Overview. Long-term energy scenario The TUG-IPP model Baseline scenario Scenario variations Fusion available earlier/later than 2050 Conclusions

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1 Recent long-term scenario results with the TUG-IPP global single-regional energy model I EFDA SERF (TW3-TWE-FESA/A) IEA Workshop on Socio-Economics of Fusion UKAEA Culham, UK, April 2005 Christian Eherer, eherer@itp.tu-graz.ac.at Martin Baumann, martin.baumann@tugraz.at Institute of Theoretical and Computational Physics

2 IEA Workshop Culham, 27 April Overview Long-term energy scenario The TUG-IPP model Baseline scenario Scenario variations Fusion available earlier/later than 2050 Conclusions

3 IEA Workshop Culham, 27 April Long-term energy scenarios Internally consistent and reproducible set of assumptions No prediction, no forecast Alternative images of how the future could enfold Focussing on energy part of the economcy Basic assumption: absence of major discontinuities and catastrophes Baseline as point of reference Keep in mind uncertainties and assumptions when discussing/communicating results Long-term energy models are explorative tools for the investigation of such possible futures based on contrasted scenarios

4 IEA Workshop Culham, 27 April TUG-IPP global MARKAL/TIMES energy model Partial equilibrium MARKAL/TIMES energy model TIMES model generator (ETSAP, MARKAL successor) Maximisation of total surplus (consumer + producer) Supply demand equilibrium Bottom-up, technology explicit Representation of the energy system by a Reference Energy System (RES; commodities, processes) Long-term ( , 12 periods, 10 years length) Single world region, perfect foresight Final energy demands (split into OECD, Non-OECD) Focus on supply side (electricity sector) Dynamic growth constraints Price elastic energy demands

5 IEA Workshop Culham, 27 April Overview of the Reference Energy System Primary Energy Renewable Energy Fuels Electricity Heat Electricity Heat Com. Elc. Com. Heat Ind. Elc. Ind. Heat Res. Elc. Res. Heat Transport CO2 Refining & Conversion Grids Sectoral Elc. Dem. CO2 Electricity & Heat Production CO2 Transport Electrolysis CO2 Sectoral Heating Supply side Demand side Final energy demands for OECD and Non-OECD

6 IEA Workshop Culham, 27 April Baseline scenario Based on IIASA-WEC Scenario B final energy projections Resource constraints (coal, oil, gas, uranium) Potentials for energy technologies Geothermal power, biomass use, hydro power Assumptions on potential of wind and solar power (max. 25% of generated electricity) Dynamic growth constraints (DGCs) Estimates from historic developments For all sectors of the energy system Price sensitive final energy demands Elasticities based on the new EFDA-TIMES model No emission policy Discount rate for investments: 5%

7 IIASA-WEC Final energy demand projections Final Energy Demand World by Region Energy [EJ] Non-OECD OECD Model period Institute of Theoretical and Computational Physics IEA Workshop Culham, 27 April

8 IEA Workshop Culham, 27 April Generated electricity baseline Generated electricity by fuel type - baseline 80, Electricity [TWh] 70, , , , , , , Other Wind Solar Hydro Fission Existing LWR Biomass Fuel cell Gas + Seq. Gas Fusion Coal + Seq. Coal + Lig. Existing Model period

9 IEA Workshop Culham, 27 April Cost of electricity - baseline Cost of electricity excluding grid costs - baseline R 2 = Cost [ cent / kwh] Model solution Trend line Model period

10 IEA Workshop Culham, 27 April Scenario variations (72 in total) Assumption Cumulative CO 2 emission constraints Maximum amount of cumulative sequestrated CO 2 Maximum share of electricity from wind and solar power Amount of primary resources GEN IV Nuclear fission breeding technology (LMFB) Variations 450 ppm / 550 ppm / no limit 300 Giga tonnes carbon / no limit 25% / 50% 65% / 100% / 200% (of baseline) yes / no

11 IEA Workshop Culham, 27 April Boundary conditions for fusion power in the TUG-IPP model Fusion power does not enter the solution, if GEN IV liquid metal fast breeders are available Fusion power is favoured by constrained CO 2 emissions Fusion power is favoured by lower availability of resources (coal, gas, oil, uranium) Fusion power is favoured by lower shares of solar power and wind power, although high shares of renewables are not excluding fusion power from the system fusion power and renewables can coexist Limits on the maximum amount of CO 2 sequestration have no impact on the role of fusion power

12 IEA Workshop Culham, 27 April Scenarios where fusion power enters the market (30) 1 CO 2 [ppm] Renewables (solar & wind) Resources Fusion Share Average coe [ cent/kwh] % 65% 20.0% % 65% 19.4% 7.44 no limit 25% 65% 16.7% % 65% 14.6% % 100% 14.4% % 100% 8.9% % 100% 8.6% % 65% 7.1% 7.02 no limit 50% 65% 5.4% % 100% 3.7% % 200% 1.4% % 200% 0.5% % 200% 0.5% % 200% 0.4% 6.17 no limit 25% 200% 0.1% 5.87

13 IEA Workshop Culham, 27 April Scenarios where fusion power enters the market (30) 2 Numbers of scenarios containing fusion power 9 Number of scenarios in a range ppm 550 ppm no limit 0 1% 10% 20% Fusion share ranges (0-1%, 1-10%, 10-20%)

14 IEA Workshop Culham, 27 April Generated electricity Fusion scenario 1 80, Generated electricity - Fusion share 19.4% (550 ppm, max. 25% wind & solar, 65% resources) Electricity [TWh] 70, , , , , , , Other Wind Solar Hydro Fission Existing LWR Biomass Fuel cell Gas + Seq. Gas Fusion Coal + Seq. Coal + Lig. Existing Model period

15 IEA Workshop Culham, 27 April Generated electricity Fusion scenario 2 80, Generated electricity - Fusion share 8.9% (550 ppm, max. 25% wind & solar, 100% resources) Electricity [TWh] 70, , , , , , , Other Wind Solar Hydro Fission Existing LWR Biomass Fuel cell Gas + Seq. Gas Fusion Coal + Seq. Coal + Lig. Existing Model period

16 IEA Workshop Culham, 27 April Cost of electricity of fusion scenarios Cost of electricity excluding grid costs - selected fusion scenarios Cost [ cent / kwh] % fusion power 19.4% fusion power 8.9% fusion power 5.4% fusion power baseline Model period

17 Fusion available earlier/later in a high fusion share scenario Becomes competitive already 2040 in 2 scenarios 450 ppm CO 2, max. 25% solar & wind power, 65% resources, no Gen IV, max. 300 Gt CO 2 sequestration 450 ppm CO 2, max. 25% solar & wind power, 65% resources, no Gen IV, no limit on CO 2 sequestration Welfare gain compared to same scenarios with fusion becoming available in 2050: ~ 70 G Welfare loss in those scenarios when fusion available in 2060: ~ 200 G Institute of Theoretical and Computational Physics IEA Workshop Culham, 27 April

18 IEA Workshop Culham, 27 April Conclusions Systematic assessment of key boundary conditions for fusion power in the chosen setup overview on their impact Due to price elastic energy demands analysis of welfare gains/losses in different scenarios compared to a reference Investigation of the impact of advanced modelling features Valuable tool for qualitatively investigating major development mechanisms in future energy scenarios on a high aggregation level

19 Acknowledgements ¾ Friedrich Schiedel Foundation for Energy Technology ¾ Association OEAW-EURATOM ¾ Austrian Ministry of Science (BM:BWK) ¾ European Commission/EFDA Thank you for your attention! Institute of Theoretical and Computational Physics IEA Workshop Culham, 27 April