ADAPTACLIMA Contribution for the Decision-Making Process. 1 2 th June

Transcription

1 ADAPTACLIMA Contribution for the Decision-Making Process at EPAL 1 2 th June

2 AGENDA EPAL s Water Supply System The decision-making process Adaptaclima EPAL Final remarks

3 EPAL s Water Supply System The decision-making process Adaptaclima EPAL Final remarks

4 WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM EPAL is a 144 years-old company, and serves more than ¼ of the Portuguese population. Asseiceira WTP Castelo de Bode Dam The water supply system is formed by assets whose value is over 800 M, including: - 2 Water Treatment Plants (WTP) km of Trunk Mains - 25 Chlorination Points - 41 Pumping Station - 42 Water Tanks km of Distribution Mains - 13 Underground abstractions Tagus River Water Intake and Valada Tejo WTP

5 EPAL s Water Supply System The decision-making process Adaptaclima EPAL Final remarks

6 THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Planning levels 3 levels of Asset Planning Short-term (Operational) planning SUSTAINABILITY Mid-term (Tactical) planning RISK COST Long-term (Strategic) planning LEVELS OF SERVICE PERFOR MANCE PROFITABILITY

7 THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Long-term Planning Water Supply System s Master Plan Turn point in Demand (2005) Demand / Increase in the system s capacity (2007) Change factors (Internal, External) Supply Balance surplus EPAL s response to change MORE INTEGRATED VISION Strategic Goals Reformulation To supply water of adequate quality, quantity and reliability, increasing EFFICIENCY, in a context of ADAPTATION to internal and external factors.

8 xxxxxxx x xxxxxxx x Business Sustainability compromised xxxx xxxxxxx xx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx x Business Profitability compromised xxxx xxxxxxx xxxxx xxxxxxxxe xx xxxxxx xx x xxxxxxx x x xxxxxxxx xxxxx xxxxxxx Lack of adequate Water Quality supplied Lack of adequate Water Quantity supplied xxxxxx xxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xx xxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxx xx Disruption in the water supply Reputation and trust compromised

9 THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Recent or on-going STUDIES in order TO BETTER UNDERSTAND / REDUCE THE RISK associated to one or more events 1. W-Smart 2. Underground sources Protection zones (Grandwater) 3. Superficial water sources Protection zones (protocol with UNL) 4. Contamination of C. Bode reservoir due to Panasqueira landslide (UNL) 5. Biodiversity in the surroundings of C. Bode Reservoir (Geota) 6. Seismic vulnerability of water tanks (protocol with IST) 7. Vulnerability of above ground trunk mains (Tetraplano and LEB) 8. Analysis and acquisition of diesel generators (EPAL) 9. Disposal, refurbishment and renewal of Alviela Aqueduct (EPAL and Coba) 10. Pipe bursts group (EPAL) 11. Water quality modelling in the distribution network (EPAL) Recent or on-going RISK ASSESSMENT EXERCISES associated to one or more events 1. Water Safety Plan (primary aim: to assure Water Quality considering events of different nature) 2. Capital Investment Plan (primary aim: to assure the Continuity of Supply considering Assets failure) 3. Master Plan (primary aim: to assure Water Quality and Availability at sources) Recent or on-going studies in order to better understand / reduce the risk associated to one or more events in the context of MEGA-TRENDS 1. Adaptaclima (FCUL): Climate, Land-Use and Demographic changes 2. Asset deterioration models (MIT; Cranfield) 12. Emergency Plans (EPAL) 13. Marketing campaigns (EPAL) 14. PSAT Programa de Segurança dos Activos Técnicos (EPAL, EDP, REN, REFER, PT, ) 15. ( )

10 xxxx Business Sustainability compromised xx xxx xxxxx 13 xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx Business Profitability compromised xxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxx xx xx xxx 7 5 xxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx Prxxxxxxxx xxx 8 xxxxxxxxx xxxxxx xx xxxx 14 xxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx Lack of adequate Water Quality supplied Lack of adequate Water Quantity supplied Disruption in the water supply Reputation and trust compromised

11 xxxxxxxxx xxx Business Sustainability compromised xxxxxxxxxx xxx xx 13 xxxxxxxxxx x Business Profitability compromised xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxx xx xx xx x 7 5 xxxx xx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxx 8 xxxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxx 14 xxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxx xxxxxxx x Lack of adequate Water Quality supplied Lack of adequate Water Quantity supplied Disruption in the water supply Reputation and trust compromised

12 xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx Business Sustainability compromised x 13 xxxxxxxxx Business Profitability compromised xxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxxx xx xx 7 5 xxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx x 8 xxxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxxxxx 14 xxxxxxx x xx xxxxxxx Lack of adequate Water Quality supplied NEXT MASTER PLAN S Lack of adequate Water Quantity supplied REVISION Disruption in the water supply Reputation and trust compromised

13 Likelihood THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Risk 1 Risk 2 Risk 3 Risk 4 Risk 6 Risk 9 Risk 8 Risk 7 Risk 5 Risk 11 Risk 10 (after Prpich et al., 2011) Consequence

14 Likelihood THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Risk 1 Risk 2 Risk 3 Risk 4 Risk 6 Risk 9 Risk 8 Risk 7 Risk 5 Risk 11 Risk 10 Consequence

15 THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Long-term Planning Water Supply System s Master Plan Handling megatrends how will the baseline set (t 0 )of risks move under future conditions of climate change, land use change, population change and asset deterioration at, for example, t 3, t 30 and t 50 years?

16 EPAL s Water Supply System The decision-making process Adaptaclima EPAL Final remarks

17 PROJECT OVERVIEW Global Climate Scenarios Global Socioeconomic Scenarios (SRES, IPCC) Regionalized Climate Scenarios (climate factors) Regionalized Socioeconomic Scenarios (non-climate factors) IMPACTS EVALUATION: Superficial and Underground Water Sources; Sea-level rise and salt intrusion ADAPTATION: Strategic options

18 PROJECT OVERVIEW Global Climate Scenarios Global Socioeconomic Scenarios (SRES, IPCC) Regionalized Climate Scenarios (climate factors) Regionalized Socioeconomic Scenarios (non-climate factors) IMPACTS EVALUATION: Superficial and Underground Water Sources; Sea-level rise and salt intrusion ADAPTATION: Strategic options

19 REGIONALIZED CLIMATE SCENARIOS Temperature and precipitation patterns Extreme events

20 REGIONALIZED CLIMATE SCENARIOS?? D (Downscaling)? (Pulquério e Garrett, 2011)

21 REGIONALIZED CLIMATE SCENARIOS -20,9% -7,6%?

22 PROJECT OVERVIEW Global Climate Scenarios Global Socioeconomic Scenarios (SRES, IPCC) Regionalized Climate Scenarios (climate factors) Regionalized Socioeconomic Scenarios (non-climate factors) IMPACTS EVALUATION: Superficial and Underground Water Sources; Sea-level rise and salt intrusion ADAPTATION: Strategic options

23 DEMOGRAPHIC AND LAND USE CHANGES Population concentration Agriculture and forest, Domestic consumption

24 Milhões DEMOGRAPHY Cenários de Evolução da População Nacional CIESIN - B2 CIESIN - A2? CIESIN - A1 e B1 INE - Central INE - Baixo INE - Elevado INE- Sem migrações É de considerar um aumento da população, sobretudo nas áreas litorais, e uma concentração nos grandes centros urbanos, de acordo com a tendência que tem vindo a verificar-se na distribuição da população portuguesa. LAND USE (a partir da classificação do CLC, 2000) Os cenários apontam para aumentos na produtividade agrícola e uma redução da área agrícola para produção de alimentos. ( ) essas parcelas estarão disponíveis para outros usos, como produção de biocombustíveis e florestas, bem como aumentos nas áreas urbanas e protegidas. Where? assumiu-se para todos os cenários que 20% da Europa se possa tornar área protegida até 2080, embora por diferentes razões: nos cenários económicos (A1, A2) deverão ser criadas áreas de lazer para uma população mais rica, enquanto nos cenários ambientais (B1, B2) será para fins de conservação da biodiversidade.

25 DEMOGRAPHIC AND LAND USE CHANGES?

26 PROJECT OVERVIEW Global Climate Scenarios Global Socioeconomic Scenarios (SRES, IPCC) Regionalized Climate Scenarios (climate factors) Regionalized Socioeconomic Scenarios (non-climate factors) IMPACTS EVALUATION: Superficial and Underground Water Sources; Sea-level rise and salt intrusion ADAPTATION: Strategic options

27 Quantitative methods precipitation runoff modelling water quality modelling sea level rise modelling Qualitative methods IMPACTS EVALUATION?? How to consider the synergetic effects of the modelled variables e.g. land-use evolution?

28 IMPACTS EVALUATION?

29 PROJECT OVERVIEW Global Climate Scenarios Global Socioeconomic Scenarios (SRES, IPCC) Regionalized Climate Scenarios (climate factors) Regionalized Socioeconomic Scenarios (non-climate factors) IMPACTS EVALUATION: Superficial and Underground Water Sources; Sea-level rise and salt intrusion ADAPTATION: Strategic options

30 ADAPTATION STRATEGIC OPTIONS Gradual changing phenomena - Ex: Precipitation, temperature WHEN to implement the adaptation measures (alternative water sources, water reuse, )? Extreme or sudden events - Ex: tornados, storms TRADE-OFF between low probability and catastrophic consequences (increase flexibility, shore protection, )? Link with overall Strategic Planning HOW WILL STRATEGIC RISKS DEVELOP IN THE CONTEXT OF THESE MEGA-TRENDS? HOW TO QUANTIFY AND INTEGRATE THE DIFFERENT DEGREES OF UNCERTAINTY (ELLIPSE SHAPE)

31 EPAL s Water Supply System The decision-making process Adaptaclima EPAL Final remark

32 FINAL REMARK Are we managing uncertainties in the right way? We re not certain