Operational and SO Cost Update

Transcription

1 Operational and SO Cost Update Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line. Jo Faulkner Balancing Services Manager Electricity Operational Forum October 2012

2 Changes to Scheme Methodology for Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line.

3 NGET Suggested Changes Changes to optimiser Settings Running of CHP plant Inclusion of rules to run plant needed for voltage control Correction of an error in the boundary transfer Use of Ex-Post MEL for generator availability Use of ex-post interconnector flows Changes to the modeling of a particular generator Removal of erroneous data e.g. Severn Power bid prices in April 2012 Treatment of commissioning generation Link: 3

4 Ofgem Approved Changes Changes to optimiser Settings Running of CHP plant Inclusion of rules to run plant needed for voltage control Correction of an error in the boundary transfer Use of Ex-Post MEL for generator availability Use of ex-post interconnector flows From Sept 2012 Changes to the modeling of a particular generator Removal of erroneous data e.g. Severn Power bid prices in April 2012 Treatment of commissioning generation Link: % %20Methodology%20Amendment%20Direction%20Letter.pdf 4

5 July & August Outturns Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line.

6 Total Incentivised Balancing Cost (IBC) for July Total Cost: 51m Target: 62m , Sun 02, Mon 03, Tue 04, Wed 05, Thu 06, Fri 07, Sat 08, Sun 09, Mon 10, Tue 11, Wed 12, Thu 13, Fri 14, Sat 15, Sun 16, Mon 17, Tue 18, Wed 19, Thu 20, Fri 21, Sat 22, Sun 23, Mon 24, Tue 25, Wed 26, Thu 27, Fri 28, Sat 29, Sun 30, Mon 31, Tue m IBC Daily Average Latest Cost Forecast Scheme Target Forecast Initial Forecast (Target & Cost)

7 Total Incentivised Balancing Cost (IBC) for August Total Cost: 61m Target: 80m m Wed, 01 Thu, 02 Fri, 03 Sat, 04 Sun, 05 Mon, 06 Tue, 07 Wed, 08 Thu, 09 Fri, 10 Sat, 11 Sun, 12 Mon, 13 Tue, 14 Wed, 15 Thu, 16 Fri, 17 Sat, 18 Sun, 19 Mon, 20 Tue, 21 Wed, 22 Thu, 23 Fri, 24 Sat, 25 Sun, 26 Mon, 27 Tue, 28 Wed, 29 Thu, 30 Fri, 31 IBC Daily Average Latest Cost Forecast Scheme Target Forecast Initial Forecast (Target & Cost)

8 Resulting Change in Target BSIS Scheme Profit or Loss ( m) Upside Sharing Factor: 25% Downside Sharing Factor: 25% Profit Cap: 50m Loss Floor: 50m Previous Scheme Target Value, Current Scheme Target Value, 1, Previous Cost Forecast, Current Cost Forecast, 1, Incentivised Balancing Costs ( m) Current Scheme Target Previous Scheme Target Current P/L Prev P/L 8

9 Smeaton Outage Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line.

10 Smeaton Substation Smeaton Scotland England 10

11 FMJL replacement FMJL type current transformers need to be removed from system History of disruptive failure Due to hazard, exclusion zones are in place At Smeaton these exclusion zones would prevent any entry to site unless substation shutdown 11

12 Smeaton Substation Shutdown Smeaton For the loss of this route Power flow Scotland England 12

13 Securing the outage Loss of the route through Smeaton, combined with a down rating of the Strathaven Torness route, is difficult to secure Need to secure for both export and import conditions Small margin between too much and too little generation 13

14 Mitigations NGET and SP have worked closely to mitigate the impact of the Smeaton outage Temporary circuit to supply Edinburgh Changes to work plan to allow return of through route in shortest possible time 14

15 Forecast Impact on Scheme Smeaton Outage BSIS Scheme Profit or Loss ( m) Upside Sharing Factor: 25% Downside Sharing Factor: 25% Profit Cap: 50m Loss Floor: 50m Previous Scheme Target Value, 1,422.8 Current Scheme Target Value, 1, Previous Cost Forecast, 1,540.4 Current Cost Forecast, 1, Incentivised Balancing Costs ( m) Current Scheme Target Previous Scheme Target Current P/L Prev P/L 15

16 Transmission Losses Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line.

17 Forecast Transmission Losses Projected Transmission Losses TWh TWh against 8.9TWh target, and 0.6TWh deadband, at 47.07/MWh: 2 ~ 100m 0 17 Cumulative Transmission Losses 01/04/ /06/ /08/ /10/ /12/ /02/ /04/ /06/ /08/ /10/ /12/ /02/ /04/ /06/ /08/ /10/ /12/ /02/2013 Cumulative Loss Forecast

18 Year on Year Generation Changes Changes in Generation Since Previous Year (Including Interconnectors) +ve = Increased generation Values in MWh North Scotland South Scotland NW England Teeside Aire Valley/Humberside Nwales/Mersey West Midlands East Midlands East Anglia/Tilbury Central South South Wales South West England London South East England Area July May March January-12 November September July May March January

19 Forecast Impact on Scheme Transmission Losses BSIS Scheme Profit or Loss ( m) Upside Sharing Factor: 25% Downside Sharing Factor: 25% Profit Cap: 50m Loss Floor: 50m Previous Scheme Target Value, 1,422.8 Current Scheme Target Value, 1,422.8 Previous Cost Forecast, 1, Current Cost Forecast, 1, Incentivised Balancing Costs ( m) Current Scheme Target Previous Scheme Target Current P/L Prev P/L 19

20 BSUoS 2011/12: 1.47/MWh (previous forecast 1.48/MWh 2012/13: 1.34/MWh (previous forecast 1.20/MWh) 2.50 Prior Year Value Provisional Outturn Forecast 2.00 BSUoS charge /MWh Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 20