Energy Issues, Energy Transition and the consequences What do citizens think?

Transcription

1 Dr. Peter Matuschek Energy Issues, Energy Transition and the consequences What do citizens think? 2 July 2018 P0090 Ma

2 1. Importance of energy issues to the German public

3 First of all: How interested are Germans in energy issues and what are their sources of information?

4 Interest in energy issues (1) In general: little interest in energy issues: Low-interest-product After Fukushima and the abrupt U-turn in energy policy: high interest in energy issues Today: once more fading interest in energy issues

5 Interest in energy issues (2) Respondents with strong interest for issues related to energy supply

6 Interest in energy issues (2) Respondents with strong interest for issues related to energy supply

7 Interest in energy issues (2) Respondents with strong interest for issues related to energy supply

8 Perception of (media) coverage on energy issues Despite sagging interest in energy issues: Continued awareness of coverage on energy supply (albeit declining): Respondents who have recently perceived reports on energy supply

9 Perceived contents of coverage on energy issues Energy prices Renewable energies Conventional energies

10 Sources of information on energy issues Television 77 Radio 56 Daily newspapers 56

11 Sources of information on energy issues Television 77 Radio 56 Daily newspapers 56 Internet 65

12 Sources of information on energy issues Television 77 Radio 56 Daily newspapers 56 Internet 65 Information of energy suppliers 24

13 Sources of information on energy issues Television 77 Radio 56 Daily newspapers 56 Internet 65 Information of energy suppliers 24 Personal talks 62

14 Whom do citizens trust on energy issues? Consumers associations 67

15 Whom do citizens trust on energy issues? Consumers associations 67 The media 36 Local energy suppliers 18 Corporate energy suppliers 5 Politicians 3 None 13

16 Evaluation of media coverage on energy issues Media coverage on energy issues is impartial and neutral 36

17 Evaluation of media coverage on energy issues Media coverage on energy issues is impartial and neutral 36 biased and exaggerated 55

18 2. General attitudes towards the energy transition: Yes, but

19 High acceptance of renewable energies

20 Popularity of solar and wind energy For almost 50 years, the most valued energy types among Germans have been: Solar energy and Wind energy as they are - according to most citizens still today secure and cheap 65 56

21 but: despite unaltered high acceptance of renewable energies: Great doubts about their efficiency

22 Evaluation of renewables effiency Energy demand in Germany can be covered by renewables alone in the foreseeable future 2011 (after Fukushima) 2013 (after the general election) 2016 yes yes yes no, fossil energies will remain necessary 61 no, fossil energies will remain necessary 83 no, fossil energies will remain necessary 75

23 Preferred partner for renewables as part of the supply mix Natural gas 54 Wood 22 Oil 20 Nuclear power 17 Coal 14

24 Associations with the energy transition Neutral associations: First steps into renewable energies Wind energy Solar energy 17 Pull-out from nuclear energy 18 negative associations: Rising prices Problems with implementation positive associations: Environment and climate protection 5

25 Political effects of the abrupt turnaround in energy policy Voting preference for the CDU/CSU After lifetime extension of nuclear power: 36

26 Political effects of the abrupt turnaround in energy policy Voting preference for the CDU/CSU After lifetime extension of nuclear power: 36 After turnaround Spring 2011: 30

27 Political effects of the abrupt turnaround in energy policy Voting preference for the CDU/CSU After lifetime extension of nuclear power: 36 After turnaround Spring 2011: 30 Voting preferences for Angela Merkel Before the turnaround 55

28 Political effects of the abrupt turnaround in energy policy Voting preference for the CDU/CSU After lifetime extension of nuclear power: 36 After turnaround Spring 2011: 30 Voting preferences for Angela Merkel Before the turnaround 55 After the turnaround 39

29 Political effects of the abrupt turnaround in energy policy Voting preference for the CDU/CSU After lifetime extension of nuclear power: 36 After turnaround Spring 2011: 30 Voting preferences for Angela Merkel Before the turnaround 55 After the turnaround

30 Opinions about the energy transition (1) * ) The energy transition can be accomplished yes no yes no * ) forsa-surveys for wintershall

31 Opinions about the energy transition (2) The energy transition will lead to The energy transition leads to new economic stimuli in Germany more jobs less jobs 34 yes 48 no 58 no change

32 Opinions of German business on the energy transition The turnaround in energy policy after Fukushima was The changeover to renewable energies as planned is possible Energy costs for their own company will rise somewhat 37 appropriate and necessary 34 yes 19 impetuous and not necessary 62 no strongly or very strongly

33 Repercussions of the energy shift on citizens life The energy shift has repercussions on one s own life no yes: increased energy costs yes (56 %) 7 11 yes: Others yes: more conscious dealing with energy

34 Priorities with regard to energy supply For the energy supply in the future it is very important that climate targets are being accomplished 48 environmental friendliness 44

35 Priorities with regard to energy supply For the energy supply in the future it is very important that the supply is secure and reliable 64 climate targets are being accomplished 48 environmental friendliness 44

36 Priorities with regard to energy supply For the energy supply in the future it is very important that electricity and energy remain affordable (costs) 74 the supply is secure and reliable 64 climate targets are being accomplished 48 environmental friendliness 44

37 Ecological consciousness and behavior A wide gulf between the superstructure (consciousness) High acceptance of climate/ environment protection and sustainability and the substructure (behavior) Low relevance of ecological consciousness for the actual behavior

38 Acceptance of higher energy prices?

39 Citizens opinions on higher electricity prices Rising electricity prices due to the energy shift are acceptable yes no Total Blue-collar workers White-collar workers Civil servants Self-employed Voters of CDU/CSU SPD Greens Left Party 16 81

40 Acceptance of higher electricity prices Willingness to pay more for electricity yes no Total Blue-collar workers White-collar workers Civil servants Self-employed Voters of CDU/CSU SPD Greens Left Party 32 65

41 3. Further implications of the energy transition: Grid expansions and expansion of on-shore wind energy

42 General acceptance of grid expansions

43 General acceptance of grid expansions * ) A fast grid expansion is necessary for a successful energy shift Acceptance of the construction of high capacity power lines Germany Germany Bavaria * ) forsa-survey for TenneT, 2014

44 General acceptance of on-shore wind energy

45 General importance - wind energy expansion * ) Expansion of on-shore wind energy is not (very) important (very) important * ) forsa-survey for Fachagentur Windenergie an Land, 2017

46 Acceptance of wind energy in residential environment * ) * ) forsa-survey for Fachagentur Windenergie an Land, 2017

47 Acceptance of wind energy in residential environment * ) Acceptance of wind turbines in their residential environment ** ) no yes * ) forsa-survey for Fachagentur Windenergie an Land, 2017 ** ) Base: People living in the proximity of wind turbines

48 Acceptance of wind energy in residential environment * ) Acceptance of wind turbines in their residential environment ** ) Reservations against wind turbines in their residential environment *** ) no yes 82 yes no 73 * ) forsa-survey for Fachagentur Windenergie an Land, 2017 ** ) Base: People living in the proximity of wind turbines *** ) Base: People not living in the proximity of wind turbines

49 Expansion of on-shore wind energy Baden-Württemberg * ) not (very) important (very) important * ) forsa-survey for EnBW, 2017

50 Expansion of on-shore wind energy Baden-Württemberg * ) Thüringen ** ) not (very) important not (very) important (very) important 73 (very) important * ) forsa-survey for EnBW, 2017 ** ) forsa-survey for EnBW, 2018

51 Acceptance of wind energy in residential environment Baden-Württemberg * ) no yes * ) forsa-survey for EnBW, 2017 Base: People living in the proximity of wind turbines

52 Acceptance of wind energy in residential environment Baden-Württemberg * ) Thüringen ** ) no no yes yes * ) forsa-survey for EnBW, 2017 ** ) forsa-survey for EnBW, 2018 Base: People living in the proximity of wind turbines

53 Who is responsible for actively informing the citizens about regional expansion of wind energy? Baden-Württemberg * ) Thüringen ** ) Local politicians Regional government Energy suppliers the media Environmental NGOs Constructors of wind turbines Producers of wind turbines * ) forsa-survey for EnBW, 2017 ** ) forsa-survey for EnBW, 2018 Base: People living in the proximity of wind turbines

54 Concluding remarks Energy issues are not among the most important concerns of Germans today However: Steady awareness of coverage on energy supply Energy supply: Costs and security matter much more than environmental aspects Growing skepticism about the feasibility of the energy transition Low acceptance of higher energy prices General acceptance of grid expansions and on-shore wind energy

55 Thank you! Dr. Peter Matuschek forsa Politik- und Sozialforschung GmbH Büro Berlin Schreiberhauer Straße Berlin Telefon: info@forsa.de