Electrofuels for the transport sector: A review of production costs?

Transcription

1 Electrofuels for the transport sector: A review of production costs? 73rd Semi-Annual ETSAP workshop, 18 th of June Selma Brynolf, selma.brynolf@chalmers.se Researcher at Mechanics and Maritime Sciences

2 Increasing interest for power to x. Web of Science results Articles and reports in our review The number of articles found in Web of Science and the articles and reports assessed in Tables 1 and 2 per year published. The error bar for 2016 represents the prognosis for the year, given the publication rate as of May The following search was done in Web of Science: TS = (electrofuel* OR power-to-gas OR power-to-liquids OR power-to-fuels OR (synthetic hydrocarbons OR synthetic fuels OR hydrocarbon fuels) AND (conversion of CO2 OR conversion of carbon dioxide OR carbon utilization OR carbon recycling)) AND TS = (economic* OR production costs OR techno-economic OR cost* OR efficiency). large differences among the studies broad range of production cost estimates (10 3, /MWh fuel ) technology matureness, installation costs, and external factors

3 The review includes Costs and efficiencies for the production steps electrolysers fuels synthesis carbon capture Production cost of power-to-x/electrofuels hydrogen methane methanol dimethyl ether diesel gasoline Sensitivity analysis of the parameters with the greatest impact

4 Reference scenario 2015 different e-fuel options assuming most optimistic (low/best), least optimistic (high/worst) and average values (base) Electrolyser Electricity Fuel synthesis and CO2 capture Parameters assumed for 2015, 5 MW reactor, CF 80%. Interest rate 5% Economic lifetime 25 years Investment costs: Alkaline electrolyzers /kw elec 1100 (600-2,600) uncertainties & indirect costs Methane reactor /kw fuel 600 ( ) Methanol reactor /kw fuel 1000 ( ) DME reactor /kw fuel 1000 ( ) FT liquids reactor /kw fuel 1300 ( ) Gasoline (via meoh) /kw fuel 1700 ( ) Electrolyzer efficiency 65 (43-69) % Electricity price 50 /MWh el CO 2 capture 30 /tco 2 O&M 4% Water 1 /m³

5 Reference scenario 2030 different e-fuel options assuming most optimistic (low/best), least optimistic (high/worst) and average values (base) Parameters assumed for 2030, 50 MW reactor, CF 80%. Interest rate 5% Economic lifetime 25 years Investment costs: Alkaline electrolyzers /kw elec 700 ( ) Methane reactor /kw fuel 300 (50-500) Methanol reactor /kw fuel 500 ( ) DME reactor /kw fuel 500 ( ) FT liquids reactor /kw fuel 700( ) Gasoline (via meoh) /kw fuel 900( ) Electrolyzer efficiency 66 (50-74) % Electricity price 50 /MWh el When data is harmonized between the fuel options (low compared to low etc) the differences between the fuel options are minor. E-gasoline only slightly more expensive CO 2 capture 30 /tco 2 O&M 4% Water 1 /m³ 11

6 Reference scenario and 8 sensitivity cases Capacity factor Interest rate (%) Electrolyser Electricity price Synthesis plant size Carbon capture Assumed revenue for ( 2015 /MWh) cost ( 2015 /ton) heat and O 2 /depreciation time (years) RS Alkaline Alkaline Small S1 PEM PEM Small S2 Alkaline SOEC Small S3 Alkaline Alkaline 0 0 Small S4 Alkaline Alkaline S5 Alkaline Alkaline Small S6 Alkaline Alkaline Small S7 Alkaline Alkaline Small S8 Alkaline Alkaline Small Large No No 80% 80% 5/* 5/* No No 80% 80% 5/* 5/* No No 80% 80% 5/* 5/* No No 20% 20% 5/* 5/* No No 80% 80% 5/* 5/* No No 80% 80% 5/* 5/* Yes Yes 80% 80% 5/* 5/* No No 80% 80% 10/* 10/* No No 80% 80% 5/10 5/10 *The depreciation time is based on the life span of the electrolyser presented in Table 5 and a 25 years life span for the fuel synthesis plant.

7 S1. PEM electrolyser => larger uncertainty, similar base cost S4. Larger plants => Lowest production cost S5. Air capture

8 Production cost e-methanol depending on capacity factor It seam beneficial to run e-fuels plants for at least 40% of the year Production costs may lie in the order of EUR/MWh in future

9 Fuel production cost somparison with other studies With base case assumptions productions costs are: /MWh fuel in /MWh fuel in 2030 Production cost found in literature Fossil fuels Methane from anaerobic digestion Methane from gasification of lignocellulose Methanol from gasification of lignocellulose DME from gasification of lignocellulose Ethanol from maize, sugarcane, wheat and waste FAME from rapeseed, palm, waste oil HVO from palm oil Synthetic biodiesel from gasification of lignocellulose Synthetic biogasoline from gasification of lignocellulose 90 Future production of electrofuels have the potential to be cost-competitive to the most expensive biofuels 16

10 Conclusions Most important cost contributors High capacity factors => electrolyser capital costs, electrolyser stack life span & electricity price Low capacity factors => electrolyser capital cost, electrolyser stack life span & other plant investment costs Very low (<20%) capacity factor => high electrofuels cost Electrofuels have the potential to be cost-competitive to the most expensive biofuels

11 Thanks for your attention! Selma Brynolf, Researcher at Mechanics and Maritime Sciences More information can be found in: Brynolf, S., Taljegard, M., Grahn, M. & Hansson, J Electrofuels for the transport sector: A review of production costs. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 81, Maria Grahn, Research leader Mechanics and Maritime Sciences Chalmers University of Technology maria.grahn@chalmers.se Selma Brynolf, Postdoc Mechanics and Maritime Sciences Chalmers University of Technology selma.brynolf@chalmers.se Julia Hansson, Postdoc Mechanics and Maritime Sciences Chalmers University of Technology IVL julia.hansson@ivl.se Maria Taljegård, PhD student Space Earth and Environment Chalmers University of Technology maria.taljegard@chalmers.se