Application of the Standardized Drought Vulnerability Index (SDVI) in the South Platte basin, Colorado

Transcription

1 Application of the Standardized Drought Vulnerability Index (SDVI) in the South Platte basin, Colorado Christos A. Karavitis, Panagiotis D. Oikonomou, Reagan M. Waskom, Demetrios E. Tsesmelis, Constantina G. Vasilakou, Nikolaos A. Skondras, Demetrios Stamatakos, Stavros Alexandris & Neil S. Grigg

2 Drought A frequent natural event that occurs in a great number of regions worldwide regardless their usual climatic conditions; Has diachronically manifested its existence in almost every culture by affecting human activities more than any other natural hazard; Attracts both public and interdisciplinary scientific attention.

3 Definition of Drought A creeping phenomenon, a non-event Operational definitions attempt to demarcate the severity, onset and termination point of droughts Conceptual definitions attempt to identify the boundaries of the drought event

4 Temporary Water Imbalances CONTEXT (Water Availability) Permanent Deficiencies PROCESS (Type of Environmental Transformation) Natural Man-made Drought Water Shortages XERASIA Aridity (and Deserts) Desertification

5 Drought a usually unexpected and unpredicted time period of abnormal dryness which affects water supply" (Grigg, N.S., 1988). The state of adverse and wide spread hydrological, environmental, social and economic impacts due to less than generally anticipated water quantities (Karavitis, 1992) Grigg, N.S., "Planning for security of local raw water supplies, Department of Civil Engineering, CSU, Ft. Collins, CO. Karavitis, C.A., Drought Management Strategies for Urban Water Supplies: The Case of Metropolitan Athens. Ph.D. Dissertation, Department of Civil Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Co.

6 Vulnerability The degree to which a system, subsystem, or system component is likely to experience harm due to exposure to a hazard, either a perturbation or stress/stressor (Turner et.al, 2003) Vulnerability = F(Hazard, Impacts) UN-ISDR, 2004 Turner et.al, A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. PNAS, 100(14), International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), Living With Risk: A Global Review of Disaster Reduction Initiatives. 2nd edn. Geneva, UN-ISDR.

7 Methodological Framework 1. Collection of data 7 Case studies (Climatic, water supply, water demand, crops, etc.). 2. Define a number of important indicators based on literature. 3. Selection of indicators (cspi6, cspi12, Supply, Demand, Impacts and Infrastructure) and classification of them. 4. Calculation of indicators. 5. Statistical Analysis of Indicators (Descriptive Statistics, Correlation Coefficient, Total Variance Explained, Sensitivity analysis & Classification). 6. Application in South Platte river basin.

8 1. Bulgaria 2. F.Y.R.O.M. 3. Greece 4. Hungary 5. Montenegro 6. Serbia 7. Slovenia 7 Case studies 252 basins enclosing 283 meteorological stations

9 SPI-based Drought Vulnerability Index The SDVI is composed of six components in four categories: 1. cspi-12 representing the non-agricultural water availability (hydropower, households and tourism) and cspi-6 portraying the agricultural (irrigation) use, respectively. Their values are calculated on local (meteorological station) scale. 2. Supply and Demand that describe the deficits in supplying capacity (network operation and losses) and in demand coverage. Their magnitude depends on the available and delivered amount of water. 3. Impacts that describe the losses (transformed into monetary units) that might have been caused due to the supply demand deficiencies.

10 SPI-based Drought Vulnerability Index 4. Infrastructure that describes the existing infrastructure level of development regarding the level of deficiency (divergence from the designed supply capacity). The values of the components included in the last three categories are calculated on a basin or sub-basin scale (in the case of infrastructure, average values are used). The assessment is based on a synthetic SPI-based Drought Vulnerability Index (SDVI) that was developed by Agricultural University of Athens (2011), in the context of Drought Management Centre in South-eastern Europe (DMCSEE Project-eu).

11 Relation between SDVI & drought aspects Aspects of Drought Meteorological Drought Hydrological Drought Agricultural Drought Social Drought cspi6 cspi12 Supply Demand Impacts Infrastructure

12 Indicators Classification

13 Principal Component Analysis (PCA) The two components account for a cumulative percentage of explained variance that reaches 74% Index Components Weights cspi cspi Supply 0.20 Demand 0.20 Impacts 0.16 Infrastructure SDVI = 0.17*cSPI *cSPI *Supply *Demand *Impacts *Infrastr.

14 Application in the South Platte

15 SPI 6 Component

16 SPI 12 Component

17 Water Demand Component ET J-00 O-00 J-01 A-02 J-03 Fort Collins East Month Average ETo 2012 O-03 J-04 A-05 J-06 O-06 J-07 A-08 J-09 O-09 J-10 A-11 J-12 O-12 J-13 A-14 Deviation from average (%) Class Jan % 2 Feb % 1 Mar % 3 Apr % 2 May % 1 Jun % 2 Jul % 1 Aug % 1 Sep % 1 Oct % 0 Nov % 0 Dec % 1

18 Water Supply Component FARMERS INDEPENDENT DITCH-ACFT N-49 N-52 N-55 N-58 N-61 N-64 N-67 N-70 N-73 N-76 N-79 N-82 N-85 N-88 N-91 N-94 N-97 N-00 N-03 N-06 N-09 N-12 Month Average Deviation from average (%) Class Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0 0 0

19 Impacts Component

20 Infrastructure Component

21 SDVI

22 Thank you for your attention