11 October, 2016, Petten

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "11 October, 2016, Petten"

Transcription

1 11 October, 2016, Petten

2 The REmap approach IRENA s REmap programme explores potential, cost and benefits of doubling the share of renewables in global energy mix (SE4ALL objective), key to realize SDG 7: Affordable and clean energy Technology Options: This is no a target setting exercise Each technology option is characterized by its cost and potentials Technology options can be combined into roadmaps or plans and translated into policy action Includes power, district heat, end-uses (industry, transport, buildings) Including sector coupling and power systems aspects Developed together with and validated by country experts 2

3 Country potentials and technology roadmaps REmap global analysis issued March 2016 Today 50 country roadmaps covering 85% of global energy use 10 country reports, 4 regional reports Bottom-up analysis of technology options to accelerate RE use Developed in close cooperation with country experts Leading institutes CNREC, NREL, UCC etc. All data, assumptions and detailed results are available online: - new REmap on REsource Dashboard Analysis can inform areas for cooperation and joint action, including investment, cost, benefits (climate, environment, security, macroeconomics) of possible new RE objectives 3

4 REmap country analyses Collaboration of IRENA and country experts What is the RE outlook by 2030 in government plans? Overall energy demand forecast Sectoral breakdowns Government targets for RE Share of RE in energy mix (in SE4ALL definition) What are the costs and benefits of the RE options? Accounting for forecast energy prices, discount rates, technology costs Derive set of metrics, e.g. investment needs, substitution cost (per technology), net system costs What are the additional RE deployment options? Accounting for RE resources in the country; realistic deployment potential Includes large number of technology options across sectors (power, DH, buildings, industry, transport) 4

5 REmap 2030 highlights Sustainable energy and climate change objectives can be reached by doubling the share of renewable energy by 2030 Doubling renewables in the world s energy mix by 2030 will lead to savings exceeding costs up to 15 times Savings related to air pollution alone are up to 10 times more than costs The transition to renewables, with greater energy efficiency, can limit the global temperature increase to below 2 degrees Doubling the share of renewable energy by 2030 is feasible, but only with immediate, concerted action in transport, buildings and industry 5

6 Expanding renewables in all sectors (2 770 Mtoe) Renewables use in buildings, industry, and transport as well as renewables-based district heating would account for nearly 60% of modern renewable energy use in

7 Doubling renewables is critical for meeting climate objectives Doubling the share of renewables by 2030 would put the world on a pathway to limiting global warming to degrees Renewable energy reduction potential on par with efficiency potential 7

8 Renewable energy boost global GDP Doubling the share of renewables by 2030 would increase global GDP by up to 1.1% or USD 1.3 trillion The increased investment in renewable energy deployment triggers ripple effects throughout the economy 8

9 REmap country and regional reports June 2014 November 2014 January 2015 November 2015 Purpose: translate analysis into actionable options Dominican Republic, Germany, India, Indonesia, China, Mexico, Poland, UAE, United States, Ukraine, Africa, ASEAN and G20 analysis completed EU, Russia, South Africa and Thailand reports in preparation October

10 REmap EU scope and timeline Project for the European Commission, in cooperation with MS Goal: advise regarding options in all sectors and their implications to meet the 27% 2030 RE target and role RE can play for decarbonisation 1 st working group meeting Brussels 20 October Prepared detailed PLEXOS model to study power sector flexibility and integration issues Detailed REmap analysis for 11 largest EU countries (70% of energy use), streamlined quickscan analysis for the remaining 17 members Belgium, Cyprus, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden, UK Calibrated Reference Case with latest PRIMES Reference Scenario 10

11 Contribution of countries to the doubling 11

12 REmap EU participation 12

13 REmap EU relevance to policy discussions Climate change is high on the agenda and EU has a central role 2017 German Presidency of the G20 focus on decarbonisation Marrakech RE day at COP22 Various other climate related discussions (eg UNFCCC) Need to understand the role of RE in view of the CO 2 commitments Currently EU not on a decarbonisation path to 2050 Many challenges to deployment of RE and EE in end-use sectors potential and cost/benefits needs to be understood better Role countries need to play toward realising the EU target unclear Need to assess cost-effectiveness of different allocation mechanisms to reach 27% and go beyond in RE share 13

14 REmap EU developments in total RE use to 2030 Reference Case: Most countries on path to reach 2020 targets (FR, IE, MT, LU, NL, UK challenging) 25% RE share in GFEC by 2030, lower than the 27% target 270 Mtoe per year gross final RE consumption High RE deployment in power sector (ETS), in end-uses (non-ets) limited deployment REmap case Up to 33% RE share by 2030 possible Additional potential in wind, solar PV, biofuels for transport and biofuels for industry Germany, France, UK and Italy half of all RE use by 2030 Only with the additional wind and solar potential, gap from 25% to 27% can be closed, but unclear whether the most cost-effective path 50% of all RE use is bioenergy 51% of all RE use is RE power, 36% heating/cooling, 13% transport 14

15 Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovak Republic Slovenia Spain Sweden UK EU-28 RE share in GFEC REmap EU country findings 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2010 Reference Case REmap 15

16 Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovak Republic Slovenia Spain Sweden UK EU-28 RE share in transport REmap EU transport 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2010 Reference Case REmap Transport RE target

17 REmap EU transport Just above 4% of the sector s energy use is biofuels today Few countries have high RE shares (eg Sweden, Finland) In REmap, 16.5% RE share possible (13.5% biofuels, 3% RE power partly from modal shift opportunities) Biofuels demand triples to 60+ billion liter per year by 2030 Challenges around realising the potential: Investments in biofuels have slowed down Lower profitability of ethanol producers in the past years Concerns on sustainability of biofuels (GHG emissions, iluc) Advanced biofuel deployment is limited, and production costs high Limited solutions for aviation and shipping 17

18 Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovak Republic Slovenia Spain Sweden UK EU-28 RE share in industry REmap EU industry 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2010 Reference Case REmap 18

19 REmap EU industry Represents 1/3 of EU s total energy demand, 20% RE share in 2014 Potential to reach 37% by 2030 (50% biofuels, 35% RE power, 15% SWH, geothermal, heat-pumps, RE-based district heat) Challenges around realising the potential: Deployment of RE in energy-intensive sectors (iron/steel, cement, aluminium, petrochemicals) is limited and technologies currently not fully commercialised Integration of heating/cooling technologies may require process modifications Maintaining cost-competitiveness is essential for the sector 19

20 Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovak Republic Slovenia Spain Sweden UK EU-28 RE share in buildings REmap EU buildings 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2010 Reference Case REmap 20

21 REmap EU buildings Represents 40% of EU s total energy demand, 32% RE share in 2014 Potential to reach 42% by 2030 Various RE technologies have potential 1/3 biofuels, 1/3 RE power, 1/3 SWH, geothermal, heat-pumps, REbased district heat Challenges around realising the potential New buildings attract more investments in RE than existing stock Renovation rates are slow Integration of heating/cooling technologies may require process modifications Cost-competitiveness is key 21

22 Emerging sectors Transport, aviation 0.4% Buildings, cooling 4% Transport, navigation 0.4% Transport, public 1% Transport, freight 6% Industry, hightemperature 9% Petroleum refineries 3% Industry, low and medium temperature 13% Non-energy use 8% Buildings, heating 23% Other sectors 2% Transport, other 7.7% Transport, rail 1% Transport, passenger road 15% Buildings, electricity 7% Some sectors fall beyond the focus of RE, representing 1/3 of EU s total energy There is a need for innovation in these applications for a decarbonisation by

23 REmap EU impacts of higher RE shares 33% RE share can save USD 2.3 bln/yr by 2030 Average annual investment needs of USD 126 billion in % reduction in energy-related carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions compared to the Reference Case by 2030 Combined with the reduced externalities from improved air quality, total savings are USD billion per year by

24 REmap EU early findings / recommendations Additional potential exists in a number of key technologies: wind, solar PV, biofuels for transport and biofuels for industry Pushing harder on wind & solar PV can yield 27% target, from 25% according to the baseline, but other cost optimal ways should be assessed 2030 target setting needs to consider the 2050 energy / climate needs Biofuels are key across all sectors, but careful allocation for most optimal and cost-effective use across and within the sectors RE deployment needs to be coupled with faster renovation rates of buildings Electric mobility and advanced biofuel deployment requires further attention Vicious circle of high costs and low deployment rates of RE in industry needs to be broken Emerging renewable energy technologies and in emerging applications need to be accelerated to realise higher RE shares in transport & industry 24

25

26 REmap engagement process Joint work of countries and IRENA Two parallel tracks: Country analysis (for all countries included) REmap comprehensive country reports (with interested countries) IRENA works with country experts to conduct analysis Approximately 1-3 man-weeks of work required by country expert Country report based on close collaboration, longer process An established REmap tool REmap country analysis yields: Technology pathways Costs, benefits, investment needs Engagement with IRENA on other programmatic activities 26

27 REmap Option substitution and costs Costs of REmap Options Costs Based on levelised cost of heat, electricity generation and transport For each REmap Option relative non-re counterpart 1. REmap Option: energy contribution of selected RE technology 2. Substitution of equivalent energy consumption from a conventional technology 27

28 Doubling the share of renewables Doubling the world s renewable energy share requires concerted action, reinforcing growth in renewables with energy efficiency and universal access 28

29 Key Action Areas Correct for market distortions to create a level playing field Introduce greater flexibility into energy systems and accommodate the variability of key renewable energy sources Develop and deploy renewable heating and cooling solutions for urban development projects and industry Promote transport based on renewable power and biofuels Ensure the sustainable, affordable and reliable supply of bioenergy feedstocks 29

30 Benefits of REmap Options Air pollution Five pollutants (SO 2, NO x, VOC, NH 3, PM 2.5 ) Indoor air pollution (traditional uses of biomass) Outdoor air pollution (power generation, transport, industry, buildings) Emissions from each sector by technology Damages of each pollutant by region based on ExternE adjusted by GDP for each country Unit external costs (USD per tonne of pollutant) Climate change For carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions only Assuming a carbon price in 2030 of USD per tonne CO 2 30

31 Savings greatly exceed costs 40% of all options identified is cost effective w/o externalities All options are cost effective if externalities are considered Optimum RE share between 30 and 36% Reducing human health damage and CO 2 emissions would save at least four times more than the cost of doubling renewable share 31

32 Employment in the renewable energy sector From 9 million today, to 24 million jobs in renewable energy in 2030 (13 million in the Reference Case) Overall energy sector employment effects are slightly positive 32