Thailand s Work on a National Baseline

Transcription

1 Thailand s Work on a National Baseline Chaiwat Muncharoen, D. Eng. Deputy Executive Director Thailand Greenhouse Gas Management Organization (Public Organization)

2 Total Emission (included LULUCF) = Mt CO 2 eq LULUCF, -7.90, -3.4% Agriculture, 51.88, 22.6% Industrial processes, 16.39, 7.2% Waste, 9.32, 4.1% Energy, , 69.6% GHG emission in 2000 (Mt CO 2 eq, %) - by sector N2O (Mt)Eq, 12.39, 5.4% CH4 (Mt)Eq, 58.83, 25.7% Net CO2, , 68.9% GHG emission in 2000 (Mt CO 2 eq, %) - by Gas Type

3 Emission in 2000 of Energy Sector (Mt CO 2 eq, %) Emission in 2000 by 'Energy Sector' (Mt CO2 eq, %) Waste 9.3, 4.1% LULUCF, - 7.9, - 3.4% Agriculture 51.9, 22.6% Energy, % 1A1 Energy Industries, 66.4, 41.7% 1A2 Manufacturing industries & construction, 30.8, Industrial processes, 16.4, 7.2% Total GHG Emission with LULUCF = MtEq 1B2 Oil and natural gas, 4.6, 2.9% 1B1 Solid fuels 0.7, 0.4% 1A3 Transport, 44.7, 28.0% 1A4b Residential, 1A4c 5.6, 3.5% Agriculture/Forestry/F ishing, 6.7, 4.2%

4 Emission in 2000 of Industrial Process (Mt CO 2 eq, %) Emission in 2000 by 'Industrial Processes' (MtCO2eq, %) Agriculture, % Energy, 159.4, 69.6% LULUCF, -7.9, -3.4% Waste, 9.3, 4.1% Industrial Processes, 16.4, 7.2% 2A Mineral products, 16.0, 97.9% 2B Chemical industry, 0.3, 2.0% 2C Metal production, 0.01, 0.0% Total GHG Emission with LULUCF = MtEq

5 Emission in 2000 of Agriculture (Mt CO 2 eq, %) Emission in 2000 by 'Agriculture' (Mt CO2 eq, %) Industrial processes, 16.4, 7.2% LULUCF, -7.9, -3.4% 4C Rice cultivation, Waste, 9.3, 4.1% 29.9, 57.5% Energy, 159.4, 69.6% Total GHG Emission with LULUCF = MtEq Agriculture, 51.9, 22.6% 4B Manure management, 5.1, 9.7% 4D Agricultural soils, 7.8, 15.0% 4F Field burning of agricultural residues, 1.0, 1.9% 4A Enteric fermentation, 8.3, 15.9%

6 Emission in 2000 of LULUCF (Mt CO 2 eq, %) Emission in 2000 by 'LULUCF' (Mt CO2 eq, %) Industrial processes, 16.4, 7.2% Energy, 159.4, 69.6% Agriculture, 51.8, 22.6% Waste, 9.3, 4.1% LULUCF, - 7.9, - 3.4% 5A Changes in forest & other woody biomass stocks, Mt CO2eq 5B Forest & grassland conversion, Mt CO2eq 5C Abandonment of managed lands, MtCO2eq Total GHG Emission with LULUCF = MtEq

7 Emission in 2000 of Waste Sector (Mt CO 2 eq, %) Industrial processes, 16.4, 7.2% Energy, 159.4, 69.6% Total GHG Emission with LULUCF = MtEq Emission in 2000 by 'Waste Sector' (Mt CO2 eq, %) Agriculture, 51.9, 22.6% LULUCF, - 7.9, - 3.4% Waste, 9.3, 4.1% 6B Waste-water handling, 4.4, 47.5% 6A Solid waste disposal on land, 4.9, 52.2% 6C Waste incineration, 0.02, 0.2%

8 National Emission in Time Series

9 Total GHG Emission (Mt CO2 eq) with LULUCF / with F-gases Energy Industrial proc. Mt CO2 Eq Agriculture LULUCF Waste Total national emissions and removals

10 Policies, measures, capacity building, Finance, Technology Supply Electricity

11 Source: Module 2 Mitigation Concept, UNFCCC

12 Concept Historical emission data Baseline setting GHG emission baseline (top-down) GHG emission forecasting (Annually up to 2050) Reference Scenario GHG emission options BAU policy case GHG mitigation policy case Technology part (bottom-up) Cost & GHG emission Cost & GHG emission MAC (2030 & 2050?) Scenario #1 LCS Scenario #2. Scenario #3.

13 Comparison of Models 13

14 Assumptions What are the main Parameters used for each sector and sources of information i.e. GDP, population, crude oil price, coal price, electricity tariff, industrial productivity, agricultural and forest area and how to test them? 14

15 BAU Projection with base year 2008 Baseline emission 1,400 MtCO Source: การศ กษาแนวทางการพ ฒนาเพ อจ ดท าข อม ลและแบบจ าลองส าหร บ Emission Inventory ของประเทศไทย, 2553 (TGO) 15

16 BAU Projection with base year 2008 and Climate Plan scenario Baseline emission 1,276 MtCO Existing Plans are BAU? Source: การศ กษาแนวทางการพ ฒนาเพ อจ ดท าข อม ลและแบบจ าลองส าหร บ Emission Inventory ของประเทศไทย, 2553 (TGO) 16

17 BAU Projection for Energy Sector with base year 2005 using Asia-pacific Integrated Model (AIM) Source: Low Carbon Society Vision 2030 Thailand,

18 Questions Modelling (any models) Assumptions (only GDP, population growth for all sectors, or others) Reference year (2005, 2010, latest year) BAU definition (including existing plans or without climate plans) Validity of the model (499 and 564 MtCO2 in 2030) 18

19 Technology and emission data Available technology, future technology, best available technology (Hydrogen, Nuclear, CCS included?) Available emission factor (default factor, local factor) 19

20 Mitigation Options Energy Sector Commercial & Residential Industrial Transportation Power Generation Building Code Efficient Equipment (HEPS, MEPS, Label No. 5) Efficient Equipment (HEPS, MEPS) Alternative Energy & Renewable Efficient Vehicle Alternative Energy Modal Shift Biofuel Travel Demand Management Power Plant Efficient Improvement Fuel Switching Renewable Technology CCS Technology 20

21 Mitigation Options Non Energy Sector Industrial Process and Product Use Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use Waste Clinker Substitution CCS BAT Livestock (Biogas, Eff. Feed conversion) Rice field (water drainage, NH4SO4) Agriculture Soil ( Nitrification, Fertilizer based soil analysis) Field Burning (Residue management, new tech. for harvesting) Forestry and Land Use ( maintain forest are and expand forest area into 40% in 2020 Management (Policy) Technology 21

22 Ranking criteria Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) Others (co-benefits) 22

23 Mitigation scenarios Base case (BAU) Conservative Scenario Development Scenario Others??? 23

24 Marginal abatement cost curve Scenario 1 Base case Scenario 2 Scenario 3 24

25 Contact Detail Thailand Greenhouse Gas Management Organization (Public Organization) 9 th floor, The Government Complex Building B 120 Moo 3 ChaengWattana Road, Laksi, Bangkok THAILAND Tel Fax info@tgo.or.th chaiwat.m@tgo.or.th URL:

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