Where do we want to go?

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1 Where do we want to go? Dave Turk, Acting Director, Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks EU Talanoa Conference, 13 June 218, Brussels IEA

2 Where do we want to go? Global energy-related CO 2 emissions Gt CO Central Scenario 44% Efficiency Sustainable Development Scenario % 2% 6% 9% 2% Renewables Fuel-switching Nuclear CCS Other A wide variety of technologies are necessary to meet goals, with energy efficiency and renewables playing lead roles 2

3 Sustainable Development Scenario vs. other long-term decarbonisation scenarios Gt CO Sustainable Development Scenario Scenarios projecting a C rise in Sustainable Development Scenario is at more ambitious end of 1.7 C to 1.8 C scenarios 3

4 Mtoe SDS unabated fossil fuels make way for low-carbon energy Fossil-fuel demand Demand decline in the SDS from NPS, Oil Coal Power Industry 2 1 Gas Transport Other NPS SDS Coal Oil Gas Mtce -15 mb/d -276 bcm In the Sustainable Development Scenario, fossil fuels step back substantially as low-carbon energy takes centre stage 4

5 Tracking Clean Energy Progress 218 Power Industry Transport Buildings Renewable power Solar PV Onshore wind Offshore wind Hydropower Bioenergy Geothermal Concentrating solar power Nuclear power Natural gas-fired power Coal-fired power CCS in power Cement Chemicals Steel Aluminum Pulp and paper CCS in industry Electric vehicles International shipping Fuel economy Trucks Transport biofuels Aviation Rail Building codes Heating Cooling Lighting Appliances & equipment Data centres and networks Ocean Energy Integration Energy storage Demand response Hydrogen Smart grids Digitalization Renewable heat 5

6 Overall renewables growth is not fully on track TWh 16 Renewables generation by technology Ocean Geothermal CSP Offshore wind Bioenergy Hydropower Onshore wind Solar PV Renewables saw highest rate of generation growth among all energy sources in 217, but deployment must further speed up to meet 23 targets 6

7 TWh Net capacity additions, GW Solar PV is the only renewable technology on track 3 Solar PV generation 6 Solar PV deployment China United States India Brazil Japan EU Solar PV has shown record growth in 217; it is well on track to meet its SDS target 7

8 Net capacity additions (GW) Net capacity additions (GW) Onshore wind and hydro need more improvement Onshore wind deployment Hydropower deployment China United States India Brazil Japan EU China United States India Brazil Japan EU Onshore wind capacity additions declined by 1% in 217, marking the second year of decline; hydropower additions have also decreased for the fourth consecutive year 8

9 LED sales on track to reach 8% of total by 23 Shares of global residential lighting sales by type 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % LEDs Linear fluorescents Compact fluorescents Halogens Incandescants LEDs are on track to dominate residential lighting by around 22; 3.3 billion LEDs were installed in 217, underpinned by falling costs & government policy 9

10 Electric car stock (millions) millions EV growth has grown rapidly; strong momentum needs to continue Global electric car stock ,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1,,5, Others SDS Target United States Others United Europe States Europe China China The number of passenger electric cars on the road passed 3 million in 217, although but it needs they still to grow represent to 24 just million.3% by of 23 the global in the car SDS fleet 1

11 Industry CCUS pipeline is growing... Large-scale CO 2 capture projects 4 Large Scale CO 2 capture projects Maximum projected capacity MtCO Refining Natural gas processing Iron and steel Chemicals Biofuels The global portfolio of large-scale CCUS projects continued to expand in 217, with one additional industrial project linked to bioenergy coming into operation (in the U.S.) 11

12 but industry and fuel transformation remains way off track. Large-scale CO 2 capture projects 1 8 Large Scale CO 2 capture projects Maximum projected capacity MtCO Refining Natural gas processing Iron and steel Chemicals Biofuels SDS target CCUS is one of the few existing mitigation technology options for industry, but remains woefully off track to achieve the 23 target. 12

13 Clean energy R&D investment is finally on the rise Total public spending on clean energy technology RD&D (in billion USD) E North America Europe Asia and Oceania Rest of World Investment in clean energy R&D rose in 217, but more is needed; Mission Innovation is having an impact 13

14 IEA

15 IEA Engagement in Talanoa Dialogue 1. Timely data, rigorous analysis and real-world solutions 2. Written submission; 2 nd submission for October 218 deadline 3. Participated in Talanoa Dialogue discussions at May session in Bonn and happy to join other dialogues / events as well 2

16 Key messages IEA supports the Talanoa Dialogue through its data, analysis, and real world solutions. The Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS) defines a future energy vision that integrates climate change, energy access and air quality goals. In the SDS, energy efficiency and renewable deployment drive the vast majority of emissions reductions; fossil fuels step back as low carbon energy takes centerstage. Tracking Clean Energy Progress examines where we are compared to where we want to go, while providing guidance on how we get there. As countries develop their NDCs, short-term actions need to be guided by, and consistent with, longer-term goals of where we want to go. 11

17 Cooling is driving electricity demand growth Share of world electricity demand growth to 25 Industry 32% Other 1% Space cooling 21% Other buildings 15% Heating 7% Appliances 15% Electricity demand for air conditioning could more than triple by 25 requiring as much new electricity capacity as all of the United States, EU and Japan today but better policies could cut it in half