17th Reform Group Meeting Salzburg, August, 2012

Transcription

1 17th Reform Group Meeting Salzburg, August, 2012 Climate Policy Strategies Green Visions Renewable Energy and Climate Policy in Brazil GreenTechnology and Poverty Elimination: a Metaphysical Vision Luiz Pinguelli Rosa Director of COPPE - Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Secretary General of the Brazilian Forum on Climate Change and China Brazil Center on Climate Change and Energy Technology Innovation Tsinghua University & COPPE

2 Energy in Brazil

3 Brazil Amazon rainforest in North Region - half of the Country area Tucurui Hydro (8 GW) Belo Monte Hydro in construction (11 GW) Rio Madeira New Hydro (8 GW) Main production of ethanol Most industrialized Southeast Oil off shore production Itaipu hydro (14 GW) 30 millions of Brazilians did improve their social condition coming out from poverty to market economy in last 10 years

4 Energy in Brazil Off shore oil technology, self sufficiency in oil production (about 2Mb/d) Recent discovery of oil in very deep water by Petrobras Largest producer of ethanol from sugar cane Large hydropower interconnected system more than 80% of electric power

5 A Continental Size Electric Network SOURSE: ONS 2002 / ILUMINA

6 Light for All Program To give electricity for 12 millions 88% of them in rural areas 59% in the North Region Very bad income distribution Although 30 millions did come out from poverty in last years

7 Brazilian Comparative Advantages Brazil has great component of renewable energy in the energy matrix: Hydro + Biofuel 100,00% 90,00% 80,00% 70,00% 60,00% 50,00% 40,00% 30,00% 20,00% 10,00% 0,00% Brazil World OECD Renewable Fossil

8 BRAZILIAN ENERGY MATRIX INPUT (2009) Energy Supply Structure Wood and other biomass 10,1% Natural Gas 8,8% Other renewable sources Coal 4,8% 3,8% Uranium 1,4% Petroleum and derivatives 37,9% Hydroelectricity 15,2% Sugarcane 18,1% Source: BEN (2010). Elaboration: UNICA

9 Hydro Energy

10 Table 1 Top ten countries with largest water resources Thousands Km 3 /year M 3 /year/inhabitant* Brazil Russia Canada Indonesia China USA Peru India Congo Venezuela Source: D Áraujo 2008; FAO 2003; *per capita data is for 2001 Countries with higher hydro capacity 2005 data Installed Capacity (MW) China USA Canada Brazil Brazil is the first in water resources but not in installed capacity

11 with the highest percentage of hydropower in their electricity generation (%) Source: IEA, 2006 But Brazil is only in 5th position with about 30% Norw ay Brazil Venezuela Canada Sw eden Russia China India Japan USA Percentage of economic hydropower potential that is currently utilized in selected countries Brazil with > 80% is in second position after Norway Norway Japan Canada USA Brazil Russia India China

12 Debate on hydroelectricity in Brazil Environmental and social questions Movements against dams Pressure to abandon hydroelectricity Thermoelectric power plants / hydropower Is hydro sustainable? Energy Payback of renewable options Solar Photovoltaic Biomass Plantations Low estimate High estimate IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy, Windpower Hydropower Run-of-river Hydropower with reservoir

13 Is hydro sustainable? It is renewable Solar energy + gravity (+) There are environment impacts of dam and water reservoir ( - ) It emits GHG (-) Emissions are lower than those from fossil fuel power plant (+) There are exceptions (Balbina, Samuel very low kw/m2) (-) Run of river hydro plants have small reservoirs (+) In this case the capacity factor is lower (42% in Belo Monte) (-) Balbina = 0.1 W/m2; Belo Monte 11GW/500 km2 = 20 W/m2 Capacity factor of hydro in Brazil is 50%-55% It is in average about 25% in Spain, 35% in Switzerland, France, Japan and China, 45% in USA

14 Environment and Hydroelectric Power Reduction of Reservoir Area Run of River Hydroplant Thermoelectric complementation

15 Lack of effective diologue with the population Bad life condition in ALTAMIRA near Belo Monte can be improved Fonte: Norte Energia

16 MODEL FOR FUTURE WORKS? Concept of Hydro PLATFORM TAPAJÓS River planned hydro plant Fonte: Eletrobras

17 jan/96 jan/97 jan/98 jan/99 jan/00 jan/01 jan/02 jan/03 jan/04 jan/05 jan/06 jan/07 jan/08 jan/09 jan/10 Roberto D Araujo, COPPE UFRJ Seminar, % Nucleares 95% Térmicas Eólicas 90% 85% Hidráulicas 80%

18 Electric Generation in Brazil 2010 e 2015 ( Plan) (MW) e (%) Growth Hydro ,3% ,0% % Nuclear ,9% ,5% 0,0% Gas ,6% ,9% % Coal ,3% ,3% % Biomass ,2% ,3% % Oil ,9% ,3% % Wind 826 0,8% ,8% % Total % % % 18

19 Wind Energy and Solar PV

20 Complementarity of Biomass and Wind Energy with Hydro 2,0 SAZONALIDADES DAS FONTES 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 HIDROELÉTRICA UTE BIOMASSA EÓLICA 0,2 0,0 jan fev mar abr mai jun jul ago set out nov dez

21 Wind Energy 1 GW in GW in 2020 Estimated Potential 140 GW Present cost US$ 55 / MWh WIND Energy RESERVOIR Fonte: EPE

22 Wind Energy Industry in Brazil Wobben Enercon (Germany) S. Paulo Alstom (France) Bahia Gamesa (Spain) Bahia GE (USA) S. Paulo e Bahia Impsa (Argentina) Pernambuco e Bahia Vestas (DM) Ceará MTOI Sta Catarina / Sinovel + 3 coming from China Goudian \ Goldwin

23 Electric Generation Prices Wind Hydro Nat.gas Biom. Price U$/MWh Invest. U$/kW Capacity factor%* (*) 42% in Belo Monte Nuclear Invest. in Angra III bi US$ / 1300 MW = 4384 US$ / kw

24 250 Final Consumer - Electric Energy Prices Large Consumers have private contracts at lower prices 200 Average 200 Industrial % % Commercial Residential % % : ANEEL and Roberto d Araujo, Seminário, COPPE

25 SOLAR ENERGY EPX TAUÁ MODEL - 1 MWp

26 Biofuels

27 Technical Process: Direct Combustion BIOFUELS TECHNOLOGY IN BRAZIL Biomass: Firewood Wastes (Bagasse) Products: Fermentation: Sugar Cane Ethanol Bioconversion Anaerobic Corn, etc digestion: Wastes Biogas Chemical / Thermal Conversion Pirolisys: Wood Charcoal Gasification: Biomass Gas Esterification: Veget. Oils Biodiesel others Cracking+ Hydrogenation: Veget. Oils Diesel l Hydrolisis Biomass Ethanol 2nd Gener.

28 Ethanol in Brazil Sales of new cars 70 Decade Alcohol Program in response to Oil Shocks 1973 ethanol as additive to gasoline 1979 pure hydrated ethanol engines 80 Decade by 1985 more than 90% of new cars sales were of pure ethanol engine cars, besides the use of ethanol as additive to gasline 90 Decade - Crisis of ethanol less than 5% of new cars sales Fall of crude oil price Shortage of ethanol in Brazil Lack of government policy 2003 Renewal of ethanol High crude oil price Global warming pressure Ethanol crisis low oil price flex cars ethanol recovery

29 Ethanol in Brazil Advantage of burning sugar cane bagasse in the distillation process of ethanol, avoiding net greenhouse gas emission. In the US production of ethanol from corn, fossil fuel is used in the distillation process emitting GHG. corn ethanol avoides about 20% of GHG from gasoline sugar cane ethanol avoides 85% of GHG from gasoline

30 Emissões evitadas comparadas à gasolina (%) Fonte: Isaias Macedo e Joaquim Seabra (2008); RFS; CARB and European Directive SUGARCANE ETHANOL: GHG REDUCTIONS (SEVERAL METHODOLOGIES, COMPARED TO GASOLINE) -20% SUGARCANE ETHANOL 0% 20% 40% 60% 70% 80% 71% 61% 40% Brasil - s/ iluc EU RED - s/ iluc RFS - c/ iluc CARB - c/ iluc 100% 140% 90% UNEP Sugarcane ethanol is an advanced biofuel (first generation biofuel with a second generation performance). iluc: indirect land use change EU RED: European Renewable Energy Directive RFS: Renewable Fuels Standard CARB: California Air Resources Board

31 The issue of land use for biofuels and competittion with food in Brazil: - Sugar cane production 7 millions ha about half for sugar, so for ethanol - 4 millions ha - For comparison : Soy bean 23 millions ha The Country has: 440 Mha of forest 177 Mha of pastures for cattle 152 Mha usefull for agriculture 4/152 = 2.6% 62 Mha are used for agriculture, 90 Mha to expand agriculture without deforestation Present sugar cane plantations are not in North were there is the Amazon forest.

32 The Energy Potential of Sugar Cane Energy from 1 Metric Ton of Sugar Cane Considering Heat Values Mcal/t of cane 92 litters of ethanol (best value) kg of bagasse with 50% of humidity kg of trash with 50% of humidity 596 Source: Braunbeck, Macedo and Cortez in [Silveira, 2005] So, Sugar Cane Potential Energy > 3 X 1st Generation Ethanol Energy

33 ETHANOL AND ITS DIFFERENT GENERATIONS 1 st GENERATION ETHANOL SUGAR CANE & GRAINS/CEREALS Fuels vs Food 2 nd GENERATION ETHANOL LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS Does not compete with food production 3 rd GENERATION ETHANOL ALGAE BIOMASS Faster growth than traditional crops; Does not compete with agricultural cultures.

34 Sugarcane biomass Straw Burn will be eliminated by 2014 for flat areas suitable for mechanical harvest and by 2017 for the remaining areas Brazilian Federal law and Sao Paulo State law

35 Problems : 1- Now gasoline surpass ethanol 2 Now Brazil imports ethanol from USA (corn ethanol)

36 Biodiesel

37 Feedstocks Used for Biodiesel Production in Brazil J Most of biodiesel from soybean with Very low energy per land area 37

38 Energy of Selected Crops (GJ/ha/year) How to uderstand the use of soybean for biodiesel? Only 5% of soy bean for biodiesel marginal byproduct 38

39 Energy and Climate

40 Energy per capita in some countries Brazil has low energy per capita and low income per capita Capita Data from 1980 to 2005 Pinguelli Rosa, M. Silvia Muylaert and Christiano Pires, Renewable & Sustainable Energy, 2009

41 * Second National GHG Inventory of Brazil World Emissions Brazil GHG Emissions (CO 2e ) 2005 Data * Energy Industrial Processes Agriculture/ Livestock LULUCF Waste

42 Brazilian Commitment in 15th COP at Copenhagen December, 2009 Brazil should cut betwewen 36.1% and 38.9% of estimeted emissions in This voluntary goal (as Brazil does not belong to Annex I of Climate Convention) means a reduction of 1 billion tons of CO2.

43 Linear Growth Scenario

44 Deforestation per year

45

46 Present Situation High income classes in Brazil have high energy consumption while the majority of population is poor and has very low energy consumption. So there is strong inequality of the energy consumption and of GHG emissions per capita inside the country following the inequality in income distribution.

47 Research and Development at COPPE Science & Technology & Innovation

48 COPPE at the Campus of Federal University of Rio de Janeiro 12 graduate programs for master s and doctor s degrees Chemical Engineering Civil Engineering Electrical Engineering Mechanical Engineering Metallurgical and Materials Engineering Systems Engineering and Computer Science Nuclear Engineering Biomedical Engineering Ocean Engineering Production Engineering Transportation Engineering Energy Planning and Environment 320 full-time professors 3,000 students 350 researchers and technical/ administrative staff COPPE Technolgy Center of UFRJ Academic Excellence

49 Hydropower and Climate Change: Measurement of Greenhouse Gas Emission of Reservoirs and Model for Comparison with Thermoelectric Power Plant Project of COPPE with International Energy Agency and Ministry of Energy

50 Measurement of Emissions from Reservoirs: IVIG - COPPE Funnel Bubble Collector Coupled to a Gas Collecting Bottle

51 Among the 10 reservoirs studied, the result indicates: Hydroelectric GHG Emission Measurements by COPPE / IVIG - 97% of total installed capacity have GHG emissions per MWh lower than those from natural gas power plants, - some of them more than 100 times lower. The hydro-power plants with higher emissions per MWh have very low power density (less than 0.4 W/m2) The new plant of Belo Monte has MW 500 km W / m2

52 Research and Development Alternative Energy Sources Biodiesel Plant W Waves to

53 Research and Development Alternative Energy Sources COPPE Hydrogen bus Running in the Campus Magnetic Levitation Urban Train

54 160Ah, 3.2 VDC per element, ion-lithium traction battery bank and a homemade battery management device: hardware and software air-conditioning fuel cell system radiators four 7.2 kg H2 capacity, type-3, 350 bar, hydrogen storage cylinders high and low pressure gases system, including tubing, valves, gauges and manifolds 77.2 kwe stationary operation PEM type fuel cell with balance of plant VDC auxiliary batteries. traction inverter motor drive that operates in vector mode ultracapacitors and home made ultracapacitors management device: hardware and software electric powered pneumatic air compressor electric powered hydraulic direction pump; kwe AC squirrel gage motor type with encoder refueling system home made electronic power system and main vehicular energy control device: hardware and software UCPEV, standing for this meaning in Portuguese

55 Second Generation Ethanol Cooperation with Japan COPPE/UFRJ Rio de Janeiro Elba P. S. Bon Enzyme Technology Laboratory Chemistry Institute Federal University of Rio de Janeiro

56 BIOMASS ETHANOL - Process Overview Sugarcane biomass Harvest Pre treatment Enzymatic hydrolysis Fermentation Destilation ETHANOL Enzyme Production Trichoderma reesei RUT C30 and Aspergillus awamori

57 Cooperation COPPE - Tsinghua University Enzymatic Biodiesel Project

58 Experimental Biodiesel Plant of COPPE - IVIG Test of different row materials Test in locomotives of Vale Company (B20) With PALM OIL Visit of President Lula Decision of starting the Biodiesel National Plan

59 Wave Power Plant COPPE OCEAN LAB has developed a a new technology for the first ocean wave power plant in South America. Includes a hyperbaric chamber ( developed in COPPE to simulate high pressure marine environments in offshore oil production) water pressure equivalent to 500 m high waterfall (like Hydroelectric Power Plant) Laboratory of Ocean enginnering of COPPE in the Science Park

60 COPPE & Tractbel Wave Power Plant Pecem Port Fortaleza, Brazil

61 COPPE & Tractbel Wave Power Plant Pecem Port Fortaleza, Brazil

62 Science Park of Federal University of Rio de Janeiro COPPE Computer COPPE Ocean Lab Schlumberger COPPE Climate & Energy

63 Planned GE Lab in the New Science Park for Green Tec linked to COPPE and Center for Sustainable Development and Poverty Elimination created in the Rio+20 by UNDP and Brazilian Government 63

64 Problems and Challenges in Brazil Very large potential of oil production X alternative energy Barriers against new hydroplants is pushing thermoelectricity Sugar international market competion with ethanol corn ethanol import from USA this year Need of mechanization of sugar cane production to avoid fire for manual harvest and need of eficiency in bagasse use Need of second generation biofuels R&D Need of increasing wind energy for electricity generation price has been reduced in the last bid for electric energy Need of a national program for solar energy Soybean is not ideal row material for biodiesel Pressure in the Congress against the Forest Protection Law

65 World Problems and Challenges Green Economy + Poverty Elimination Discussed in Rio + 20: More clear meaning of Green + Economy? Developing countries increase GHG emission with the economy growth + they follow developed countries consumption pattern! High income classes in developing countries have high energy consumption + the majority of population is poor and has very low energy consumption! Can Market reduce GHG emissions + eliminate poverty? Economy Crisis + Need of More Regulation!