Technologies enable Energy System Transition. Dr Heli Antila, CTO Fortum 22 March 2017

Transcription

1 Technologies enable Energy System Transition Dr Heli Antila, CTO Fortum 22 March 2017

2 Energy system in transition Fortum strategy Case examples Energy production Consumers and Energy system 2

3 Transition towards Solar Economy is ongoing and speed in increasing 3

4 Future energy system features: Security of Supply a limited resource Energy a non limited resource Clear Seasonality Wind most competitive Intermittent power EQUATOR Low seasonality PV most competitive Intermittent power 4

5 Solar more competitive in sunbelt, wind in North in retail, solar compelling everywhere, also in the Nordics World Solar and Wind LCOE s using newest publicly available data Wind more competitive and fits to seasonal demand 62 /MWh 46 /MWh 80 /MWh 47 /MWh 45 /MWh 34 /MWh 92 /MWh 52 /MWh /MWh 49 /MWh 80 /MWh 47 /MWh /MWh 32 /MWh 44 /MWh 26 /MWh /MWh 50 /MWh 51 /MWh 30 /MWh Morocco 26.8 /MWh /MWh 49 /MWh Solar more competitive and fits to seasonal demand 51 /MWh 30 /MWh /MWh 38 /MWh Chile 26.0 /MWh 38 /MWh 22 /MWh /MWh 44 /MWh 44 /MWh 34 /MWh 43 /MWh 25 /MWh 45 /MWh 26 /MWh 5 NOTE: Solar and wind resources and CAPEX may largely vary by individual projects, even on same region, thus impacting LCOE. Hence, figures are indicative and do not aim to present our geographical preferences for given technologies but rather illustrate progress of wind and solar globally, long-term. PV LCOE assumptions based on EU PV Technology Platform report and EU PVSEC 2015 paper. Wind CAPEX and OPEX Sweco: Incitamenten för investeringar i kraftproduktion, Capacity factors from BNEF LCOE low case. Indicative wind capacity factor for Russia from IFC Advisory: Services Russia s New Capacity-based Renewable Energy Support Scheme LCOE assumptions: 7% real WACC CAPEX, OPEX globally uniform; lifetime solar 30y, wind 25y Assumption that capacity factor will increase for solar 7,5% and wind by 15% from 2016 to % higher CAPEX for the rest of the world compared to low cost Nordic Uniform 20% corporate tax assumed

6 Average power prices in Nordics and Germany were very close in December 2014 Nordic (monthly (hourly Nord Nord Pool Pool spot spot system system price) price) German (monthly (hourly EPEX EPEX spot spot price) price) 6 Source: Nord Pool Spot, Bloomberg Finance LP

7 but hourly prices were very different! Price pattern is getting more important than average price Nordic (hourly Nord Pool spot system price) German (hourly EPEX spot price) December 2014 Source: Nord Pool Spot, Bloomberg Finance LP 7

8 Reality in Germany and it is not getting easier March 2014 Electricity generation in Germany in March 2014 Solar Wind Conventional MW Installed capacity 31 Dec 14 Average Generation in March 14 Solar Wind /MWh 80 Hourly power market price in Germany in March Source: Electricity generation graph: Bruno Burger, Fraunhofer ISE, price curve: Bloomberg Finance LP, Wind capacity: EWEA

9 Energy system in transition Fortum strategy Case examples Energy production Consumers and Energy system 9

10 Fortum For a cleaner world 10

11 Energy system in transition Fortum strategy Case examples Energy production Consumers and Energy system 11

12 Wave power Fortum follows closely three different technologies Wave power has potential to cover 10 % of global power consumption Wave power is now in demonstration phase Demonstration project in Sweden in co-operation and using technology by Seabased 5 year EU Horizon 2020 project with Wello Penguin technology in Great Britain AW-Energy has been operating its pilot wave energy power plant in Portugal since 2012 and plans to deploy a full scale commercial power unit utilizing WaveRoller near shore technology during 2017 Seabased Wello* Penguin AW Energy* Waveroller 12 *Fortum is shareholder in the company

13 City Solution s ambition is to maximise added value of waste and biomass in its operations Stockholm Open district heating concept Naantali Co-owned Multifuel CHP (ready 2017) Brista and Högdalen Co-owned Waste CHP Värtan Co-owned Bio-CHP Kumla Waste treatment facility Stockholm Brista Högdalen Värtan Nyborg Kumla Joensuu Riihimäki Naantali Järvenpää Espoo Klaipeda Zabrze Pärnu Tartu Jelgava Częstochowa Joensuu Bio oil production at CHP Järvenpää Bio-CHP Riihimäki waste treatment + circular economy village Espoo Heat recovery from water treatment facility Bio Coal-bio Waste Other Co-owned Espoo Recovering waste heat from data centres Jelgava Bio-CHP Espoo Geothermic DH with St1 (ready 2017) Finland Electric vehicles charging poles, Solar panels Pärnu Bio-CHP Klaipeda Waste-CHP Nyborg Biggest hazardous waste unit in Europe Zabrze Waste/coal/bio- CHP (ready 2018) Czestochowa Coal/bio-CHP Espoo Heat recovery from hospital (ready 2016) 13

14 Energy system in transition Fortum strategy Case examples Energy production Consumers and Energy system 14

15 District heating demand response Heat consumption can be controlled based on hourly heat price signal Buildings act as heat storages without variation in inside temperatures Pilots have been carried out during two heating seasons 15

16 New Fortum Fiksu Excellent user experience Automated heating control Easy follow up via mobile phone Intuitive and easy to use UI Presenting valuable information about your home and heating costs 16

17 In Fortum s groundbreaking VPP-pilot household loads are sold to balance the system in the Frequency Containment Reserve (N) 17

18 Fortum is building a Virtual Power Plant business for distributed demand-side resources, either b2c or b2b Energy markets competence Hydro optimization Market forecasts 24/7 physical trading desk Good position in Nordics VPP The VPP-platform is a software solution to connect, monitor, optimize and control distributed loads and storages Customer Access 1.3 million Nordic retail customers Existing and developing customer offerings Good contacts to major commercial, industrial and governmental counterparties in home markets National TSO balancing Intraday markets Fortum s trading Local DSO balancing Virtual power plant Customer experience and value? 18

19 Charge & Drive - The Cloud Based Charging Business System Customer experience (EMP) Customer app, with map and payment functionality. Also SMS & RFID payment Mypages for user account management and charging history with receipts 24/7 customer service Cross-European Roaming Infrastructure Management (CPO) Integration of leading smart chargers Remote monitoring and steering of charging networks Business Management Easy to integrate to existing system Real-Time Dashboards and dynamic reports Integrated Sales and Marketing tools 19

20 Fortum HorsePower New bedding and manure service for horse stables The customer chooses a bedding material regular deliveries Regular manure pick-up New solid biofuel to internal and external customers Transport and feeding to plant process Sawdust Cutter shavings Wood pellets 20

21 Thank you