Principles of Cost Evaluation for a Bioenergy Plant Application of Science, Engineering and Economics

Transcription

1 Source: US DOE Nov 10 Principles of Cost Evaluation for a Bioenergy Plant Application of Science, Engineering and Economics Dr Nawshad Haque Web: 16 th July 2016 Presentation 2 Dr Nawshad Haque Bioenergy 1

2 About Me A Graduate from Chittagong University MSc from University of Wales PhD in Chemical Engineering from University of Sydney 3 Years work at NZ Forest Research Since 2005, at CSIRO Australia Leads a Team on technology evaluation and LCA research, cosupervises PhD students, offers workshop, courses for universities and industries With Dr Steve Schuck, Manager Bioenergy Australia who I met first in 1997 Dr Nawshad Haque Bioenergy 2

3 Structure of this course Lecture Topic 1 Overview of bioenergy system issues and challenges 2 Feedstock for bioenergy 3 Processing of feedstock 4 Fuel comparison fossil and non-fossil energy 5 Properties of biomass as fuel, physical and chemical 6 Size reduction of biomass fuel chipping equipment and issues 7 Biomass fuel processing including drying 8 Biomass conversion to energy mechanical, thermal, chemical, biological, electrical 9 Plant size, design and flowsheeting 10 Techno-economic evaluation of bioenergy plant 11 Life cycle assessment of bioenergy plant 12 Design of a typical bioenergy system 13 Case study plants study Dr Nawshad Haque Bioenergy 3

4 Learning Objectives What are the key steps and principles to estimate bioenergy plants capital and operating costs? What are the financial indicators that you will be asked for a new investment project? How are such models produced? How can they be interpreted? And what do they tell us to focus on? Source: IBI Survey May 2011 Dr Nawshad Haque Bioenergy 4

5 Process evaluation (economic & environmental) Various process design and optimisation software Equipment sizing and costing database Online sources Supplier s quote Yearly subscription to Cost Estimation Handbooks SimaPro software for LCA work European Eco-invent and other Australian databases Inputs Develop flowsheet, mass & energy balance Equipment sizing Estimate CAPEX, OPEX Process economics Sensitivity analysis LCA studies Process improvement Life cycle assessment Nawshad Haque

6 Techno-economic definition Dr Nawshad Haque Bioenergy 6

7 Capital cost template Direct Plant Costs Basis (DEC = EPC + Freight) $M ex GST ASSUMPTIONS Equipment Purchase EPC $ % Freight % of (EPC) $ % Installation % of (DEC) $ % Instrumentation % of (DEC) $ % Minor piping % of (EPC) $ % Structural % of (EPC) $ % Electrical % of (DEC) $ % Biuldings % of (EPC) $ % Yard Improvements % of (EPC) $ % Service Facilities % of (EPC) $ % HSE Functions % of (EPC) $ % $ Total Indirect Costs Land Engineering Supervision % of (DEC) $ % Legal Expenses % of (DEC) $2.85 4% Construction Expenses % of (DEC) $ % Working Capital Working Capital $ % Fixed Capital Investment Dr Nawshad Haque Bioenergy $

8 Capital cost template Source: Hosseini, Haque et al. (2016) Applied Energy 175 (2016) Dr Nawshad Haque Bioenergy 8

9 Calculations, units A boiler consumes half a cubic metre of natural gas in one hour. What is the power input? The heat energy content of natural gas is 38 MJ per cubic metre. Therefore in one hour the boiler has converted 19 MJ of heat energy power = energy/time = 19/3,600 = 5,300 joules per second = 5.3 kw Thermal boiler efficiency = 75 to 85%, say 80% or 0.8, then actual output = 5.3 x 0.8 = 4.24 kw Dr Nawshad Haque Bioenergy If this boiler you run over 350 days = 350 days x 24 hours = 8,400 hours Total energy you will get from this boiler = 4.24 x 8,400 = 35,616 kwh or 35 MWh (thermal) If you make electricity using a steam turbine, efficiency say 33% or 0.33 Your electricity output = 35 x 0.33 = 11.8 MWh electrical Assume transmission loss = 10% Nett sent-out electricity = 11.8 x 0.9 = 10.6 MWh 9

10 More calculations Assuming electricity use for an Average Australian home ( 6 MWh/year) this 10.6 MWh will give about two households for 1 year How much wood do we need to produce this electricity? Assuming 0.3 MWh/person/a or roughly 1 MWh/household for Bangladesh, it will give over 10 years supply of electricity. In India, it could be 4 years etc. Dr Nawshad Haque Bioenergy 10

11 Calculations (cont..) Assuming electricity use for an Average Australian home this 10.6 MWh will give about two households for 1 year assuming 6 MWh/household/per year Assuming 0.3 MWh/person/a or roughly 1 MWh/household for Bangladesh, it will give over 10 years supply of electricity. In India, it could be 4 years etc. How much wood do we need to produce this electricity? 19 MJ/kg oven-dry wood 15% loss in boiler 16 MJ (thermal)/kg 66% loss in steam turbine 5.32 MJ (electrical)/kg 10% loss in power plant and transmission 4.8 MJ (electrical sent out)/kg 3.6 MJ/kWh electricity (unit conversion) 1.3 kwh/kg oven-dry wood or 1.3 MWh/t oven-dry wood You need: 8.2 tonne (OD) wood More if it is wet wood Dr Nawshad Haque Bioenergy 11

12 Operating cost table Price Unit Amount requiunit Cost Unit Fuel cost 100 taka/40kg Fuel cost 2,500 taka/t 51,549 t/year 1,289 Lakh taka/year Labour 474 taka/hour hour/kwh 10 Lakh taka/year Water 10 taka/kl 22,338 kl/year 2 Lakh taka/year Capital related 1,423 Lakh taka/year Capital depreciation 757 Lakh taka/year Total 3,481 Lakh taka/year Per unit electricity production cost 10 taka/kwh Dr Nawshad Haque Bioenergy 12

13 BiocarbonPlant Flowsheet(100,000 t/y) PYROLYSIS UNIT WATER VAPOUR CHIPPING UNIT COLD AIR OUT HEATING ZONE CONVEYOR ENTRY EXIT SCREENS PYROLYSIS ZONE BED DRYER 515,785 t/y 50,000 t/y WOODY BIOMASS HOPPER HOT AIR IN LIQUID CONDENSATE BIN OVERSIZE WASTE UNWANTED MATERIAL CHARCOAL 100,000 t/y Dr Nawshad Haque Bioenergy 13

14 Capital cost distribution 9% Pyrolysis unit Drying unit 21% 39% Weighbridge, Chipping & Screening Bins & Conveyor system Bio-oil extraction equipment Miscellaneous equipment 18% Storage, handling, utilities, services EPCM 2% 3% 1% 3% 4% Contingency Dr Nawshad Haque Bioenergy 14

15 Cost of charcoal production $/t charcoal Raw biomass cost Transport Labour & utility Interest on capital & maintenance, insurance etc Gross total operating cost = $458/t Carbon value in charcoal $131/t Biooil revenue $57/t Value-in-use additional over PCI coal $65/t Gross total revenue = $253/t charcoal Short fall = $193/t Dr Nawshad Haque Bioenergy 15

16 Recap for the day Techno-economic evaluation is the first step for technical marketing of project Identify and list assumptions for plant size, location Develop a block flow diagrams Undertake mass and energy balance Identify unit processes, equipment and size them for throughput or production capacity Estimate Capital and operating costs Develop cashflow sheet, calculate NPV, IRR, Payback period Undertake sensitivity of inputs and prepare report card Dr Nawshad Haque Bioenergy 16

17 Further reading For equipment - Dr Nawshad Haque Bioenergy 17

18 Dr Nawshad Haque Team Leader t e Nawshad.Haque@csiro.au W Dr Nawshad Haque Energy MINERAL RESOURCES FLAGSHIP t e nhaque.geo@yahoo.com Thank youthank you W