Assessment of the Corridor Potentia l

Transcription

1 Assessment of the Corridor Potentia l Dolf Gielen Abu Dhabi, 22 June 2013

2 IRENA Africa Energy Pla nning Progra mme Inventory of existing power plant Projections of electricity demand and supply for 2030 Pan-Africa power trade model Power pool models with country detail WAPP ready SAPP ready East Africa DRAFT CAPP, COMELEC in preparation In cooperation with University of Cape Town and Technical University Stockholm (KTH) Goal: provide planning tools, assist in capacity building, provide investment advice 2

3 January 2012 June 2013 NEW June 2013 NEW 3

4 Power genera tion mix 2009 SAPP East Africa Nuclear Gas 4% 1% Hydro 11% BiomassDist. Oil 1% 0% Biomass Geother 1% mal 6% Dist. Diesel 5% Coal 1% Oil 26% Oil 1% 322 TWh 52 GW Coal 82% Hydro 47% Gas 14% Wind 0% 29 TWh 8.5 GW 4 Excluding Egypt: 140 TWh, 25 GW

5 Rationale for Corridor Africa has a significant untapped hydro potential Also emerging opportunities for other renewables eg wind Centers of supply and demand are far apart Trade makes economic sense if total production and transmission cost are reduced Imports compete with various national generation options Interconnectors can create win-win: revenues and reduced electricity cost Interconnectors strengthen the grid DC transmission lines can be economic over long distances For example Inga South Africa connection under development Ethiopia-Kenya DC line 5

6 COST OF RENEWABLE POWER Cost effective today in many situations January

7 RE cost in Africa Project cost generally high High cost of capital 15-20% Few commercial projects, many multipurpose development projects with high cost per kw Issues of scope: many projects require new roads, new grid connections Remote sites with high quality resources Transmission makes economic sense High volume lines 2-4 cents/kwh from Addis to Johannesburg AC for shorter distances, DC for long distance Increasing number of projects in Africa Reduces supply cost and reduces variability issues Regulatory issues deserve more attention 7

8 Renewa ble Energy Potentia ls 2008 energy use: 600 TWh electricity, 655 Mtoe prima ry New datasets prepared for solar, wind potentials; biomass under preparation Potentials Hydro TWh/yr Technical 900 TWh/yr Economic Wind TWh/yr 800 TWh/yr Economic Solar TWh/yr Geothermal < 100 TWh/yr 7-15 GW Wind Hydro Biomass Geothermal Marine Solar Excellent Good Very good Biomass >2 600 TWh/yr Source: BMU,

9 GW Exa mple Hydropower: potentia l up to Existing Potential large hydro Potential small hydro Central East North South Source: IRENA 9

10 Angola Botswana DRC Lesotho Malawi Mozambique Namibia Swaziland Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe Burundi Djibouti Erithrea Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda Somalia Sudan Uganda GW Angola Botswana DRC Lesotho Malawi Mozambique Namibia Swaziland Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe Burundi Djibouti Erithrea Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda Somalia Sudan Uganda GW Capacity 2010 and (for EAC 2009) South Africa RE 0 South Africa Dist.Solar PV Mini Hydro Dist. Oil Wind Solar Thermal Solar PV Geothermal Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 10

11 Regional trade in 2030 [TWh] Major demand centres in South Africa, Egypt High GDP scenario Low GDP scenario Source: Howells et al, forthcoming 11

12 Southern Africa Power Pool 2030 (Ren Scenario) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass Wind Solar PV Solar Thermal Net Imports Dist. Oil Mini Hydro Dist.Solar PV 12

13 East Africa, 2030 (REN Scenario) 100% 50% 0% Burundi Djibouti Eritrea Rwanda Somalia Ethiopia Kenya Sudan Uganda -50% Coal HFO Diesel Gas Hydro Geothermal Biomass Wind Solar Thermal Solar PV Dist. Diesel Dist. Hydro Dist. PV Net Imports 13

14 Key Messa ges Africa has an excellent RE potential Renewables can provide a solution to some of the power sector challenges Regional cooperation and interconnectors can help to raise the renewables share Especially relevant for large hydro and perhaps wind Power pool tools are available for further analysis upon request Elaboration master plans Technology and resource potential data IRENA can assist in capacity building for energy planning 14

15 Thank you! Dolf Gielen 15

16 Power generation capacities 2009 Nuclear 3% Gas 2% Hydro 18% SAPP Oil 5% Geotherma l 2% East Africa Biomass 1% Dist. Diesel 3% Oil 30% Coal 72% Hydro 53% Coal 1% Gas 10% 52 GW 8.5 GW 16

17 Regiona l cla ssifica tion South: Angola; Botswana; Lesotho; Madagascar; Malawi; Mauritius; Mozambique; Namibia;, Seychelles; South Africa; Swaziland; Zambia; Zimbabwe East: Burundi; Kenya; Rwanda; Tanzania; Uganda (all EAC); Djibouti; Eritrea; Ethiopia; Somalia; Sudan North: Algeria; Egypt; Libya; Mauritania; Morocco; Tunisia; Western Sahara Central: Cameroon; Central African Republic; Chad; Congo; Democratic Republic of Congo; Equatorial Guinea; Gabon; Rwanda; Sao Tome et Principe. West: Benin, Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, Cote d`ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Togo 17