Sub-regional risk of spill of oil and hazardous substances in the Baltic Sea (BRISK)

Transcription

1 Admiral Danish Fleet HQ, National Operations, Maritime Environment Sub-regional risk of spill of oil and hazardous substances in the Baltic Sea (BRISK) Risk Model Result Report December 2011

2 COWI A/S Parallelvej 2 DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby Denmark Tel Fax wwwcowicom Baltic Sea Region Programme Sub-regional risk of spill of oil and hazardous substances in the Baltic Sea (BRISK) Risk Model Result Report December 2011 Project No Document no 322 Version 1 Date of issue 24 January 2012 Prepared Checked Approved CRJ, ALBL, ERP, SRD, PSP PSP, CRJ, MORH CRJ

3 1 Table of Contents 1 Summary 4 2 Conclusion 9 3 Introduction BRISK Project setup The risk model result document Method Scenarios 12 4 Model result maps Ship traffic density Risk of accidents Risk of oil spills Impact of oil spills Existing distribution of environmental vulnerability Existing distribution of environmental damage 31 5 Scenario results for the Baltic Sea Effect parameters Effect of present effort and potential of scenarios Response scenarios Additional scenarios 46 6 Sub-regional distribution of risk parameters Sub-regions of the Baltic Sea Sub-regional distribution of risk parameters 50 7 Scenario results for sub-region 1 (Golf of Bothnia) Response scenarios Additional scenarios 55 O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

4 2 8 Scenario results for sub-region 2 (Gulf of Finland) Response scenarios Additional scenarios 60 9 Scenario results for sub-region 3 (Baltic Proper) Response scenarios Additional scenarios Scenario results for sub-region 4 (S-E Baltic Sea) Response scenarios Additional scenarios Scenario results for sub-region 5 (S-W Baltic Sea) Response scenarios Additional scenarios Scenario results for sub-region 6 (Kattegat) Response scenarios Additional scenarios Reference scenarios per sub-region Entire Baltic Sea Sub-region 1 (Golf of Bothnia) Sub-region 2 (Gulf of Finland) Sub-region 3 (Baltic Proper) Sub-region 4 (S-E Baltic Sea) Sub-region 5 (S-W Baltic Sea) Sub-region 6 (Kattegat) Recovery rate Recovery in optimal conditions Recovery in applied conditions Result plot summary 94 Table of Appendices Appendix A: Comments from BRISK RU project experts 99 O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

5 3 Appendix B: Project Partner Details 104 Appendix C: Damage calculation 109 O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

6 4 1 Summary This report presents the preliminary results of the risk analysis within the BRISK project The report shall serve as basis for the further work on identification of needed resources and corresponding investment plans A brief description of the overall methodology is given as well as en overview of the scenarios that are selected A collection of maps are given illustrating the distribution within the Baltic Sea of the impact of oil, the environmental vulnerability (sensitivity) and of the environmental damage The detailed descriptions of the effects of the different investigated scenarios are collected in main chapters for each sub-region These chapters shall provide the basis for the sub-regional working groups that shall elaborate lists of needed capacities as well as corresponding investment plans for their respective subregion The effect of the existing response measures as well as navigational aids are illustrated in a separate chapter in order to compare the effect of the existing measures with the potential of future improvements with the scenarios investigated in this project Finally, a special chapter is added that describes the recovery rates achieved in the model compared to international findings The recovery rates experienced in selected major incidents in the Baltic Sea are added in order to set the findings into area specific perspective In order to describe the risk for major oil spills in the Baltic Sea, the Baltic Sea is divided into 6 sub-regions where co-operation among the countries is of high importance, see the map of sub-region in Figure 1-1 O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

7 5 Figure 1-1 Map of sub-regions for co-ordinated oil spill response in the Baltic Sea The investigations give a clear result that the threat from oil spills measured as a) risk for accidental spill of oil, b) amount of oil that is expected to reach the coast and c) the expected environmental damage, varies the Baltic Sea for the situation in the year 2020, see Figure 1-2 Here it is seen the expected amount of spilt oil increases from the inner part of the Baltic Sea (SR1) towards the outer part towards the North Sea (SR6) The amount of oil on coast follows largely the same tendency The amount of environmental damage, seem to be fairly constant throughout the Baltic Sea with a maximum in the vulnerable Gulf of Bothnia (SR1) O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

8 6 Figure 1-2 Comparison of amount of spilt oil, oil on coast and environmental damage for each sub-region The effect of the measures that already are in place is compared with the potential additional improvements and illustrated in Figure 1-3 It is seen that measures with substantial effect are in place in the different sub-regions, but it is also evident that the scenarios investigated in this project represent significant improvement in regard to reduction of oil accidentally spilt in the Baltic Sea Figure 1-3 Improvements with regard to spilt oil and increased recovery Comparison between the effect of existing and futures measures for each subregion (SR) of the Baltic Sea In absolute terms, the largest improvements with regard to spilt oil and recovery can be achieved in sub-regions 6, 5 and 3 O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

9 7 In relative terms the potential for future improvements can be compared with the improvements of the existing measures This has been carried out for each sub-region in Figure 1-4 Here it is seen that the relative largest increase can be achieved in sub-regions 3, 1 and 5, Figure 1-4 Relative potential improvement in the different sub-regions of the Baltic Sea The improvements determined above are based on technical improvements regarding increased recovery capacity and also regarding increased navigational safety to avoid accidents The technical improvements are selected by the Project Partners and transformed into so-called model scenarios For each scenario the effects are modelled and compared with a reference situation This way a quantitative difference is determined and the scenarios can be ranked with respect to their efficiency and later also with respect to their cost/environmental benefit ratio Due to the different traffic and risk profiles in the different sub-regions the scenarios also are of different efficiency in the different sub-regions This means that the general picture for the entire Baltic Sea is not necessary the same as for each sub-region It is found that sub-region 1 (Gulf of Bothnia) and sub-region 4 (South-East Baltic Sea) are similar with respect to their ship traffic: low traffic intensities and little oil transport gives low risk levels Here, the most viable improvement solutions comprise increase response capacities, eg vessels, booms and skimmers Sub-region2 (Gulf of Finland) is characterised by high ship traffic and also large oil transportation Due to the highly developed traffic control systems and the high standard of response capacities, the risk level also is relatively low Viable improvement solutions comprise increased response capacities O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

10 8 Sub-regions 3 (Baltic Proper), 5 (South-West Baltic Sea) and 6 (Belt Sea and Kattegat) are characterised by high traffic intensities and large oil transportation The risk level is high Viable improvement solution comprise first of all traffic control options, but also increased recovery capacity options (eg increase visibility during night) have effect Remarks and comments from experts of the BRISK-RU project are adopted in the present analysis The final remarks and adoptions are referred to in the appendix An independent study for the Polish Marine Areas was carried out in order to compare selected outcomes from the BRISK project with results from an existing Polish methodology applied on conditions comparable to the BRISK project The results are found to be very similar and it is concluded that the studies confirm each others, see Appendix D O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

11 9 2 Conclusion Based on the preliminary results presented in this document, the following indications of the risk picture are proposed The list of indications is meant as subject for discussion and may be further elaborated and expanded 1 The risk of oil pollution is highest in sub-region 5 and sub-region 6 2 The expected average spill amounts vary about a factor 10 between the sub-region with the largest and the smallest spill, respectively 3 In the period from 2008/9 until 2020 the increase in traffic and hence the increase in risk will be counteracted by the introduction of navigational aids such as emergency towing, ECDIS, bridge control, or escort towing 4 It is observed that magnitude and distribution of scenario results are different between sub-regions Therefore, sub-regional solutions are required 5 For the entire Baltic Sea the results indicate that the implementation of additional VTS will have a high degree of effect on spill reduction 6 Furthermore, the results indicate that implementation of double hull at bunker tanks will have a high degree of effect on oil spills in the subregion 1 and sub-region 4 7 The "night-visibility" scenario increases the recovery rate and implementation of such night-visibility-increasing devices may be a viable measure O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

12 10 3 Introduction 31 BRISK Project setup The project is defined in response to an increased concern about accidents and environmental damage in the Baltic Sea due to the significant increase of ship traffic, particularly the oil tanker traffic Major oil spills can affect the economy of several countries and are hence a trans-national problem The increased risk of oil spills is of great concern in the whole Baltic Sea region The objective of the project is to identify specific proposals for increased cooperation The project will result in increased preparedness of authorities to respond to medium size oil spills and enhanced sub-regional co-operation The network of responsible persons will be further developed The project will promote building partnerships and co-operations among trans-national, national and regional authorities that are responsible for emergency and response operations in the Baltic Sea The BRISK project is partly financed by EU s Baltic Sea Regional Programme with 33 million EUR for the period 2009 to 2012The co-financing varies between 15 % and 25 %, depending on the home country of Project Partner The project partnership consists of the national authorities responsible for oil spill preparedness around the Baltic Sea together with HELCOM The countries involved are: DK, SE, FI, EE, LT, LV, PL, DE, plus HELCOM Russia in involved indirectly through the BRISK-RU project, which is financed by the Nordic Council of Ministers with EUR A list of the contracting authorities and the contact persons involved is given in the appendix The project activities are divided into the following 6 Work Packages (WP): WP1: Management, responsible: LP (Lead Partner, Denmark) WP2: Communication and information, responsible HELCOM WP3: Risk assessment: Common methodology, unified data collection, common risk model, common assessment of risk of pollution and impact, Identification of additional response resources needed, resp LP O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

13 11 WP4: Agreements: Development of proposals to remove administrative obstacles to the efficient response, resp: LP WP5: Investment plans: Preparation of integral and comparable investment plans for response resources, resp: LP The structure of the project reports is given in below Table 3-1 Document number Document list of the BRISK project Document Title Method Note Data Collection Note Data Collection Report Model Note,0- Introduction Model Note,1-Traffic Model Note,2- Transport Model Note,3- Vulnerability Model Note,4- Frequency Model Note,5- Spreading Model Note,6- Numerical calculations Model Note,7-Model modification Model scenarios Model results Response Resources Agreements Investment plans O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

14 12 32 The risk model result document The report shall serve as basis for the further work on identification of needed resources and corresponding investment plans The present document presents the overall risk picture for the entire Baltic Sea In the present project the Baltic Sea is divided into six sub-regions, see Figure 6-1 The risk parameters are determined for each of these sub-regions as well as for the entire Baltic Sea 33 Method The principle of the applied method is that all processes of relevance for the occurrence of spills and environmental damage are described and connected in a system of modules, so that the consequence of changed input parameters will result in a measurable change for oil impact and damage to the environment The result parameters include risk for spills, risk for damage and the amount of beached oil (oil on coastline) The parameters are modelled according to a commonly agreed methodology that has been partly developed by the Project Partners of BRISK and BRISK-RU projects See project document " Method Note" 34 Scenarios It is the objective to investigate the consequences of different potential scenarios in the future, ie the year 2020 These scenarios are described in terms of different new input parameters to the model The project team has discussed and decided what scenarios shall be investigated and has developed corresponding input parameters for the model See project document "321 Model Scenario Report" In all, 5 scenarios for different response capacities are defined Further, 7 additional scenarios are selected describing alternative measures for avoiding accidents For reference and comparison, a scenario for the traffic in the year 2020 is defined that comprises the traffic for 2020 as given in a traffic prognosis It also includes the response capacities on the same level as at present and it includes navigational aids for avoiding accidents that are decided upon and will be implemented before 2020 In order to describe the effect of the existing response capacity and the navigational aids two additional reference scenarios are defined The list of scenarios is given in Table 3-2 below Table 3-2 List of scenarios O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

15 13 ID Traffic Navigational aids (NAVA) Response Capacity /9 traffic No NAVA Exist response /9 traffic Exist NAVA No response /9 traffic Exist NAVA Exist response traffic prognosis traffic prognosis traffic prognosis traffic prognosis traffic prognosis traffic prognosis traffic prognosis traffic prognosis 2020 NAVA (already decided upon) Mandatory Pilotage in the Danish Straits (add to 2020 NAVA) Maximum Vessel traffic system (VTS), Kattegat, Fehmarn, Bornholm and Gotland hotspots (add to 2020 NAVA) Traffic separation schemes (TSS) in Kattegat (add to 2020 NAVA) Electronic chart display and information system (ECDIS) for all large ships (add to 2020 NAVA) Double hull at the cargo tank (<5000 BRT) (add to 2020 NAVA) Double hull at bunker tank (add to 2020 NAVA) Escort towing for all tankers in narrow shipping lanes where towing is done now (add to 2020 NAVA) Exist response Exist response Exist response Exist response Exist response Exist response Exist response Exist response traffic prognosis traffic prognosis traffic prognosis traffic prognosis 2020 NAVA Re-allocation of existing capacities (vessels) 2020 NAVA Additional response equipment as proposed by partners 2020 NAVA 50% more response equipment 2020 NAVA Night visibility (085) O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

16 14 ID Traffic Navigational aids (NAVA) Response Capacity traffic prognosis 2020 NAVA Recovery of oil from ice (from 20% to 40%) Note: Scenario 3-2 was defined as VTS at Gotland NE It is excluded as stand alone scenario and VTS at Gotland NE is included in Scenario Reference scenarios The scenario numbers for these scenarios start with "1", ref Table 3-2 Reference scenarios (Scenario 1-1 to scenario 1-3) describe the scenarios with: a) Existing traffic and existing response capacity if no navigational aids would have been implemented (1-1) b) Existing traffic, no response capacity but with existing navigational aids (1-2) c) Existing traffic, existing response capacity and existing navigational aids (1-3) The response capacities include "dedicated capacities" for all countries It is assumed that all ships that potentially can reach the pollution are alerted simultaneously This includes cross-border assistance as well as assistance from other sub-regions 342 Future scenario The scenario numbers for these scenarios start with "2", ref Table 3-2 This scenario includes the prognosis for the traffic and redistribution within goods categories for the year 2020 It also includes the navigational aids that are decided to be implemented by the year 2020 and it includes response capacities as at present This scenario is used to compare the effect of different future scenarios (Scenario 3-1 to scenario 4-5) 343 Navigational aids scenarios The scenario numbers for these scenarios start with "3", ref Table 3-2 These scenarios describe the impacts of introduction of different navigational aids The list comprises Mandatory pilotage in the Danish Straits; Vessel Traffic System in Kattegat, Fehmarn Belt, Bornholm and Gotland; Traffic Separation Scheme in Kattegat; ECDIS; Double hull at cargo tank for ships larger than 5000 BRT; Double hull at bunker tank; Escort towing for all tankers in narrow shipping lanes where escort towing is available now O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

17 Response capacity scenarios The scenario numbers for these scenarios start with "4", ref Table 3-2 These scenarios describe the impacts of introduction of increased response capacities The list comprises Re-allocation of existing capacities; Additional response equipment as proposed by Partners; 50% more response equipment; Night visibility; increased recovery of oil in ice A detailed and technical description of each scenario is given in the "321 Draft Scenario Report" O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

18 16 4 Model result maps This chapter describes the existing distribution of impact, environmental vulnerability and environmental damage for the entire Baltic Sea in order to give en overview of the distribution within the study area It is based on scenario 2-1, ie the ship traffic as in the prognosis for 2020, the navigational aids as decided upon and to be implemented by the year 2020 and finally a system of response capacities that correspond to existing capacities The maps comprise the following parameters Ship traffic density Risk for accidents Risk of oil spills Impact of oil spilled from ship accidents Environmental vulnerability towards oil Environmental damage due to oil Environmental damage due to soluble hazardous and noxious substances (HNS) For risk, impact and environmental damage due to oil spills and spills of HNS, three maps are prepared for each: All spill sizes Spills larger than 5,000 t Spills smaller than 5,000 t Four maps for environmental vulnerability are defined, one for each of the four seasons The impact of oil and the vulnerabilities are combined to determine the resulting environmental damage O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

19 17 41 Ship traffic density Figure 4-1 Ship traffic intensity determined based on AIS data from 1 July 2008 to 31 June 2009 O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

20 18 42 Risk of accidents Figure 4-2 Probability distribution for ship to ship collisions The size of the bubble is proportional with the probability of accidents Red dots: Head-on and overtaking collisions Blue dots: Crossing traffic collision O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

21 19 43 Risk of oil spills 431 All spills Figure 4-3 Risk of all spill sizes O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

22 Spills larger than 5,000 tonnes oil Figure 4-4 Risk of spills larger than 5,000 t O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

23 Spills smaller than 5,000 tonnes oil Figure 4-5 Risk of spills smaller than 5,000 t (This figure does not include illegal spills) 44 Impact of oil spills The impact of oil spills describes how much oil from accidental spills can be expected at different positions on the sea surface It is based on the spills described in the chapter above and includes drift and spreading of oil on the sur- O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

24 22 face, the fate and weathering processes as well as the recovery of oil by response vessels Oil that drifts on shore is considered as oil on coats and not on the se surface anymore The oil on the sea surface from a specific spill will cover a specific area with a specific thickness for a certain period of time The thickness of the specific spill is evenly distributed over the entire re-currency period of the specific spill volume This gives the average thickness over time for this specific spill volume The contributions for all spill volumes are integrated to an integrated thickness The theoretical thickness represents a statement on the distribution of the general risk for oil per square kilometre 441 All spills The oil impacts from all spill size classes are shown in Figure 4-6 below The figure describes the long term average oil impact given in grams oil per km 2 O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

25 23 Figure 4-6 Distribution of long term average oil impact (measured in grams oil per km 2 ) from all accident classes 442 Spills larger than 5,000 tonnes oil The oil impacts from spills larger than 5,000 tonnes are shown in Figure 4-7 below The figure describes the long term average oil impact given in grams oil per km 2 O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

26 24 Figure 4-7 Distribution of long term average oil impact (measured in grams oil per km 2 ) from accidents larger than 5,000 t 443 Spills smaller than 5,000 tonnes oil The oil impacts from spills smaller than 5,000 tonnes are shown in Figure 4-8 below The figure describes the long term average oil impact given in grams oil per km 2 O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

27 25 Figure 4-8 Distribution of long term average oil impact (measured in grams oil per km 2 ) from accidents smaller then 5,000 t 444 Spills of soluble hazardous and noxious substances Spills of Soluble hazardous and Noxious Substances (HNS) are investigated based on the same accident model as for spills of oil For ships declared as chemical tankers, carrying chemicals in bulk, the model applies the probability for risk of HNS chemicals It is evident that the probabilities for spills of chemicals are significantly smaller than the probabilities of spills of oil The risk of HNS spills is given below O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

28 26 Impact events per million years Figure 4-9 Distribution of impact from spills of HNS The colour code indicates how many times per million years the specific 2 km x 2 km grid cell is affected by accidental release of HNS Contrary to oil spills, which will stay at the water surface and follow the current and wind drift, the chemicals will mix in the water column The drift will be dominated by the currents and to a lesser extend by wind action Furthermore, no effect from recovery can be included, since recovery not is possible with the known technologies A comparison between impact from oil and impact from chemicals was based on the assumption that an oil film of 1/10 mm is considered as an impact Therefore, it is found that the likelihood of impact from oil is approx 10 5 to 10 7 times larger than from soluble HNS Although the uncertainty regime is large, O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

29 27 it is evident that the likelihood of impact from HNS can be considered to be orders of magnitude smaller It is seen from Figure 4-9 that the distribution of risk for impact from chemicals mainly follows the ship traffic routes This indicates that the chemical tankers are distributed along the general traffic pattern 45 Existing distribution of environmental vulnerability Environmental vulnerability, also called sensitivity, to oil spills is determined based on the methodology agreed among the Project Partners and the data supplied by the Project Partners The environmental vulnerability is determined for each of the four seasons and are given below The detailed description of the definitions and methodologies applied to obtain the environmental vulnerability to oil spills is given in the vulnerability report no 3133 It is emphasised that the maps of sensitivity parameters and for the resulting seasonal vulnerability maps are prepared according to the specific objectives of BRISK project That means that the requests to the maps regarding resolution, data quality, background documentation etc are common for the entire Baltic Sea Therefore, the maps provide basis for comparison on a Baltic Sea wide scale For local comparisons within a minor scale, other maps with higher resolution and possibly also with other parameters should be use This is valid for instance for the Russian part of the Gulf of Finland O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

30 Environmental vulnerability: Spring Figure 4-10 Environmental vulnerability in spring season O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

31 Environmental vulnerability: Summer Figure 4-11 Environmental vulnerability in summer season O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

32 Environmental vulnerability: Fall Figure 4-12 Environmental vulnerability in fall season O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

33 Environmental vulnerability: Winter Figure 4-13 Environmental vulnerability in winter season 46 Existing distribution of environmental damage The environmental damage is described in terms of an index It is based on the risk for spills and a weighted combination of the seasonal vulnerabilities in order to obtain an annual environmental damage map The analysis is carried out for different spill sizes The damage calculation is described in the appendix O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

34 Environmental damage from all oil spills The environmental damages from all spill size classes are shown in Figure 4-14 below The figure describes the long term average damage given in grams oil per km 2 weighted with the environmental vulnerability Figure 4-14 Distribution of the long term average environmental damage due to accidental spills (measured in weighted grams oil per km 2 ) from all accident size classes O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

35 Environmental damage from oil spills larger then 5,000 t The environmental damages from spill sizes larger than 5,000 t are shown in Figure 4-15 below The figure describes the long term average damage given in grams oil per km 2 weighted with the environmental vulnerability Figure 4-15 Distribution of the long term average environmental damage due to accidental spills (measured in weighted grams oil per km 2 ) from spills larger than 5,000 t O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

36 Environmental damage from oil spills smaller than 5,000 t The environmental damages from spill sizes smaller than 5,000 t are shown in Figure 4-16 below The figure describes the long term average damage given in grams oil per km 2 weighted with the environmental vulnerability Figure 4-16 Distribution of the long term average environmental damage due to accidental spills (measured in weighted grams oil per km 2 ) from spills smaller than 5,000t O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

37 Environmental damage from spills of soluble hazardous and noxious substances The environmental damage due to impact from soluble, hazardous and noxious substances (HNS) is based on the impact from Figure 4-9 and the environmental vulnerabilities as determined in chapter 45 The resulting distribution of the environmental damage index is given in Figure 4-17 below Damage (non dimensional index) Figure 4-17 Distribution of the long term average environmental damage due to accidental spills of HNS It is seen from Figure 4-17 that the damage due to HNS is distributed mainly along the coast line and in shallow areas O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

38 36 The likelihood of impact from HNS is orders of magnitude smaller compared to the likelihood of oil impacts Furthermore, a spill of HNS is practically impossible to recover - often, the only form of possible response is to stay out of the impact zone The effect of navigational aids to reduce the risk of accidents will have a similar positive effect for HNS as for oil Contrarily, the scenarios for increased recovery capacity will not have a similar effect Therefore, no additional response scenarios are modelled for HNS impact O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

39 37 5 Scenario results for the Baltic Sea 51 Effect parameters The effects of the scenarios are measured in terms of three parameters: Oil on water, oil reaching the coast and environmental damage 511 Oil on water "Oil on water" is measured in tonnes of oil per year per sub-region This parameter describes the amount of oil spilt due to accidents and includes the effect of all spill classes with their respective return period The expected situation for the year 2020 in case no additional measures are introduced and the existing level is maintained is illustrated for the amount of spilled oil in Figure 5-1 Example: A 100 year event of 100 tonnes will give an annual impact of 1 ton, a 5 year event of 10 tonnes will give an annual impact of 2 tonnes A one (1) year event of 0,5 tonnes will give a corresponding annual impact of 0,5 tonnes All spills together will hence give an annual impact of 3,5 tonnes This can also be expressed as 350 tonnes per 1000 years, which gives the same measure on another time scale These sum of all spills considered (in the example it was 3,5 tonnes) are to be considered as a measure of the impact of oil from all spills suited to compare with other regions O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

40 38 Figure 5-1 For each sub-region: Oil spilled during accidental releases of spills smaller than 5000t and spills larger than 5000t Scenario 2-1: Traffic scenario is for the year 2020, level of preparedness as decided upon at present 512 Oil on coast "Oil on coast" is a measured in tonnes per year and determined for the entire coastline of a specific area of concern, eg a sub-region This parameter gives the amount of oil that has reached the coast line after the processes of spreading, drift, weathering, fate as well as the process of recovery have been included in the modelling Also, for this parameter the effect of different spill sizes are accumulated as for the "oil on water" parameter The expected situation for the year 2020, in case no additional measures are introduced and the existing level is maintained, is illustrated for the amount of oil reaching the coast in Figure 5-2 O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

41 39 Figure 5-2 For each sub-region: Oil on coast during accidental releases of spills smaller than 5000t and spills larger than 5000t Scenario 2-1: Traffic scenario is for the year 2020, level of preparedness as decided upon at present 513 Environmental damage "Environmental damage" is measured as a dimensionless index It is the multiplication of the impact with the environmental sensitivity The accurate dimension is a mass/area index, but since a subjective index is incorporated into the parameter the resulting damage parameter is treated as a dimensionless index Again, the effects of different spill sizes are accumulated as for the "oil on water" parameter The expected situation for the year 2020, in case no additional measures are introduced and the existing level is maintained, is illustrated for the amount of environmental damage in Figure 5-3 O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

42 40 Figure 5-3 For each sub-region: Environmental damage during accidental releases of spills smaller than 5000t and spills larger than 5000t Scenario 2-1: Traffic scenario is for the year 2020, level of preparedness as decided upon at present 52 Effect of present effort and potential of scenarios For each sub-region the effect of the existing efforts is determined The existing efforts comprise Navigational Aids (NavA), such as pilotage, VTS, TSS, etc as well as response capacities (response vessels with their respective booms, skimmer, storage, etc) Further, the effects of all future scenarios that are included in the present study are illustrated This means that three different risk levels can be shown in Figure 5-4 to Figure 5-6 The risk distributions are given for the three parameters spilt oil, oil on coast and environmental damage For each sub-region the risk is given with three contributions: The worst case: How the risk would be without any human effort to avoid spills or to response to spills (yellow) Traffic as expected in 2020 Status quo: How the risk is in 2020 (traffic as expected in 2020, existing NavAs and NavAs that already are decided upon, response level as it is at present plus as it has been decided upon The best situation: Traffic as expected for 2020, existing NavAs and capacities (as above) plus effect of all investigated scenarios of this study The risk distributions are given for the three risk parameters spilt oil (Figure 5-4), oil on coast (Figure 5-5) and environmental damage (Figure 5-6) O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

43 41 Figure 5-4 Risk for spills for each sub-region Top of the total bars indicates the risk in case of no NavA and no response capacities The yellow parts represent the effect of existing efforts Top of the light blue bars indicates the risk as it is today The light blue part of the bars represent the risk reductions by all scenarios The dark blue bars indicates the remaining risk if all scenarios are implemented Figure 5-5 Risk for oil on coast for each sub-region Top of the total bars indicates the risk in case of no NavA and no response capacities The yellow parts represent the effect of existing efforts Top of the light blue bars indicates the risk as it is today The light blue part of the bars represent the risk reductions by all scenarios The dark blue bars indicates the remaining risk if all scenarios are implemented O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

44 42 Figure 5-6 Risk for environmental damage for each sub-region Top of the total bars indicates the risk in case of no NavA and no response capacities The yellow parts represent the effect of existing efforts Top of the light blue bars indicates the risk as it is today The light blue part of the bars represent the risk reductions by all scenarios The dark blue bars indicates the remaining risk if all scenarios are implemented For the spilt oil (Figure 5-1) it is seen that the risk in absolute terms increases from the inner sub-regions of the Baltic Sea towards the North Sea This is in agreement with the findings from the traffic study and the accident study It also is seen that the three parameters confirm each others For the oil on coast parameters (Figure 5-2) it is of interest to observe that the sub-region 6 holds extraordinary high risk due to the narrow straits that are North-South oriented whereas the wind predominantly blows form the West to the East Therefore, the oil will reach the coast very quickly and often faster than the response equipment can remove oil from the surface For the environmental damage (Figure 5-3) it is seen that the sub-region 1 (Bothnian Sea and Gulf) is dominating even though the risk for spills is relatively small It is assumed that the reason for this that sub-region 1 is by far the largest sub-region and that this sub-region comprises relatively high sensitive areas (Finnish and Swedish archipelagos) The model results also imply that the areas with highest risks also are the areas where the effort from NavAs and response capacities already is the largest (yellow part of the bars) This confirms that the existing measures are applied in areas where they are mostly needed The effect of the existing efforts is significant compared to the remaining risk for all parameters and in all sub-areas The effect of the scenarios investigated (light blue part of the bars) for this study also is significant compared to the existing risk It appears from the de- O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

45 43 tailed results that 2-3 scenarios dominate the effect of all scenarios This implies that most of the effect can be achieved by few measures The figures in Figure 5-4 to Figure 5-6 show the absolute magnitude of the risks In order to describe the potentials in relative terms the Figure 5-7 is prepared It shows that the relative improvements (light blue bars in Figure 5-4 to Figure 5-6 represent a potential of about 25% The improvement for environmental damage seems to be larger than the improvement on spilt oil Figure 5-7 Relative potential for risk reduction for each sub-region including all scenarios It is seen that the highest improvement can be found in sub-region 3 This area does not include many response vessels close to the hot spots and the hotspots are a result of the tanker route that is only about 10 years old Further, it is seen the sub-region 2 comprises a relatively small amount of risk and a relatively small effect of the scenarios investigated The ship traffic and the tanker traffic in this region are fairly dense, but the existing navigational aids and the high level of existing response capacities reduce the risk considerably Other scenarios, not included in the present study, may have more effect 53 Response scenarios This chapter comprises the results for the response capacity scenarios 4-1 to 4-5, earlier shown in Table 3-2 and repeated in Table 5-1 below for clarity reason: Table 5-1 Overview of response scenarios traffic 2020 NAVA Re-allocation of ex- O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

46 44 prognosis traffic prognosis traffic prognosis traffic prognosis traffic prognosis isting capacities (vessels) 2020 NAVA Additional response equipment, as proposed by partners 2020 NAVA 50% more response equipment 2020 NAVA Night visibility (085) 2020 NAVA Recovery of oil from ice (from 20% to 40%) In the following, the changes in oil recovery are shown compared with the scenario 2-1, which is the 2020 ship traffic prognosis with navigational aids as decided upon at the moment and with recovery capacity as present Figure 5-8 Baltic Sea: Increase of oil recovery (tonnes per year) for scenarios 4-1 to 4-5 Dark blue columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills smaller than 5,000 t Violet columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills larger than 5,000 t Figure 5-8 indicates that recovery as proposed in scenarios 4,2 and 4,3 will provide the largest amount of recovered oil for the entire Baltic Sea O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

47 45 Figure 5-9 Baltic Sea: Reduction of oil on coast(tonnes per year) for scenarios 4-1 to 4-5 Light red columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills smaller than 5,000 t Dark red columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills larger than 5,000 t Figure 5-9 indicates that recovery as proposed in scenarios 4,2 and 4,3 will reduce the oil on coast mostly for the entire Baltic Sea Figure 5-10 Baltic Sea: Reduction of environmental damage (non dimensional damage index) for scenarios 4-1 to 4-5 Light red columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills smaller than 5,000 t Dark red: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills larger than 5,000 t O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

48 46 Figure 5-10 indicates that recovery as proposed in scenarios 4,2 and 4,3 will avoid the largest amount of environmental damage for the entire Baltic Sea 54 Additional scenarios This chapter comprises the results for the additional scenarios (scenarios 3-1 to 3-8) regarding navigational aids (NAVA) The scenarios were mentioned in Table 3-2 before and are repeated in Table 5-2 below for clarity reasons: Table 5-2 Overview of navigational aids scenarios traffic prognosis traffic prognosis traffic prognosis traffic prognosis traffic prognosis traffic prognosis traffic prognosis Mandatory Pilotage in the Danish Straits (add to 2020 NAVA) Maximum Vessel traffic system (VTS), Kattegat, Fehmarn, Bornholm and Gotland hotspots (add to 2020 NAVA) Traffic separation schemes (TSS) in Kattegat (add to 2020 NAVA) Electronic chart display and information system (ECDIS) for all large ships (add to 2020 NAVA) Double hull at the cargo tank (<5000 BRT) (add to 2020 NAVA) Double hull at bunker tank (add to 2020 NAVA) Escort towing for all tankers in narrow shipping lanes where towing is done now (add to 2020 NAVA) Exist response Exist response Exist response Exist response Exist response Exist response Exist response In the following the changes of the expected spills and the changes in expected recovery are shown compared with the scenario 2-1, which is the 2020 ship traffic prognosis with navigational aids as decided upon at the moment and with recovery capacity as present Scenario 3-2 (VTS at Gotland only) is omitted and not carried out because it a is a part of the scenario 3-3 (VTS at Danish Straits and Gotland) Since the (virtual) Gotland VTS is so far way from the (virtual) VTS in Danish Straits it assessed that the effect also will be clearly separated Therefore, these two scenarios are dealt with in one simulation O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

49 47 t/y Baltic Sea -Impact Rec >5000 Rec <5000 Less spilt, >5000t Less spilt, <5000t ,1 3,3 3,4 3,5 3,6 3,7 3,8 Scenario Figure 5-11 Baltic Sea: Scenarios 3-1 to 3-8 Red: Decrease of spill (tonnes per year) Red columns: Decrease of annual spilled amount from spills smaller than 5,000 t Dark red columns: Decrease of annual spilled amount from spills larger than 5,000 t Blue: Increase of oil recovery (tonnes per year) Dark blue columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills smaller than 5,000 t Violet columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills larger than 5,000 t Figure 5-11 indicates that scenario 3,3 (VTS in Danish waters and around Bornholm towards the north end of Gotland) by far has the largest impact of the amount of spilt oil in the Baltic Sea O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

50 48 Figure 5-12 Baltic Sea: Scenarios 3-1 to 3-8 Reduction of oil on coast (tonnes per year) Red columns: Decrease of annual amount of oil on coast from spills smaller than 5,000 t Dark red columns: Decrease of annual amount of oil on coast from spills larger than 5,000 t Figure 5-12 indicates that scenario 3,3 (VTS in Danish waters and around Bornholm towards the north end of Gotland) by far has the largest impact of the amount of oil reaching the coast in the Baltic Sea Figure 5-13 Reduction of environmental damage in different scenarios Red columns: Increase of environmental damage from spills smaller than 5,000 t Dark red columns: Increase of environmental damage from spills larger than 5,000 t Figure 5-13 indicates that scenario 3,3 (VTS in Danish waters and around Bornholm towards the north end of Gotland), scenario 3,5 (ECDIS) and scenarios 3,7 (Double hull at bunker tank) have the largest impact of the amount of environmental damage in the Baltic Sea O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

51 49 6 Sub-regional distribution of risk parameters 61 Sub-regions of the Baltic Sea The sub-regions defined in this project are given in Figure 6-1 below Figure 6-1 Sub-regions for the BRISK project in the Baltic Sea O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

52 50 The sub-regions comprise the following countries: SR1: SWE, FIN SR2: FIN, EST, RUS SR3: SWE, EST, LAT SR4: LIT, RUS, POL SR5: SWE, DEN, GER, POL SR6: SWE, DEN The countries in bold letters are the lead countries in their respective subregion Within each sub-region the specific interpretations of the modelled risk picture are carried out by the experts of the sub-region Also the investment plans are prepared by the sub-regional experts based on the model results of the common risk model 62 Sub-regional distribution of risk parameters In order to give a picture of how the risks are distributed between the different sub-regions the risk parameters are given below The parameters are based on scenario 21 This is the scenario where the traffic is as expected in 2020 and where the navigational aids and response capacities are as present plus the measures that are decided upon already and that are implemented by the year 2020 Figure 6-2 Average of amount of oil spilled per year (t/y) in the six sub-regions (SR1 to SR6) The dark blue columns represent amounts from spills smaller than 5,000 t The violet columns represent the amounts from spills larger than 5,000 t The total column height represents the total amount spilled The above Figure 6-2 indicates that the risk of spill is increasing from the northern sub-region (SR1) towards the southern sub-region (SR6), except for SR4 O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

53 51 Figure 6-3 Average of the amount of oil recovered per year (t/y) in the six subregions (SR1 to SR6) The dark blue columns represent recovered amounts from spills smaller than 5,000 t The violet columns represent the recovered amounts from spills larger than 5,000 t The total column height represents the total amount of recovered oil The above Figure 6-3 indicates a relation between spilled amounts (see Figure 6-2) and recovered amounts of oil Figure 6-4 Average of amount of oil beached on the coastline per year (t/y) in the six sub-regions (SR1 to SR6) The dark blue columns represent beached oil from spills smaller than 5,000 t The violet columns represent beached oil from spills larger than 5,000 t The total column height represents the total amount of beached oil O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

54 52 The above Figure 6-4 indicates that sub-region 6 has the highest risk for oil on the coastline Figure 6-5 Average of the environmental damage given as a non dimensional index in the six sub-regions (SR1 to SR6) The light red columns represent damage from spills smaller than 5,000 t The dark red columns represent damage from spills larger than 5,000 t The total column height represents the total amount of damage The above Figure 6-5 indicates that the environmental damage is relatively large in sub-region 1 This is due to the fact that the sub-region 1 is relatively large and that this sub-region comprises the Finnish archipelago, which is characterised by an extra-ordinary high vulnerability Sub-regions 5 and 6 represent areas with high vulnerability, probably due to the high risk for oil on water and oil on coast The remaining sub-regions exhibit less overall vulnerability, either because they are areas with low ship traffic (SR4) or because the areas have an eastwest extension, corresponding to the predominating wind direction and hence reduced risk for oil reaching the coast (SR2), or because the sub-region is rather large and the possible oil slicks will have to drift a long distance before reaching the coast (SR3) O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

55 53 7 Scenario results for sub-region 1 (Golf of Bothnia) The scenarios for this sub-region are divided into two groups The first group of scenarios, called the response scenarios, comprises the scenarios related to increase capacities for recovery of oil that has been spilled during accidents The second group of scenarios, called navigational aids scenarios (NavA), comprises the scenarios related to introduction of navigational aids that reduce the risk of accidents and hence of spilt oil 71 Response scenarios The chapter comprises five response scenarios The response scenarios comprise the effects of introduction of additional response capacities See scenario definition above and in the scenario report 321 Figure 7-1 Sub-region 1: Increase of oil recovery (tonnes per year) for scenarios 4-1 to 4-5 Dark blue columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills smaller than 5,000 t Violet columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills larger than 5,000 t Figure 7-1 indicates that scenarios 4,2 (additional response equipment as requested by the countries) and 4,3 (50% more response equipment) as well as O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

56 54 scenarios 4,4 (night visibility) represent he scenarios with best effect on the recovery of spilt oil in sub-region 1 Figure 7-2 Sub-region 1: Reduction of beached oil (tonnes per year) for scenarios 4-1 to 4-5 Light red columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills smaller than 5,000 t Dark red columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills larger than 5,000 t Figure 7-2 indicates that scenarios 4,2 (additional response equipment as requested by the countries) and 4,3 (50% more response equipment) as well as scenarios 4,4 (night visibility) represent he scenarios with best effect on oil on coast in sub-region 1 Figure 7-3 Sub-region 1: Reduction of environmental damage (non-dimensionless index) for scenarios 4-1 to 4-5 Red columns: Increase of environmental damage from spills smaller than 5,000 t O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

57 55 Dark red columns: Increase of environmental damage from spills larger than 5,000 t Figure 7-3 indicates that scenarios 4,2 (additional response equipment as requested by the countries) and 4,3 (50% more response equipment) as well as scenarios 4,4 (night visibility) represents the scenarios with best effect on environmental damage in sub-region 1 It is seen that the scenarios 4,2, 4,3 and 4,4 show the best effects in sub-region 1 for all three parameters 72 Additional scenarios The chapter comprises seven additional scenarios The additional scenarios comprise the effects of introduction of additional navigational aids, see scenario definition above and in the scenario report 321 Figure 7-4 Sub-region 1: Scenarios 3-1 to 3-8 Red: Decrease of spill (tonnes per year) Red columns: Decrease of annual spilled amount from spills smaller than 5,000 t Dark red columns: Decrease of annual spilled amount from spills larger than 5,000 t Blue: Increase of oil recovery (tonnes per year) Dark blue columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills smaller than 5,000 t Violet columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills larger than 5,000 t Figure 7-4 indicates that scenarios 3,5 (ECDIS, electronic sea charts) and 3,7 (Double hull at bunker tanks additional to the requirements coming to force 2020) represent the scenarios with the highest decrease of risk for oil spill in sub-region 1 Since less oil will be spilt, also less oil will be recovered - this is a logical consequence O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

58 56 Figure 7-5 Sub-region 1: Scenarios 3,1 to 3,8 Reduction of oil reaching the coast (tonnes per year) Red columns: Decrease of annual amount of oil reaching the coast from spills smaller than 5,000 t Dark red columns: Decrease of annual amount of oil reaching the coast from spills larger than 5,000 t Figure 7-5 indicates that scenarios 3,5 (ECDIS, electronic sea charts) and 3,7 (Double hull at bunker tanks additional to the requirements coming to force 2020) represent the scenarios with highest decrease of risk of oil on coast in sub-region 1 Figure 7-6 Sub-region 1: Reduction of environmental damage (non-dimensional) for scenarios 3,1 to 3,8 Red columns: Increase of environmental damage from spills smaller than 5,000 t Dark red columns: Increase of environmental damage from spills larger than 5,000 t O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

59 57 Figure 7-6 indicates that scenarios 3,5 (ECDIS, electronic sea charts) and 3,7 (Double hull at bunker tanks additional to the requirements coming to force 2020) represent the scenarios with the most positive effect on the environmental damage in sub-region 1 It is seen that the scenarios 3,3 (VYS) has a minor positive effect in this subregion although no VTS is planned here This effect of scenario 3,3 is interpreted as the effect of the scenario in sub-region 3, of Gotland, which is expected to have an effect on sub-region 1 It is seen that the scenarios 3,5 and 3,7 show the best effects in sub-region 1 for all three parameters O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

60 58 8 Scenario results for sub-region 2 (Gulf of Finland) The scenarios for this sub-region are divided into two groups The first group of scenarios, called the response scenarios, comprises the scenarios related to increase capacities for recovery of oil that has been spilt during accidents The second group of scenarios, called navigational aids scenarios (NavA), comprises the scenarios related to introduction of navigational aids that reduce the risk of accidents and hence of spilt oil 81 Response scenarios The chapter comprises five response scenarios The response scenarios comprise the effects of introduction of additional response capacities See scenario definition above and in the scenario report 321 Figure 8-1 Sub-region 2: Increase of oil recovery (tonnes per year) for scenarios 4-1 to 4-5 Dark blue columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills smaller than 5,000 t Violet columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills larger than 5,000 t O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

61 59 Figure 8-1indicates that scenarios 4,2 (additional response equipment as requested by the countries) and 4,3 (50% more response equipment) as well as scenarios 4,4 (night visibility) represents the scenarios with best effect on the recovery of spilt oil in sub-region 2 Figure 8-2 Sub-region 2: Reduction of beached oil (tonnes per year) for scenarios 4,1 to 4,5 Light red columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills smaller than 5,000 t Dark red columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills larger than 5,000 t Figure 8-2 indicates that scenarios 4,2 (additional response equipment as requested by the countries) and 4,3 (50% more response equipment) as well as scenarios 4,4 (night visibility) represents the scenarios with best effect on oil on coast in sub-region 2 O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

62 60 Figure 8-3 Sub-region 2: Reduction of environmental damage (non-dimensional) for scenarios 4,1 to 4,5 Red columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills smaller than 5,000 t Dark red columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills larger than 5,000 t Figure 8-3 indicates that scenarios 4,2 (additional response equipment as requested by the countries) and 4,3 (50% more response equipment) as well as scenarios 4,4 (night visibility) represents the scenarios with best effect on environmental damage in sub-region 2 It is seen that the scenarios 4,2, 4,3 and 4,4 show the best effects in sub-region 2 for all three parameters 82 Additional scenarios The chapter comprises seven additional scenarios The additional scenarios comprise the effects of introduction of additional navigational aids, see scenario definition above and in the scenario report 321 Figure 8-4 Sub-region 2: Scenarios 3,1 to 3,8 Red: Decrease of spill (tonnes per year) Red columns: Decrease of annual spilled amount from spills smaller than 5,000 t Dark red columns: Decrease of annual spilled amount from spills larger than 5,000 t Blue: Increase of oil recovery (tonnes per year) Dark blue columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills smaller than 5,000 t Violet columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills larger than 5,000 t O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

63 61 Figure 8-4 indicates that scenarios 3,5 (ECDIS, electronic sea charts) and 3,7 (Double hull at bunker tanks additional to the requirements coming to force 2020) represents the scenarios with highest decrease of risk for spill of oil in sub-region 2 It is seen that the scenarios 3,3 (VTS) has a positive effect in this sub-region although no VTS is planned here This effect of scenario 3,3 is interpreted as the effect of the scenario in sub-region 3, of Gotland, which is expected to have an effect on sub-region 2 Figure 8-5 Sub-region 2: Scenarios 3,1 to3,8 Reduction of beached oil (tonnes per year) Red columns: Decrease of annual beached amount from spills smaller than 5,000 t Dark red columns: Decrease of annual beached amount from spills larger than 5,000 t Figure 8-5 indicates that scenarios 3,3 (VTS at Gotland), scenario 3,5 (ECDIS, electronic sea charts) and scenario 3,7 (Double hull at bunker tanks additional to the requirements coming to force 2020) represent the scenarios with highest decrease of risk of oil on coast in sub-region 2 It is seen that the scenarios 3,3 (VTS) has a positive effect in this sub-region although no VTS is planned here This effect of scenario 3,3 is interpreted as the effect of the scenario in sub-region 3, of Gotland, which is expected to have an effect on sub-region 2 O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

64 62 Figure 8-6 Sub-region 2: Reduction of environmental damage (non-dimensional) for scenarios 3,1 to 3,8 Red columns: Increase of environmental damage from spills smaller than 5,000 t Dark red columns: Increase of environmental damage from spills larger than 5,000 t Figure 8-6 indicates that scenarios 3,3 (VTS at Gotland), scenario 3,5 (ECDIS, electronic sea charts) and scenario 3,7 (Double hull at bunker tanks additional to the requirements coming to force 2020) represent the scenarios with the most positive effect on the environmental damage in sub-region 2 It is seen that the scenarios 3,3 (VTS) has a positive effect in this sub-region although no VTS is planned here This effect of scenario 3,3 is interpreted as the effect of the scenario in sub-region 3, of Gotland, which is expected to have an effect on sub-region 2 Since scenario 3,3 has to be neglected here because the additional VTS lies outside the sub-region it is seen that the scenarios 3,5 and 3,7 show the best effects in sub-region 1 for all three parameters O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

65 63 9 Scenario results for sub-region 3 (Baltic Proper) The scenarios for this sub-region are divided into two groups The first group of scenarios, called the response scenarios, comprises the scenarios related to increase capacities for recovery of oil that has been spilt during accidents The second group of scenarios, called navigational aids scenarios (NavA), comprises the scenarios related to introduction of navigational aids that reduce the risk of accidents and hence of spilt oil 91 Response scenarios The chapter comprises five response scenarios The response scenarios comprise the effects of introduction of additional response capacities See scenario definition above and in the scenario report 321 Figure 9-1 Sub-region 3: Increase of oil recovery (tonnes per year) for scenarios 4,1 to 4,5 Dark blue columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills smaller than 5,000 t Violet columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills larger than 5,000 t O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

66 64 Figure 9-1indicates that scenarios 4,2 (additional response equipment as requested by the countries) and 4,3 (50% more response equipment) as well as scenarios 4,4 (night visibility) represents the scenarios with best effect on the recovery of spilt oil in sub-region 3 Figure 9-2 Sub-region 3: Reduction of beached oil (tonnes per year) for scenarios 4,1 to 4,5 Red columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills smaller than 5,000 t Dark red columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills larger than 5,000 t Figure 9-2 indicates that scenarios 4,2 (additional response equipment as requested by the countries) and 4,3 (50% more response equipment) as well as scenarios 4,4 (night visibility) represents the scenarios with best effect on oil on coast in sub-region 3 O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

67 65 Figure 9-3 Sub-region 3: Reduction of environmental damage (tonnes per km 2 weighted) for scenarios 4,1 to 4,5 Red columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills smaller than 5,000 t Dark red columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills larger than 5,000 t Figure 9-3indicates that scenarios 4,2 (additional response equipment as requested by the countries) and 4,3 (50% more response equipment) as well as scenarios 4,4 (night visibility) represents the scenarios with best effect on environmental damage in sub-region 2 It is seen that the scenarios 4,2, 4,3 and 4,4 show the best effects in sub-region 3 for all three parameters 92 Additional scenarios The chapter comprises seven additional scenarios The additional scenarios comprise the effects of introduction of additional navigational aids, see scenario definition above and in the scenario report 321 Figure 9-4 Sub-region 3: Scenarios 3,1 to 3,8 Red: Decrease of spill (tonnes per year) Red columns: Decrease of annual spilled amount from spills smaller than 5,000 t Dark red columns: Decrease of annual spilled amount from spills larger than 5,000 t Blue: Increase of oil recovery (tonnes per year) Dark blue columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills smaller than 5,000 t Violet columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills larger than 5,000 t O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

68 66 Figure 9-4 indicates that scenario 3,3 (VTS at Gotland) by far has the largest effect in sub-region 3 Scenario 3,7 (Double hull at bunker tanks additional to the requirements coming to force 2020) has a minor effect Figure 9-5 Sub-region 3: Scenarios 3,1 to 3,8 Reduction of beached oil (tonnes per year) Red columns: Decrease of annual beached amount from spills smaller than 5,000 t Dark red columns: Decrease of annual beached amount from spills larger than 5,000 t Figure 9-5indicates that scenarios 3,3 (VTS at Gotland), scenario 3,5 (ECDIS, electronic sea charts) and scenario 3,7 (Double hull at bunker tanks additional to the requirements coming to force 2020) represent the scenarios with highest decrease of risk of oil on coast in sub-region 3 Figure 9-6 Sub-region 3: Reduction of environmental damage (non-dimensional) for scenarios 3,1 to 3,8 O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

69 67 Red columns: Increase of environmental damage from spills smaller than 5,000 t Dark red columns: Increase of environmental damage from spills larger than 5,000 t Figure 9-6 indicates that scenario 3,3 (VTS at Gotland), scenario 3,5 (ECDIS, electronic sea charts) and scenario 3,7 (Double hull at bunker tanks additional to the requirements coming to force 2020) represent the scenarios with the most positive effect on the environmental damage in sub-region 3 It is seen that the scenarios 3,3 (VTS) has a dominant positive effect in this subregion It is seen that scenario 3,3 shows the best effects in sub-region 3 for all three parameters Scenarios 3,5 and 3,7 also show good effects, but on a lower level O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

70 68 10 Scenario results for sub-region 4 (S-E Baltic Sea) The scenarios for this sub-region are divided into two groups The first group of scenarios, called the response scenarios, comprises the scenarios related to increase capacities for recovery of oil that has been spilt during accidents The second group of scenarios, called navigational aids scenarios (NavA), comprises the scenarios related to introduction of navigational aids that reduce the risk of accidents and hence of spilt oil 101 Response scenarios The chapter comprises five response scenarios The response scenarios comprise the effects of introduction of additional response capacities See scenario definition above and in the scenario report 321 Figure 10-1 Sub-region 4: Increase of oil recovery (tonnes per year) for scenarios 4,1 to4,5 Dark blue columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills smaller than 5,000 t Violet columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills larger than 5,000 t O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

71 69 Figure 10-1indicates that scenarios 4,2 (additional response equipment as requested by the countries) and 4,3 (50% more response equipment) as well as scenario 4,4 (night visibility) represent he scenarios with best effect on the recovery of spilt oil in sub-region 4 The effect of scenario 4,1 (re-location of vessel in this sub-region) even has negative effect The effect of scenario 4,5 (enhanced recovery in ice conditions) is not relevant in this region and has therefore no effect Figure 10-2 Sub-region 4: Reduction of beached oil (tonnes per year) for scenarios 4,1 to 4,5 Red columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills smaller than 5,000 t Dark red columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills larger than 5,000 t Figure 10-2 indicates that scenarios 4,2 (additional response equipment as requested by the countries) and 4,3 (50% more response equipment) as well as scenario 4,4 (night visibility) represent he scenarios with best effect on oil on coast in sub-region 4 Again, scenario 4,1 (re-location) has a negative effect and scenario 4,5 (ice recovery) has no effect O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

72 70 Figure 10-3 Sub-region 4: Reduction of environmental damage (non-dimensional index) for scenarios 4,1 to 4,5 Red columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills smaller than 5,000 t Dark Red columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills larger than 5,000 t Figure 10-3indicates that scenarios 4,2 (additional response equipment as requested by the countries) and 4,3 (50% more response equipment) as well as scenario 4,4 (night visibility) represent he scenarios with best effect on environmental damage in sub-region 4 It is seen that the scenarios 4,2, 4,3 and 4,4 show the best effects in sub-region 4 for all three parameters 102 Additional scenarios The chapter comprises seven additional scenarios The additional scenarios comprise the effects of introduction of additional navigational aid, see scenario definition above and in the scenario report 321 O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

73 71 Figure 10-4 Sub-region 4: Scenarios 3-1 to 3-8 Red: Decrease of spill (tonnes per year) Red columns: Decrease of annual spilled amount from spills smaller than 5,000 t Dark red columns: Decrease of annual spilled amount from spills larger than 5,000 t Blue: Increase of oil recovery (tonnes per year) Dark blue columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills smaller than 5,000 t Violet columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills larger than 5,000 t Figure 10-4 indicates that scenario 3,5 (ECDIS, electronic sea charts) and scenario 3,7 (Double hull at bunker tanks additional to the requirements coming to force 2020) have the largest effect in sub-region 4 All other scenarios show a significantly smaller effect O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

74 72 Figure 10-5 Sub-region 4: Scenarios 3,1 to 3,8 Reduction of beached oil (tonnes per year) Red columns: Decrease of annual amount of oil on coast from spills smaller than 5,000 t Dark red columns: Decrease of annual amount of oil on coast from spills larger than 5,000 t Figure 10-5 indicates that scenarios 3,5 (ECDIS, electronic sea charts) and scenario 3,7(Double hull at bunker tanks additional to the requirements coming to force 2020) have the largest effect in sub-region 4 All other scenarios have a significantly smaller effect Figure 10-6 Reduction of environmental damage in different scenarios Red columns: Increase of environmental damage from spills smaller than 5,000 t Dark red columns: Increase of environmental damage from spills larger than 5,000 t O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

75 73 Figure 10-6 indicates that scenario 3,5 (ECDIS, electronic sea charts) and scenario 3,7 (Double hull at bunker tanks additional to the requirements coming to force 2020) have the largest effect in sub-region 4 All other scenarios have a significantly smaller effect It is seen that the scenarios 3,5 (ECDIS) and 3,7 (Double hull at bunker tanks) have the highest positive effect in this sub-region It is seen that the scenarios 3,5 and 3,7 show the best effects in sub-region 4 for all three parameters O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

76 74 11 Scenario results for sub-region 5 (S-W Baltic Sea) The scenarios for this sub-region are divided into two groups The first group of scenarios, called the response scenarios, comprises the scenarios related to increase capacities for recovery of oil that has been spilt during accidents The second group of scenarios, called navigational aids scenarios (NavA), comprises the scenarios related to introduction of navigational aids that reduce the risk for accidents and hence for spilt oil 111 Response scenarios The chapter comprises five response scenarios The response scenarios comprise the effects of introduction of additional response capacities See scenario definition above and in the scenario report 321 Figure 11-1 Sub-region 5: Increase of oil recovery (tonnes per year) for scenarios 4-1 to 4-5 Dark blue columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills smaller than 5,000 t Violet columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills larger than 5,000 t O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

77 75 Figure 11-1indicates that scenarios 4,2 (additional response equipment as requested by the countries) and 4,3 (50% more response equipment) as well as scenarios 4,4 (night visibility) represent he scenarios with the best effects on the recovery of spilt oil in sub-region 4 The effect of scenario 4,1 (re-location of vessel in sub-region 4) has a small positive effect The effect of scenario 4,5 (enhanced recovery in ice conditions) is not relevant in this region and has therefore no effect Figure 11-2 Sub-region 5: Reduction of beached oil (tonnes per year) for scenarios 4,1 to 4,5 Light red columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills smaller than 5,000 t Dark red columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills larger than 5,000 t Figure 11-2 indicates that scenarios 4,2 (additional response equipment as requested by the countries) and 4,3 (50% more response equipment) as well as scenarios 4,4 (night visibility) represent the scenarios with the best effects on oil on coast in sub-region 5 Again, scenario 4,1 (re-location) has a small positive effect Scenario 4,5 (ice recovery) has no effect O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

78 76 Figure 11-3 Sub-region 1: Reduction of environmental damage (tonnes per km 2 weighted) for scenarios 4-1 to 4-5 Red columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills smaller than 5,000 t Dark red columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills larger than 5,000 t Figure 11-3 indicates that scenarios 4,2 (additional response equipment as re- equipment) as well as quested by the countries) and 4,3 (50% more responsee scenarios 4,4 (night visibility) represent he scenarios with the best effects on environmental damage in sub-region 5 Again, scenario 4,1 (re-location) has a small positive effect Scenario 4,5 (ice recovery) has no effect It is seen that all scenarios (but 45 which is irrelevant here) 4,2, 43, 44 and 41show effect in sub-region 5 for all three parameters O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

79 Additional scenarios The chapter comprises seven additional scenarios The additional scenarios comprise the effects of introduction of additional navigational aids, see scenario definition above and in the scenario report 321 Figure 11-4 Sub-region 5: Scenarios 3-1 to 3-8 Red: Decrease of spill (tonnes per year) Red columns: Decrease of annual spilled amount from spills smaller than 5,000 t Dark red columns: Decrease of annual spilled amount from spills larger than 5,000 t Blue: Increase of oil recovery (tonnes per year) Dark blue columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills smaller than 5,000 t Violet columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills larger than 5,000 t Figure 11-4 indicates that scenario 3,3 (VTS at Gotland, Bornholm and Fehmarn) by far has the largest effect in sub-region 5 O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

80 78 Figure 11-5 Sub-region 5: Scenarios 3,1 to 3,8 Reduction of beached oil (tonnes per year) Red columns: Decrease of annual beached amount from spills smaller than 5,000 t Dark red columns: Decrease of annual beached amount from spills larger than 5,000 t Figure 11-5 indicates that scenario 3,3 (VTS at Gotland)has the largest effect Scenarios 3,1 (Relocation of two vessels in sub-region 4), 3,5 (ECDIS, electronic sea charts) and scenario 3,7 (Double hull at bunker tanks additional to the requirements coming to force 2020) represent the scenarios with some decrease of risk of oil on coast in sub-region 5 Figure 11-6 Reduction of environmental damage in different scenarios 3,1 to 3,8 Red columns: Increase of environmental damage from spills smaller than 5,000 t Dark red columns: Increase of environmental damage from spills larger than 5,000 t O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

81 79 Figure 11-6 indicates that scenario 3,3 (VTS at Gotland) has the largest effect Scenarios 3,1 (Relocation of two vessels in sub-region 4), 3,5 (ECDIS, electronic sea charts) and scenario 3,7 (Double hull at bunker tanks additional to the requirements coming to force 2020) represent the scenarios with some decrease of risk for environmental damage in sub-region 5 It is seen that scenario 3,3 shows the best effects in sub-region 3 for all three parameters Scenarios 3,1, 3,5 and 3,7 also show good effects, but on lower levels O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

82 80 12 Scenario results for sub-region 6 (Kattegat) The scenarios for this sub-region are divided into two groups The first group of scenarios, called the response scenarios, comprises the scenarios related to increase capacities for recovery of oil that has been spilt during accidents The second group of scenarios, called navigational aids scenarios (NavA), comprises the scenarios related to introduction of navigational aids which reduce the risk for accidents and hence for spilt oil 121 Response scenarios Figure 12-1 Sub-region 6: Increase of oil recovery (tonnes per year) for scenarios 4-1 to 4-5 Dark blue columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills smaller than 5,000 t Violet columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills larger than 5,000 t Figure 12-1 indicates that scenarios 4,2 (additional response equipment as requested by the countries) and 4,3 (50% more response equipment) as well as scenarios 4,4 (night visibility) represent he scenarios with the best effects on O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

83 81 the recovery of spilt oil in sub-region 4 The effects of scenario 4,2 (re-location of vessel in sub-region 4) and scenario 4,5 (enhanced recovery in ice conditions) are not relevant in this region and have therefore no effect Figure 12-2 Sub-region 6: Reduction of beached oil (tonnes per year) for scenarios 4,1 to 4,5 Light red columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills smaller than 5,000 t Dark red columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills larger than 5,000 t Figure 12-2 indicates that scenarios 4,2 (additional response equipment as requested by the countries) and 4,3 (50% more response equipment) as well as scenario 4,4 (night visibility) represent the scenarios with best effect on oil on coast in sub-region 6 Figure 12-3 Sub-region 6: Reduction of environmental damage (tonnes per km 2 weighted) for scenarios 4,1 to 4,5 O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

84 82 Red columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills smaller than 5,000 t Dark red columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills larger than 5,000 t Figure 12-3 indicates that scenarios 4,2 (additional response equipment as requested by the countries) and 4,3 (50% more response equipment) as well as scenarios 4,4 (night visibility) represent he scenarios with the best effects on environmental damage in sub-region 6 It is seen that the scenarios 4,2, 4,3 and 4,4 show the best effects in sub-region 6 for all three parameters 122 Additional scenarios The chapter comprises seven additional scenarios The additional scenarios comprise the effects of introduction of additional navigational aids, see scenario definition above and in the scenario report 321 Figure 12-4 Sub-region 6: Scenarios 3,1 to 3,8 Red: Decrease of spill (tonnes per year) Red columns: Decrease of annual spilled amount from spills smaller than 5,000 t Dark red columns: Decrease of annual spilled amount from spills larger than 5,000 t Blue: Increase of oil recovery (tonnes per year) Dark blue columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills smaller than 5,000 t Violet columns: Increase of annual oil recovery from spills larger than 5,000 t Figure 12-4 indicates that scenario 3,3(VTS at Kattegat and Fehmarn) by far has the largest effect in sub-region 6 Also scenario 3,4 (TSS, Traffic separation in Kattegat) shows a high effect O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

85 83 Figure 12-5 Sub-region 6: Scenarios 3,1 to 3,8 Reduction of beached oil (tonnes per year) Red columns: Decrease of annual amount of oil on coast from spills smaller than 5,000 t Dark red columns: Decrease of annual amount of oil on coast from spills larger than 5,000 t Figure 12-5 indicates that scenarios 3,3 (VTS at Kattegat) has the largest effect Scenario 3,4 (TSS in Kattegat) also represents some decrease of risk of oil on coast in sub-region 6 Figure 12-6 Reduction of environmental damage in different scenarios 3,1 to 3,8 Red columns: Increase of environmental damage from spills smaller than 5,000 t Dark red columns: Increase of environmental damage from spills larger than 5,000 t Figure 12-6 indicates that scenarios 3,3 (VTS at Kattegat), 3,4 (Traffic separation in Kattegat), 3,5 (ECDIS, electronic sea charts) and scenario 3,7 (Double O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

86 84 hull at bunker tanks additional to the requirements coming to force 2020) have the largest effect for reduction of environmental damage in sub-region 6 It is seen that scenario 3,3 shows the best effects in sub-region 6 for the two first parameters Scenarios 3,4, 3,5 and 3,7 also show good effects on the parameter environmental damage O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

87 85 13 Reference scenarios per sub-region In order to describe the effect of the navigational aids and the response capacities that already are in place, the scenarios 1,1, 1,2 and 1,3 are described in comparison to scenario 2,1 (2020 traffic scenario with navigational aids decided upon and with unchanged response capacity), see Table 13-1 Table 13-1 List of reference scenarios ID Traffic Navigational aids (NAVA) Response Capacity /9 traffic No NAVA Exist response /9 traffic Exist NAVA No response /9 traffic Exist NAVA Exist response traffic prognosis 2020 NAVA (already decided upon) Exist response The negative values mean that the scenarios represent situations with negative spill reduction, ie by going back to a situation without navigational aids like in 1,1 we would have more spills The blue columns in scenario 1,2 indicate the effect of the existing level of response capacity The red column represents the effect of the navigational aids that are decided to be implemented until 2020 It is seen that the response (blue columns) is a minor part of the spill reduction The negative effect of scenario 1,3 (existing situation) means that the increase in traffic is more than counter balanced by an increase in safety in the period from now until 2020 This is most likely due to the effect of eg emergency towing, ECDIS, bridge control or escort towing O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

88 Entire Baltic Sea Figure 13-1 Red columns: Expected long term annual average spill Blue: columns: Expected long term annual recovery For the entire Baltic Sea the existing measures had an effect of approx 3400 t less spilt oil The results for the reference scenarios indicate that a significant reduction of risk has been achieved Compared to the existing situation (scenario 1,3), approximately 2500 tonnes per year ( t) are not spilled into the entire Baltic Sea due to the navigational aids, scenario 11 The effect of the existing response capacity in the Baltic Sea is correspondingly determined as the difference between scenario 12 and scenarios 13: The effect is found to be of the order of 400 tonnes per year ( t) The modelled total annual spill in the existing situation is about 6600 tonnes and this number would be about 9500 tonnes if the navigational aids would not be in place, corresponding to an increase of 44% 132 Sub-region 1 (Golf of Bothnia) O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

89 87 Figure 13-2 Red columns: Expected long term annual average spill Blue: columns: Expected long term annual recovery The existing measures in sub-region 1 had an effect of approximately 80 t less spilt oil 133 Sub-region 2 (Gulf of Finland) Figure 13-3 Red columns: Expected long term annual average spill Blue: columns: Expected long term annual recovery The existing measures in sub-region 2 had an effect of more than 400 t less spilt oil O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx

90 Sub-region 3 (Baltic Proper) Figure 13-4 Red columns: Expected long term annual average spill Blue: columns: Expected long term annual recovery The existing measures in sub-region 3 had an effect of approximately 200 t less spilt oil 135 Sub-region 4 (S-E Baltic Sea) Figure 13-5 Red columns: Expected long term annual average spill Blue: columns: Expected long term annual recovery O:\A005000\A005032\3_Pdoc\DOC\Deliverables-reports\322 Risk model results 11docx