Modeling China s Energy Future

Transcription

1 Modeling China s Energy Future A coordinated analysis between Tsinghua Global Climate Change Institute Princeton Environmental Institute and Clean Energy Commercialization Dr.Pat DeLaquil Presented to the Tsinghua University BP-CEC MARKAL Workshop April 14, 2006

2 CCICED Addressed Four Key Questions: How can China Meet its projected demand for energy services? (Quadruple GDP by ) Meet projected liquid fuel needs, especially for transportation, while not becoming over-dependent on imported energy? Reduce urban and rural air pollution while meeting its projected demands for energy services? Meet requirements for lower carbon emissions that may be implemented due to global warming concerns?!2

3 China MARKAL Model Structure Resources Conversion Technologies Final Energy Carriers End-Use Technologies Demand Sectors Coal Oil Natural Gas Coal Bed Methane Uranium 21 Combustion/CHP 6 IGCC power/chp 9 Poly-Generation 10 Synthetic Fuels 1 Coal Wash & 1 Coke 2 Heat Plants 1 Oil Refining 2 Fuel Cell Power/CHP Coal Refined Liquids Nat. Gas & CBM Synthesis Gas 16 Industrial processes 4 Industrial heat processes 2 Industrial electricity & non-fuel 6 Commercial space heat 6 Commercial air conditioning 5 Urban cooking & water heat 2 Urban air conditioning Industrial Ammonia Aluminum Cement Paper Steel Other Commercial Air conditioning Lighting Space heating Urban residential Air conditioning Cooking & Water heating Lighting & Appliances Space heating Biomass 4 Hydrogen Production 1 Ethanol Production Electricity 7 Urban space heat 3 Lighting & Appliances Rural residential Cooking & Water heating Lighting & Appliances Space heating Geothermal Hydro Solar Wind 5 Gasifier/Digester 1 Nuclear Power 1 Geothermal Power 2 Hydro Power 2 Solar Power 2 Wind Power Heat Bio-Gas Hydrogen 6 Rural cooking & water heat 7 Rural space heat 4 Agricultural processes 12 Passenger transport 8 Freight transport Agricultural Electric Motors Agro-Processing Irrigation Farming Machines Transportation Air Ship Pipeline Rail Automobile / Bus Truck!3

4 Methodology for Projecting Energy Service Demands Future energy demands projections were based on comparisons with historical data for various OECD countries at similar levels of GDP per capita Key assumption was that by China as a whole will have developed to the levels of energy services that are characterized key OECD countries in the mid-1990s Cross-country comparisons were selected to minimize the differences in economic structure, demographics, geography, culture, development path, etc. The methodology ties the projection of energy service demands to the level of economic development toward which China aspires in the future!4

5 Projections for Primary Fossil Energy Demand in China Issues and Options (WB/Jt Study Group, 1994) This Study Low Efficiency China Country Study (USDOE/SSTC/Tsinghua, 1999) Primary Fossil Energy Use (Exajoules) International Energy Outlook (EIA,, 2001) China Carbon Scenarios (LBNL Projection, 2001) This Study Baseline This Study High Transport Energy Development Strategy (ERI, 1999) 20.0 Actual Use National Response Strategy (E-W Ctr/ANL/Tsinghua, 1994) !5

6 Potential Domestic Fossil Fuel Supplies 70,000 60,000 Coal Oil Natural gas CBM CBM w/co2 stimulation 50,000 Petajoules 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Cumulative - Proved reserves Estimated reserves Coal (billion t) Oil (billion t) Natural gas (trillion m3) to 62 CBM (trillion m3) to 35 CBM w/co2 injection (trillion m3) ? - Year!6

7 Environmental and Energy- Security Constraints Sulfur Emissions Constraint SO2 emission level for is government target of 16.5 Mt constraint of 10.4 Mt brings China to same level of SO2 emission per GJ of coal consumption as US in Million Tons SO Sulfur Dioxide Emission Constraint 0.0 Energy Security Constraints Imported oil and natural gas constrained to be 30% to 50% of total oil and gas fuel consumption in any given year. Carbon Emissions Constraints WRE emissions scenario Stable CO 2 (ppmv) Cumulative CO 2, (Gt C) Global China s allowance China s allowable C emissions, - (Gt C) High Medium Low Very low !7

8 Two Technology Scenarios BASE TECHNOLOGIES Coal used primarily by existing or advanced direct combustion technologies Energy end-use technologies include current best energyefficiency options Renewable energy technology limited to those currently commercial Carbon sequestration options are not available Available starting in or ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES Advanced poly-generation technologies based on gasification of coal and biomass Advanced high-efficiency industrial processes Advanced renewable energy technologies Urban residential demand technologies Hybrid-electric and fuel cell vehicles Carbon capture and sequestration options Available starting between and!8

9 Technology Characteristics Advanced Techs were phased in over 3, 5-year periods at 1.5, 1.25 and 1.1 times their mature plant cost Efficiency (% LHV) Capital Cost ($/ kw) Fixed O&M ($/kw-yr) Variable O&M ($/ kwh) SO 2 (gr/ kwh) BASE Technologies Coal, steam plant with FGD (500 MW) , Natural gas, gas turbine combined cycle Nuclear , Wind, large-scale with long-dist. transmission ADVANCED Technologies Coal, integrated gasification/combined cycle , Coal, gasification-based, with CO 2 capture , Natural gas, combined cycle with CO 2 capture , H 2, distributed fuel cell combined heat/power Biomass, electricity and DME co-production , !9

10 Base case oil imports are 435 Mt/yr in while AdvTech oil imports peak at about 75 Mt/yr in. Transport drives Base case oil demand. Natural gas imports are reduced from 120 bcm (Base) to 70 bcm (AdvTech) Domestic and Imported Oil Use 600 Million tonnes Imported Domestic Base Technologies BASE CASE Revised Transport Demand Advanced AdvTech Technologies with All Caps SO2, 30% Oil&Gas, 66 Gt C Caps!10

11 AdvTech scenario employs a variety of synthetic fuels: coal gas for urban heating and cooking; methanol, F-T liquids and later hydrogen for transportation; DME from biomass for rural heating & cooking 14,000 12,000 Gas & Syn. Fuel by Type Petajoules 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 N. gas Methanol Hydrogen CBM Coal gas Coal Liquids DME F-T Liquids Ethanol 0 Base Technologies BASE CASE Revised Transport Demand Projection Advanced AdvTech with All Technologies Caps and Coal Imports SO2, 30% Oil&Gas, 66 Gt C Caps!11

12 In AdvTech scenario, coal combustion is replaced by coal gasification and CO2 sequestration. Biomass and wind power plants make significant contributions. CO2 used for enhanced resource recovery of CBM Electricity Production by Fuel/Technology Geothermal Solar Wind Biomass Hydropower H2 Fuel Cell TWh NG Fuel Cell NG Combustion Nuclear Oil Coal Gasif. w CO2 Seq. Coal Gasification Coal Combustion Base Technologies BASE CASE Revised Transport Demand Projection Advanced AdvTech with All Caps Technologies and Coal Imports SO2, 30% Oil&Gas, 66 Gt C Caps!12

13 AdvTech scenario uses renewable energy in - period, which slows coal use. Coal gasification technologies start in but grow rapidly after when plant costs mature Total Primary Energy Supply EFFICIENCY Exajoules RENEWABLES NUCLEAR CBM NGAS OIL COAL Gasification COAL Combustion 20 0 Base Technologies BASE CASE Revised Transport Demand Projection AdvTech with All Caps and Coal Imports Advanced Technologies SO2, 30% Oil&Gas, 66 Gt C Caps!13

14 AdvTech: CO2 emissions from electricity generation are reduced by renewables, CO2 sequestration and by fuel-switching in the industrial, commercial and residential sectors. Million tonnes carbon 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Carbon Emissions Total Coml & Res Electric Industry Transport Carbon Sequestered 0 Base Technologies BASE CASE Revised Transport Demand Projection Advanced AdvTech with All Technologies Caps and Coal Imports SO2, 30% Oil&Gas, 66 Gt C Caps!14

15 AdvTech cases can achieve SO2, Oil30 and CO2 targets for lower cost than only achieving SO2 targets with the Base technologies. System Cost Impact ADVTECH-SO2-OIL3O-C66 ADVTECH-SO2-OIL3O ADVTECH-SO2 ADVTECH BASE-SO2 BASE -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Percent Change from BASE!15

16 Conclusions AdvTech strategy offers the opportunity to achieve China s sustainable development goals at lower cost than a business-as-usual approach AdvTech strategy also provides a lower-cost path to deep reductions in CO 2 emissions To realize the 3E s: Economic Development, Energy Security and Environmental Protection Coal use must shift from combustion to gasification based technologies, which enables the production of clean synthetic liquid and gas fuels and significantly reduces the cost of CO 2 capture and sequestration Gas and liquid fuels from coal and biomass need to play increasingly important roles in the energy economy Energy efficiency and Renewable energy need to take on significant roles Modest contributions from nuclear power can help achieve goals, but nuclear power is not essential if energy efficiency is stressed!16

17 Recent Developments in China Target 15% of energy consumption from renewable energies by Commit US$185 billion investment Implementation of Renewable Energy Law Provide tax incentives for local manufacturing Bio-fuels Corn ethanol Bio-diesel Coal gasification-polygeneration Shandong Fischer Tropsche liquids Ningsha Dimethyl ether (DME)!17

18 References Transforming Coal for Sustainability: A Strategy for China, Report by the Task Force on Energy Strategies and Technologies to the China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development, 1 September 2003 Pat DeLaquil, Chen Wenying and Eric Larson Modeling China s Energy Future, Proceedings of the Workshop on Coal Gasification for Clean and Secure Energy for China, August 2003, Tsinghua University, Beijing (available from CCICED Secretariat) Eric Larson, Synthetic Fuel Production from Indirect Coal Liquefaction ibid. Zhou Dadi Energy Policy in China in Coming 20 years, ibid. Thomas B. Johansson, Energy for Sustainability: a Broad Strategy for China ibid. Robert H. Williams and Eric Larson A Compsrison of Direct and Indirect Liquefaction Technologies for Making Fluid Fuels from Coal ibid.!18