What can transmission do for a renewable Europe?

Transcription

1 What can transmission do for a renewable Europe? with Rolando A. Rodriguez, Gorm B. Andresen, Martin Greiner, and Stefan Schramm (then) FIAS Frankfurt, Frankfurt University, Germany (now Fraunhofer IWES and Kassel University) and Renewable Energy Systems Group, Aarhus University, Denmark February 19, 2016

2 1 Overview 2 Data and Methodology Weather-driven electricity generation Growth of wind and solar installations DC power flow Benefit of transmission Quantile caps 3 Network evolution Grid Total line investments 4 Import/Export Examples 5 Shift of optimal mix End-point mixes Shift Linecaps 6 Conclusions

3 Weather-driven electricity generation Generation from weather data Mismatch to load ) n(t) = γ n (α n W W n(t) + (1 αn W )S n(t) L n L n(t) n mismatch at node n, L n load, W n norm. wind generation, S n norm. solar PV generation, γ n gross VRES share, α W n relative wind share

4 Logistic fit Wind power penetration γ DE α W DE Germany (wind) Historical values Target values (base) Logistic fit (base) Logistic fit (+1%) Logistic fit (+2%) Logistic fit (+5%) Logistic growth function: f(y; y 0, a, b, m) = a b em(y y 0 ) a(e m(y y 0 ) 1)+b

5 End-point mixes Backup energy (normalised) % bal., PV +2 % bal., PV +1 % bal., PV optimal α W DE +1 % bal., wind +2 % bal., wind +5 % bal., wind Mix αde W

6 DC power flow Given n for all nodes n, solve for F : n (KF ) n = 0 cover deficits with surplusses min l F 2 l minimize transmission dissipation n power surplus/deficit at node n, F l power flow along link l, K incidence matrix, encodes network topology, (KF ) n net flow out of node n

7 Generalisation DC power flow only works for n n = 0 energy conservation Unconstrained flows Generalisation: min n ( n (KF ) n ) = min n B n minimize residual deficit min l F 2 l minimize dissipation Back-up power to cover deficits if needed Shed surplusses if necessary Constraints on the transmission line capacities h l F l h l

8 Benefit of transmission Two extreme cases: No transmission C zero high total back-up energy B tot (C zero ) Unconstrained transmission C unconstrained low total back-up energy B tot (C unconstrained ) Backup energy (normalized) Incremental increase of existing capacities Scaling of existing capacities Quantile of unconstrained capacities Total international transfer capacity (normalized) Benefit of transmission of a general transmission layout C CL : β CL = B tot (C zero ) B tot (C CL ) B tot (C zero ) B tot (C unconstrained ) Resonable compromise: 90 % benefit of transmission capacities

9 Choice of interpolation Which links should be reinforced first? Backup energy (normalized) Incremental increase of existing capacities Scaling of existing capacities Quantile of unconstrained capacities Multiples of today s capacities Different quantiles of unconstrained flow Total international transfer capacity (normalized)

10 Quantile line capacities Occurences (normalized) Flow histogram PL to DE Unconstrained flow Installed today 90% Quantile 99% Quantile 99.9% Quantile 100% Quantile Nonzero, directed power flow/gw

11 Network evolution 2010 IE PT NO SE FI DK EE GB NL BE PL LV DE LT FR LU CZ SK CH AT HU ES SI HR IT BA RS RO 6.0 GW 4.0 GW 2.5 GW 1.5 GW 0.7 GW GR > 25.0 GW 25.0 GW 20.0 GW 15.0 GW 10.0 GW BG 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Gross share of wind and solar power Power transfer capacity

12 Network evolution 2020 IE PT NO SE FI DK EE GB NL BE PL LV DE LT FR LU CZ SK CH AT HU ES SI HR IT BA RS RO 6.0 GW 4.0 GW 2.5 GW 1.5 GW 0.7 GW GR > 25.0 GW 25.0 GW 20.0 GW 15.0 GW 10.0 GW BG 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Gross share of wind and solar power Power transfer capacity

13 Network evolution 2030 IE PT NO SE FI DK EE GB NL BE PL LV DE LT FR LU CZ SK CH AT HU ES SI HR IT BA RS RO 6.0 GW 4.0 GW 2.5 GW 1.5 GW 0.7 GW GR > 25.0 GW 25.0 GW 20.0 GW 15.0 GW 10.0 GW BG 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Gross share of wind and solar power Power transfer capacity

14 Network evolution 2040 IE PT NO SE FI DK EE GB NL BE PL LV DE LT FR LU CZ SK CH AT HU ES SI HR IT BA RS RO 6.0 GW 4.0 GW 2.5 GW 1.5 GW 0.7 GW GR > 25.0 GW 25.0 GW 20.0 GW 15.0 GW 10.0 GW BG 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Gross share of wind and solar power Power transfer capacity

15 Network evolution 2050 IE PT NO SE FI DK EE GB NL BE PL LV DE LT FR LU CZ SK CH AT HU ES SI HR IT BA RS RO 6.0 GW 4.0 GW 2.5 GW 1.5 GW 0.7 GW GR > 25.0 GW 25.0 GW 20.0 GW 15.0 GW 10.0 GW BG 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Gross share of wind and solar power Power transfer capacity

16 Investment per five year interval Logistic growth of wind (a) and solar PV (b) power Average power output of wind/gw Average power output of solar PV/GW Logistic wind growth AT IE BA IT BE BG LT LU CH CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR GB GR HR HU LV NL NO PL PT RO RS SE SI SK Mean Logistic solar PV growth AT IE BA IT BE LT BG LU CH CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR GB GR HR HU LV NL NO PL PT RO RS SE SI SK Mean Growth in 90% benefit line capacities (a) and incremental investment per five-years (b) Total line capacities (normalised) New line capacities per 5 year interval (norm.) Transmission layouts 70% benefit of transmission line capacities 90% benefit of transmission line capacities Unconstrained line capacities Transmission layouts 70% benefit of transmission line capacities 90% benefit of transmission line capacities Unconstrained line capacities

17 Denmark Production (normalised) Import opportunities for Denmark Deficit Import with CL unconstrained Import with CL 90 % Import with CL 90 % Import with CL today Production (normalised) Export opportunities for Denmark Excess generation Export with CL unconstrained Export with CL 90 % Export with CL 90 % Export with CL today

18 Spain Production (normalised) Import opportunities for Spain Deficit Import with CL unconstrained Import with CL 90 % Import with CL 90 % Import with CL today Production (normalised) Export opportunities for Spain Excess generation Export with CL unconstrained Export with CL 90 % Export with CL 90 % Export with CL today

19 France Production (normalised) Import opportunities for France Deficit Import with CL unconstrained Import with CL 90 % Import with CL 90 % Import with CL today Production (normalised) Export opportunities for France Excess generation Export with CL unconstrained Export with CL 90 % Export with CL 90 % Export with CL today

20 Germany Production (normalised) Import opportunities for Germany Deficit Import with CL unconstrained Import with CL 90 % Import with CL 90 % Import with CL today Production (normalised) Export opportunities for Germany Excess generation Export with CL unconstrained Export with CL 90 % Export with CL 90 % Export with CL today

21 Denmark Probabality Probabality Denmark, reference year 2030 γ DK =0.78, γ avg =0.55 Load Mismatch before sharing renewables Mismatch after sharing, Line capacities as of today Mismatch after sharing, 90% benefit of transm. line capacities Mismatch between load and generation (normalised) Denmark, reference year 2050 γ DK =0.98, γ avg =0.98 Load Mismatch before sharing renewables Mismatch after sharing, Line capacities as of today Mismatch after sharing, 90% benefit of transm. line capacities Mismatch between load and generation (normalised)

22 Spain Probabality Spain, reference year 2030 γ ES =0.70, γ avg =0.55 Load Mismatch before sharing renewables Mismatch after sharing, Line capacities as of today Mismatch after sharing, 90% benefit of transm. line capacities Mismatch between load and generation (normalised) Probabality Spain, reference year 2050 γ ES =0.97, γ avg =0.98 Load Mismatch before sharing renewables Mismatch after sharing, Line capacities as of today Mismatch after sharing, 90% benefit of transm. line capacities Mismatch between load and generation (normalised)

23 France Probabality France, reference year 2030 γ FR =0.50, γ avg =0.55 Load Mismatch before sharing renewables Mismatch after sharing, Line capacities as of today Mismatch after sharing, 90% benefit of transm. line capacities Mismatch between load and generation (normalised) Probabality France, reference year 2050 γ FR =0.99, γ avg =0.98 Load Mismatch before sharing renewables Mismatch after sharing, Line capacities as of today Mismatch after sharing, 90% benefit of transm. line capacities Mismatch between load and generation (normalised)

24 Germany Probabality Germany, reference year 2030 γ DE =0.63, γ avg =0.55 Load Mismatch before sharing renewables Mismatch after sharing, Line capacities as of today Mismatch after sharing, 90% benefit of transm. line capacities Mismatch between load and generation (normalised) Probabality Germany, reference year 2050 γ DE =0.97, γ avg =0.98 Load Mismatch before sharing renewables Mismatch after sharing, Line capacities as of today Mismatch after sharing, 90% benefit of transm. line capacities Mismatch between load and generation (normalised)

25 End-point mixes 0.6 Backup energy (normalised) Average isolated country, γ =1.00 Aggregated EU, γ = % bal., PV +2 % bal., PV +1 % bal., PV optimal α W EU % bal., wind Mix α W EU α W opt, EU agg. = 0.894, αw opt, EU avg. = 0.794

26 Shift of optimal mix Backup energy (normalised) European load-averaged mix α W % backup, PV Transmission layouts Zero transmission Line capacities as of today Unconstrained transmission 70% benefit of transmission line capacities 90% benefit of transmission line capacities +2% backup, PV +1% backup, PV backup optimal Scenario +1% backup, wind +2% backup, wind +5% backup, wind Wind resources decorrelate at distances around km J. Widén. Correlations between large-scale solar and wind power in a future scenario for Sweden. IEEE Transactions on 184, 2011.

27 Linecaps/Backup tradeoff Total line capacities (normalised) Scenarios +5% backup, PV +2% backup, PV +1% backup, PV backup optimal +1% backup, wind +2% backup, wind +5% backup, wind Backup energy (normalised) Scenarios +5% backup, PV +2% backup, PV +1% backup, PV backup optimal +1% backup, wind +2% backup, wind +5% backup, wind

28 Conclusions Model ingredients: Weather-based modelling Logistic growth of renewable installations DC power flow Results: Quantile line capacities useful approach Quadrupling today s line capacities yields 90% of potential benefit Transmission reduces backup energy by up to 40% BUT does not provide last-resort secure capacity Especially during critical times, backup power is not much reduced Further reading and references: Becker, S., Rodríguez, R.A., Andresen, G.B., Schramm, S., and Greiner, M.: Transmission grid extensions during the build-up of a fully renewable pan-european electricity supply, Energy 64, p (2014). Online at preprint available at