Energy Perspectives 2013 Long-run macro and market outlook

Transcription

1 Energy Perspectives 213 Long-run macro and market outlook Presentation for Nätverket Olja & Gas 9 September 213 Security Eirik Wærness, Chief Economist Classificati on: Internal - Status:

2 Energy Perspectives A 3-year macro and market outlook The global economy Growth close to historic average (2.8%) Two speeds non-oecd catching up Overall energy market outlook 1.3% annual growth (oil.5%, coal:.7%) Moderate greening of energy mix Global oil and gas markets Oil demand peaks around 23 Gas demand increasing (1.6% per year) Strong growth in new renewables but CO 2 emissions grow until 23 2

3 A world of uncertainty framing the development Difficult to predict a number of outcomes are possible The world is characterized by Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity Conflicts are difficult to solve Growth is difficult to generate Sustainability is very difficult to ensure 3

4 A world of uncertainty framing the development Difficult to predict a number of outcomes are possible The world is characterized by Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity Conflicts are difficult to solve Growth is difficult to generate Sustainability very difficult to ensure but also by High growth in emerging economies Movement out of poverty and into affluence Increasing life expectancy Technological progress and opportunities 4

5 16 The world s most important commodity is notoriously difficult to predict Mar 11 Aug Aug 5 May Mar 99 Dec 1 Oct 3 4 Apr Classification: Internal

6 A strong trend affecting economics and energy Economic gravity moves (back) to the east, and so does energy demand The global economic centre of gravity Based on geographical weighting of GDP 1 Shifting energy demand Share in global energy demand, % Rest of world India China OECD Pacific OECD Europe OECD North America Source: McKinsey (map), International Energy Agency (history), Statoil (projections).

7 Growth, efficiency and energy demand Non-OECD driving growth, energy efficiency to improve by almost 4% 8 6 Economic growth Annual change in GDP (%) '91- ' '31-4 Growth and energy intensity Growth (%) and toe/million 25-USD Global energy demand TPED, bn toe International bunkers Other non-oecd Non-OECD Asia OECD OECD Non- OECD Asia Other non- OECD TPED GDP Energy intensity (rhs) Source: IHS Global Insight and International Energy Agency (history), Statoil (projections) 7

8 Gradual greening of energy mix but fossil fuels constitute 72% of total energy demand in 24 1 World energy mix Share of total energy demand (TPED, %) 1 Energy mix Shareof total energydemand (TPED, %) North America Europe China Coal Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewables Coal Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewables Source: International Energy Agency (history), Statoil (projections) 8

9 Fossil fuels are here to stay Emerging economies drive demand growth oil demand peaks ~ Global oil demand ex bio fuels, mbd International bunkers Other non-oecd Non-OECD Asia OECD Global gas demand 1 bcm International bunkers Other non-oecd Non-OECD Asia OECD Source: International Energy Agency (history), Statoil (projections) 9

10 Global oil supply from different sources Opec crude regaining importance, eventually 8 6 Non-Opec production Mbd Other sources* Oil sands Non-Opec NGL Non-Opec Tight oil Non-Opec Conv. crude 5 4 Opec oil production Mbd Opec NGL Saudi Arabia crude Iraq crude Other crude *Biofuels, GTL, processing gains Source: IEA, Statoil

11 Technology and prices affect new oil supplies New sources of oil are not cheap economics and finance matter Break-even prices for new developments USD/bbl Source: IEA, WoodMac, various research institutions, Statoil

12 Unconventional oil key to filling the gap in addition to fighting decline and continuing exploration large uncertainty! 12 World oil supply by type IEA s NP scenario and other views (mbd) 8 Additions to global annual oil supply (mb/d), estimate range Unconventional oil NGLs Currently producing "Abundance" Processing gains Conventional YTD/YTF "Scarcity" Sources: IEA World Energy Outlook 212, Statoil. Scarcity : Aleklett, Kjell et al. 21. The Peak of the oil age. Energy Policy 38 (3), Abundance : Maugeri, Leonardo Oil: The Next Revolution. Discussion Paper Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Harvard Kennedy School.

13 Oil demand depends on transport development in addition to some other sectors 4 Energy mix in transport Bn toe Coal Oil Gas Renewables Electricity Heat 4 Use of oil by sector Bn toe Power Non-energy Residential Industry Other stationary Transport

14 Future oil demand is about transportation Growth in fleet, changing composition, tightening of performance standards 2 Vehicle Fleet Composition Millions Gasoline FFV PHEV LPG Diesel Hybrid - Gasoline FEV CNG-LNG 1 8 Fuel efficiency L/1km EU 213 China 213 US Source: Statoil

15 Global gas markets long-term growth Gas is the winner among fossil fuels - growing 1.6% per year Global gas demand Bcm International bunkers Middle East India OECD Pacific Russia OECD Europe OECD North America Africa Other non-oecd Asia China Other FSU Non-OECD Europe Latin America LNG supply Bcm Africa Asia Europe FSU Latin America Middle East North America Oceania Source: IEA, Statoil

16 CO 2 emissions level out around 23 Lower growth, fuel efficiency, electrification, CCS Regional change in energy demand 21-4 Bn toe 3 2 Rest of the world OECD Europe World China OECD North America 6 4 Global CO 2 emissions billion tonnes International bunkers Non-OECD Asia IEA NP IEA 45 Other non-oecd OECD IEA CP Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables Source: IEA (history), Statoil (projections) 16

17 Comparing different forecasts Assumptions on economic and energy demand growth differ, 2,5 2 Total primary energy demand CAGR, % ,4 1, Total oil demand CAGR, % 1,5,8 1,6,5,4,2 17

18 Thank you! 18 Classification: Internal

19 Comparing different forecasts, cont. and largest differences for new renewables 3 2,5 2 Total gas demand CAGR, % Total new renewables demand CAGR, % , ,5 2 19

20 Comparing different forecasts, cont. Electrification becomes more important Electricity as share of total final energy consumption, % Statoil IEA EIA New renewables as share of electricity % Statoil Shell 1 Shell 2 IEA 15 2 EIA