The Outlook for Energy:

Transcription

1 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 24 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout 215. This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading Factors Affecting Future Results in the Investors section of our website at This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.

2 Agenda This is ExxonMobil The Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 Global Fundamentals Meeting Growing Demand Transportation Residential and Commercial Industrial Electricity Generation Lowering Emissions Fulfilling Future Supply Q&As

3 This is ExxonMobil

4 215 Financial Results

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9 Global fundamentals

10 The world s demand for energy is driven by many factors, but the two biggest are population and economic growth Energy is fundamental to standards of living

11 The energy equation People living standards energy needs

12 Energy Fuels Human Development U.N. Human Development Index 213 Index 1. Norway Germany United States.75 Brazil Bangladesh India China.5 Nigeria Congo Source: United Nations, ExxonMobil estimates Energy Use per Capita (Thousand BTU/person/day)

13 Global Progress Drives Demand Population GDP Energy Demand Billion Trillion 21$ Quadrillion BTUs Energy Savings 6 3 Rest of World Key Growth India China OECD* *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries

14 25% increase in energy demand by 24. That s like adding another North and Latin America

15 Developing nations lead in GDP growth and living standard improvements.

16 Global GDP Shifts Toward Developing Nations 214 OECD* Rest of World Key Growth India China Mexico Brazil Nigeria Egypt Turkey Iran Saudi Arabia India Thailand China Indonesia South Africa $72 Trillion (21$) *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries

17 Global GDP Shifts Toward Developing Nations OECD* Rest of World Key Growth India China 2.% per year 3.4% 3.5% 5.5% 5.% $72 Trillion (21$) ~$15 Trillion (21$) *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries

18 Meeting Growing Demand

19 Global GDP Shifts Toward Developing Nations Energy Demand Transportatio n

20 Transportation

21 Close to 95 % of current transportation energy needs are met by oil Gasoline demand flattens as vehicle fuel economy improves rapidly Demand for diesel grows 45 percent as truck and marine needs expand 21

22 Transportation Demand Demand by Region MBDOE Sector Demand MBDOE Rail 4 Marine 2 5 Aviation Commercial Heavy Duty 1 U.S. 25 Light Duty OECD* China India Key Growth Rest of World *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries

23 Light Duty Vehicle Fuel Consumption Fleet by Type Million Average Vehicle Fuel Consumption On-Road Liters per 1 km Elec/Plug-in/Fuel Cell Hybrid Natural Gas & LPG Diesel Gasoline U.S. Europe Average Fleet

24 Residential and commercial

25 Residential/Commercial energy demand grows by about 25% Reflects rising populations and an ongoing shift of people from rural to urban settings 25

26 Residential/Commercial Outlook By Sector By Region By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs Other 125 Commercial 125 Rest of World Africa 1 Electricity India 75 China Biomass 5 Residential 5 5 Coal OECD 25 Gas Oil

27 Demand Rises for Durable Goods China Durable Goods Ownership Average Ownership per 1 Households ( ) Refrigerator Sales History and Forecast Units per 1 Households (22 222) Washing Machines Refrigerators Air Conditioners 12 1 Brazil U.S., Japan, Western Europe China 5 Computer 8 6 India Indonesia 25 4 Cars GDP per Capita (PPP$k) GDP per Capita (PPP$k) *Source: Freedonia Group, Inc., ExxonMobil Estimates

28 Industrial

29 Industrial demand increases by about 3% as need for manufactured goods rises Electricity and natural gas are increasingly the fuels of choice for manufacturing 29

30 Industrial Demand Industrial Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs 3 Paint 2 Plastics Fertilizer 1 Chemical Heavy Industry Energy Industry Other Liquid Fuels Steel Coal Agriculture Automobiles Lubricants Textiles Natural Gas Asphalt

31 Electricity generation

32 World will need about 65% more electricity, mainly driven by demand from non-oecd countries 32

33 Electricity Grows in Developing Economies Electricity Demand by Region Thousand TWh 4 Per Capita Demand MWh per person United States 3 Rest of World Key Growth India China OECD* United States India China Europe Key Growth *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries

34 Electricity Demand Continues to Surge By Sector Thousand TWh By Generation Type Share of TWh 4 Oil 24 3 Transportation Other Renewables Coal 2 Res/Comm Wind & Solar Industrial Nuclear Gas

35 Emissions

36 CO2 emissions will grow to 23, then decline. OECD declining trend already Economics and policies impact the fuel mix

37 CO 2 Policies 24 CO 2 Proxy Cost < 1 $/ton ~ 2 $/ton ~ 35 $/ton ~ 8 $/ton

38 Two Paths to CO 2 Reduction United States Generation Share Percent Germany Generation Share Percent CO 2 Intensity of Generation gco 2 /kwh delivered 1% Oil Other Renewables 1% 8 Wind & Solar 75% Nuclear 75% % Gas 5% 4 25% 25% 2 Coal % % United States Germany

39 Supply

40 Oil remains the world s primary fuel through 24 Gas will surpass coal as number two source of energy by 24

41 Global Demand 24 By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs 25.7% 24 Average Growth / Yr %.9% % 1 5.3% 2.9% 4.8% 1.3% Oil Gas Coal Biomass Nuclear Solar / Wind / Biofuels Hydro / Geo

42 Liquids

43 Liquids Supply Supply by Type MBDOE Crude and Condensate Resource* Trillion barrels of oil 12 Biofuels Other Liquids NGLs Other NGLs Tight Oil Oil Sands Oil Sands Deepwater Deepwater New Conventional C&C Development 4 3 Remaining Resource 4 Conventional Crude & Condensate Developed Conventional Crude & Condensate 2 1 Cumulative Production through * Source: IEA 24

44 Remaining Oil Resource Crude and Condensate (GBO) ~1,1 ~9 ~1, ~1 Russia/Caspian North America ~8 Europe ~4 Middle East ~2 ~4,5 Asia Pacific Latin America Africa Global Source: IEA

45 Liquids Trade Balance by Region MBDOE Other 45 Natural Gas Liquids Tight Oil Oil Sands Deepwater Conventional Crude & Condensate Demand North America Latin America Africa Europe Russia/ Caspian Middle East Asia Pacific

46 Natural gas grows more than any other energy source.

47 Global Natural Gas Supply and Demand Supply by Type BCFD 6 4 Unconventional Industrial 2 Conventional Electricity Generation

48 Gas Trade Balance by Region BCFD Unconventional Production Conventional Production Demand North America Latin America Africa Europe Russia/ Caspian Middle East Asia Pacific

49 Global LNG Supply & Demand Outlook MTA Future Projects Under Construction & FID Projects 2 1 Existing LNG Projects

50 Technology has the highest potential and greatest uncertainty.

51 Technology Helps Us Do More With Less Global Average Energy Intensity Thousand BTUs per dollar GDP (21$)

52 For more information, visit exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook or download the ExxonMobil app