Material Flow Analysis for Sustainable Mobility in the Context of Renewable Energy until 2030

Transcription

1 Material Flow Analysis for Sustainable Mobility in the Context of Renewable Energy until 2030 Introducing the RENEWBILITY Project Uwe R. Fritsche Coordinator, Energy & Climate Division, Darmstadt Office Öko-Institut (Institute for applied ecology) presented at the European Sustainable Energy Week, Brussels, Feb. 1, 2008

2 Project Partners

3 Project Background Future mobility demand & supply is linked to sustainable energy policy (climate protection, efficiency, renewables) need for integrated view Sustainable mobility requires more than new technologies: demand-side options, innovative products of transport service providers, energy companies, car manufacturers, policy makers inclusive approach with stakeholders

4 Project Objectives renewbility develops analytical instrument to identify potentials and constraints of sustainable mobility, with emphasize on the demand-side show tradeoffs between renewable energy uses operate in close cooperation with relevant players Material flow analysis to quantify economic, environmental and employment effects of integrated mobility/energy scenarios

5 Material Flow Analysis Crude oil, natural as, coal, uranium, renewables (w/o biomass) Biofuel and H2 imports SRC, miscanthus, rape, maize... biowaste, manure, residual straw/ wood supply-side Results: Air + GHG emissions Resource + land use Economic costs Direct + indirect employment conversion: powerplants, refineries etc. Transport: train, truck... conversion: fermenter, gasifier, FT etc. disaggregated for national and global impacts Freight transport: airplane, ship, train, truck Person transport: Airplane, bus, car, train demandside Mobility demands for persons and freight

6 Key Project Features renewbility analyzes dynamically the life-cycles of mobility demands, including production and distribution, and full energy system Integrated scenario analysis is key for inclusive policies dealing with tradeoffs between electricity, heat, and transport uses of renewable energies Energy and transport efficiency (demand + supply side) are major options Measures are bundled and impacts quantified

7 Project Phases Phase I: from Oct to May 2008 Database and model development (supply & demand side); scenario work (base + 2 exploratory + sustainable ) of scenario group (stakeholders: industry, NGO, government) Phase II: from June 2008 to Sept further scenario work: renewable electricity for transport; development of sustainable transport policy for Germany; European outlook

8 Research Specifics Integrated analysis of national dynamics of mobility demand + supply options (renewables including imports) future technology development (learning curves) for all technologies all sectors in scenarios until 2030 analysis of human labor flows (direct + indirect employment) transparent, reviewed data, freely available

9 Project Work Packages

10 Technologies + Fuels Primary energy Energy carrier Infrastructure Power train gasoline coal crude oil natural gas biomass wind solar hydro geotherm. nuclear FT gasoline diesel FT diesel biodiesel ethanol methanol DME CNG LPG hydrogen electricity Gasous fuels Liquid fuels ICE and hybrid fuel cells and hybrid electric motor Source: Based on WBCSD 2004

11 Biomass Flows

12 Technology Database Energy Materials Transport processes technical data emission data cost data direct job data GEMIS database

13 Database: Vehicles 210 Fuel efficiency gains (compared to today % - 25% - 35% -Max.% Base Variant 1 Variant 2 Variant 3 Variant Year

14 Cost curves Max. V3 B V1 V Example of small otto ICE car, based on TNO (2006)

15 Modeling Demand Person transport Secondary analyses: effects of measures Freight transport Secondary analyses: effects of measures Buying behaviour: cars Microskopic simulation with spatial differentiation Buying behaviour: trucks Macroscopic demand model Agent-based demand model Differentiated total transport demand in Germany 2010, 2020, 2030 Material Flow Analysis

16 TAPAS Micro Model Travel - Activity Pattern Simulation An agent based, microscopic passenger transport model Population and structural data (work places, potential destinations etc.) Activity pattern Modal Choice Number and length of trips of the synthetic population per day and mode Verification of day plans by considering travel times consistent modelling of the transport demand of the area investigated Considering the individual spatial and traffic environment of every person (e.g. exclusion of multi usage of one car, modelling in line with the time and cost budgets) Suitable for numerous different scenarios by changing activity patterns, destination choice, modal choice and public transport service Outcome: knowledge about the influence of defined measures on a certain group of people in a certain area

17 VISEVA Macro Model Aggregated Passenger Transport Model calculation of transport demand with specific mobility indicators and structural data (working places, schools, shopping malls, access to public transport, etc.); not by individual trip chains separate calculation for individual homogenous groups (e.g. employees, students, retired people etc.) attribution to the net by input matrices per mode Evaluation of policy measures and their impact on changes in transport demand nationwide

18 Participatory Approach

19 Scientific Advisory Board Prof. Dr. Klaus Beckmann, difu Tilman Bracher, difu Dr. Uwe Kunert, DIW Berlin Prof. Dr. Stefan Pischinger, FEV Aachen Dr. Harry Lehmann, UBA Prof. Dr. Werner Rothengatter, Karlsruhe University Dr. Manfred Fischedick, Wuppertal-Institut Dr. Weert Canzler, WZB for Social Research

20 Scenario Group ADAC BMW Group BBE Federal Bioenergy Ass. BEE Renewable Energy Ass. BUND (FoE Germany) Dachser Daimler Deutsche Bahn E.ON German Energy Agency German Mail World Net IG of SME Mineral Oil Ass. Lufthansa Rhein-Main Verkehrsverbund Shell Germany Oil VZBV (Federal Consumer Ass.) VCD (Traffic Club Germany) Volkswagen German BP

21 Research Results Phase I scenario results: April 2008 final report + English summary: May 2008 German conference: June 2008 Phase II various workshops, including European level (late 2008 to early 2009) international conference June/July 2009 More info: