ACES Conference, Naples FL December 9 th 2008

Transcription

1 Upper Rio Grande Karl Benedict (UNM) Arriana Brand (SAHRA) David S. Brookshire (UNM) Craig D. Broadbent (UNM) Jeff Cavner(UNM) Mark Dixon (USD) David Goodrich (SAHRA) Kevin Lansey (UA) Molly McIntosh (BMF & I) Holly Richter (UA) Steve Stewart (SAHRA) Julie Stromberg (ASU) Jennifer Thacher (UNM) ACES Conference, Naples FL December 9 th 2008 Upper San Pedro SAHRA Science Impact Laboratory for Policy and Economics (SILPE)

2 EPA

3 ASSERTION High-impact successes in joint policy-research efforts have often occurred due to acute needs of a place or watershed What is needed is time to develop/build: Trust -- essential to the process (=time) The information infrastructure Interdisciplinary / interagency partnerships (research enterprise) Solid scientific foundation Policy applications with stakeholders This foundation is essential for scientifically based ecological valuation as no single agency has the depth & breadth to do it alone While we may not be able to afford to do this everywhere we have to do it extremely well in some places and test transferability and the limits of valuation in locations with less science & information

4 Two Study Areas: San Pedro River and Middle Rio Grande Flows north from Cananea Mexico to the Gila River in Arizona San Pedro Riparian National Cons. Area 40 miles in length 56,000 Acres A semi-arid flyway for resident and migratory birds Riparian vegetation consists of: Cottonwood Salt Cedar Mesquite River Grasses Stretch of river from Cochiti Dam to San Acacia gage Approximately 40 miles of river Includes the Rio Grande State Park and Bosque del Apache Habitat for birds 277+ year round, 146+ migrants Acquired data set from Hawks Aloft Riparian Vegetation consists of: Cottonwood Salt Cedar Russian olive River Grasses

5 ATTRIBUTES OF THE SAN PEDRO BASIN Microcosm of local, state, and international water & ecology issues and a good place to do research Heterogeneous: Strong Topo., Veg., cultural gradients Ft. Huachuca largest employer (>10,000) in S. Arizona (Payroll > $1.2 billion/yr) Cananea Mine: 2-3% world s copper One of world s most ecologically diverse areas 1st Congressionally designated National Riparian Conservation Area (SPRNCA) San Pedro River Sierra Vista Ft. Huachuca Tombstone USA MEXICO Cananea Apache Powder Superfund site (Nitrogen) near St. David 0 50 km First application of International Environ. Law (via NAFTA side accords) in the US Groundwater is sole source of water for human use and sustains wetland/riparian flow and birds

6 Trends in SW Population Trends in San Pedro Low Flow Santa Cruz, Pop. And SP low Flows 1940s Santa Cruz R. near Tucson 1980s

7 Evolution of Research / Partnerships in the SP USDA - ARS Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (1953-Pres. Physical / watershed science, EPA Fiducial Site, NASA-TERRA validation site) MONSOON 90, WALNUT GULCH 92, NASA-EOS ( Interdisciplinary physical science) SALSA Program ( Interdiscplinary physical and biological science begin outreach & integration) EPA (ORD, Region 9) ARS IAG ( 98-Pres. 0 Landcover/GIS, surface water hydrology & habitat models, alternative futures) Upper San Pedro Partnership ( 98-Pres.- Work and plan research directly with elected officials and resource managers) SAHRA NSF Science and Technology Center ( 00-Pres.- Add San Pedro River Tombstone USA USA MEXICO MEXICO Cananea economics, social & scenario science, education to all of the above) Ecosystem Valuation EPA STAR Grant ( 04-Pres.)

8 Upper San Pedro Partnership A consortium of 21 agencies, NGOs and private firms established in 1998 that cooperate in the implementation of comprehensive policies & projects to assist in meeting the water needs of the Upper San Pedro. In 2004, designated by Congress (McCain) as the entity to bring the basin into balance by Members Local: Bisbee, Huachuca City, Sierra Vista, Tombstone, Cochise County, Hereford NRCD State: AZ Dept. of Water Resources, State Land Department, ADEQ, AZ Assoc. of Conservation Districts Federal: USDA-ARS-SWRC, USGS, USFS, BLM, Ft. Huachuca, National Park Service, US Fish & Wildlife Service, BOR NGOs: TNC, Audubon Private: Bella Vista Water Company Staff Working Group Executive Committee Partnership Advisory Commission Outreach Committee Technical Committee Administrative Committee

9 Several Major Research Results and Tools Basin characterization, land cover change, alternative futures and SW Modeling (AGWA) (Kepner) Quantify basin recharge State of the art Groundwater Model Quantify riparian water needs and riparian functional condition classes (Dixon) Decision Support Model developed with USPP Downscaling of Global Change Model results

10 Riparian Water Needs Report New estimates of total riparian ET Develops condition class model which relates classes to hydrologic metrics Each condition class is reflective of different levels of ecosystem functional capacity Leenhouts, J. M., Stromberg, J.C., and Scott, R.L., eds., 2006, USGS Scientific Investigations Report , 154 p. Allows prediction of change in riparian condition class with GW changes predicted by the GW / DSS models (Dixon) State of the San Pedro

11 Characterization of an Ecosystem 1. s 2. Processes 3. Outputs The Scientific Foundation of Ecosystem Services Valuation Survey (Education) Develop Scenarios Anthropogenic Climatic Changes Hydrology Changes Riparian Changes Avian Ecosystem Valuation (Attributes) 1. Surface Water 2. Birds 3. Vegetation 4. Cost DSS (current conditions) Integrate Values Into DSS Ecosystem Services Demand Curves

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13 Decision Support System (DSS) Incorporates multiple factors USGS groundwater model Surface water supply Groundwater storage Residential/commercial water uses (infrastructure, well location) Simulations up to 50 years Can vary (e.g.): populations location of recharge basin location of future wells Generates growth, conservation, augmentation alternative futures land well groundwater river Effect of pumping at well location Time 1 small effect Time 2 some effect Time 3 larger effect

14 Run the DSS-Effect of Pumping DSS model shows changes in groundwater by reach Green represents small change Red represent a large change Yellow is a moderate change

15 Hydrologic Change => Veg./Rip. Changes Habitat Change CC-1 (dry) N Current Conditions Intermediate 30% (601 acres) Dry 10% (196 acres) Sections of the River Wet 60% (1175 acres) 2 Total Miles: 38 CC-2 (Int.) 1 Option A CC-3 (wet) N Dry 41% (825 acres) Sections of the River Wet 43% (850 acres) Total Miles: 38 1

16 Migrating Birds: Abundance by Scenario Total Abundance (number of birds) N Curren 14 t Condition Class CC1 CC2 CC S S S S3 Current S1 S2 Declining Groundwater by Scenario

17 Characterization of an Ecosystem 1. s 2. Processes 3. Outputs Abiotic, Biotic, Geography & Remote Sensing Science The Scientific Foundation of Ecosystem Services Valuation Survey (Education) Develop Scenarios Anthropogenic Climatic DSS (current conditions) Modeling Science Changes Hydrology Physical Science Scenario & Social Science Changes Riparian Plant Science Integrate Values Into DSS Changes Avian Avian Science Ecosystem Valuation (Attributes) 1. Surface Water 2. Birds 3. Vegetation 4. Cost Ecosystem Services Demand Curves

18 Ecosystem / Behavioral Demand: San Pedro River, AZ and Rio Grande, NM Increasing the Scientific Information Ecosystem Attributes Valued: Vegetation Diversity Canopy to Shrub Avian Species Diversity Canopy / Shrub / Water Bound birds Surface Water Choice Questions DC / CVM San Pedro Rio Grande San Pedro Rio Grande Traditional Survey Coarse Survey Fine Survey No spatial vegetation and bird information Spatial vegetation and bird information Spatial vegetation and bird information Separate Attribute and Bundle Values Separate Attribute and Bundle Values Detailed Spatial vegetation and bird information Critical Issue: Need GW and SW / Veg. / Riparian / Avian Models that drive the valuation of Ecosystem Services

19 Survey Educational Introduction Define the Study Site (SPRNCA) Explain the Water Attribute Explain the Vegetation Attribute Explain the Relationship between Water and Vegetation Condition Class Model Wet Intermediate Dry Explain Birds Breeding Birds by Nest Height Breeding Birds by Water Dependence Migratory Birds Current Conditions of the SPRNCA Proposed Infrastructure Changes

20 Current Conditions Miles of Surface Water = Migratory Birds = 19,000 Breeding Birds Described in Two Ways Total Number of Birds in SPRNCA = 7900 Miles of Surface Water = Migratory Birds = 16,800 Option A: Breeding Birds Described in Two Ways Total Number of Birds in SPRNCA = Number of Birds in SPRNCA Canopy 2900 High Shrub 2700 Non- Waterbound 6800 Low Shrub 2300 Waterbound 1100 By Nest Height By Water Dependence Number of Birds in SPRNCA Canopy 2400 High Shrub 3000 Low Shrub 2200 By Nest Height Non- Waterbound 6800 Waterbound 800 By Water Dependence N Intermediate 30% (601 acres) Dry 10% (196 acres) Sections of the River Wet 60% (1175 acres) N Dry 41% (825 acres) Sections of the River Wet 43% (850 acres) 1 2 Total Miles: Total Miles: 38 Intermediate 16% (302 acres)

21 Develop Scenarios Anthropogenic Climatic Mitigation Options (offset anthropogenic) Focus Groups DSS (current conditions) Changes Hydrology Marginal Values For Ecosystem Services Changes Riparian Changes Avian Survey (Education) Valuation (Attributes) 1. Surface Water 1. Birds 2. Veg. 3. Cost Non-market Demand Curves Implementation Internet Mail Surveys

22 Valuation Conclusions Marginal Values for Ecosystem Services Place these values back into the DSS Demand Curves This gives a P*Q where we only had Q on first run Change in values associated with alternative scenarios Revise the scenarios based on mitigation options Mitigation Costs A comparison of marginal mitigation costs to marginal social benefits A Valuation Tool where: Ecosystem services are considered in anthropogenic and climatic changes

23 Overall Conclusions The San Pedro characterization / research / decisionmaker enterprise took much more time than a 3 year grant cycle or 5 year agency planning cycle and it could not have been accomplished by a single agency or university Given the foundation established in the San Pedro we have the opportunity to establish a gold-standard in ecosystem valuation Testing the transferability of San Pedro results to the less informed Rio Grande will allow us to quantify what level of ecosystem valuation can be done in the case of less informed (researched) locations