UK Flood Foresight Project

Transcription

1 Context UK Flood Foresight Project Foresight Project aims Methodology Flood Risk Drivers UK Flood Foresight Project Future Risks (business as usual) Need to Align Flood Risk and Environmental 2004 Management (updated 2008 and on-going) Stakeholder Uptake and Impact of Flood Foresight on FRM Policy and Practice

2 The Flood Cycle Courtesy, HR Wallingford

3 Foresight Project Aims Long-term vision for future flood risks and their management. Cover all aspects, looking years ahead. Involve and engage all relevant Stakeholders. Provide a reliable evidence-base for decision makers. Supply the underpinning science for new policies

4 Foresight socio-economic futures and climate change scenarios Medium-high emissions Medium-low emissions High emissions and Low emissions Low emissions

5 Drivers Processes that change the state of the system Change in risk System state variables Sources rainfall sea level storm surges wave. heights etc. Pathways urban surfaces fields, drains channels flood storage flood defences floodplains Receptors communities homes industries Infrastructure resources ecosystems System analysis Risk Probability x consequences (economic, risk to life, social, natural environment etc) Responses Interventions that change the state of the system Change in risk

6 Driver group Driver SPR classification Climate change Catchment runoff Fluvial Systems and Processes Precipitation Temperature Urbanisation Rural land management Agricultural impacts Environmental regulation River morphology and sediment supply Source Source Drivers of Pathway Future Flood Pathway Risk Receptor Pathway Pathway Coastal processes Human behaviour Socioeconomics River vegetation and conveyance Waves Surges Relative sea level rise Coastal morphology and sediment supply Stakeholder behaviour Public attitudes and expectations Buildings and contents Urban impacts Infrastructure impacts Social impacts Science, engineering and technology Pathway anything Source Source that changes the Source state of the Pathway Pathway flooding system Receptor Receptor Receptor Receptor Receptor Receptor

7 Baseline Conclusions: unless we act now:- Future flooding and coastal erosion are very serious threats. They represent a major challenge to government and society. Business as usual is no longer an option

8 a clash between FRM and environmental objectives could lead to a 3-fold increase in flood risk in the 2050s, rising to a 4-fold increase in the 2080s River Vegetation and Conveyance Environmental Regulation River Morphology and Sediment Supply

9 Stakeholder Involvement Project champion: Sir David King, Chief Scientific Advisor to H M Government; Project steering panel: appointed by the Cabinet Office. Foresight team: leading academics, plus government administrators, scientists and practitioners. Key stakeholders: at national, regional and local levels. Independent experts and stakeholders: to challenge, debate, refine and accept methods and findings at Buy-in Workshops.

10 Taihu Basin IMAPCT: Scientific Evidence into Policy into Practice

11 Why might lessons learned from Flood Foresight be relevant and beneficial to the CRT Review? 1. Foresight does not predict or even forecast the future it shows how we can change the future. 2. Foresight demonstrates that Politicians, Policy Makers, and Practitioners will listen and act provided that our messages are clear and are supported by the best science available. 3. CRT Review merits the best possible science base and requires stakeholder Buy-in. 4. CRT Review is vital to the sustainable use of one of the world s great trans-national rivers. 5. CRT is a model for many other treaties around the world the significance of the Review is global.

12 Royal Geographical Society 2016 Back Award for Policy-relevant research