and SALCC The project will be conducted in 2 selected regions, each focused around an FWC Wildlife Management Area Big Bend WMA Chassahowitzka WMA Includes neighboring conservation lands NWRs State Parks State Forests Water Mgmt District Lands

7 Group discussions Brainstorming Breakout groups Main tool Scenario Planning

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9 Review current management goals Review Scenario Planning as a tool to address uncertainty and to help inform conservation efforts Identify and develop priority variables and information about threats to managed lands and barriers to management

10 Reviewed current management goals How they are categorized Is there something we are missing?

11 GOALS Acquisition Administration/Operations Climate Change Collaboration Cultural/Historical Educational/Outreach Forest Resource Management Habitat Restoration/Improvement Hunting/Fishing Increasing Funding Invasive Control Native, Listed or Rare Species Public Access/Recreation Research Soil Management Water Resource Management

12 NUMBER OF MANAGEMENT PLANS 10 Management Plan Goal Similarities GOALS TYPE

13 Nr Item 1 Sea level rise 2 Changes in weather patterns 3 Increased temperatures 4 Salt water intrusion 5 Air and water chemistry change 6 Increased storm intensities

14 Nr 1 Rising populations 2 Increased development Item 3 Cultural shift in how the public views wildlife: as shared resources become limited, the public will have less tolerance for wildlife/wildlife habitat 4 Human population shifts from coastal to inland 5 Increased water needs for population and agriculture demands 6 Politics affecting mgmt. decisions

15 Nr Item 1 Funding - unpredictable 2 Decreases in staff 3 inability to be flexible in procedures and policies to acquire and manage land 4 Management goals for agency/site-shift 5 Mandates to protect shorelines or other resources despite overwhelming threats of loss 6 Bureaucracy

16 Loss of coastal island forest habitat (dead palms, pines, cedar, etc.) along with expansion of salt marsh along the LSNWR coast - particularly in Levy County. Also hydric hammock on mainland coast - especially along Waccasassa Bay. Saltwater intrusion into Cedar Key water supply Movement of vegetative species (exotic or native) from southern Florida to our coastal lands (Cedar Key area) (Brazilian pepper, mangrove)

17 Review scenario planning variables Identify potential consequences based on scenarios, grouped by management activity Identify adaptation strategies

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19 Focus on scenarios that are: Relevant Divergent Plausible Challenging Use scenarios based on locally important variables (workshop 1) Nested variables = Sixteen possibilities available Select 3-4 to turn into narratives and planning tools Examine scenarios alongside management objectives

20 Sea Level Rise 0..7 Meters 2 Meter s Human Population Growth / Development 31 Million Residents Million Residents Business As Usual Planning Assumptions Proactive Decreased Rainfall Increased

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22 Scenario Exercise: How are they used? Goal(s) Climate Population Resource allocation

23 Primary Management Goal Category Consequences Acquisition Heightened need to acquire new lands as acres of property are altered or lost Price of land and new acquisitions increase Reduction in available corridor habitat Cultural & Historical Sites Increased flooding of coastal communities Site washouts lead to loss of coastal historic sites Decreased access to coastal cultural and historic sites Habitat Restoration & Mgmt. Increased risk of more frequent and intense wildfire Decreased ability to burn Increased vegetative mortality Hunting & Fishing Reduction in quail populations and hunting opportunity Reduction in boating access due to increasing losses in infrastructure Commercially important areas and activities experience decreased stocks of harvested fish, crabs, shrimp, clams and oysters

24 Refine Adaptation Strategies Regional Local Determine trigger points Identify monitoring needs

25 Adaptation Guide

26 Adaptation Guide One-stop product 1. Overview of predicted climate changes 2. Ecological consequences 3. Adaptation strategies Living document Update as new information becomes available: Downscaling Refined emission scenarios Case studies

27 Better informed land managers Identified/prioritized adaptation strategies Regional Local Monitoring Needs Trigger points for implementation Data Gaps Research Needs

28 Questions