Energiewende in Germany targets, current status, cooperation and participation: a technological and social challenge

Transcription

1 Corvinius University REKK Energiewende in Germany targets, current status, cooperation and participation: a technological and social challenge Prof. Dr. Manfred Fischedick Vice President

2 The brief introduction

3 The mission of the Inter- and transdisciplinary sustainability research! The WI explores and develops models, strategies and instruments to support a sustainable development at local, national and international levels.! Sustainability research at the WI focuses on ecology and its relation to economy and society.! Our research analyses and initiates technological and social innovations that decouple economic growth from nature use. Scientific policy consulting body (think tank): no university Independent connecting point between basic science (universities) and policy/business!!

4 at a glance Legal and financial status President: Prof. Dr. Uwe Schneidewind Vice President: Prof. Dr. Manfred Fischedick Head of Administration: Brigitte Mutert Setting up: 1991 conducted by Prof. Dr. Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker (-2000), followed by Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke (-2008) Legal form: Ltd., Non-Profit-Organisation; Ownership: State of North Rhine-Westphalia Staff: ca. 200 members from all disciplines (plus approx. 50 PhD Students) Projects: projects per year Budget 2011: 3.4 Mio. Euro basic funds from the state of North Rhine-Westphalia (increase expected) > 9.0 Mio. Euro of third party funds (UN, EU, Ministries, Private Sector, NGOs) Common daughter with UNEP "#$%&'()*+#(,-..#$/0%( 1#023-0$/#$( UNEP Collaborating Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (CSCP)

5 Science Company Locations,1#$#(5#(0$#6(,-..#$/0%( 1#023-0$/#$( "#$%&'()*+#( 4!

6 Research Topics and Organisation Research Groups, Focus Subjects, Cross Cutting Subjects - cross problem oriented (integrative) approach Technologies & Infrastructures Market Actors Governance RG1 RG3 Future Energy and Mobility Structures Material Flows and Resource Management Integration of Climate-, Energy- and Resourcerelated Aspects Energy, Transport and Climate Policy Sustainable Production and Consumption RG2 RG4 Macro Meso Micro 7!

7 The German Energiewende targets and milestones

8 Sustainable energy system transition German energy concept (status July 2011) combines climate protection target with nuclear phase out strategy overall approach Emissionen in tausend Tonnen CO 2 eq?4<::4:::!?4;::4:::!?4:::4:::! >::4:::! =::4:::! <::4:::! GHG CO 2 UN: Kyoto 1992 EU: Manchester 1998 D: -21% by 2012 German government 1995 Kohl/Töpfer: -25% bis 2005 German government 2007/2009 Merkel/Gabriel: -40% bis 2020 (conditional) Merkel/Röttgen: -40% bis 2020 (without conditions) IPCC % by 2050 ;::4:::!"!"#$%&'(!)&*!&+$#&,(!&-).#/#,!*.0'.1-&'2!$#*3+2*444! " 444!532!2)#$#!.*!*6++!&'!+7'0!+7'0!8&(!27!079! :! Current emissions in 2009 (2010): 878 Mio. t CO2 eq (916 Mio. t CO2eq; ca. -23,5 % gg. 1990) IPCC % by 2050?@@:!?@@A!?@@=!?@@@! ;::;! ;::B! ;::>! ;:??! ;:?<! ;:?C! ;:;:! ;:;A! ;:;=! ;:;@! ;:A;! ;:AB! ;:A>! ;:<?! ;:<<! ;:<C! ;:B:! 8-+%#0$(.109#( :-/(.$:;$0<( 8

9 Sustainable energy system transition Current electricity generation mix in Germany how to susbtitute18% provided by nuclear power plants Brutto-Stromerzeugung nach Energieträgern 2011 Brutto-Stromerzeugung 2011 in Deutschland: 612 Mrd. Kilowattstunden* Steinkohle 19% Erdgas 14% Heizöl, Pumpspeicher und Sonstige 5% Wind 8% Erneuerbare 20% Biomasse 5% Braunkohle 25% Quellen: BDEW, AG Energiebilanzen Stand: 14. Dezember 2011 BDEW Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft e.v. Kernenergie 18% darunter ca. 17% EEG Wasser 3% Photovoltaik 3% Siedlungsabfälle 1% * vorläufig 9

10 Future energy system faces various challenges Sustainable energy system transition requires a multi-dimensional perspective - complex transition task! Reliability (energy supply on demand)! Broad access to energy (reduce energy poverty)! Security of energy supply (reduction of dependency from conventional fuels)! Compatibility with environment! Economic efficiency (guarantee competitiveness of consumer)! Compatibility with social concerns (affordable energy consumption)! Risk minimisation! Industrial impulses and employment effects! Minimal system vulnerability! Flexibility in terms of changing frame conditions (climate, demography, etc.) =1#$#(&9(':(9&%>#$(?-%%#/(/:(9:%>#(/1#(51:%#(9#/(:@(+10%%#';#9 10

11 Comparative scenario analysis to identify robust future requirements Long-term energy scenarios help to find orientation about future needs for fulfilment of Energiewende targets identification of robust paths HID.!;:?:! HID.!;:??! HIJ!;:?:!

12 Comparative scenario analysis to identify robust future requirements Long-term energy scenario indicate need for significant reduction of primary energy demand and substantial change in energy mix to fullfill Energiewende -targets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

13 Comparative scenario analysis to identify robust future requirements Long-term energy scenario indicate need for significant increase of renewable energy share (esp. in electricity generation) Climate protection without nuclear energy require high RE shares Wind energy as major national RE source BAU scenarios C!!

14 Sustainable energy system transition German energy concept (status July 2011) central milestones and targets reflect scenario results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

15 Energiewende does not start from the scratch achievements and current status (the case study of renewable energies)

16 Sustainable energy system transition Realistic approach or wishful thinking energy concept of German Government prolongs real development (dynamic) over the last 20 years Renewable energy sources and their share of the energy supply in Germany minimum ) Targets: 2020 Share in [%] Share of RES in total gross electricity consumption ) Share of RES in total energy consumption for heat 0.9 Transport sector ,2) Share of RES in fuel consumption for road traffic in transport sector (2) 4.5 Gross final energy ) Share of RES in total final energy consumption (electricity, heat, fuels) Share of RES in total primary energy consumption (3) 1) Sources: Targets of the German Government, Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG); Renewable Energy Sources Heat Act (EEWärmeG), EU-Directive 2009/28/EC; 2) Total consumption of engine fuels, excluding fuel in air traffic; 3) Calculated using efficiency method; source: Working Group on Energy Balances e.v. (AGEB); RES: Renewable Energy Sources; Source: BMU-KI III 1 according to Working Group on Renewable Energy-Statistics (AGEE-Stat); image: BMU / Brigitte Hiss; as at: July 2012; all figures provisional R73$-#]!HIJ!;:?;!

17 Sustainable energy system transition Photovoltaic showed highest increase rates over the last decade Installed capacity and energy supply from photovoltaic installations in Germany 26,000 24,000 22,000 Electricity supply [GWh] installed capacity [MWp] 2011: 25,039 MW p 26,000 24,000 22,000 20,000 20,000 18,000 18,000 16,000 16,000 [GWh] 14,000 12,000 14,000 12,000 [MW p ] 10,000 10,000 8,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,282 2,220 3,075 4,420 6,583 11,729 19, ,000 4,000 2,000 0 Source: BMU-KI III 1 according to Working Group on Renewable Energy-Statistics (AGEE-Stat); 1 GWh = 1 Mill. kwh; 1 MW = 1 Mill. Watt; image: BMU / Bernd Müller; as at: July 2012; all figures provisional R73$-#]!HIJ!;:?;!

18 Sustainable energy system transition Continuous political support as crucial success factor for substantial increase in renewable energy based on electricity generation Development of renewables-based electricity generation in Germany since , ,000 Hydropower Biomass * Wind energy Photovoltaics EEG: January ,000 EEG: April 2000 EEG: August 2004 [GWh] 80,000 60,000 40,000 StromEinspG: January March 2000 Amendment to BauGB: November , * Solid and liquid biomass, biogas, sewage and landfill gas, biogenic fraction of waste; electricity from geothermal energy not presented due to negligible quantities produced; 1 GWh = 1 Mill. kwh; StromEinspG: Act on the Sale of Electricity to the Grid; BauGB: Construction Code; EEG: Renewable Energy Sources Act; Source: BMU-KI III 1 according to Working Group on Renewable Energy-Statistics (AGEE-Stat); image: BMU / Christoph Edelhoff; as at: July 2012; all figures provisional R73$-#]!HIJ!;:?;!

19 Sustainable energy system transition Renewable energy market is already of significant relevance for German economy Investments in construction of renewable energy installations in Germany 2011 Total investments: approx Bill. EUR Hydropower 70 Mill. EUR Biomass (heat) Geothermal energy, ambient heat * Solar thermal energy Biomass (electricity) 880 Mill. EUR 960 Mill. EUR 1,050 Mill. EUR 2,000 Mill. EUR Wind energy Photovoltaics 2,950 Mill. EUR 15,000 Mill. EUR 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 [Mill. EUR] * Large plants and heat pumps; deviations in the totals are due to rounding; Source: BMU-KI III 1 according to the Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Wuerttemberg (ZSW); as at: July 2012; all figures provisional R73$-#]!HIJ!;:?;!

20 Sustainable energy system transition Renewable energy deployment corresponds to creation of new jobs significant socio-economic impact and acceptance factor Wind energy Biomass Solar energy Hydropower Geothermal energy, ambient heat Publicly assisted research and administration Employment in Germany's renewable energy sources sector 7,300 7,600 7,800 8,100 9,500 14,200 13,300 14,500 10,300 1,800 9,600 7,500 6,500 4,500 3,400 25,100 49,200 56, ,500 jobs 63, ,300 jobs 80,600 85, ,500 jobs 101,100 96, , , , , , , ,900 Increase: approx. 138 % 367,400 jobs 381,600 jobs ,000 40,000 60,000 80, , , ,000 Figures for 2010 and 2011 are provisional estimate; deviations in totals are due to rounding; Source: O Sullivan (DLR), Edler (DIW), Nieder (ZSW), Rüther (ZSW), Lehr (GWS), Peter (Prognos): "Bruttobeschäftigung durch erneuerbare Energien im Jahr 2011 eine erste Abschätzung", as at: March 2012; interim report of research project Kurz- und langfristige Auswirkungen des Ausbaus erneuerbarer Energien auf den deutschen Arbeitsmarkt ; image: BMU / Christoph Busse / transit R73$-#]!HIJ!;:?;!

21 Implementation of Energiewende is not a self-dynamic process current and future challenges

22 Implementation of Energiewende is not a self-dynamic process The sustainable transformation of an energy system is by far more than as a technological challenge! Technological challenge system integration of new technologies including associated infrastructure! Compatibility challenge cooperation between conventional and new technology options! Infrastructure challenge further development of appropriate infrastructures (e.g. smart and super smart grid)! Investment challenge Adapt to different investment charateristics (high capital cost, low variable costs)! Resource challenge avoid negative resource impacts (e.g. critical resources) as potential future bottlenecks! Stakeholder challenge persistence forces of established stakeholder! Policy challenge integrated regional, national and international policy initiative (multi-level approach)! Social challenge public perception and societal acceptance (incl. socio-economic impacts) 22

23 Implementation of Energiewende is not a self-dynamic process Energiewende requires a paradigm shift in the electricity sector high volatility of residual demand `3#++#]!^#2P#'28.-W+3'0*F+&'!;:?;!

24 Implementation of Energiewende is not a self-dynamic process Energiewende requires a paradigm shift in the electricity sector! Paradigm shift in the electricity sector: generation follows demand # generation follows demand + generation follows RE supply = generation and demand follow RE supply! H&*#a!%.,,+#!&',!F#&W!+7&,!*2$3-23$#*!,.*&FF#&$!*2#F!5(!*2#F!b!$#*3+6'0!.'!.'-$#&*.'0! #-7'7%.-!-)&++#'0#*!O7$!F78#$!F+&'2!8.2)!).0)!.'/#*2%#'2!-7*2*! Future power plants have to be more flexible (adjustment dynamic, start and stop dynamic)! Consumer change they behaviour and become part of the generation system through own facilities, e.g. small scale cogeneration plants (Prosumer)! Increasing interactions between energy infrastructures (electricity, gas, heat) enhance system complexity but lead to more flexibility (e.g. power to gas)! Security of energy (electricity) supply requires combination of measures

25 Implementation of Energiewende is not a self-dynamic process The resulting demand on extension of high-voltage grid as illustrative example for the infrastructure challenge 2)#!'##,!O7$!&FF$7_4!A4>::!W%!'#8! ).0)L/7+2&0#!+.'#*!Y.'-+3,.'0!<!\cMQL F78#$!+.'#*!8.2)!&!+#'0)2!7O!;4?::!W%[!! 2)#!'##,!O7$!$#2$71d'0!&FF$7_4!<4<::! W%!#_.*6'0!F78#$!2$&'*F7$2!+.'#*! 8.2)!-7$$#*F7',.'0!-7*2*!7O!+0M(JF(N$2M(W(! R7!O&$!#*2&5+.*)%#'2!7O!'#8!F78#$!+.'#*! O&-#*!*.0'.1-&'2!-7'*2$&.'2*!YO$7%!;::B!27! ;:?:!0$.,!#_2#'*.7'!,.,!'72!#_-##,!;:!W%! F#$!(#&$[4!! U,,.67'&+!#e7$2*!&$#!'#-#**&$(!O7$!2)#! -7''#-67'!7O!7e*)7$#!8.',!#'#$0(!F&$-*! 8.2)!*.%.+&$!$#*3+6'0!-7*2*4!

26 Implementation of Energiewende is not a self-dynamic process Besides general public support for the transformation process huge amount of reservations regerding real infrastructure projects appear Stand

27 Possible limitations for sustainable energy system transition Resulting costs for EEG increases private consumer price and result in growing reservations of consumer associations 30.0 Cost components for one kilowatt-hour of electricity for household consumers Production, distribution, transport KWKG 25.0 EEG Electricity tax Concession levy Sales tax [cent/kwh] Source: BMU-KI III 1 according to Institut für neue Energien Teltow (IfnE) and Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft e.v. (BDEW); Image: Deutsche Bundesbank; as at: July 2012; all figures provisional R73$-#]!HIJ!;:?;!

28 Possible limitations for sustainable energy system transition Linking renewable energies with energy efficiency measures as an appropriate option to stabilise electricity bill and increase consumer acceptance

29 Implementation of Energiewende requires pioneers and system solutions instead of exclusive technological perspective

30 Implementation of Energiewende is not a self-dynamic process Energiewende requires pioneers on different levels 100% renewable energy communities Area 12 % Popul. 8% 88 % 92% Political decision towards 100% renewable energy in more than 100 German municipalities or regions Main barriers are co-ordination and lack of funds Aim: sustainable and complete change towards renewable energy as well as reducing energy use Using regional sustainable energy sources to create regional welfare (income effects)

31 Implementation of Energiewende is not a self-dynamic process Energiewende requires pioneers on different levels Innovation City Ruhr combines climate protection with improved living standards and economic development Climate Protection Living Working CO2-savings of 50% in 10 years Energy Mobility City Quality of Life Win Win potential pursued: Combining environmental goals with improved living standards, economic potentials (new green jobs: last German coal mine will close 2018 in Bottrop high symbolic meaning)

32 The crucial role of experiments Niche applications play major role for the change of socio-technical regime and implementation of necessary transition pathways SV0<.%#X(( S'#$;I(9I9/#<(/$0'9&H:'( Demographic and Societal Developments (e.g. population growth, urbanization, individualization ) Market structure and rules Policy framework Investment environment Competence and experience 100% renewable regions, Public wind and solar parcs, Local manufacturing structures, System solutions combining RE and EE (real term experiments necessary) Source: Geels 2002, own examples 32

33 Implementation of Energiewende is not a self-dynamic process Energiewende requires a common approach system solutions instead of single technological contributions as basis for real-term experiments technological innovations social innovations - Regulation - Business models - Participatory elements - Sustainable consumption patterns - Industrial networks - New functionalities and service functions of products - etc. system innovations innovative infrastructure solutions

34 Energiewende as preparation for growing global future markets

35 Energiewende as basis for future (sustainable) market opportunities Increasing demand on efficiency and renewable energy technologies also on the global scale (IEA World Energy Outlook 450 ppm scenario) Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2010!4!

36 Energiewende as basis for future (sustainable) market opportunities Increasing demand on efficiency and renewable energy technologies also on the global scale - global future markets and investment needs Source: WBGU 2012!7!

37 Energiewende as basis for future (sustainable) market opportunities German companies with currently high world market shares can start from a pole position but how to maintain the position (innovation dynamic required) /0& '"($)*+#,-. /2& '"($)*+#,-.!"#$ %%&!"#$ %1& Quelle: Roland Berger Quelle: Roland Berger 2012!Y!

38 Implementation of Energiewende is not a self-dynamic process Energiewende requires as such but also for achieving export opportunities innovation dynamic, broad stakeholder contributions, new cooperation schemes R73$-#]!V3)+%&''a!U$'7+,!;::?!

39 Implementation of Energiewende is not a self-dynamic process CleanTechNRW as example for new cooperation scheme: cross stakeholder activities and innovative innovation approach across interfaces of branches R73$-#]!Q+#&'f#-)^ND!;:??!

40 Energiewende as basis for future (sustainable) market opportunities Clean (energy) technologies have the potential to become more and more the leading pillar for the German employment market Quelle: Marketbuzz 2010 ZF!

41 Energiewende as basis for future (sustainable) market opportunities Value chain approach helps to strengthen market chances: regional cluster and cooperation networks in Baden-Württemberg as supporting element (example) Materials Components Project development, engineering and construction Operation and maintenance Manfucturer and provider of Turnkey Systems Linear Fresnel Technology Fully automated production lines to manufature compoentents of the solar field Manfucturer and provieder of heat storage for central receiver technology Manfucturer and provieder of automated production lines for heliostats General contractor and developer of Turnkey CSP systems Project development, engineering, procurement, constrution, commissioning and transfer Planning and consulting company Project development, engineering and construction, Operation and Consulting Technology developer parabolic trough, Dish Stirling, Towers and heliostats for central receivers Quality management, construction supervision, commissioning and consulting 41

42 Energiewende and the role of the scientific community

43 Implementation of Energiewende is not a self-dynamic process Science is requested to contribute to energy system transition - new self understanding of science needed: enabling transitions (transformative science) Understanding the System Policies Economy Society Technology Infra- structure Climate Resources Landuse Enabling Transitions Multilevel Transition- Cycle Learning & Up-scaling Evaluating, monitoring and learning for large-scale diffusion Mobilizing actors and executing projects and experiments Experiments Problem - Problem assessment, establishment and further development of the transition arena Developing Sustainability visions, concrete concepts and transition agendas Development Experiments Assessment Vision - Transitions to what? Defining Targets Land Use Climate Global Equity Resources Wealth System-Knowledge (Understanding socio-technical systems in their natural environment) Transformation- Knowledge (Enabling complex societal transitions) Target-Knowledge (Defining socio-ecological targets for a sustainable world: identification of trade off s and synergies) R73$-#]!Q+#&'f#-)^ND!;:??!

44 Thank you very much for your attention!