Renewables the next chapter

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1 Renewables the next chapter Dr. Fatih Birol Executive Director, International Energy Agency Symposium du SER, Paris, 8 February 2018 IEA

2 Tipping the energy world off its axis Four large-scale upheavals in global energy: - The United States is turning into the undisputed global leader for oil & gas - Solar PV is on track to be the cheapest source of new electricity in many countries - China s new drive to make the skies blue again is recasting its role in energy - The future is electrifying, spurred by cooling, electric vehicles & digitalisation There are many possible pathways ahead & many potential pitfalls if governments or industry misread the signs of change

3 The future is electrifying Electricity generation by selected region China United States India European Union Southeast Asia Middle East Africa TWh 2016 Growth to 2040 Sources of global electricity demand growth Large appliances Other Electric vehicles Connected & small appliances Industrial motors Cooling Source: World Energy Outlook 2017 India adds the equivalent of today s European Union to its electricity generation by 2040, while China adds the equivalent of today s United States

4 Solar PV forges ahead in the global power mix Global average annual net capacity additions by type in the Sustainable Development Scenario Coal Gas Nuclear Renewables Solar PV Wind Other Coal Gas Nuclear Renewables Solar PV Wind Other GW China, India & the US lead the charge for solar PV, while Europe is a frontrunner for onshore & offshore wind. Renewables deliver 63% of total world generation by 2040 in the SDS, requiring 12 USD trillion of cumulative investment

5 Wind & solar transforming the power sector, but challenges emerge Share of wind and solar in total electricity generation in selected countries Denmark Spain Germany United Italy United States China France Canada India VRE share 2010 VRE share % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% % of VRE generation Policies need to maximise the value of renewable electricity in time and location, and incentivise grid strengthening, more flexible power plants, storage and demand side response

6 Progress in electricity access is uneven Population without electricity access Million people 600 Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa India Other Asia Other Asia India Many countries, led by India, are on track to achieving full electrification by 2030, but despite recent progress efforts in sub-saharan Africa need to redouble

7 The potential of clean energy technology remains under-utilised Solar PV and onshore wind Energy storage Electric vehicles Nuclear Transport Fuel economy of light-duty vehicles Energy efficiency in industry Lighting, appliances and building equipment More efficient coal-fired power Carbon capture and storage Building energy efficiency Transport biofuels Not on track Accelerated improvement needed On track Recent progress in some clean energy areas is promising, but many technologies still need a strong push to achieve their full potential and deliver a sustainable energy future

8 Conclusions Energy efficiency & renewables will be at the heart of the energy transition, with renewables dominating global electricity growth More flexible power systems, adapted market design and policies are required to integrate large shares of solar & wind in a secure and cost-effective way Massive untapped potential of renewables still exists in buildings, industry and transport - through renewable heat, biofuels and hydrogen-rich chemicals The IEA supports the global clean energy transition in providing cutting-edge technical advice to governments, particularly in major emerging economies