Past and future 20 years of solar energy

Transcription

1 Past and future 20 years of solar energy Peter D. Lund Aalto University, School of Science Espoo-Otaniemi, Finland Aurinkoenergia Pohjolassa-seminar, Helsinki June 17, 2014

2 Different paths from solar radiation into useful energy Heat, electricity, light, fuels, chemicals REF: Ripasso, Greenpacks

3 Huge technology improvements in solar energy in the past: case PV

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5 Price, $/Wp Cumulative volume, MWp Past trends in Photovoltaics - growing markets and falling prices price (PV) volume (PV) ,1 2014: $0.7/Wp 2017: $0.4/Wp?

6 PV close to grid-parity International Energy Agency (2014), Energy Technology Perspectives 2014, OECD/IEA, Paris

7 How much will PV costs come down? 2011: cost of commercial scale roof-top PV system $2.9 per W p 2013: $2.3 (-21%); 2015: $1.7 (-41%) 2020: $1.2 (-58%), some estimates at $1/Wp (-66%) 2050: <$0.5 per W p (-83%) Ref: McKinsey: Solar power: dark before dawn, April 2012

8 Gt CO2 Energy Technology Perspectives Scenario (IEA 2014) International Energy Agency (2014), Energy Technology Perspectives 2014, OECD/IEA, Paris

9 Global cumulative PV, MWp Yearly installed PV, MWp/yr Market breakthrough of PV Solar share of world electricity 2014 < 1%; By 2050: 5% (slowing progress) 25% (fast-track) cumulative installed/yr % of world electricity % of world electricity 2050 year Ref Lund PD. Fast market penetration of energy technologies in retrospect with application to clean energy futures. Applied Energy (2010), doi: /j.apenergy ; P.D. Lund:Exploring past energy changes and their implications for the pace of penetration of new energy technologies. Energy 35 (2010) ; P.D. Lund. How fast can businesses in the new energy sector grow? An analysis of critical factors. Renewable Energy 66 (2014)

10 Energy transition requires bridging systemic innovations Old 100% New 100% Multi-energy networks Flexible demand EV,ICT Storage E2T,V2G,E2Gas How does the energy system work with much renewable energy? Market mechanims New earning logic New business models Innovative policies New 0% Old 0%

11 Solutions for improved energy system flexibility&integration 1. RE in urban context 2. Grid infrastructures 3. Smart Grids 4. Electricity markets 5. Co-generation (CHP) 6. Electricity-to-Thermal 7. Electricity-to-Gas 8. RE+Gas integration 9. Demand flexibility 10.Energy storage

12 Built environment & smart infrastructures & system integration provide flexibility for new energy International Energy Agency (2014), Energy Technology Perspectives, OECD/IEA, Paris

13 Spatial PV power distribution in Megacities (Shanghai) Peak PV supply rel. to load Niemi, R., Mikkola, J., Lund P., Urban energy systems with smart multi-carrier energy networks and renewable energy generation, Renewable Energy 48 (2012)

14 RE share, % Storage capacity (hours) Role of electrical storage Self-use limit of variable PV electricity is ca 20 % of power demand PV hours storage increases this share 2-3 fold in Asian cities PV:Delhi, India ( 28.7 N) E D A B C Optimal storage capacity Average RE power / Power demand No storage RE %(+STO) RE %(-STO) STO(Wh)/RE(nom W) P.D. Lund et al. Smart energy system design for large clean power schemes in urban areas. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2014

15 Electricity-to-thermal (E2T) conversion of surplus renewable electricity Integrating thermal (heating, cooling) and power systems Oversizing PV beyons the self-use limit with a factor 3-5 and converting surplus into thermal energy Surplus PV for E2T Self-use of electricty P.D. Lund: Large-scale urban renewable electricity schemes Integration and interfacing aspects.energy Conversion and Management 63 (2012) PV 4-5 x self-use limit

16 How much more PV can be employed through E2T strategies? Helsinki, Finland 2 x Dhahran, Saudi-Arabia 3 x Shanghai, China 2 x PV share of electricity,%/year PV provides 100% of daily cooling demand PV provides 100% of daily heat demand PV matches hourly self-use limit of electricity and heat PV matches hourly self-use limit of electricity Lund, P., and Mikkola, J., Increasing the share of PV by a factor of 2-3 over the self-use limit through urban electricity-to-thermal conversion schemes, 3rd Solar Integration Workshop, October, London, UK, Proc. 3rd Solar Integration Workshop, 1-6 (2013).

17 Value chains on move Materials Fabrication Device BOS/BOP Integration Application Market

18 Energy-Climate Drivers I. Oil>98% of traffic, fossil fuels >80% of energy II. Coal (power) and oil (traffic) 80% of CO 2 III. 60 % of CO 2 down by 2050, >80% in OECD IV. 65% of energy used in cities (80% in 2040) V. 20% of population uses 80% of all energy

19 EXTRAS

20 Global solar energy resource REF : Science

21 Global solar energy resource lähde: Science

22 Market dynamics of 0-marginal cost PV Present: Renewables ; Avg. elec. price, Volatility Smart Infra: Renewables ; Avg. elec. price ; Volatility German electricity market (EEX) Traditional Solar Wind Source: Fraunhofer Institute, Germany

23 Variable renewables

24 Top solar (PV) shares A few countries >5% solar share of all electricity Several countries with a solar share >1% REF. EPIA

25 Reduction in solar yield Easy control of large-amounts of PV: Curtailing solar power 100 % 80 % 60 % 40 % 20 % 0 % 0 % 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 100 % Power cut-off limit (% of nominal PV power installed)