Decarbonising Electricity. - nothing is impossible!

Transcription

1 Australia and New Zealand Climate Change and Business Conference Environment Defence Society Auckland 9-10 October 2018 Session 7: Powering the Future Decarbonising Electricity - nothing is impossible! Prof Ralph Sims Massey University, Palmerston North R.E.Sims@massey.ac.nz

2 Renewable energy shares of total global energy end-use consumption by sector US$ 286 billion was invested in renewable energy systems in Battery, wind turbine and solar PV prices continue to decline. Electric vehicle sales grew 50% in 2017 to around 4M, as did carsharing schemes.

3 New Zealand electricity demand ,923 GWh X 31,459 GWh X

4 New Zealand electricity generation

5 Emissions from the electricity sector

6 Tentative technical potential: Hydro: Consented 245 MW Applied for 152 MW Wind 2801 MW 800 MW under appeal 180 MW Tidal 1 MW 200 MW Geothermal 300 MW 150 MW In aiming for 100% renewables, the power supply system needs to be: Reliable Affordable Sustainable

7 IPCC Special Report Renewables 2011 Chapter 11. Integration into present and future systems Renewables can be integrated into all types of electricity supply systems, from large, interconnected, continental-scale grids to on-site generation and utilization in small, autonomous buildings. Technically and economically feasible levels of RE penetration depend on the unique characteristics of a system. These include the status of infrastructure development, mix of generation technologies, market design, control and communication capability, demand pattern and geographic location in relation to the resources available, and institutional rules.

8 IPCC Special Report Renewables 2011 Chapter 11. Integration into present and future systems Short time-variable wind, wave and solar resources can be more difficult to integrate than dispatchable reservoir hydro, bioenergy and geothermal resources, which tend to vary only over years and decades. As variable renewables penetration levels increase, maintaining system reliability becomes more challenging and costly. Solutions to minimize the costs and risks to a system can include the development of complementary, flexible generation; strengthening and extending the network infrastructure; demand response in relation to supply availability; energy storage; and modified institutional arrangements such as regulatory and market mechanisms.

9 Royal Society of NZ 2016 Transition to a low carbon economy Technically renewables in the mix could achieve close to 100% without reducing the reliability and security of the power grid. However, very high penetration that includes high shares of variable renewable energy systems would need a more flexible grid, energy storage, and back-up generation (possibly thermal plant) to meet seasonal peaks, especially in dry years when hydro is constrained.

10 Vivid Economics 2016 Net zero in New Zealand scenarios to achieve direct emissions neutrality There is significant expansion in renewables in all scenarios. By 2050, the generation mix is 98% in the Innovative New Zealand scenario, reflecting ambitious assumptions about the ability of demand-side response and batteries to balance variable renewables. The major renewable sources that expand are wind, geothermal and hydro, while solar, biomass and ocean generation are constrained by geographical factors and cost.

11 Efficient Energy International, 2017 Toward 100% renewable electricity - how New Zealand can develop a fully renewable electricity system A multi-faceted focus on both demand and supply side aspects of the electricity system, their drivers, and how they affect system resilience is needed if New Zealand is to advance beyond 90% renewables. Increasing renewables depends on retiring coal and gas plants as they reach end-of-life and their role is also diminished by reducing system and regional peak demands. A significant reserve of consented renewables (wind, hydro, geothermal) is already available should new generation be required.

12 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre 2018 APEC Energy Supply and Demand Outlook Chapter 12, New Zealand (draft) In the Two degree scenario, electricity demand drops sufficiently due to energy efficiency measures to warrant the retirement of all gas-fired generation capacity by 2030, making New Zealand electricity 100% renewable. Geothermal energy additions are much reduced in this scenario as low-cost wind generation complements the large existing hydro base. This boosts the share of hydro in 2050 to 61%. Solar PV grows exponentially. However, given the low starting base, it accounts for only around 3% of power generation in 2050.

13 Transpower 2018 Securing our energy future New Zealand s grid is part of an electricity system that is unique for its high levels of renewable electricity generation and the way it operates with a high level of reliability despite low levels of energy storage (and without connection to another country). Transpower supports the principle of an increasingly renewable electricity system because of the social, environmental and economic benefits it can deliver. However, it is not yet clear to us how future seasonal peaks in demand can be met in the absence of the firming capacity currently provided by thermal generation.

14 Productivity Commission 2018 Transition to a low carbon economy Our modelling projects that the electricity system will move to higher proportions of renewable energy, but with some fossil generation remaining to provide infrequent firming generation. The growth in electricity demand is met by building new renewable generation. The remaining CCGT generators are projected to be displaced from baseload operation by new renewable generation as C emissions prices rise. A need remains for some peaking fossil generation to manage periods of particularly high demand and/or low renewable output, for instance, in dry years.

15 Contact Energy 2018 James Kilty, CGO yesterday! New generation is not easy. Taranaki CCGT will close in next 5-10 years. Renewable electricity across NZ will increase: up to 90% share of generation mix will occur and be viable with much wind and geothermal consented; as we approach 95%, there is a hockey stick effect on costs; but new technologies are evolving so it is hard to predict what may become feasible in future years.

16 My question is whether these various scenarios adequately included bioenergy heat and power and if so, what assumptions were used?

17 Kinleith pulp and paper plant. 40 MWe CHP plant built Bark as fuel. Operated by Genesis. Heat and power used on site.

18 Straw bale CHP system, Denmark

19 Community biogas plant in Cerignola, Southern Italy. 746 MWh annual generation and heat used for greenhouse crop production.

20 Cities achieving 100% renewable heat and power back in 2010: Växjö, Sweden Samsø, Denmark El Hierro, Canary Islands Güssing, Austria

21 Güssing, Burgenland, Austria Fluidised bed, steam gasification technology. 2 MW e and 4.5 MW th contributing to the district heating system.

22 Bioenergy in Finland

23 265 MW electric 160 MW district heating Uses 400 bales / hr 66 bales / 60 t truck 6 trucks per hour

24 A gold plated project aiming for NZD 14 c/kwh!

25 Pellets from British Columbia on Drax burns 7.5 Mt pellets per year to Drax power plant, UK. in 3 of 6way boilers that provides 12% of UK Renewable electricity 2600 MW bioenergy 1300 MW coal/gas

26 Yorkshire ARBRE 10MWe Biomass Integrated Combined Cycle Gasification

27 The Brilliance of Bioenergy in Business and in Practice

28 The key challenge is to stabilise the climate well before reaching a 2 o C temperature rise New Zealand is finally moving along the right pathways to reduce our emissions. Achieving 100% renewable electricity is technically feasible but may need government intervention in the market for it to happen. The demand side is also critical for 100% renewables energy efficiency, demand response, flexible grid. Other than new wind, geothermal, solar and hydro, the potential for dispatchable bioenergy using storable biomass fuels is poorly understood, and needs more detailed analysis with the Bioenergy Association of NZ.

29 Electric trackless tram