Emission ceilings acidification and continental air pollution Report of the Netherlands

Transcription

1 Emission ceilings acidification and continental air pollution Report of the Netherlands

2 Emission ceilings acidification and continental air pollution Report of the Netherlands 2002

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4 Contents Summary 05 1 Introduction 09 2 Emissions SO NO X NH VOC Fine particulate matter 23 3 Environmental quality Health Nature 33 4 Conclusions Emissions Environmental quality Research 41 Annex: Reviews of the Gothenburg protocol and the NEC Directive 43 1 Gothenburg Protocol 43 2 NEC Directive 45 3 RAINS model 46

5 04 Shipping is the least polluting form of transport on a per tonne of freight basis. On the other hand it has the highest emissions per tonne of fuel used.

6 05 Summary Directive 2001/81/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2001 on national emission ceilings for certain atmospheric pollutants (hereafter referred to as the NEC Directive) requires member states to report by 31 December 2002 on how they intend to implement their national emission ceilings for The emission ceilings are intended to attain certain levels of environmental quality for the protection of human health and nature. The environmental quality levels for 2010 represent interim objectives on the path towards sustainable levels in the longer term. This document comprises the report of the Netherlands as required by the EU. An evaluation was made of the objectives of the Dutch Acidification and Continental Air Pollution theme, in part to analyse how the Netherlands can meet its emission ceilings. This evaluation was completed in 2001, and led to the inclusion of new national emissions objectives, emissions targets and environmental quality objectives in the Fourth National Environmental Policy Plan (NEPP4). This report looks at how the Netherlands can meet its international emission obligations from the perspective of Dutch policy on acidification and continental air pollution (the NEPP4 objectives). This report will be sent not only to the European Commission but also, by way of information, to the House of Representatives of the Dutch Parliament. The report shows that policy agreed to date will not be sufficient to bring emissions within the ceilings. Additional policy will therefore be necessary. The present report considers the measures needed to bridge this gap so that the international emission ceilings and the national objectives can be met. The purpose of this report is not to actually set new policies. Decisions will be made in 2003 on how the emission ceilings in the NEC Directive will be met, based on in-depth studies and consultations with the target groups. This process will commence shortly and will last until the end of 2003 when an Implementation Memorandum Emission Ceilings for Acidification and Continental Air Pollution 2003 will be drawn up. This Implementation Memorandum 2003 will be sent both to the European Commission and the House of Representatives of the Dutch Parliament. There is still a great deal of work to be done on ensuring that the necessary instruments (legislation and implementing regulations, covenants, etc.) are in place and the additional measures are implemented. Table 1 Emissions for 1990 and 2000, forecast emissions in 2010 after implementation of agreed policy, forecast emissions including additional measures, the emission ceilings in the NEC Directive and the NEPP4 objectives for the Netherlands (ktonnes/year) Forecast Prognose NEC- NEPP4- excl. incl. Direc- objecextra extra tive) a) tive mea- measures d) sures SO NO x NH c) VOC (155) b) a) The emission ceilings for the Netherlands in the UN/ECE Gothenburg Protocol are equal to those in the NEC Directive for SO 2 and NH 3 and 6 ktonnes higher for NO x and for VOC. b) The lower value of 155 ktonnes/year will apply if EU directives are implemented for mopeds, scooters and motorcycles and for solvent-based products such as paints and coatings, adhesives, cosmetics, etc. c) This figure is 5 ktonnes higher than the forecast in the Milieubalans (RIVM Environmental Balance ) The difference is due to the inclusion in this report of the NH 3 emissions from traffic. d) The reduction in NO x emissions as a result of the introduction of NO x emissions trading for large industrial sources is included in this forecast. The RIVM was asked to calculate for this report the results of the policy agreed to date in terms of the emissions and the environmental quality. It was also asked to do the same for a set of 12 (groups of) planned measures and options for additional measures, as included in the Memorandum Same values, new forms (see box). In estimating the potential reduction the RIVM disregarded, at the request of DGM (Directorate- General for Environmental Protection of the Dutch Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment), the issue of whether the measures are socially acceptable or implementable. These criteria were applied by the Ministry after the RIVM had made its calculations. As a result, adjustments were made in two areas to the potential emission reductions calculated by RIVM. Firstly, policy options 5 (kilometre-based charge for cars and heavy goods vehicles and reduction in speed limit) and 6 (stack gas NO x removal for maritime shipping and shore-based

7 06 generators in Dutch ports) were not included. And secondly, the reductions estimated by the RIVM were scaled down for a number of measures, because it seemed unlikely that the potential emission reductions could be achieved in full by As a result the emissions reductions presented in this report for the additional measures are lower than those presented by the RIVM in its report (Milieu- en Natuureffecten Strategisch Akkoord CDA, VVD, LPF) on the calculated environmental impact of the policy agreement made between the coalition partners of the new government. Table 1 takes account of calculations of emissions performed by the RIVM (Netherlands Environmental Agency) on the basis of a policy evaluation. The table shows that, for each of the pollutants, the policy adopted to date is insufficient to bring emissions within the ceilings specified in the NEC Directive or the NEPP4 objectives. Additional measures will therefore be necessary. The additional measures considered in this report are forecast to bring the emissions of three of the pollutants within the NEC Directive ceiling, but the NO x emissions will miss the ceiling by 10 ktonnes. The accelerated introduction of the EURO 5 standards by the EU would help the Netherlands to meet its NO x ceiling. The forecast emissions based on policy already adopted are slightly above the NH 3 emission ceiling. However after allowance is made for measures currently planned, emissions will be brought within the ceiling. In the case of VOC the measures considered only just bring emissions within the ceiling. An EU VOC product directive which regulates all the main household products and tightens the emission standards for mopeds, scooters and motorcycles would be needed to ensure that the Netherlands can comply with its VOC ceiling. SO 2 is the only pollutant for which the additional measures will bring the 2010 emissions within the NEPP4 objective. ozone. The fact that (serious) effects are nevertheless ascribed to ozone is attributable to the fact that there is no safe threshold below which the health effects are nil. The same applies to fine particulate matter. As far as NO 2 is concerned, exceedances of the limit values may still be occurring in 2010 and people may still be being exposed to concentrations in excess of the limit value. This is partly as a result of the reductions being achieved for NO x. The EU Directive envisages that the remaining exceedances of the NO 2 limit value can be dealt with by means of local measures. When the health risks to the population are quantified using the actual exposure and the most recent doseresponse data for the Netherlands, it can be seen that that the risks related to PM 10 will gradually decline and that ozone-related risks will change little. There will be a reduction in the excess deposition of acidifying agents and nitrogen to natural ecosystems and habitats. Because of the very high deposition rates from which we are starting, these reductions will only have a limited impact in terms of the percentage of the area of such lands with full protection from excessive acid and nitrogen deposition for the Netherlands as a whole. However, the reduction in the excess deposition is very large, and this is likely to lead to an increasing variety of flora and fauna (biodiversity). In the West and North of the Netherlands the percentage of ecosystems protected will reach 50-60%. The deposition objectives of the NEPP4 all come within reach. The same does not apply to all the interim environmental quality objectives of the NEC Directive for the Netherlands. The NEC Directive sets an objective of reducing by 50% the area over which sustainable levels of acid deposition are exceeded in 2010 relative to This environmental quality objective of the NEC Directive will not be achieved. In % of the area will be protected compared with less than 10% in Table 2 shows the results of the environmental quality calculations carried out by the RIVM. The greatest threat to health arises from ozone and fine particulate matter. It is estimated that exposure to these pollutants will in 2010 result in the premature death of several thousand people in the Netherlands. The entire population will be exposed to concentrations of fine particulate matter in excess of the indicative limit value for We have already reached a situation where no-one is any longer exposed to concentrations in excess of the guide value for

8 07 Table 2 Calculated a) exposure of the Dutch population to concentrations greater than the limit values for 2010, the most serious health effects and (excess) exposure of ecosystems in the Netherlands Forecast Forecast NEPP4 excl. extra incl. 12 emission measures measures objective DGM d) HEALTH Population exposed b) NO 2, annual mean conc. 40 µg/m mill. 0.4 mill. 3, O 3, 25 days 10.8 mill PM 10, 20 µg/m mill mill mill mill. Most serious health effects O 3, premature death PM 10, premature death PM 10, hospitalisation NATURE Acid deposition Mean (mol/ha.yr) c) Total excess deposition (Mmol/year) Percentage protection Nitrogen deposition Mean (mol/ha.yr) c) Total excess deposition (Mmol/year) Percentage protection Ozone Excess exposure (AOT40, µg/m 3.hr) 18,000 7,000 5,700 6,000 6,000 a) The forecast concentrations, depositions, exposures and effects have been calculated on the basis of the long-term mean meteorology. Where the actual meteorology is different the figures will work out differently. In the last few years, for example, actual ozone concentrations have been significantly lower. b) These are the numbers exposed to the background concentration. Those living next to motorways and in busy streets in towns will experience higher concentrations. It has been estimated, for example, that the number of people living next to motorways exposed to an annual mean NO 2 concentration of more than 40 µg/m 3 in 2001 needs to be increased by 0.2 million to allow for this effect. c) The objectives for acid deposition and nitrogen deposition have been recalculated to allow for improved estimates of emissions and depositions. The deposition objectives were calculated from the NEPP4 emissions objectives and are interim objectives on the way towards an ultimate situation in which 95% of ecosystems in the Netherlands are completely protected (NEPP4, pp ). d) These figures are based on estimated emissions allowing for the full introduction of the 12 (sets of) measures as indicated by DGM. The difference with the emissions as forecasted inclusive of extra measures for SO 2, NO x, NH 3 and VOC is 2,16, 10 and -5 ktonnes respectively.

9 8 The 12 (groups of) measures for which the RIVM was asked to calculate the possible emission reductions and their effects on human health and ecosystems in the Netherlands 1. Implement action plan for abating SO 2 emissions from industry, the energy sector and refineries. 2. Reduction sulphur content of fuels for mobile machinery, tractors and diesel locomotives. 3. Reduction NO x emissions from inland waterway shipping. 4. Euro 4/Euro 5 tax incentives for heavy goods vehicles. 5. Non-technical measures for traffic (kilometre-based tax for cars and heavy goods vehicles, speed limit reduction). 6. Reduction NO x emissions from maritime shipping and shore-based generators in Dutch ports. 7. Introduce NO x emissions trading for large facilities in industry, the energy sector, refineries and the waste processing sector. 8. Tighten the Emission Limits (Combustion Plants) Decree and the Dutch Emission Guidelines for gas engines and other combustion plants. 9. Tighten the Heating Equipment (Type approval) Decree and increase the percentage of High- Efficiency combi-boilers. 10. Implement VOC reduction plan or introduce VOC emissions trading for industry, the energy sector and refineries. 11. EU VOC Products Directive. 12. Additional measures to reduce ammonia in agriculture (incorporation of manure into the soil, modify cattle feed, measures in dairy stalls) The European Commission is preparing a directive to reduce VOC emissions from paints. European measures are also needed for other consumer products such as cosmetics, car products, cleaning products and adhesives.

10 9 1. Introduction Emission ceilings After the UN/ECE Gothenburg Protocol 1 to the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution was signed on 1 December 1999, the EU agreed national emission ceilings for sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), ammonia (NH 3 ) and volatile organic compounds (VOC) for the year 2010 (see Table 1.1). These emission ceilings are included in the National Emission Ceilings Directive 2 (NEC Directive). Report to the European Commission The NEC Directive requires member states to draw up national programmes in order to achieve the national emission ceilings in the Directive by Member states are required to report on their 2001 emissions no later than 31 December 2002, forecast emissions for 2010 and the national programmes. The national programmes shall include information on adopted and envisaged policies and measures and quantified estimates of the effect of these policies and measures on emissions of the pollutants in This document is the Dutch report to the European Commission and the European Environment Agency, as required under the NEC Directive. With the document also the Netherlands Parliament is informed of progress in implementing the international emission ceilings and the national NEPP4 objectives. On the basis of policy adopted to date (i.e. up to mid-2002) these emission ceilings and objectives will not be achieved. The present report considers how this gap can be bridged so that the international emission ceilings and the national objectives can be met. This document will not therefore actually adopt any new policies. The government will make decisions in this regard in 2003 and will submit its proposals to Parliament in an, Implementation Memorandum Emission Ceilings for Acidification and Continental Air Pollution The 4C project In order to put together this report, the 4C project (Four Ceilings, Foresee) was devised. An inventory was made of policy already adopted, planned policy and possible further policy options. The RIVM was then asked to calculate the effects of a package of 12 (groups of) planned and optional measures (see box) on the emissions and on environmental quality. The results of the RIVM calculations were used to predict whether it will be possible with the help of additional policies to abate the emissions in 2010 to below the emission ceilings in the NEC Directive. Table 1.1 Emissions for 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2001, forecast emissions in 2010 after implementation of agreed policy, the emission ceilings of the Gothenburg Protocol and the National Emission Ceilings (NEC) Directive and the NEPP4 objectives for the Netherlands (ktonnes/year) RIVM Gothenburg NEC NEPP4 Forecast a) Protocol Directive objective SO NO x NH VOC (155) b) a) Forecast made by the RIVM for this report, based on the Reference Scenario, and calculations carried out for the Parliament considering the issue of ammonia in late 2001 / early The NH 3 emissions are 5 ktonnes higher than given in the 2002 Milieubalans (Environmental Balance). The difference was caused by the lack of an estimate of ammonia emissions from traffic. In 2000 these emissions were estimated by the RIVM to be 3 ktonnes. b) The lower value of 155 ktonnes/year will apply if directives are implemented in the EU for mopeds, scooters and motorcycles and for solvent-based products such as paints and coatings, adhesives, cosmetics, etc. 1 The procedure for ratifying the Gothenburg Protocol has not yet been completed. On receipt of the advice of the Council of State, the consent of Parliament will be sought for the ratification of the Protocol. This is expected in May Directive 2001/81/EC of the European Parliament and the Council of 23 October 2001 concerning national emission ceilings for certain pollutants, OJ L309/22, 27 November 2001.

11 10 The 12 (groups of) measures for which the RIVM was asked to calculate the possible emission reductions 3 and their effects on human health and ecosystems 4 in the Netherlands 1. Implement action plan for abating SO 2 emissions from industry, the energy sector and refineries. 2. Reduction sulphur content of fuels for mobile machinery, tractors and diesel locomotives. 3. Reduction NO x emissions from inland waterway shipping. 4. Euro 4/Euro 5 tax incentives for heavy goods vehicles. 5. Non-technical measures for traffic (kilometre-based tax for cars and heavy goods vehicles, speed limit reduction). 6. Reduction NO x emissions from maritime shipping and shore-based generators in Dutch ports. 7. Introduce NO x emissions trading for large facilities in industry, the energy sector, refineries and the waste processing sector. 8. Tighten the Emission Limits (Combustion Plants) Decree and the Dutch Emission Guidelines for gas engines and other combustion plants. 9. Tighten the Heating Equipment (Type approval) Decree and increase the percentage of High- Efficiency combiboilers. 10. Implement VOC reduction plan or introduce VOC emissions trading for industry, the energy sector and refineries. 11. EU VOC Products Directive. 12. Additional measures to reduce ammonia in agriculture (incorporation of manure into the soil, modify cattle feed, measures in dairy stalls) Structure of report This report is intended not only for the European Commission but also for the Netherlands Parliament. Its scope is therefore rather broader than would be strictly necessary if its sole purpose were to report to the European Commission on the NEC Directive. The report is structured as follows. Chapter 2 (Emissions) begins by explaining briefly how, partly in response to the Gothenburg Protocol and the NEC Directive, new objectives and targets for the Netherlands were formulated for the acidification and continental air pollution theme. These objectives and targets, which were included in the NEPP4, serve as benchmarks in looking at the emissions resulting from policy already agreed and the extent to which these emissions could be reduced if extra measures are taken. Chapter 3 looks at the expected environmental quality and the way it would be affected by the package of 12 measures. The environmental quality is of course directly linked with the emissions, and affects the health of people and the quality of nature. The environmental quality is compared with the environmental quality objectives set in the NEPP4 in relation to human health and nature, and the environmental quality objectives in the NEC Directive. Chapter 4 summarises the legislation, covenants and other policy instruments planned and already being implemented and which are analysed in this report. The chapter also draws a number of conclusions with regard to the environmental quality and further research needed. An Annex is included to inform the Netherlands Parliament of the forthcoming evaluation of European air pollution policy. It considers the reviews of the Gothenburg Protocol and the NEC Directive due in 2004/2005. These reviews are already actively being prepared. The emissions requirements will be evaluated in these reviews, and will have regard to the desirability of reaching the NEC environmental quality objectives for The ECE and the EU are collaborating closely together to extend the existing approach to air pollution in Europe, with its focus on cost-effectiveness, to include fine particulate matter and climate change. 3 Potentieel effect op emissie SO 2 NO x, NH 3, VOS en PM 10 en kosten van door DGM aangedragen beleidsopties (Potential effect of policy options suggested by DGM on the emissions of SO 2 NO x, NH 3, VOS en PM 10, and their costs), RIVM report (Dutch) no , ( 4 Gezondheids- en natuureffecten van verschillende milieuambities in 2010 (Health and ecosystem effects of different environmental ambitions, RIVM report (Dutch) no , (

12 11 2. Emissions In this chapter we consider the expected emissions of the various pollutants on the basis of policy already agreed and the reduction that is likely to be achieved towards meeting the NEC ceilings through planned and other possible measures. We shall also consider to what extent the various target groups are on course to meet their targets (Sections ). We shall begin, however, by looking briefly at the NEPP4 emissions objectives and targets, the Policy overview of the theme acidification and continental air pollution, the recent Memorandum Same values, new forms: Environmental policy and the consequences of the new guidelines on the international reporting of emissions. Emission ceilings, emissions objectives and targets Well before the Netherlands committed itself, through the Gothenburg Protocol and the NEC Directive, to international emissions ceilings for 2010, it embarked on an evaluation of its acidification objectives. One of the purposes of this evaluation was to consider what commitments could be undertaken at the international level. The evaluation also examined the steps the Netherlands would have to take to meet these commitments. In order to ensure that the mandatory international ceilings could definitely be met, a safety margin was incorporated in the emission objectives. The national emissions objectives in the NEPP4 were therefore set at a level 10% below the international emission ceilings. The national emissions objective for NH 3 was set at a level more than 10% below the international emission ceiling, because the deposition rate for this substance after it is emitted is relatively high compared with other acidifying and eutrophying air pollutants, and it therefore causes the most damage to ecosystems in the Netherlands. The overall emissions objectives were disaggregated to the target group level, to give emissions targets (see Table 2.1). The emissions objectives and the targets for 2010 are included in the NEPP4. Unlike the emission ceilings in the Gothenburg Protocol and the NEC Directive, which are mandatory, the NEPP4 objectives and targets are objectives which the parties have to endeavour to meet. Policy overview The NEPP4 could not of course give all the background to the evaluation of the acidification objectives and the new objectives for the theme acidification and continental air pollution. This was the purpose of the Policy overview of the theme acidifica Table 2.1 Emissions targets by target group for 2010 (ktonnes) for the acidification and continental air pollution theme SO 2 NO x NH 3 VOS Industry 2 Energy } 30 } 65 Refineries } 60 Households (25) Services and Construction (23) Agriculture Transport (45) Total a) 100 b) 163(155) c) a) For the agriculture and services and construction target groups, policy is aimed at broadly halving emissions relative to their 1995 level. The NO x emissions for these target groups may have been underestimated, and will be recalculated. This could result in a total target for these two groups of up to 14 ktonnes instead of the present 9 ktonnes. b) The NH 3 objective may need to be corrected as a result of research being undertaken into the NH 3 gap. The NH 3 emissions from traffic are subject to further research. c) In order to meet this VOC objective, EU directives for products containing VOC (paints and coatings, adhesives, cosmetics, etc.) and for motorcycles, scooters and mopeds will be needed. In the absence of such directives the targets for households, services and construction, and transport will be 26, 26 and 49 ktonnes respectively, compared with 25, 23 and 45 ktonnes if directives are enacted. The VOC target for the industry, refineries and energy sectors has been set at 60 ktonnes. The evaluation of the VOC emissions targets may result in a target of at most 65 ktonnes. tion and continental air pollution: Towards sustainable levels for human health and nature 5, published in October Same values, new forms On 4 November 2002 the State Secretary of the Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment presented the memorandum Same values, new forms: environmental policy , on behalf of the various Ministers/State Secretaries responsible for the NEPP4, to the House of Representatives. In this document the government indicated the actions it intends to carry out during the coming years to fulfil its environmental 5 (in Dutch) Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment 17529/187

13 12 ambitions within the framework of the Coalition Agreement of this government. The Memorandum also contains the government s response to the Milieubalans In this Milieubalans the RIVM concluded that the policy so far adopted was not sufficient to achieve the emission ceilings for SO 2, NO x, and VOC for 2010 laid down in the EU/NEC Directive. The ceiling for NH 3 looks attainable. Existing policy is also insufficient to meet the EU air quality limit values for NO 2 and fine particulate matter everywhere in the Netherlands. The RIVM 7 considers that the agreements set forth in the Coalition Agreement have little effect on the forecasts for acidifying emissions in The effects of many of the measures, such as the withdrawal of the kilometre-based charge and the postponement of the closure of the Borssele atomic power station, largely cancel each other out. Additional policy needs to be formulated for all 4 NEC Directive pollutants. In December 2002 the government will publish a review of possible further measures to meet the emission ceilings: this document Emission ceilings acidification and continental air pollution: Report of the Netherlands In 2003 the government will decide on the measures it intends to adopt. Its decisions will be submitted to Parliament in the form of an Implementation Memorandum Emission Ceilings for Acidification and Continental Air Pollution The government also indicated in the memorandum Same values, new forms that it would be looking again at how the emission objectives are distributed between the various target groups. Guidelines for reporting emissions The RIVM, the CBS and TNO have long been reporting emissions in the Netherlands using the Netherlands territory method. This involves identifying all emissions from Netherlands territory and summing them. There is a logic to this approach in that these are the emissions which can be influenced by the Netherlands. They are also the emissions which, together with transboundary air pollution and natural background levels, determine Dutch air quality and deposition. International reporting needs to conform to internationally agreed guidelines. International agreement was recently achieved on harmonised methods of reporting emissions of acidifying substances, continental air pollutants and the gases responsible for climate change. There are a number of differences between the emissions calculated according to the Netherlands territory method and the emissions based on the international guidelines in the transport sector, particularly for maritime shipping in inland waters, but also for air transport and inland waterway shipping. The main difference is that according to the international guidelines the emissions from maritime shipping are not included in the national totals. This is particularly important for SO 2 and NO x, because maritime shipping was included in the national NEPP4 objectives and the disaggregated figures for the target groups. In the Policy overview, the emissions from maritime shipping for SO 2 and NO x for 2010 were estimated to be 9 and 27 ktonnes respectively. This would seem to constitute grounds for revising the targets for SO 2 and NO x. This will only be done next year, however, in the 2003 Implementation Memorandum, as announced in Same values, new forms. The emissions, forecasts and targets which appear in this report are all based on the Netherlands territory method. During the coming year, a study will be made of the precise differences between the Netherlands territory method and the international guidelines. The intention is that the new internationally accepted guidelines for emissions inventories will be introduced in the Netherlands in The changes to emissions inventories next year will involve removing the emissions from maritime shipping. If as a result other sources will be allowed to increase correspondingly, pollutant concentrations and deposition rates in the Netherlands will increase. This will mean greater damage to human health and to ecosystems. Also, EU quality standards will be more difficult to achieve. Discrepancies with the RIVM calculations In Sections 2.1 to 2.5 we shall look to see to what extent the target groups are on course to meet their targets for each pollutant. Use has been made for this purpose of calculations by the RIVM of the expected reductions resulting from a package of measures (see box, Chapter 1) specified by DGM (Directorate-General for Environmental Protection of the Dutch Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment). The reductions calculated for two of the options in this package, i.e. option 5 (non-technical traffic measures) and option 6 (reduction in emissions from maritime shipping) have not been included. The reason for omitting option 5 is that it is at this moment 6 RIVM, ISBN , Bilthoven, RIVM: Beoordeling Strategisch Akkoord CDA, VVD en LPF, 2002

14 13 uncertain how matters in regard to non-technical traffic measures (kilometre-based charges, speed limit of 100 km/hr and kilometre-based charge for goods traffic on the German model) will develop. The reasons for excluding the calculated reductions for maritime shipping are an initiative by the European Commission to tackle the use of high-sulphur fuels inshore and in harbours, and the fact that with effect from next year a large proportion of the emissions from maritime shipping will not be included in Dutch emissions. There are a number of other measures, particularly for NO x and VOC, which involve ambitious, though technically feasible, reductions in emissions, for which the RIVM assumed replacement of all existing installations by It seems unlikely that these large cuts in emissions can be achieved in full. For these two pollutants a lower limit (maximum reduction) and an upper limit (minimum reduction) have therefore been assumed for the emissions. The RIVM did not make a forecast of the NH 3 emissions for traffic. The forecast emissions in 2010 are taken as 5 ktonnes, the same as the target. Furthermore, the emission reduction resulting from the introduction of low-emissions housing for cattle have not been included, partly because during the passage of the livestock farming and housing (ammonia emissions) decree through Parliament in late 2001 / early 2002 it was agreed that this sector would be excluded, and partly because the incremental effect of this measure is not very cost-effective. 2.1 SO 2 Recent trends Since 1990 SO 2 emissions have fallen by 54% (by 81% since 1980). This is mainly due to switching to lower-sulphur fuels, reductions in the sulphur content of fuels and the scrubbing of flue gases (flue gas desulphurisation) (see Table 2.2). The regulations which implement these policies are the Emissions Limits (Combustion Plants) Decrees ( BEES A and BEES B ), the Environment & Industry Target Group Policy, the Dutch Emission Guidelines, orders in council pursuant to Section 8.40 of the Environmental Management Act for a number of industrial sectors, modifications to environmental permits made by the provinces and municipalities, reductions in emissions from traffic resulting from EU legislation and the Sulphur Content of Fuels Decree. Table 2.2 Emissions (1980, 1990 and 2000), forecasts and targets for 2010 for SO 2 (ktonnes) Forecast Forecast NEPP4 excl. extra incl. extra target policy policy Industry (including refineries, Energy a) Transport Agriculture Services and Construction b) Households Total a) Including waste processing sector. b) Including waste water collection and processing plants.

15 14 Emissions from maritime shipping, both inshore and at sea, account for 13% of acid deposition and nitrogen deposition in the Netherlands.

16 15 Targets Substantial additional efforts will have to be made by the industry (including refineries) and energy target groups to reduce their emissions to 30 ktonnes. A study 8 carried out for the Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment, nevertheless, shows that there are a number of possible options. The mean costs amount to 4 / kg SO 2. Various instruments could be used to reduce the emissions from the industry and energy sectors to 30 ktonnes by DGM reviewed three options: tighten existing regulations; give the competent authorities the power to set an emission ceiling for individual companies in their environmental licence; introduce a system of emissions trading. During the course of the next year the options will be studied in greater detail and the implementability of measures and instruments will be assessed. For the services, construction, agriculture, transport and households target groups the NEPP4 targets seem feasible, though there is little safety margin. The sulphur content of petrol and diesel used on the roads will be reduced to very low levels well before 2010 by virtue of the EU Directive on the quality of petrol and diesel fuels. There is at the moment (November 2002) a broad consensus between the Council, the Commission and the European Parliament about a proposal to this effect. It is likely that the sulphur content of diesel for mobile machinery and agricultural tractors will be reduced to less than 50 ppm well before Similarly by 2010 the sulphur content of the diesel used by vessels on inland waterways and for domestic fuel oil is expected to be reduced below the limit of 1000 ppm which is due to apply from The only significant source of emissions then remaining will be maritime shipping within Dutch waters. On 20 September 2002 the European Commission presented a proposed directive which would reduce the sulphur content of fuel oil used by shipping in the North Sea, the Baltic and the English Channel to 1.5%. The sulphur content of the fuel used by maritime ships at the quayside will be reduced to 2000 ppm, and with effect from 2008 to 1000 ppm. If this directive is adopted, the NEPP4 target of 13 ktonnes can easily be met. Even if it is not the target should just about be achieved. Emission ceiling and NEPP4 objective In conclusion, considerable efforts will be needed if the NEC emission ceiling of 50 ktonnes and the NEPP4 emissions objective for SO 2 of 46 ktonnes in 2010 are to be met. The policy options do appear to be sufficient to allow these objectives to be met, however. The elimination of the emissions of maritime shipping from the national total will reduce the policy gap, making these two objectives to meet with less effort. 2.2 NO x Recent trends NO x emissions have fallen by 27% since 1990, as a result of the phase-out of old combustion installations, the introduction of low and ultra-low NO x burners, catalytic converters in cars and improved central heating boilers (see Table 2.3). Much of the relevant regulation is the same as for SO 2, described in section 2.1. In addition, the Heating Equipment (Type approval) Decree has made a significant contribution to reducing emissions. Targets For the industry (including refineries) and energy target groups a distinction needs to be made between facilities with a total capacity greater than or equal to 20 MW th and those with a total capacity less than 20 MW th. A system of NO x emissions trading is being prepared for the larger facilities, to be introduced in The target agreed for this group is 55 ktonnes. Based on the growth in energy use in accordance with the reference scenario, the RIVM calculated emissions of 74 and 61 ktonnes for mean emissions performance standards of 50 and 40 g NO x /GJ respectively. It is uncertain how energy use by industry will evolve as we approach For the moment it is also assumed by the RIVM that the target of 55 ktonnes for industry (incl. energy) as a whole will be achieved. A decision as to whether, and by how much, the mean emissions performance standard of 50 g/gj will have to be lowered in order to meet the target of 55 ktonnes in 2010, will be taken in In relation to facilities with a capacity less than 20 MW th in industry, but also in the agriculture, services and construction target groups, gas engines are responsible for most of the emissions. 8 DHV: Reductiepotentieel en kosten van SO 2 emissies bij de industrie, raffinaderijen en centrales (Potential for reducing SO 2 emissions from industry, refineries and power stations, and costs), 2001.

17 16 Inland navigation was responsible for 15% of NO x emissions in This proportion will increase to 25% by 2010.

18 17 Table 2.3 Emissions (1990 and 2000), forecasts and targets for 2010 for NO x (ktonnes) Forecast Forecast Target excl. extra incl. extra NEPP4 policy policy Industry (including refineries, Energy a) Transport Agriculture Services and Construction b) Households Total a) Including waste processing sector. b) Including waste water collection and processing plant. c) The reduction in NO x emissions as a result of the introduction of NO x emissions trading for large industrial sources is included in this forecast. A study was started in 2002 which is examining the scope for further reductions in NO x emissions from gas engines. Measures are being looked at involving both engine modification and treatment of the tail gases in terms of the technology, costs and reductions. The effect of NO x reduction measures on the level of methane emissions resulting from incomplete combustion ( methane slip ) will be considered. Because of the interaction between NO x measures and the elimination or reduction of methane slip, these issues will have to be tackled in an integrated manner. Apart from technical modifications, alternatives to gas engines will also have to be considered, such as gas turbines or, ultimately, fuel cells. It will be made clear during 2003 what reductions can be achieved with which measures or alternatives. For facilities smaller than 20 MW th in the industry and energy sector the RIVM calculates possible emissions in 2010 of 9 ktonnes NO x and, for the other target groups together, 7 ktonnes. These emissions must be regarded as the lowest possible because it is assumed that by 2010 all installations will meet quite ambitious emission standards. Because it usually takes several years for regulations to be modified and take effect, it is more realistic to assume a smaller emission reduction. An emission reduction 50% lower than assumed by the RIVM has therefore been adopted for these sectors. This gives emissions of 15 ktonnes for small facilities in the industry and energy sector and 11 ktonnes for the other target groups. The mean costs of these measures will be between 2 and 6 / kg NO x. A decision will be taken in 2003 about the instruments to be used to achieve these reductions. The most obvious would be to tighten the standards in the BEES B, the NER and the type approval of central heating boilers (air pollution) decree. The standards for oil-and coal-fired process installations, cookers and boilers will also need to be tightened. In the case of the transport target group, technical measures for road traffic are almost entirely a matter for the EU. In recent years agreement has been reached on standards up until A further tightening of standards will only impact on emissions after One possibility open to member states, and therefore to the Netherlands, is to provide incentives for the early introduction of measures. The RIVM calculates that a reduction of 2 ktonnes could be achieved if incentives were introduced for heavy goods vehicles to adopt EURO 4 or EURO 5 standards (costs 5 /kg NO x ). The accelerated introduction of the EURO 5 standards by the EU would make it easier to meet the target. Inland navigation is a major source of NO x emissions. The fact

19 Cattle farming (dairy and beef) accounts for over half the NH 3 emissions from agriculture in the Netherlands. 18

20 19 that the other sources are implementing large reductions means that this sector will account for an increasingly large proportion of the residual emissions: from 14% in 2000 to 25% in The Central Commission for the Navigation of the Rhine (CCNR) is the regulatory body for this sector. Tighter standards will reduce emissions in 2010 by 1 ktonne, and a measure to encourage modification in the engines of inland navigation vessels would, according to the RIVM, achieve a further 2 ktonnes reduction. This brings the forecast emissions for transport down to 178 ktonnes, far short of the target of 150 ktonnes. The reasons for this discrepancy include the high rate of growth in inland navigation and in the number of delivery vans, almost always diesel-engined. The high growth in inland navigation can be partly offset by the proposed scheme for subsidising the purchase of cleaner engines and the retrofit of existing engines with exhaust gas treatment systems. However, there are uncertainties in this regard about whether such a scheme is consistent with the European rules on environmental aid and about the likely take-up by the target group. It may be possible to moderate the growth in the number of delivery vans by tightening the tax criteria for delivery vans. There is also a risk that there will be a shift towards dieselengined cars. TNO has estimated that an increase in the proportion of diesel-engined cars from 20% to 40% would increase the NO x emissions from transport in 2010 by 3 ktonnes. Another obstacle to meeting the target may come from increased knowledge of the emissions from heavy goods vehicles. There are indications that the emissions from heavy goods vehicles in the EURO 2 and 3 categories may in the past have been underestimated by several tens of percentage points. These vehicles may turn out to have higher emissions in practice than under test conditions. This could add 10 to 20 ktonnes to the actual emissions. Another uncertainty relates to what the impact will be on emissions of this possible discrepancy between test conditions and practice over the coming years for vehicles compliant with the EURO 4 and 5 standards. In the case of the households target group, tighter standards under the Heating Equipment (Type approval) Decree and an increased penetration of High-Efficiency combi-boilers are being studied. The RIVM calculated that the residual emissions from this target group could be reduced to 6 ktonnes if the emission standards for new boilers were made much tighter and a % replacement rate of central heating boilers by High-Efficiency boilers were achieved. This must be regarded as a lower limit for emissions (optimistic case). The upper limit could be taken to be a reduction of 50% of this size, resulting in emissions of 11 ktonnes. The unit cost of these measures is estimated to be 6 / kg NO x. Emission ceiling and NEPP4 objective. We conclude that the NEC emission ceiling of 260 ktonnes in 2010 cannot be achieved without extra policy. The measures considered in this report may only reduce emissions to 270 ktonnes, 10 ktonnes higher than the international emission ceiling. It is at present uncertain what the reduction in the total NO x emissions will be due to the exclusion of emissions from maritime shipping, and the extent to which this reduction may be offset by the possibility that emissions, particularly from goods traffic, have been underestimated. It looks as though the NEPP4 objective of 231 ktonnes will remain way out of reach. 2.3 NH 3 Recent trends NH 3 emissions have fallen by 35% since 1990, as a result of reductions in the number of cattle, measures to abate emissions such as the covering of manure storage facilities, the direct incorporation of manure into agricultural land and the use of low-emissions livestock housing (see Table 2.4). The relevant regulations include the Ammonia and Livestock Farming (Interim Measures) Act (now replaced by the Ammonia and Livestock Farming Act) the slurry ponds regulations (by virtue of Sections 8.40 and 8.44 of the Environmental anagement Act), the Use of Animal Manure Decree (by virtue of the Soil Protection Act, since replaced by the Use of Fertilisers Decree). Ammonia emissions have also fallen as a spin-off from policy on agricultural nutrients ( MINAS standards). Targets The emissions from the industry target group have fallen by 40% since The main sources are the fertiliser industry and the primary metals industry. The NEPP4 target (2 ktonnes) is expected to be achieved by pursuing the Environment & Industry Target Group Policy.It appears that the NEPP4 target for the transport target group (5 ktonnes) can be attained with some margin to spare. It is unlikely that improved knowledge of emission factors for NH 3 will alter this conclusion.

21 20 Table 2.4 Emissions (1990 and 2000), forecasts and targets for 2010 for NH 3 (ktonnes) Forecast Forecast Target excl. extra incl. extra NEPP4 policy policy Industry a) Transport c) 5 5 Agriculture Services and Construction b) Households Total a) including waste processing sector. b) including waste water collection and processing plants. c) No emissions were calculated for transport in the Milieubalans 2002 because the emission factors were not available. There is a risk that the future use of selective catalytic reduction (SCR) in diesel engines will increase the NH 3 -emissions. In the case of the agriculture target group, the Livestock Farming and Housing (ammonia emissions) Decree is expected to enter into force in the first half of The RIVM estimates the emissions from agriculture in 2010 after these regulations have been implemented will be 115 ktonnes. During the passage of these draft regulations through parliament together with legislation to restructure the intensive livestock farming sector in late 2001 / early 2002, changes were agreed whereby dairy stock would be taken outside the scope of these regulations providing the sector achieved the desired reduction in emissions through changes in cattle feed resulting in lower excretion of nitrogen (as measured by the milk urea content). The RIVM calculates that these measures, which generally pay for themselves in economic terms, will reduce emissions by 10 ktonnes. Further low-emissions application of manure into agricultural soil is also a cost-effective way of reducing NH 3 emissions. The use of a slurry applicator to spread animal waste on all grassland (cost approximately 1 /kg NH 3 ) and the spreading and working into the soil in a single pass of manure on arable land (savings offset costs) will reduce emissions, according to the RIVM, by 11 ktonnes. The fact that a slurry applicator cannot be used on peat soils will limit the reduction achieved: a reduction of 6 ktonnes is therefore assumed. After taking account of these two measures, the emissions from the agriculture sector are expected to be 99 ktonnes in It should however be noted that the emissions could end up somewhat higher as a result of a shift of chickens from batteries to deep-litter housing (increase 2 ktonnes). The NH 3 emissions forecast for 2010 depends on the result of the Dutch request for a derogation under the EU Nitrate Directive, the abolition of livestock quotas and milk quotas and the expansion of the EU in The RIVM estimates in its assessment of the Coalition Agreement that the outcome of these matters could affect emissions by 10 ktonnes up or down. No further policy has been examined for the households target group. The emissions target is the same as forecast emissions. It is not easy to reduce emissions further because other than those from cleaning products they result for the most part from human bodily functions. Emission ceiling and NEPP4 objective We conclude that the NEC emission ceiling of 128 ktonnes will be narrowly missed. With the implementation of the measures mentioned above and already planned (further low-emissions application and modifications to dairy cattle feed), the emissions in 2010 should be reduced to 114 ktonnes. This is exactly halfway between the international emission ceiling of 128 ktonnes and the NEPP4 objective of 100 ktonnes. 2.4 VOC Recent trends VOC emissions have fallen by 43% since This has been achieved by reducing leaks, using vapour balancing and vapour recovery systems, process innovation, improving efficiency, product-oriented measures (solvents) and end-of-pipe technologies (catalytic converters, tail-gas incinerators etc.) (see Table 2.5). Regulations and instruments which have been adopted include the KWS2000 programme, the Dutch Emission Guidelines, orders in council pursuant to Section 8.40 of the Environmental Management Act for certain industrial sectors, environmental permits issued by the provinces and municipalities, emissions standards for traffic, workplace health and safety regulations and product standards (paints and coatings,

22 21 Table 2.5 Emissions (1990 and 2000), forecasts and targets for 2010 for VOC (ktonnes) Forecast Forecast Target excl. extra incl. extra NEPP4 policy policy Industry (incl. refineries), Energy a) Transport (45) Agriculture Services and Constructions b) (23) Households (25) Total (155) c) a) Including waste processing sector. b) Including waste water collection and processing plants. c) This objective can only be met with the help of EU directives which tackle products containing VOC (paints and coatings, adhesives, cosmetics, etc.) and mopeds, scooters and motorcycles. adhesives, but also for wood-burning stoves and multi-fuel stoves (Wood-burning and Multi-fuel stoves (Type Approval) Decree)). Targets In the case of the industry (including refineries) and energy and the services / construction target groups there appears to be plenty of scope for reducing emissions to within the respective targets of 60 and 26 (23) ktonnes by This was made evident by a study 9 carried out for the Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment in consultation with the sectors. The RIVM endorses this conclusion. As for the project KWS2000, a covenant-based approach has again been chosen for post-2000: the VOC reduction plan. A total reduction of 30% has been agreed with industry. Each and every sector will have to exert itself to help achieve this reduction. Almost all sectors 9 STORK: VOC-Reductiepotentieelonderzoek- een quick scan (Broad survey of possibilities for abating VOC emissions), 21 March have agreed to draw up a plan in this connection. These plans will indicate how, when and by how much emissions can be reduced, and demonstrate that companies are ready to implement the plans. The reduction plans received to date do not yet bring the targets shown within striking distance. A firm implementation plan for the sectors concerned will be ready by mid The mean unit costs of the necessary measures is estimated by the RIVM to be about 3 / kg VOC. Emissions from the transport target group are likely to exceed the NEPP4 target by between 5 and 10 ktonnes. Possible further measures include improved maintenance of private cars by testing and regulating VOC emissions in the annual technical inspection for motor vehicles and restricting or banning the tuning up of mopeds. The planned future registration of mopeds should facilitate enforcement. The effects of these two measures are difficult to quantify at the moment. As far as the households target group is concerned, Dutch emissions will depend in part on the provisions of the EU VOC product directive currently in preparation. A first draft of the directive was presented by the European Commission at the end of The draft directive for the moment targets only VOC emissions from paints. The RIVM calculates that the VOC product directive in its present form will lead to a reduction of 3 ktonnes. Another major source of VOC emissions is cosmetics and personal care products (approximately 30%). Cleaning products (13%), auto care products (15%) and adhesives (6%) are also substantial sources of emissions. Since these products are often produced in other countries, the opportunities to take measures in the Netherlands are limited. The EU VOC products directive, once enacted, will provide an appropriate framework within which an international approach to these emissions could be taken. The Netherlands will therefore seek to have this directive extended into a framework directive for VOC emissions in household products. Dutch legislation regulating workplace health and safety prohibits professional decorators from using paints with a high solvent content indoors. The introduction of the present EU product directive for paints in conjunction with the effect of the measures to protect workplace health may result in a further decrease in the emissions from households. The RIVM quantified this knock-on effect as being in the range 0-7 ktonnes. The total for the households target group is therefore ktonnes. Although it is difficult to convert potential switching of this kind into a hard reduction, it would be cost-effective. The

23 Open fire places and multi-fuel and wood-burning stoves are a large source of fine particles and VOC. 22

24 23 mean unit costs are estimated to be less than 1 /kg VOC. The magnitude of the reduction in VOC emissions achieved will depend inter alia, on the actions taken by the government, preferably in consultation with the sectors, to encourage switching to lower-voc products. Such actions might include publicity campaigns designed to promote the use of low-voc paints and water-based paints, but also tax incentives. Products which harm the environment would be taxed more heavily than environmentally friendly (low-voc) products. Emission ceiling and NEPP4 objective In conclusion, the NEC emission ceiling of 185 ktonnes in 2010 cannot be achieved without further policy. The extra measures considered in this report cannot realistically be expected to go beyond 177 ktonnes. It should therefore just about be possible to comply with the NEC emission ceiling. The NEPP4 objective of 163/155 ktonnes remains unattainable. Table 2.6 Emissions (1980, 1990 and 1998 c ) and forecast for 2010 for fine particulate matter (PM 10 and PM 2,5 ) (ktonnes) PM 10 PM 2, Industry (incl. refineries), Energy a) Transport Agriculrure Services and Construction b) Household Total Fine particulate matter Primary and secondary particles Fine particulate matter is not (yet) a NEC pollutant. It has nevertheless been included in this report. There are a number of reasons for this. Half of the anthropogenic emissions are formed from reactions involving acidifying components. These inorganic salts are also referred to as secondary fine particles. Reductions in emissions of acidifying components therefore also result in lower concentrations of fine particulate matter. Primary fine particles form the other type of anthropogenic fine particulate matter. These are mainly emitted from combustion processes, like the pollutants responsible for acidification. Measures taken to deal with acidification, therefore, also have an impact on fine particulate matter. In view of this synergy and the seriousness of the health effects, account needs to be taken of fine particulate matter when evaluating our international obligations. (See Annex). a) Including waste processing sector. b) Including waste water collection and processing plants. c) The emission inventories for 1999 and 2000 are still incomplete. Recent trends Since 1990, emissions of fine particulate matter have fallen by 34% for PM 10 and 38% for PM 2.5 (since 1980 by 53% and 59% respectively). This is as a result of process modifications and particulate filters for business activities which create particulate pollution, reduced emissions from cars and heavy goods vehicles, improvements in combustion installations, and restrictions in fuels and other measures for wood-burning stoves and multi-fuel stoves (see table 2.6). The relevant regulations are the same as those mentioned for SO 2 and NO x. These three pollutants are often tackled together in emissions regulations. Targets There are not yet any emissions objectives and targets for fine particulate matter. The Netherlands does have an air quality limit value for fine particulate matter (PM 10 ) (see Chapter 3). There are still many unanswered questions about fine particulate matter, such as whether we have yet identified al sources of emissions and which category or categories of fine particulate matter are responsible for the health effects. A great deal of research is being done in the Netherlands and elsewhere to answer these and other questions, because the health effects due to fine particulate matter are serious and are not in doubt (see Chapter 3 and the Annex). The Netherlands remains fully committed to a policy of reducing the emissions of fine particulate matter. Whether this policy needs to be stepped up and emissions objectives and targets need to be set depends on whether new and more stringent international policy is to be drawn up (see Annex).

25 24 Excessive ozone and fine particulate levels in the atmosphere cause several thousand premature deaths and several thousand emergency hospital admissions each year.

26 25 3. Environmental quality Reductions in emissions will lead to an improved environment. Emissions and environmental quality are two sides of the same coin. In this chapter we therefore look at the impact of emissions on human health (Section 3.1) and on nature (Section 3.2). To this end the emissions calculated by the RIVM for this report were used in order to calculate concentrations, depositions, exceedances of standards and objectives and the most serious health effects. We begin by examining the Dutch environmental quality objectives for the protection of health and nature and the interim environmental quality objectives included in the NEC Directive. Environmental quality objectives The NEPP4 contains not only emissions objectives and targets for the target groups, but also environmental quality objectives for Most of these environmental quality objectives are actually interim objectives on the path towards sustainable values. The latter are levels of concentrations and depositions for which the health effects are either nil or (where there is no threshold value) a level which can be accepted and there is no impact on ecosystems. Sustainable values are included in the NEPP4 as long term objectives (2030). The 2010 air quality objectives for the protection of both health and the environment have the status of limit values. They are derived from WHO guideline values, and are included in EU directives. These values are legally binding. The Netherlands incorporated these air quality limit values in the Air Quality Decree. The NEPP4 deposition objectives for nature were calculated from the NEPP4 emissions objectives for 2010, assuming that (other) EU countries implement the emission ceilings of the NEC Directive and that other European countries implement those of the Gothenburg Protocol. Objectives for human health Table 3.1 summarises the air quality limit values which apply in the Netherlands. The SO 2 limit values are no longer exceeded anywhere in the country. This is due to the large reductions in emissions already achieved in the Netherlands and neighbouring countries. For NO 2 it is the case that when the standard for the annual mean has been met, the peak value of 200 µg/m 3 will no longer be exceeded. In Section 3.1 we therefore consider only the annual mean concentration. The ozone value has the status of guide value in the Netherlands according to the Environmental Management Act. The EU Directive refers to target values. This implies that a country must do all it can to avoid exceedance. The PM 10 limit values will be evaluated in The WHO has been asked by the European Commission to advise on these standards. The WHO will probably also look at different particle sizes, e.g. PM 2.5 and PM 1.0. Table 3.1 Air quality limit values for the protection of human health for the theme acidification and continental air pollution Compo- Limit Averaging Number of Comnent value in period exceedances pliance µg/m 3 permitted by NO 2 40 jaar uur 18 times per year 2010 SO dag 3 times per year uur 24 times per year 2001 PM jaar dag 35 times per year 2005 PM jaar indicative a) 50 dag 7 times per year 2010 Ozon guide uur on 25 days per 2010 value b) year (mean over 3 year) a) The indicative limit value for fine particulate matter will be evaluated by the EU in b) The NEPP4 specifies that the guide value may be exceeded on 20 days.

27 Heathland is grazed by sheep to stop it being overgrown with grasses and other plants as a result of excessive nitrogen deposition. 26

28 27 Objectives for nature Table 3.2 summarises the deposition and concentration objectives for the Netherlands. The deposition objectives and exceedance rates have been recalculated. Calculated depositions, exceedances and percentage of natural habitat (land with natural or semi-natural vegetation) protected depend on our state of knowledge about emissions, deposition (depends on model grid size) and the desired quality (type of ecosystem) of nature. A number of changes have been made since the NEPP4, and these have already been allowed for in the Milieubalans We, therefore, also give the recalculated deposition objectives in this report, against which the calculated environmental quality will be compared. Table 3.3 is the updated version of a table presented in the NEPP4 and the Policy overview of the theme acidification and continental air pollution, and gives recalculated figures. The table summarises the depositions and exceedances per province. The calculated depositions and exceedances have not taken the effects of specific local policies into account. Such local policies are particularly appropriate in the case of NH 3 to reduce deposition rates and exceedances and increasing the percentage of natural habitat which is protected, because of the relatively rapid deposition rate for this pollutant.

29 28 Table 3.2 Environmental quality objectives a) for the protection of nature in 2010 for the theme acidification and continental air pollution. Objective / unit Description Acid deposition 2300 mol potential acid/ha per year b) Mean deposition rate to ecosystems in the Netherlands such that 20% of the area of nature is protected. Nitrogen deposition 1650 mol nitrogen/ha per year b) Mean deposition rate to ecosystems in the Netherlands such that 20% of the area of nature is protected. Ozone vegetation 8.5 ppm.hr (17,000 µg/m 3.hr) c) AOT40. Obtained by summing all hourly values in excess of 40 ppb (80 µg/m 3 ) during May, June and July (mean over 5 years). NOx vegetation 30 µg/m 3 annual mean concentration SO 2 vegetation 20 µg/m 3 mean winter concentration a) The NO x and SO 2 objectives for vegetation are mandatory values from the first EU daughter directive on air quality. The ozone objective is a guide value. b) The objectives for acid and nitrogen deposition have been recalculated using improved data on emissions and deposition rates. These objectives have been recalculated using the NEPP4 emissions objectives. They are interim objectives towards a situation in which 95% of nature in the Netherlands is fully protected (NEPP4, pp ). c) This is the NEPP4 objective. A value of 18,000 µg/m 3.hr (9 ppm.hr) is included in the EU ozone directive.

30 29 Table 3.3 Deposition objectives by province for acid and nitrogen deposition, percentage of ecosystems on which sustainable levels are exceeded in year 2010 and total excess deposition over sustainable deposition rates a),b),c),d) a),b),c),d) Rate of acid deposition to ecosystems (mol H + /ha) Percentage area of nature fully protected against exceedance of sustainable acid deposition rates Total excess acid deposition over sustainable levels (Mmol) Rate of nitrogen deposition to ecosystems (mol N/ha) Percentage area of nature fully protected against exceedance of sustainable nitrogen deposition rates Total excess nitrogen deposition over sustainable levels (Mmol) Groningen Friesland Drenthe Overijssel Flevoland Gelderland Utrecht North Holland South Holland Zeeland North Brabant Limburg National a) Deposition rates have been rounded to the nearest 50 equivalents. b) Percentages are rounded to the nearest 10, as are the total excess depositions. c) The provincial deposition objectives, the excess depositions and the percentages have been recalculated. If there is an improvement in our knowledge of the deposition and emission mechanisms, for example the results of studies of the NH 3 gap, or if there are changes in the area or the desired quality of ecosystems, these figures will have to be recalculated. d) The calculated deposition objectives and excess depositions have not taken the effects of specific local policy into account. Depending on how successful such policy is there will be further reductions in the depositions and exceedances and an increase in the area fully protected.

31 30 Intermediate NEC objectives In drawing up the NEC Directive the European Commission worked through many different scenarios. These scenarios linked environmental objectives with emissions and costs. The Commission s final proposal included emission ceilings for the member states and environmental objectives for acidification, eutrophication and ground-level ozone. The environmental objectives adopted are spelled out in the NEC Directive (see box). The emission ceilings adopted in the Directive were not those proposed by the Commission. The ceilings accepted by member states, including the Netherlands, were somewhat higher. The interim objectives of the NEC Directive are not binding on member states. However when the NEC Directive is reviewed, the feasibility of these objectives will be reconsidered (see Annex, Section 2). RIVM calculations As for emissions, the RIVM calculated the consequences of the package of 12 (groups of) measures for pollutant concentrations and depositions, and their impact on health and nature. The RIVM reported4, for the resulting deposition rates, excess Interim environmental objectives in the NEC Directive The national emission ceilings in the NEC Directive were based on the following criteria: 1. Acidification: to reduce the area in which the sustainable deposition rates are exceeded by 50% in 2010 relative to Ozone, health: to reduce ozone loads in excess of the health-related criterion (AOT60) by 67% in 2010 relative to Ozone levels to remain within the maximum value of 58,000 µg/m 3.hr (29 ppm.hr (AOT 60)); 3. Ozone, vegetation: to reduce ozone loads in excess of the critical level (AOT 40 = 6000 µg/m 3.hr (3 ppm.hr)) by 33% in 2010 relative to The load should nowhere exceed 26,000 µg/m 3.hr (13 ppm.hr (AOT 40)); 4. Eutrophication: to reduce loads in excess of the sustainable deposition rates (soil) by 30% in 2010 relative to loads and percentage areas of nature protected, two figures forming a range. The higher deposition rates and excess loads, and the corresponding percentage areas were obtained by factoring up the results to allow for the difference between the calculated and the measured NH 3 (the NH 3 gap ). The higher figures are used in this document. In Sections 3.1 and 3.2 the RIVM calculations are compared with the Dutch objectives and the interim environmental objectives of the NEC Directive. 3.1 Health Recent trends Pollutant concentrations have fallen substantially since 1990 (see Table 3.4). This is the result of the effective measures taken both in the Netherlands and other countries. This is particularly true of SO 2. Since 1980 the emissions have fallen by 80%, so that there are no air quality blackspots for this pollutant: the SO 2 standards are not exceeded anywhere in the Netherlands. Concentrations are declining due to measures at home and in other countries. The extent to which pollutant concentrations can be influenced by the Netherlands varies for the different pollutants. The proportions of the concentrations of NO 2, O 3 and PM 10 accounted for by Dutch emissions are 60, 15 and 25% respectively. The concentrations of PM 10 are determined by natural emissions (dust entrained by the wind, sea salt, etc.), directly emitted particles (primary particulate matter) and particles formed in the atmosphere (secondary particulate matter). Secondary particulate matter consists mainly of salts formed by acidifying substances. Reducing emissions of acid precursors therefore results in lower concentrations of fine particulate matter. Such reductions are often accompanied by an indirect reduction in the emissions of primary fine particulate matter. Exceedances Ozone and fine particulate matter pose the greatest threats to health. It is estimated that exposure to these pollutants will result in several thousand premature deaths in the Netherlands in The entire population of the Netherlands will be exposed to concentrations of fine particulate matter in excess of the indicative value for There is now no longer any exposure to concentrations of ozone above the guide value. The fact that non-zero effects are estimated for ozone is due to the fact that

32 31 there is no safe level for ozone below which health effects do not occur. In the same way, there is no threshold level for fine particulate matter. In 2010 there may still be exceedances of the limit values for NO 2 and people may still be exposed to excessive concentrations. This will depend in part on how the reductions in NO x emissions are achieved. Any residual exceedances of the limit value for NO 2 can, according to the EU Directive, be dealt with by means of local measures. Calculating the health effects from the actual exposure and the most up-to-date dose-response relationships for the Netherlands, it is seen that the health risks for PM 10 are gradually declining, whereas there is virtually no change in those for ozone. The interim objectives for ozone for 2010 in the NEC Directive will be achieved in the Netherlands (see Table 3.6). Effects The health effects are predominantly respiratory problems. People who already have respiratory or cardiac and circulatory disease are particularly vulnerable. The problem of fine particulate matter was studied and evaluated as part of the Dutch Aerosol Programme10. In this Programme, the number of premature deaths in the Netherlands in 2000 was calculated to be in the range This number fell to 1600 deaths for The lower figure of 1700 from the Dutch Aerosol Programme is based on relative death rates observed in Dutch studies. The higher figure of 3000 is a mean based on various methods used internationally. Table 3.4 shows that the number of deaths and emergency admittances to hospital due to PM 10 is expected to fall between 2001 and For the purpose of these calculations the age profile of the population was assumed to be the same in 2010 as in 2001, as otherwise, the increasing average age and size of the population would have masked the underlying effect. It can be seen that the number of deaths due to O 3 increases in This is due to the fact that the mean O 3 concentration is somewhat higher in 2010 than in 2001, due to the high levels of NO x in North-West Europe. Ozone is of course formed by a catalytic reaction between NO x and VOC in the presence of sunlight. Ozone concentrations will only fall if there are large reductions in NO x and VOC. Particulate matter is made up of a mixture of particles of various sizes and compositions. Some components are more harmful to health than others. The source of the fine particulate matter is probably one of the factors which determines how harmful it is. Particulate matter originating from traffic and other combustion processes appears to be more harmful, for example, than matter originating from the soil. The causal mechanisms between exposure to various types of particles and health effects are not fully understood. Although at present there are only standards for PM 10, separate standards for finer particulate matter in which different sources are distinguished would seem desirable. Chapter 2 of the Policy overview of the theme acidification and continental air pollution contains a detailed description of the health effects of caused by air pollution. Table 3.4 summarises the exposure data and the most serious health effects. The differences between the various calculated figures for 2010 are not great. This is hardly surprising given the small differences in emissions between the various 2010 variants and the dependence of the concentrations on emission reductions in the Netherlands. 10 RIVM: On health risks of ambient PM in the Netherlands, report no , 2002.

33 32 Table 3.4 Summary of calculated concentrations a), exposure of the population to concentrations in excess of the limit values for 2010 and premature deaths and emergency hospital admissions in the Netherlands b) Foracast Foracast NEPP4 Limit excl. extra incl. emissions value measures 12 DGM objective measures d) Concentrations NO 2, anual mean concentration (µg/m 3 ) O 3, days exceedance 120 µg/m c) 8-hour mean concentration a) PM 10, anual mean conc.(µg/m 3 ) Exposure NO 2, anual mean conc. 3.9 mill. 0.4 mill. 3, µg/m 3 (backround concentration) Idem (along busy 0.2 mill , , ,000 motorways) O 3, 25 dagen 10.8 mill PM 10, 20 µg/m mill mill mill mill. O 3, premature death PM 10, premature death PM 10, hospitalisation a) The forecast concentrations and exposures were calculated on the basis of long-term mean meteorology. In other circumstances the figures can be lower or higher. In the last few years actual ozone concentrations have been significantly lower. b) The 1990 figures were derived by means of expert judgement from the RIVM report: Gezondheids- and natuureffects of verschillende milieuambities in 2010, report no , 2003 and the RIVM report Evaluatie van de verzuringsdoelstellingen: de emissievarianten, report no , c) The NEPP4 objective is 20 days. d) These figures are based on estimated emissions allowing for the full introduction of the 12 (groups of) measures indicated by DGM. The difference with the emissions as forecasted inclusive of extra measures for SO 2, NO x, NH 3 and VOC is 2,16, 10 and -5 ktonnes respectively.

34 33 Figure 3.1 Loss of healthy years of life in the Netherlands (DALYs), various causes (Source: RIVM, Milieubalans 1997) DALY's DALYs With regard to the figures for (premature) death due to exposure to air pollution, it should be noted that older people and people suffering from respiratory complaints and disease of the heart and circulatory system appear to be particularly vulnerable. The provisional results of a study carried out for the Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment 11 show that in Europe, fine particulate matter alone is responsible for shortening life by an average of one year. New indicators are being developed which express how much earlier people die and suffer from various health problems. One such indicator is the DALY (Disability Adjusted Life Year), and it seeks to measure healthy years of life lost, through both mortality and morbidity. By way of example, Figure 3.1 shows calculated DALYs for a number of different (environment-related) causes. 3.2 Nature Recent trends Both acid and nitrogen deposition have been falling rapidly, as have exceedances of critical levels. Unfortunately the deposition rates were so high that the reductions have not yet much increased the percentage of natural habitat protected against excessive acidity and nitrogen. 60% of acid deposition and 70% of nitrogen deposition are accounted for by Dutch emissions of acidifying substances and nitrogen compounds respectively. The ozone excess load of natural vegetation and agricultural crops will fall only slowly, and the mean ozone concentration exhibits a slow upward trend. These concentrations are heavily influenced by background levels. Large reductions of NO x, VOC and CH 4, coordinated internationally, will be necessary to reduce these concentrations. Excess deposition Since 1990 the mean acid and nitrogen deposition to natural habitat have fallen by 36 and 27% respectively. The total excess deposition fell even more, by 53% and 44% respectively. However, acid and nitrogen deposition to Dutch ecosystems are still too high. At present 90% of the area of nature in the Netherlands suffers from excessive acid and nitrogen deposition (see Table 3.5). However this situation is improving rapidly, and with it the rate and extent of the various types of adverse effects caused. The effects consist, broadly, of impairment of the soil and groundwater, reduced tree growth and loss of biodiversity. It has proved possible to establish a link between excessive deposition and the likelihood of occurrence of species. In simple terms, excess deposition creates a situation in which plants which thrive under nitrogen-rich conditions, e.g. grasses, brambles and nettles, begin to predominate, leading to a reduction in the diversity of flora and fauna. For a detailed account of the effects of excessive deposition on natural ecosystems see Chapter 2 of the Policy overview of the theme acidification and continental air pollution. Table 3.5 presents an overview of the mean deposition and the excess deposition for the Netherlands. There are large between-province differences. Provinces in the North and West of the country will be reaching protection rates of 50-60% by This is due partly to lower deposition rates (particularly of NH 3 ) and partly to the fact that these ecosystems are less sensitive. 11 IIASA : A methodology to estimate changes in statistical life expectancy due to the control of particulate matter air pollution. IR , 2002

35 34 Figure 3.2 Deposition of potential acid in excess of critical levels on soil ecosystems for various emission levels excluding additional measures mol H + /ha/yr mol H + /ha/yr including 12 DGM measures 2010 NEPP4 emissions objectives mol H + /ha/yr mol H + /ha/yr

36 35 Table 3.5 Summary of calculated mean deposition, total excess deposition and percentage area of ecosystems protected from acid and nitrogen in the Netherlands a) 1990 b) Forecast Forecast incl. NEPP4 excl. extra 12 DGM emission measures measures c) objective d) Acid deposition Mean (mol/ha.year) Total excess deposition (Mmol/year) Percentage protected Nitrogen deposition Mean (mol/ha.year) Total excess deposition (Mmol/year) Percentage protected Ozone Excess load (AOT40, µg/m 3.u) 18,000 7,000 5,700 6,000 6,000 a) The forecast concentrations, exposures, effects and loads were calculated on the basis of the long-term mean meteorology. In the last few years actual ozone concentrations have been significantly lower. b) The 1990 figures are derived by means of expert judgement from the RIVM report: Gezondheids- and natuureffects of verschillende milieuambities in 2010, report no , 2003 and the RIVM report Evaluatie van de verzuringsdoelstelingen: de emissievarianten, report no , c) These figures are based on estimated emissions allowing for the full introduction of the 12 (groups of) measures as indicated by DGM. The difference with the emissions as forecasted inclusive of extra measures for SO 2, NO x, NH 3 and VOC is 2,16, 10 and -5 ktonnes respectively. d) The acid and nitrogen deposition objectives have been recalculated to allow for improved estimates of emissions and depositions.

37 36 Figure 3.3 Deposition of nitrogen in excess of critical levels on soil ecosystems for various emission levels excluding additional measures mol N/ha/yr mol N/ha/yr including 12 DGM measures 2010 NEPP4 emissions objectives mol N/ha/yr mol N/ha/yr

38 37 NEC Directive: environmental quality objectives Table 3.6 summarises the environmental quality in the Netherlands in 1990 and 2010 for those parameters for which the NEC Directive sets quality objectives (see box before Section 3.1). All the objectives except those relating to acidification will be comfortably achieved before Indeed some of the objectives have already been met. Table 3.6 Interim environmental quality objectives in the NEC Directive, applied to the Netherlands a) 1990 c) 2010 NEC-doel voor Nederland Netherlands Acidification Acid deposition <10% protected 20% protected >55% protected (50% reduction in area with excessive deposition) Eutrophication Nitrogen deposition 2800 Mmol 740 Mmol 1960 Mmol (30% reduction in the total excess deposition over sustainable levels) Ground-level ozone Ozone, health 39 days 9 days <13 days (67% reduction in excess exposure over guideline value) Ozone, health 16 days 2 days 0 (no exceedance of peak value b) ) Ozone vegetation 18,000 µg/m 3.hr 6,000 µg/m 3.hr 12,000 µg/m 3.hr (33% reduction in excess load (AOT40, averaged over the Netherlands)) Ozone vegetation 14,000-24,000 µg/m 3.hr 2,500-10,000 µg/m 3.hr 26,000 µg/m 3.hr (no exceedance of peak value (AOT40)) a) Concentrations, exposures and effects calculated on basis of long-term mean meteorology. b) The peak value in the NEC Directive is expressed in terms of AOT60. This is not calculated in the Netherlands. The EU information threshold of 180 µg/m 3 (1 hour mean) is calculated, however. This value is used here. c) The 1990 figures are derived by means of expert judgement from the RIVM report: Gezondheids- and natuureffects of verschillende milieuambities in 2010, report no , 2003 and the RIVM report Evaluatie van de verzuringsdoelstellingen: de emissievarianten, report no , 2001.

39 38 The dairy sector will be exempt from the requirements under the Livestock Housing Regulations to use low-emissions housing, on condition that it achieves the planned emission reduction through changes in feed.

40 39 4. Conclusions 4.1 Emissions Instruments This review makes it clear that the emissions ceilings in the NEC Directive (and the Gothenburg Protocol) can only be achieved if additional measures are taken. To ensure that this actually happens, a great deal of work will be needed to prepare the necessary instruments (legislation and regulations) and to get the additional measures implemented. The precise form and content will be the subject of the Implementation Memorandum Emission Ceilings for Acidification and Long- Range Air Pollution 2003, which will be sent to Parliament and the European Commission at the end of In this section we outline the measures already planned and being implemented, and those for which regulations are being drafted. This outline is not exhaustive, and concentrates on the extra measures reviewed in this report, but illustrates the extent to which laws and regulations will have to be amended or drafted. A more precise description of the regulatory changes, the timetable, etc., will be presented in the Implementation Memorandum 2003 referred to earlier. SO 2 On the emissions side, modifications will have to be made to the BEES A and B, the Dutch Emission Guidelines, orders in council regulating certain industrial sectors and individual environmental licences. Other possibilities include the introduction of emissions trading or allowing competent authorities to incorporate emission ceilings for individual companies in company licences. On the fuel side, the Sulphur Content of Fuels Decree will be amended. NO x A system of emissions trading is being prepared for stationary facilities with a capacity equal to or greater than 20 MW th. For facilities with a total capacity less than 20 MW th, the regulations which need to be amended will be the BEES B, the Dutch Emission Guidelines, the orders in council for certain industrial sectors, but also the Heating Equipment (Type approval) Decree. An incentives scheme will be vigorously promoted to encourage the replacement of engines in inland waterway vessels in order to secure the greatest possible reduction. Tax incentives could also be introduced to encourage the early introduction of the EURO 4 and EURO 5 standards for heavy Heavy goods vehicles are a major source of NO x, accounting for 25% of emissions in goods vehicles. The accelerated introduction of the EURO 5 standards by the EU would also be helpful in achieving the emissions ceiling. The growth in the number of delivery vans and diesel-engined cars also needs to be curbed (this is also important for air quality). It is particularly important for NO x that existing installations are replaced rapidly, because even after the additional measures are taken, emissions in 2010 are forecast to exceed the NEC ceiling by 10 ktonnes. NH 3 In the case of NH 3 the intention is that modifications should be made to cattle feed which reduce the excreted nitrogen, thereby reducing the emissions. This will be implemented through agreements with the sector. The Use of Fertiliser Decree also needs to be amended in order to implement potential reductions in that area. VOC Agreements relating to VOC need to be made within the

41 40 framework of the VOC Reduction Plan (the successor to the KWS 2000 programme), possibly followed by modifications in the Dutch Emission Guidelines, and in the orders in council regulating certain industrial sectors, and which will also be carried over into the environmental licences issued by the provinces and municipalities. An assessment will have to be made of the reduction which can be achieved by improving the maintenance of the stock of private cars by including checks on VOC emissions in the annual technical inspection for motor vehicles and by restricting the tuning up of mopeds and scooters. As far as products are concerned, the EU is currently working on a directive on paints. This should be extended to cover other consumer products. It is not yet clear whether the Wood-burning and Multi-fuel Stoves (type approval) Decree needs to be revised (this is also important for fine particulate matter). The use of low-solvent and solvent-free products can be promoted through the regulations on workplace health and safety and the introduction of incentives schemes. 4.2 Environmental quality Emission guidelines, emission targets and air quality Next year, Dutch emissions and emissions forecasts will be drawn up in accordance with the new emission inventory guidelines. Although a detailed comparison still remains to be made between the Netherlands territory method and the new method, it is already known that the latter will reduce the SO 2 and NO x emissions, mainly because most of the emissions from maritime shipping while inshore will no longer count. This could lead to a revision (upwards) of the targets, particularly for SO 2. This may not be the case for NO x where the target for transport is expected to be substantially exceeded and there is potential for the situation to be further exacerbated by unfavourable developments. Furthermore, there is little scope for additional measures in this sector. An upwards adjustment in the SO 2 targets, and a larger or smaller increase in the NO x target for transport (the target will then exclude maritime shipping) will increase concentrations of SO 2, NO 2, O 3 and fine particulate matter and will increase acid and nitrogen deposition. Maritime shipping Maritime shipping while still inshore comprises a very large source of emissions. It is expected to account for approximately Mopeds, scooters and motorcycles emit relatively large quantities of VOC. Something you can easily smell. 20% of SO 2 and 15% of NO x emissions from Netherlands territory in Maritime shipping accounts for 13% of the total acid and nitrogen deposition on Netherlands territory. Levels of NO 2, but also of O 3 and fine particulate matter, are also heavily influenced by marine shipping. The fact that the Netherlands will have difficulty in meeting the air quality standard for NO 2 and that measures to reduce emissions from this sector are very cost-effective means that it is sensible to continue to press for measures to be taken in this sector. Local measures Of all the acidifying and eutrophying substances, the deposition rate for NH 3 is the highest, so that this pollutant causes the most damage to ecosystems in the Netherlands. Extra NH 3 reduction will reduce the excessive acid and nitrogen loads on ecosystems in the Netherlands. An effective way of reducing these loads is to reduce the emissions of NH 3 close to such areas. For this reason it is important that strategies for reducing NH 3 emissions should include geographically specific

42 41 measures. This could be achieved by tightening up of the Ammonia and Livestock Farming Act, by introducing geographical differentiation into national measures (incorporation of manure into the soil, regulations on animal housing, etc.) and by providing for the eventually buying up of manure permits in certain areas. modified in 2003 because after that the first scenario calculations will begin for the preparations for the review of the Directives on air quality and the review of the NEC Directive (CAFE-programme) and the Gothenburg Protocol (see Annex). 4.3 Research Emissions inventories If the Netherlands switches to the internationally agreed method of reporting emissions, the new figures will be inconsistent with those for previous years. The time series will have to be adjusted. This also applies to emissions totals used for domestic purposes, such as the Milieubalans, etc. A study will be carried out next year into the precise differences between the emissions calculated according to the Netherlands territory method and those obtained using the new emission inventory guidelines. Heavy goods vehicle emissions There is strong evidence that the emissions from heavy goods vehicles which are subject to the EURO 2 and EURO 3 standards in practice turn out to have higher emissions than those calculated on the basis of the emission factors of the test cycle. The difference between the calculated and actual emissions may amount to ktonnes. This matter needs to be studied further. Revision of Dutch data Agreements in Europe on further reductions in emissions relating to acidification and continental air pollution must be based on sound science. In preparing agreements of this kind, use is made of all the data used by the different countries to calculate the emissions, dispersion, effects and costs. These include data on energy use, production, transport, agriculture, measures already taken, the costs of measures, policy adopted to date, the location of the emissions, sustainable deposition rates for different ecosystems, etc. After the acidification objectives were evaluated in 2001, sustainable levels of deposition for acid and nitrogen were again reported internationally. Other data were last reviewed in 1998 when the Gothenburg Protocol and the NEC Directive were being prepared. The Dutch data need to be

43 42 The industry sector has achieved the largest proportionate reduction in emissions of fine particulate matter.