Adapting Dam and Reservoir Design and Operations to Climate Change

Transcription

1 Adapting Dam and Reservoir Design and Operations to Climate Change Presentation by : Catherine Guay 1 Authors : René Roy 1, Marie Minville 1, Marco Braun 2, Diane Chaumont 2 1 Hydro-Québec Research Institute (IREQ), Varennes, QC, Canada 2 Ouranos Consortium, Montréal, QC, Canada CCTC 2013, Concordia University, Montréal, May 27-29

2 Presentation outline A. Climate change and hydropower B. The (cq)² project 1. Project overview 2. Study domain 3. Methodology 4. Results C. Conclusions 2

3 A. CLIMATE CHANGE AND HYDROPOWER

4 HYDRO-QUÉBEC RELIES ON CLIMATE 60 power houses (36,671 MW) 97% of the electricity generated from hydro 26 large reservoirs (total capacity of 175 TWh) 571 dams 33,453 km of electric lines La Grande :: 41% (Churchill Falls :: 19%) Manicouagan :: 23% St-Maurice :: 5% Outaouais :: 5% 4 St-Laurent :: 7%

5 Annual Energetic Inflow in GWh (deviation from the mean) HYDRO-QUÉBEC RELIES ON CLIMATE Annual energetic disparity for Hydro-Quebec (+Churchill Falls) 5

6 EXTREME CLIMATE EVENTS OVER QUEBEC Saguenay (1996 : 800 M $) Ice rain event (1998 : 1,6 Billions $) 6

7 MAJOR CONCERNS Precipitations and wind Climate Evolution Temperatures WATER RESOURCES WATER RESOURCES EXTREME EVENTS ELECTRIC DEMAND Water Resources Management Generation Planning Generation Optimization Planning new Generation Equipments Design of new Generation Equipments Environmental considerations Financial considerations Security of the population Security of the installations Generation Transport Distribution Safe Design for the Equipments Environmental considerations Financial considerations Intra-annual Load profile Annual Load Volume Energetic Supply Environmental considerations Financial considerations 7

8 HOW TO COPE WITH CLIMATE CHANGE > Corporate Research Project (12 Resources, 5 FTE) > Partnership in the Ouranos consortium Objective : Improve our knowledge of future climate : To limit the adverse effects for specific fields of activities and/or To take advantage of some potential changes Approach : a) Identify the main issues b) Participate in the development of climate scenarios c) Analyze the impacts of CC on targeted activities d) Develop adaptation strategies 8

9 B. THE (cq)² PROJECT

10 B.1. PROJECT OVERVIEW > (cq)² stands for : climate change and Québec streamflow (Q) > Collaboration project between: > Objective Deliver a concerted message to users and managers of water resources on the impact of climate change on Québec hydrology Sharing best practices in hydrological modeling Including the most recent advances in climate science (climate models, GHG scenarios, post-processing methods, etc.) 10

11 B.2. STUDY DOMAIN 305 calibrated basins: 87 Hydro-Québec basins 202 CEHQ gages 17 RTA basins 11

12 B.3. METHODOLOGY CLIMATE PROJECTIONS from various climate models and post-processing methods (435 scenarios for each catchment) CALIBRATED HYDROLOGICAL MODEL (HSAMI) Control period ENSEMBLE OF HYDROLOGICAL PROJECTIONS Streamflow Evapotranspiration 2050 Horizon Snowmelt and accumulation etc. 12

13 B.4. RESULTS KEY VARIABLES > Information relevant to basin supply forecast Change in precipitation Change in annual mean flow Change in spring flood date 13

14 Q moy Occurence B.4. RESULTS THE ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK 1. Median change 2. Consensus on direction of change 3. Dispersion of change Recent past Time (years) 2050 horizon Time (years) Q moy Climate scenarios x 435 climate scenarios median Q Q moy 14

15 Q moy Occurence Occurence B.4. RESULTS THE ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK 1. Median change 2. Consensus on direction of change 3. Dispersion of change Recent past Time (years) horizon + Time (years) Q moy Climate scenarios x 435 climate scenarios Q moy - + Q Q moy 15

16 Occurence B.4. RESULTS THE ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK 1. Median change 2. Consensus on direction of change 3. Dispersion of change - + Climate scenarios Q moy % % Very probable increase Probable increase % No signal Q % 0 10 % Probable decrease Very probable decrease 16

17 Occurence B.4. RESULTS THE ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK 1. Median change 2. Consensus on direction of change 3. Dispersion of change 25 th percentile 75 th percentile Dispersion Climate scenarios Q moy Q 17

18 18 B.4. RESULTS PRECIPITATION

19 19 B.4. RESULTS MEAN ANNUAL FLOW

20 20 B.4. RESULTS DAYS WITH SNOW COVER

21 21 B.4. RESULTS MAX AMOUNT OF SNOW

22 C. CONCLUSIONS

23 C. CONCLUSIONS > Climate evolution will impact future hydrology, and thus dam and reservoir management, as well as power generation and electric demand. > Actual climate science and hydrological modeling tools provide sufficient knowledge to estimate probable changes in hydrological variables. > In northern Québec, an increased hydraulicity can be expected at the 2050 horizon, whereas in the south, more arid conditions should occur. 23

24