ISAM Results for UNFCC Modeling Exercise

Transcription

1 Results for UNFCC Modeling Exercise Atul K. Jain Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Illinois, Urbana, IL Acknowledgements S. Smith, H. Kheshgi, K. Hayhoe

2 Phase 1-Model Validation CO2 Concentration (ppmv) CH4 Concentration (ppbv) HadCM Year HadCM Year N2O Concentration (ppmv) Comparison of Estimated Concentrations for IPCC SRES A2 Scenario with HadCM HadCM Year

3 Phase 1-Model Validation (cont.) Comparison of Estimated Temp. & Sea Level Changes for IPCC SRES A2 Scenario with HadCM3 Temperature Change (deg.c) HadCM3 Sea Level Change (cm) Year x (Thermal Expen.) (Thermal Expen.+Others) x HadCM Year

4 Integrated Science Assessment Model () Carbon Cycle. 's global carbon cycle component simulates CO 2 exchange between the atmosphere, carbon reservoirs in the terrestrial biosphere, and the ocean column and mixed layer Jain et al., 1994: Global Biogechemical Cycles Jain et al. 1995: J. Geophys. Res. Jain et al. 1996: Tellus Kheshgi, Jain, et al. 1996: Climatic Change Kheshgi, Jain et al. 1999a: J. Geophysics. Res. Kheshgi and Jain 2002: Global Biogechemical Cycles (in press)

5 Integrated Science Assessment Model () Methane Cycle. Simulate the main atmospheric chemical processes influencing the global concentrations of CH 4, CO, and OH, using a global CH 4 -CO-OH cycle model. Jain and Bach, 1994b: Theoretical and Applied Climatology Kheshgi, Jain et al., 1999b: J. Geophys. Res. Other GHGs. For N2O and halocarbons are calculated by a mass balance model Bach and Jain, 1990: Intl. J. Climatology Climate Model. Temperature and sea level changes based on energy-balance climate model of the type used in the 1990 IPCC assessment (Harvey et al., 1997: IPCC TR2 ). The climate component of calculates the perturbations in radiative forcings from CO 2 and other GHGs based on updated seasonal and latitudinal GHG radiative forcing analyses (Jain et al., 2000: J. Geophys. Res.)

6 Phase 2 - Methodology for Attribution Calculations Model Parameters: Baseline model parameters are used. Ranges of model parameters are described in the Carbon Cycle Chapter of IPCC WGI TAR and Kheshgi and Jain (2002). Time Frame Emission start and end dates 1890 and 2000 Historical and Future Emissions CO2: Historical emissions based on CDIAC. Future Emissions based on IPCC SRES A2 Scenario CH4, N2O: Historical emissions based on EDGAR database. Future Emissions based on IPCC SRES A2 Scenario Aerosol Emissions: Historical Emissions based on Smith (2002). Future Emissions based on IPCC SRES A2 Scenario Countries/Regions The four groups of countries are considered: OECD90, REF, ASIA, and ALM

7 Attribution Calculations (submitted) The relative contribution (RC i ) for a given region (i) is calculated based on linear scaling method where RC i G G = ( REGi )* 4 G: Global mean temperature or sea level changes (GHG+Aerosols) G -REGi : Global mean temperature or sea level changes (GHG+Aerosols) by assuming one of the regions (i) emissions zero over the time period i= 1 ( G G G REGi )

8 Temperature Contribution (fraction) due to GHGs ( Case) (Submitted) 0.5 OECD 0.4 REF ASIA ALM

9 Attribution Calculations (revised) The relative contribution (RC i ) for a given region (i) is calculated based on linear scaling method RC i where = ( G G REGi )* 4 i= 1 ( G G REGi ) + ( G G G: Global mean temperature or sea level changes (GHG+Aerosols) G aerosol ) G -REGi : Global mean temperature or sea level changes (GHG+Aerosols) by assuming one of the regions (i) emissions zero over the time period G -aerosol : Global mean temperature or sea level changes (GHG+Aerosols)

10 Temperature Contribution (deg. C) due to GHGs ( Case) OECD REF 2000 ASIA ALM Total Global Total = Total contribution of four groups of countries due to GHGs Global=Global Mean (GHG+SO2 Aerosols)

11 Temperature Contribution (deg. C) due to GHGs ( Case) Global Temperature Change: Base Line In 2000, the global mean temperature change due to GHGs (CO2, CH4, N2O) was more than twice than the temperature change due to GHG+ SO2 Aerosol Attribution Reference Case - Temperature Change Attributed to: GHGs (CO2, CH4, N2O) Largest to smallest contribution: (1) OECD (2) ASIA (3) REF, and (4)ALM

12 Contributions of Temperature Change by Gas and Region ( Case) Temperature Change (deg. C) 2000 CO2 Fossil CO2 Land CH4 N2O Aerosol Net OECD REF ASIA ALM

13 Contributions of Temperature Change by Gas and Region ( Case) Attribution Reference Case + Aerosols - Temperature Change Attributed to: GHGs + SOx CO2 FF CO2LU CH4 SOx *(1) OECD OECD ALM ASIA ASIA (2) ALM REF ASIA OECD OECD (3) REF ASIA OECD ALM REF (4) ASIA ALM REF REF ALM *Largest to smallest contribution

14 Fossil Fuel Emissions (GtC) OECD REF ASIA ALM Regional CO2 Fossil and Sulfur Emissions Sulfate Emissions (MtS) OECD REF ASIA ALM Year CDIAC Year Smith (2002, in preparation)

15 Uncertainties/Feedbacks

16 Relative Importance of Various Forcing ( )

17 Change in Direct Aerosol Radiative Forcings ( ): Spatial Variation IPCC (2001) Biomass OC & BC Fossil Fuel OC & BC Sulfate Aerosols

18 Change in Direct Aerosol Radiative Forcings ( ): Spatial Variation Aerosols have larger spatial variations in their radiative forcings. The net effect of BC (which warm) and sulfate (which cool) aerosols can either be warming or cooling at various locations

19 OH Feedback and Methane Concentration CH4 Concentration (ppbv) With OH Feedback Without OH Feedback Year Estimated CH4 Concentration for SRES A2 Scenario

20 OH Feedback and Methane Concentration OH is the major sink of CH4. Most importantly, OH has large spatial variations and its rates of formation and destructions depend on number of tropospheric pollutants, including CO, NOx, and VOCs.

21 CO2 Concentraion (ppmv) Climate-Carbon Cycle Feedback CO2 Only Reference (CO2+climate) Range (CO2+climate) Range (CO2+climate) Year Estimated CO2 Concentration for SRES A2 Scenario

22 Integrated Science Assessment Model () We are studying interactive feedback processes using Integrated Science Assessment Model ()

23 Global-Annual Mean Version of Integrated Science Assessment Model () Concentrations Global Mean Concentration CO 2 Equilibrium Temperature Realized Temperature Strat. & Trop. Cl & Br Loading Greenhous Gas Emissions CH 4 N 2 O Global Mean Temperature Change CFCs HCFCs, etc Aerosols Radiative Forcing Sea Level Global Mean Sea Level Change X

24 Current Version of with Temporal and Spatial Resolution EMISSIONS PNNL MiniCam Model GHG emissions from industrial & energy-related sources BIOSPHERE Agricultural Land Use Model CO2 fluxes from land use change CHEMICAL TRANSPORT 2D Atmospheric Chemical Transport Box Model Concentrations of GHG,aerosols and other radiatively active species CARBON CYCLE 2D Coupled Atmosphere- Ocean-Biosphere Model Carbon dioxide concentrations CLIMATE MODEL 2D Radiative Transfer Model 2D Atmosphere-Ocean Ocean-Land Moisture & Energy Balance Model IMPACT ASSESSMENT STUDIES Changes in global temperature, precipitation and sea level

25 GOAL The development of an ideal tool based on solid science to increase our understanding of earth system feedbacks and to address multi-dimensional science and policy issues related to climate change.

26 WWW INTERFACE Purpose: To make a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model available to the nonspecialist human users in a user-friendly format Audience: Graduate students, researchers from other disciplines, Educators, and Policymakers

27 Objectives To give Researchers/Educators/Policy Makers a tool for: understanding the science of global change using users see how physical processes and parameters in the climate system determine its behavior. understanding how policy makers assess the implications of their decisions students use a model identical to that used by policy makers in forming greenhouse gas emissions policies.

28 Climate-Chemistry-Climate Interactions: The Example of CH 4 UV TEMPERATURE O 3 H 2 O Chemical Feedbacks Climate on Chemistry Chemistry on Climate OH NOx CH 4 CO NMHCs Radiation on Chemistry and hence on Climate

29 Integrated Assessment Modeling as a Tool for Scientific and Policy Analysis To Study Feedbacks Throughout The Earth System In the science and policy world EMISSIONS Socio-economic + energy analyses and modeling CONCENTRATIONS Carbon Cycle & Chemical transport models IMPACTS CLIMATE CHANGE A-O-CIRCULATION A-O Models RADIATIVE FORCING Radiative transfer models

30 Integrated Science Assessment Model () as a Tool for Scientific and Policy Analysis Use all key Climate System Components and Feedbacks at an appropriate level of detail; Account for sub-grid climate processes by using empirical relationships to approximate net effects; Approximate the effects of various physical and chemical processes based on AOGCM and CTM Fully interactive during calculations; Evaluate chemical and climate feedback effects on policy developments; Treat uncertainty as an essential feature; Global in scope, but resolve regional distribution.

31 THE END

32 Land-Sea Configuration for

33 Integrated Assessment Integrated Assessment Human Activities Energy Use Land Surface Land Use Characteristics (Deforestation) FOCUS Atmospheric Composition Physical/Chemical Effects Climate, Including Ocean Hydrological Cycle Biological & Other Effects Agriculture Natural Ecosystem Water Resources Socioeconomic Effects Biodiversity Health Economic Activity