SECURED POWER SUPPLY THROUGH HYBRID ENERGY SYSTEMS

Transcription

1 SECURED POWER SUPPLY THROUGH HYBRID ENERGY SYSTEMS Case study on industrial companies in Germany Dr. Thomas Schlegl Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE 7 th Energyday Brasov, 14 October

2 Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE Business Areas Established: 1981 Staff: 1300 Budget 2013: 86.7 million Photos Energy Efficient Buildings Silicon Photovoltaics III-V and Concentrator Photovoltaics Dye, Organic and Novel Solar Cells PV Modules and Power Plants Solar Thermal Technology Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technology System Integration and Grids Electricity, Heat, Gas Energy Efficient Power Electronics Zero-Emission Mobility Storage Technologies Energy System Analysis 2

3 OUTLINE Motivation for hybrid energy systems (HES) Model approach: HES optimization model Case study Germany: HES installation for an industrial consumer Outlook: economic overview of electrical energy storages Conclusions 3

4 Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) Projections for Germany until 2030 Analysis based on historical learning curves: Onshore wind: already competitive Offshore wind: significantly higher costs PV: decreasing cost reduction Conventional technologies: Increasing LCOE 4 Source: C. Kost, et al, Fraunhofer ISE, 2013

5 Levelized cost of electricity for renewable energies Depending on site conditions for PV and wind Site conditions in Romania: Global horizontal irradiance (GHI): ~ kwh/m 2 a Full load hours (FLH): ~ h/a 5

6 Levelized cost of electricity for renewable energies Projections for until

7 Self supply from renewables energy sources Motivation Increasing electricity costs, Decreasing costs for renewable energy technologies Increased planning reliability of costs for electricity In regions with power shortages: increased electricity supply 7

8 Industrial companies evaluate cost saving options for their electricity supply Example Germany Electricity prices for industrial consumers [ /kwh] Classes of electricity prices depending on demand (Germany) Year Band IA : Cons. < 20 MWh Band IB : 20 MWh < Cons. < 500 MWh Band IC : 500 MWh < Cons. < MWh Band ID : MWh < Cons. < MWh Band IE : MWh < Cons. < MWh Band IF : MWh < Cons. < MWh Band IG : Cons. > MWh* Load [kw] Electricity load and PV generation Hour of day Sunday winter Workday summer PV 8

9 Hybrid energy system optimization model Evaluation of system configurations, operation and economic value Hybrid energy system (HES) consisting of: 9

10 Model structure of HES optimization model Set of input parameters Price of grid electricity Fuel price Capital costs (CAPEX) Operation costs (OPEX) Load Generation profiles of PV and wind (weather data, performance models) Technical data: efficiencies, Mixed-Integer-Program Objective function Minimize annual system costs for electricity supply Costs and revenues (grid) Technology installation (Annuities) Operation costs Constraints Energetic balance/flows Operational constraints Framework conditions Output/Results Investment decisions for optimal system layout Optimal operation strategy Model horizon: 1 year Target: Optimizing HES system layout and operation Deterministic model with perfect foresight 10 Approach based on Kost et al. (2013), Energy Policy

11 Case study: Large industrial company with HES Case description Industrial consumer aims to minimize annual costs of electricity supply Manufacturing company Annual demand: 20 GWh/a Standard load profile (SLP G0) Peak load: 4.77 MW Average load: 2.00 MW Purchase price: electricity price of demand class (~11 ct/kwh) Sale price: electricity pool price (<5 ct/kwh) Site: Close to Stuttgart, South of Germany Annual wind speed at 100 m: 5.7 m/s Annual global horizontal irradiance: 1090 kwh/m² 11 Source: Kost et al. (2013), Energy Policy

12 Scenarios in the case study 1) Status-quo: Existing grid connection 2) Base case: all technologies except wind turbines 3) Wind integration: Base case plus wind turbines possible 4) 100% RES: Generation from RES = annual demand; exchange with grid 5) Stand-alone: Only self-supply possible 12

13 Case study System configuration related to technical and economic framework Scenario results Technology capacity HES design of HES [kw] in MW Status quo Base case Wind 100 % RES Stand alone integration Wind PV Diesel generator Biomass power plant NaS battery Annual costs in Mio ct/kwh Source: Kost et al. (2013), Energy Policy

14 Company targets influence the use of RES Scenario results Case study Electricity from grid depends on constraints/targets Overproduction in 100% RES scenario with grid Stand-alone with dispatchable technologies 14 Source: Kost et al. (2013), Energy Policy RES share 0% 17% 37% 100% 88% Annual energy per technology [GWh] Status quo Base case Wind 100 % RES Stand alone integration Electricity sale Electricity purchase Wind PV Diesel generator Biomass power plant Battery discharge Battery charge

15 Levelized costs of storage (LCOS) Example: 8kWh batteries for households Levelized Cost Of Storage [ ct/kwh] Pb-Gel range LFP range Pb-Gel mean value LFP mean value Annual amount of energy supplied by battery [kwh/a] Courtesy from V. Jülch, Fraunhofer ISE,

16 Levelized costs of storage (LCOS) Opportunities for cost reduction Levelized Cost Of Storage [ ct/kwh] Reduction of investment costs Pb-Gel range Pb-Gel mean value Multi-use of batteries Annual amount of energy supplied by battery [kwh/a] LFP range LFP mean value Courtesy from V. Jülch, Fraunhofer ISE,

17 Multi-use of energy storages System Operators / Utilities Commerce / Industry Households voltage stability continuous power supply emergency power supply / power back up legend established in market frequency stability increased selfconsumption increased selfconsumption market introduction demand side management, peak shaving demand side management, peak shaving demand side management, peak shaving future application 17

18 Summary and conclusions Renewable energy technologies are competitive, decreasing costs will be main driver for renewables Techno-economic HES optimization model, adaptable to specific load structure and site conditions Total annual costs with HES are below the status-quo; economic value depends on cost structure and economic/legal framework conditions Multi-use of batteries can improve economic situation 18

19 Thank you for your kind attention! Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE Dr. Thomas Schlegl 19