Renewables 2018 Analysis and Forecasts to 2023

Transcription

1 Renewables 218 Analysis and Forecasts to 223 Heymi Bahar Columbia University SIPA, 26 October 218 IEA

2 Context CO2 emissions to rise again in 218 Progress in energy efficiency is slowing Expensive energy is back Solar PV capacity rose faster than any other fuel in 217 driven by China; offshore wind installations broke a record with auction prices showing significant cost reduction potential Global electricity demand grew by over 3% in 217, a faster rate than overall energy demand but electricity only accounts for 2% of total final energy consumption The world energy system has a number of blind-spots that require policy attention to achieve a secure, sustainable and affordable energy system 2

3 Modern bioenergy: the overlooked giant of renewables Total final energy consumption from renewables, 217 Total final energy consumption from renewables by sector, 217 9% 31% 4% 6% Modern bioenergy 5% Hydropower Wind Solar PV Other renewables Electricity from renewables Electricity Heat Transport Mtoe Modern bioenergy is the only renewable source that can provide electricity, direct heat and transport fuels Two thirds of modern bioenergy heat is used in industry 3

4 Modern bioenergy set to lead renewables growth Mtoe Modern bioenergy Total energy consumption growth of renewables over Solar PV Wind Hydropower Total renewable energy consumption is expected to increase by almost 3% over , covering 4% of global energy demand growth 4

5 Renewables share of energy consumption increases by one-fifth 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % Share of renewables in the electricity, heat and transport sectors Electricity contributes to two-thirds of renewables growth but heat remains the largest end-use by 223 Overall, renewables are not on track to meet long-term climate goals % Renewable electricity Renewable transport Renewable heat % of renewables in total energy consumption 5

6 China becomes the largest RE consumer, Brazil has the highest share Renewables contribution to energy consumption by country in 217 and 223 Mtoe 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % European Union China United States Brazil India Modern bioenergy Hydropower Wind Solar PV Others % of renewables (right axis) China accounts for the largest absolute growth over the forecast period surpassing the EU, while renewable energy consumption in India increases by 5% 6

7 Competition accelerating cost reductions Fixed remuneration type of utility-scale projects GW Renewables 217, Renewables 218, Administratively set Competitively set Average auction price by project commissioning date USD/MWh Onshore wind price Offshore wind price Solar PV price Bioenergy price Around 6% of renewable capacity additions over driven by competitive remuneration schemes Announced contract prices need to be verified as project delivery schedules and final costs may differ 7

8 Renewables account for 7% of global capacity expansion Capacity growth (GW) Renewable net capacity growth by country Accelerated case Other Brazil Japan Africa and Middle East India European Union United States China In the accelerated case, renewable capacity could expand by 25% more reaching 1.3 TW, if governments address challenges concerning policy uncertainty, grid integration and affordable financing 8

9 Solar PV expansion in electricity larger than all renewables combined Renewable electricity capacity growth by technology GW Wind Utility-scale PV Distributed PV Hydropower Bioenergy Other renewables Accelerated case Distributed generation capacity growth makes the difference in solar PV s leadership Cumulative PV capacity could reach 1.1 TW and wind over.9 TW by 223 under the accelerated case 9

10 Policies for remuneration to play a key role for distributed generation Distributed PV capacity growth by policy type for remuneration of excess generation China Asia-Pacific North America 22% 3% Europe 3% 51% Latin America 21% MENA Capacity growth over (GW) All generation with fixed tariff Retail tariff Wholesale price Value-based tariff No remuneration Utilities revenue losses due to self-consumption to almost quadruple (USD 12 bln) by 223 but accounting for less than.3% of total retail bill collection revenues 1

11 Asia and Latin America dominate biofuel production growth Biofuel production growth Billion L Brazil United EU China India ASEAN States Ethanol Biodiesel Renewables consumption in transport in 223 Road biofuels Aviation biofuels Maritime biofuels Rail electricity Road electricity Other electricity Biofuels production grows by 16%; EVs electricity consumption triples, with renewables providing 3% of demand from electrified transport by

12 Biofuels open new avenues for more sustainable aviation Cost premium of commercial aviation biofuels (15% blend) per passenger from London 35 Cost per passenger (USD) Sydney Tokyo Delhi New York Berlin Policies remain key to bridge the cost gap between aviation biofuels and fossil jet fuels The most efficient aircraft could reduce fuel costs by around 15% 12

13 Bioenergy to continue dominating renewable heat consumption Renewable heat consumption by source in buildings and industry Mtoe Renewable electricity for heat Renewable district heat Geothermal Solar thermal Bioenergy 217 buildings 223 buildings 217 industry 223 industry Bioenergy is particularly prevalent in industry, whereas in buildings growth in solar heat and renewable electricity is pushing bioenergy from the top spot. 13

14 Waste: a key resource for greener cement production Bioenergy and waste consumption in the cement industry by country Mtoe Cement production by country, 217 United States 2% The share of bioenergy and waste in the cement industry could be doubled if the robust waste management frameworks present in Europe were replicated in large producing countries 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% % China India EU United States Bioenergy and waste consumption in 217 % of bioenergy and waste in 217 (right axis) Bioenergy and waste 223 potential 5% EU 5% RoW 3% India 6% China 57% IEA 218

15 Accelerated deployment is possible with right policies Mtoe Renewables upside potential over Electricity sector accelerated case Bioenergy scale-up potential for selected sectors Renewables excl. bioenergy Bioenergy for power Road transport biofuels Bioenergy in cement Sugar and ethanol electricity Aviation biofuels Policies could accelerate renewable electricity growth by 25%; bioenergy could accelerate consumption across all sectors with an enhanced use of available waste resources 15

16 Conclusions Even with ongoing cost reductions, government policy remains crucial to attract investment in renewables, ensure appropriate market design and reliable & cost-effective system integration Modern bioenergy will continue to lead renewables growth in the next five years and its untapped potential remains huge particularly in China, India, Brazil and the EU Further accelerating the use of modern bioenergy hinges on policies & incentives to foster innovation and on rigorous sustainability frameworks Greater use of solar, wind, bioenergy & other renewables together with energy efficiency & other clean energy technologies is needed in all sectors for emissions to peak rapidly then decline - Electrification of end-use sectors - Better alignment of energy efficiency and renewable energy policies - Enhanced direct renewable heat uses - Stronger renewables penetration in industry, including through hydrogen-based fuels & feedstocks 16

17 Thank you Renewables 218 Team Yasmina Abdelilah Heymi Bahar Ute Collier Karolina Daszkiewicz Hideki Kamatatara Pharoah Le Feuvre Tobias Rinke Questions and comments: 17