What actions need to be taken to ensure a successful industrial transformation process?

Transcription

1 15 May 2018 Brussels EEAC workshop What actions need to be taken to ensure a successful industrial transformation process? Sascha Samadi, Wuppertal Institute

2 Five key options for reducing GHG emissions in the industrial sector 1. Increasing energy efficiency E.g. by utilizing waste heat 2. Increasing emission efficiency E.g. by substituting coal with gas; higher electrification; CCS 3. Increasing material efficiency o In production, e.g. by reducing material loss during production o In use phase, e.g. by increasing recycling rates 4. Increasing product use efficiency E.g. through more intensive use, as in the case of car sharing 5. Making consumption patterns more sustainable E.g. by travelling less or switching from car use to public transport demand side (should not be neglected) 2

3 Further research as well as intelligent policy mix needed to enable industrial sector decarbonization Identification and (multi-criteria) assessment of potential breakthrough technologies/processes capable of contributing to deep decarbonisation Identification and implementation of adequate economic, infrastructural and institutional framework conditions required for developing innovative technologies, processes and products Identification and implementation of adequate market structures for creating investment dynamics, while ensuring a level playing field across countries Support for the development of individual mitigation roadmaps for companies and industrial clusters, based on broad stakeholder participation Roadmaps for NRW and for the Port of Rotterdam as examples 3

4 Structure of the participatory process for the preparation of NRW s climate protection plan / /2015 6/2015 Start Phase 1: Conceptualisation (400 stakeholders) Climate Protection 6 working groups Steering Committee Adaptation to Climate Change Kick-off Event Workshops Interim results Phase 2: Specification/ Networking (800 stakeholders) Impact analysis of scenarios Regional Workshops Networking Events Public Municipalities Enterprises Draft Climate Action Plan Online consultation (1500 replies) Plan submitted to parliament 4

5 Study for the Port of Rotterdam industrial cluster: Stepwise approach to scenario definition Global Global GHG mitigation effort level I 4 I 2 I EU EU GHG emission reduction target & policy I BAU I -80 % I -90 to -95 % I Port economy Economic strategy of the port s industrial cluster I BAU I Technological Progress I Bio & CCS I Closed Carbon Cycle I Development of scenarios and discussion of scenarios with stakeholders 5

6 Further research as well as intelligent policy mix needed to enable industrial sector decarbonization Support for the build-up of new infrastructure (e.g. for hydrogen, powerto-x and if necessary CO 2 ) Strengthening the cooperation between industry and science for advancing the knowledge about ambitious transformation pathways Intensifying the debate and the exchange with civil society to help obtain the required support for investments and infrastructure build-up 6

7 At the WI we focus on the basic materials processing industries due to their high shares in overall GHG emissions Five basic materials are responsible for 20 % of global GHG emissions steel 25% other 44% Global industrial sector carbon emissions: 10 Gt CO 2 /a paper 4% aluminium 3% plastics 5% cement 19% Source: Own figure based on ETP 2017 (IEA 2017) 7

8 Sascha Samadi Thank you for your attention More information about our work on industry decarbonization can be found at: and

9 Back-up slides

10 Examples of long-term mitigation roadmaps prepared in recent years for two industrial regions in Europe NRW (2012/2013): Broad actor engagement for climate protection with focus on processing industries Port of Rotterdam (2017): Ambition to become European Front Runner Region

11 Some of the roughly 400 stakeholders involved...

12 Lessons learned from the participatory process Positive Highly productive discussion culture achieved in working groups Stakeholders gained awareness for different perspectives Confidence built between stakeholders and ministries Policymakers learnt about the different positions of stakeholders Probably higher chances for successful implementation of mitigation measures Starting point for further dialogue with stakeholders Negative Process is time-consuming and requires plenty of resources and expertise Stakeholders generally opposed to climate protection may be uncooperative

13 Lessons learned from the participatory process (II) Preconditions for a successful participatory process Government needs to provide a clear framework for the process Enough time is needed for thorough discussions Scientific expertise important before, during and after the process

14 Petrochemical cluster NRW/Flanders/NL Rotterdam Antwerp Geleen There are five Gelsenkirchen/R petrochemical clusters uhr within the region of Rotterdam/Flanders/ NRW The clusters are selfsufficient in regard to olefins but can Cologne interchange ethylene (and propylene to some extent)

15 Idea of co-creation of long-term climate policy Science studies (Participatory process with key stakeholders) recommendations State Government plan Aim: Explore an open, iterative process that empowers ut stakeholders, te at e ocess science & policy to co-create a new Participatory process with key stakeholders Science State government position Draft Climate Protection Plan plan

16 Steps taken in developing the scenarios for the port s industrial cluster Decarbonisation framework for scenario development Global GHG mitigation efforts EU emission reduction strategy PoR industrial cluster development Mitigation technology strategy Scenario literature, expert judgement, results of stakeholder feedback Energy and CO 2 emission scenarios for the Port of Rotterdam industrial cluster Stakeholder feedback Bottom-up modelling of sectors energy demands and CO 2 emissions Questionnaires and two workshops

17 The challenge of decarbonisation for the Port of Rotterdam industrial cluster Mt/a Today s CO 2 emissions* of the port s industrial cluster FCC catalyst regenera on hydrogen produc on high temp. heat steam cracking other steam gen. CHP electricity genera on Main mitigation options CCS electrolysis, CCS/CCU electric ovens, synfuel fired ovens CCS or electric ovens electric boilers, geothermal heat renewable electricity (partly from outside the port area), CCS * modelled values, 2016 Source: WI (2016) Additional key strategy in all areas: energy efficiency

18 Pathways and opportunities for the Port of Rotterdam industrial cluster 18

19 Comparison of cumulative CO 2 emissions of the port s industrial cluster in the four scenarios

20 What does deep electrification mean for the port s electricity balance? BAU demand BAU supply TP demand TP supply BIO demand BIO supply CYC demand CYC supply BAU demand BAU supply TP demand TP supply BIO demand BIO supply TWh/a CYC demand CYC supply net import net export wind and PV other thermal electricity genera on CHP electricity genera on electricity demand of P2H electricity demand of water electrolysis final energy demand

21 Where could net electricity imports come from? Electricity generation in the Netherlands and the port area in different scenarios Electricity genera on / demand in TWh Coal with CCS Coal (including oil and others) Gas with CCS Gas Nuclear Other renewables Biomass PV Wind Wind offshore Wind onshore Electricity demand 20 0 Trends to 2050 Energy [R]evolu on Reference Energy [R]evolu on Policy BaU TP BIO CYC 2014 NL 2015 Port PoR 2050 NL 2050 Port PoR

22 Identified potential for new economic activity at the port in a decarbonising world