The German Energy Transition: Energiewende

Transcription

1 The German Energy Transition: Energiewende Status quo, vision and challenges with a Focus on the Power Sector DR. PATRICK GRAICHEN BERLIN,

2 The Energy and Climate Challenge If we want to keep the global warming below 2 C.we need to get the energy sector fully decarbonised by 2050 while maintaining Energy Security Economic Viability -> HOW DO WE MAKE THAT POSSIBLE? Berlin, Dr. Patrick Graichen 2

3 The nuclear phase-out in Germany Source: AG Energiebilanzen, Öko-Institut Berlin, Dr. Patrick Graichen 3

4 The good news (1) Renewables are an innovative technology that is now costcompetitive with fossil fuels example wind energy Wind Turbines today 40 times more powerful than 20 years ago Berlin, Dr. Patrick Graichen 4

5 The good news (2) Renewables are an innovative technology that is now costcompetitive with fossil fuels example solar energy Price for Solar Systems has Decreased by >60% since 2006 Berlin, Dr. Patrick Graichen 5

6 Wind and Solar Power are Cheaper than other Decarbonisation Options (Nuclear, CCS) and are in the same cost region as new coal and gas! Levelized Cost of Electricity, EUR/MWh Wind onshore PV Wind offshore 0 RES Nuclear CCS Coal Gas Berlin, Dr. Patrick Graichen 6

7 By 2050, Germany wants to cut emissions by 80 to 95% - by boosting renewables and energy efficiency Berlin, Dr. Patrick Graichen 7

8 Share of Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources in Germany and Future Targets Berlin, Dr. Patrick Graichen 8

9 The Key Insight for the Energiewende: It s all About Wind and Solar RES-Power Generation in Germany, TWh PV Wind onshore Other Renewables Wind offshore Biomass and Biogas Hydro Power * 2030* % Renewables 7% 17% 43% 63% % Wind and PV 29% 48% * Forecast by German regulator Bundesnetzagentur Berlin, Dr. Patrick Graichen 9

10 The challenges ahead (1) Flexibility is the new paradigm of the energy market! GW Key Flexibility Options: Fossil Power Plants incl. CHP Demand Side Management Grids Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa Su Curtailment of Wind and PV Demand Photovoltaic Fossil Power Hydro Wind Onshore/Offshore Biomass Storage 10

11 The challenges ahead (2) We need to secure peak load without wind and solar but fortunately that does not cost much! GW Mo Di Mi Do Fr Sa So Demand Photovoltaic Demand: ~80 GW Wind: ~4 GW PV: 0 GW Fossil Power Hydro Wind Onshore/Offshore Biomass In 2020, GW controllable resources are needed which operate less than 200 hours a year Open cycle gas turbines can meet this demand cheaply (35 70 million EUR per year per GW) Demand-side measures and European resource sharing will further reduce cost 11

12 The challenges ahead (3): Build new grids to better connect North and South Germany Berlin, Dr. Patrick Graichen Source: WDR, based on Netzentwicklungsplan

13 What about other countries? Berlin, Dr. Patrick Graichen 13

14 There is wind available all over the world Berlin, Dr. Patrick Graichen 14

15 and almost everywhere there is more sun than in Germany! Berlin, Dr. Patrick Graichen 15

16 1. It s all about Wind and Solar Wind and PV are the cheapest renewable energy sources The potential of other renewable energy sources is limited > weather dependent > variable > only capital expenditure How to balance demand and supply? How to minimise costs? How to realise the Energiewende in the European context? TECHNICAL SYSTEM 2. Base-Load power plants disappear altogether, and natural gas and coal operate only part-time 3. There is plenty of flexibility but so far it has no value 4. Grids are cheaper than storage facilities 5. Securing supply in times of peak load does not cost much 6. Integration of the heat sector makes sense MARKET DESIGN AND REGULATION 7. Today s electricity market is about trading kilowatt hours it does not guarantee system reliability 8. Wind and PV cannot be principally refinanced via marginal-cost based markets 9. A new Energiewende Market t is required 10. The Energiewende Market must actively engage the demand-side 11. It must be considered in the European context Berlin, Dr. Patrick Graichen 12. A saved kilowatt is the most cost-effective kilowatt 16