Materials challenges for terawatt-scale photovoltaics (PV)

Transcription

1 Materials challenges for terawatt-scale photovoltaics (PV) Wim Sinke ECN Solar Energy, University of Amsterdam, AMOLF, and European Technology & Innovation Platform Photovoltaics 4TU.HTM Symposium Dutch Materials 2017 Beatrixgebouw, Utrecht 13 October

2 Content Thinking big The materials and technologies toolbox Towards ultra-high efficiencies and new applications Economics and market One size (no longer) fits all A view on the future 2

3 Content Thinking big The materials and technologies toolbox Towards ultra-high efficiencies and new applications Economics and market One size (no longer) fits all A view on the future 3

4 Bold thinking is needed: multi-terawatts a.s.a.p. 4

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6 What is needed for impact? World primary/final energy consumption (rounded): 19/12 TW PV power expressed as 1 sun (= 1000 W/m 2 ) e.g. at 25% module efficiency: 250 Wp/m 2 Typical ratio average/peak power (= capacity factor) of PV systems (globally): 0.2 PV 24/7 power: 50 W/m 2 Covering 1% of current global energy requires 5000 km 2 module area (including conversion and storage losses) 6

7 Multi-terawatt deployment needed and possible NREL (US), FhG-ISE (DE) & AIST (JP) Science, Vol. 356, Issue 6334, (2017) 7

8 The first terawatt is in sight now Projected growth in installed PV capacity

9 Content Thinking big The materials and technologies toolbox Towards ultra-high efficiencies and new applications Economics and market One size (no longer) fits all A view on the future 9

10 Best research-cell efficiencies: the foundation of module efficiency improvement Interactive version on:

11 Maximizing efficiency Selected record cell architectures wafersilicon cells thinfilm cells Albert Polman, Mark Knight, Erik C. Garnett, Bruno Ehrler, Wim C. Sinke, Science 15 Apr 2016: Vol. 352, Issue 6283, DOI: /science.aad4424

12 Commercial PV technologies The common view 12

13 Commercial PV technologies Current situation Standard ( flat plate ) use: wafer-based crystalline silicon TexelEnergie Avancis Ridder Solar Module efficiencies 16 22% Standard ( flat plate ) use: thin films (CdTe, CIGS, Si) Module efficiencies 8 17% FhG-ISE Abengoa/Concentrix Concentrator use (sun tracking): III-V tandems and Si Module efficiencies 25 35% 13

14 Today s commercial workhorse Simplicity is difficult to beat in cost 180 m 14

15 PV technology market shares 15

16 PV technology market shares )

17 PV technology market shares )

18 Content Thinking big The materials and technologies toolbox Towards ultra-high efficiencies and new applications Economics and market One size (no longer) fits all A view on the future 18

19 Module efficiency (%) Commercial module efficiencies Gradual but robust increase silicon thin films Silicon - high-end mono Silicon - standard mono Silicon - standard multi Thin-film CIGS Thin-film CdTe 5 Thin-film asi/µcsi 0 Thin-film asi Year 19

20 Striving for perfection Record cells compared Albert Polman, Mark Knight, Erik C. Garnett, Bruno Ehrler, Wim C. Sinke Science 15 Apr 2016: Vol. 352, Issue 6283, DOI: /science.aad4424

21 Striving for perfection Record cells compared Albert Polman, Mark Knight, Erik C. Garnett, Bruno Ehrler, Wim C. Sinke Science 15 Apr 2016: Vol. 352, Issue 6283, DOI: /science.aad4424

22 Module efficiency (%) Towards high module efficiencies The first step: closing the lab/fab gap siliciu silicon m silicon thin thin films films Silicon - high-end mono Silicon - standard mono Silicon - standard multi Thin-film CIGS Thin-film CdTe 5 Thin-film asi/µcsi 0 Thin-film asi Year 22

23 Striving for perfection Record cells compared Albert Polman, Mark Knight, Erik C. Garnett, Bruno Ehrler, Wim C. Sinke Science 15 Apr 2016: Vol. 352, Issue 6283, DOI: /science.aad4424

24 Module efficiency (%) Towards high module efficiencies The first step: closing the lab/fab gap siliciu silicon m silicon thin thin films films practical limit for single-material modules Silicon - high-end mono Silicon - standard mono Silicon - standard multi Thin-film CIGS Thin-film CdTe Thin-film asi/µcsi Thin-film asi Year 24

25 Developments in the lab Very-high efficiency concepts Very low-cost concepts & and technologies for new applications UCLA (VS)

26 Module efficiency (%) Towards high module efficiencies The next step: tandems? siliciu silicon m silicon thin thin films films Silicon - high-end mono Silicon - standard mono Silicon - standard multi Thin-film CIGS hybrid tandems? (silicon with dedicated thin film) 5 0 Thin-film CdTe Thin-film asi/µcsi Thin-film asi Year 26

27 Top cell candidate: methyl ammonium lead halide perovskite Pb I CH 3 NH 3 CH 3 NH 3 PbI 3 27

28 Silicon technology generations Gen1 Limited by (a.o.) extrinsic Si material quality: Multi mono, HP multi; p n Gen2 Limited by surface & interface quality: Advanced surface passivation; passivating contacts; heterojunctions today today Gen3 Limited by intrinsic Si material quality: Thin wafers + light trapping (to SQ) Gen4 Limited by Si bandgap Tandems (beyond SQ) 28

29 Silicon technology generations Gen1 Limited by (a.o.) extrinsic Si material quality: Multi mono, HP multi; p n Gen2 Limited by surface & interface quality: Advanced surface passivation; passivating contacts; heterojunctions today today Gen3 Limited by intrinsic Si material quality: Thin wafers + light trapping (to SQ) Gen3? Limited by Si bandgap Tandems (beyond SQ) 29

30 Commercial PV technologies: an alternative view 30

31 Content Thinking big The materials and technologies toolbox Towards ultra-high efficiencies and new applications Economics and market One size (no longer) fits all A view on the future 31

32 From cell to module: current approach watt-peak (Wp) 32

33 Price-experience curve PV modules Combined effects of volume and innovation 33

34 Price of roof systems (Germany) -75% (Bron: Fraunhofer ISE) 34

35 Efficiency matters Cost structure electricity generation costs of cells or cell layers costs of cells to modules area-related system costs power-related and fixed system costs operation and maintenance costs cost of capital 35

36 Efficiency matters Cost structure electricity generation higher efficiency costs of cells or cell layers costs of cells to modules area-related system costs power-related and fixed system costs operation and maintenance costs cost of capital 36

37 Spectacular development in generation cost 37

38 Game-changing price reduction of solar energy Fossil fuels (29 October 2014)

39 Power Purchasing Agreement (PPA) price offers 2,4 3,6 /kwh

40 Global cumulative capacity (in GWp)

41 Installed capacity NL (in MWp)

42 Contribution of PV to electricity use per country Source: IEA PVPS (2017) 42

43 Content Thinking big The materials and technologies toolbox Towards ultra-high efficiencies and new applications Economics and market One size (no longer) fits all A view on the future 43

44 Volume by and with diversity Exasun Twente Zon Lightyear Heijmans/AERspire ZigZagSolar Tempress Artist impression A37 (Studio Marco Vermeulen) Solar Park Ameland Lightyear W.J. van Graven, Lisse Amsterdam, Sunfloat, Tempress en ECN

45 Freedom of shape driehoek-paneel- 100wp-detail Julianadorp, NL Photo Paul Pex 45

46 Aesthetic quality ZEP BV Exasun Heijmans/AERspire

47 Flexibility & light weight HyET Solar (NL) / BrummenEnergie

48 Solar energy meets Dutch Design Solar modules made to your liking ECN, UNStudio, TS Visuals, Aldowa, Design Innovation Group and Hogeschool van Amsterdam; project Dutch Solar Design.

49 Solar energy meets Dutch Design Solar modules made to your liking ECN, UNStudio, TS Visuals, Aldowa, Design Innovation Group and Hogeschool van Amsterdam; project Dutch Solar Design.

50 Solar energy meets Dutch Design Solar modules made to your liking ECN, UNStudio, TS Visuals, Aldowa, Design Innovation Group and Hogeschool van Amsterdam; project Dutch Solar Design.

51 Solutions for B and C locations Shade-linear modules Prototype of shade-linear module (ECN)

52 Content Thinking big The materials and technologies toolbox Towards ultra-high efficiencies and new applications Economics and market One size (no longer) fits all A view on the future 52

53 Selected challenges in materials research for terawatt-scale photovoltaics Stable, high-quality, low-cost, sustainable: Wide (& narrow) bandgap absorbers for tandem PV Selective IR and UV absorbers for PV windows Transparent and non-metal conductors and carrier-selective contacts Low-dimensional materials for new optoelectronic properties Encapsulants, anti-soiling coatings, support structures + closing materials cycles (design for sustainability) 53

54 Use of fossil fuels The (solar) energy transformation we, now solar energy era solar energy era Year

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