Energiewende. Germany s energy system and the status of the energy transition. Sarina Keller. German Aerospace Center Sept 1st,

Transcription

1 Energiewende Germany s energy system and the status of the energy transition Sarina Keller German Aerospace Center Sept 1st, 2016

2 Source: Federal Government 2010, BMU/BMWi 2014, BMWi 2015, AGEE-Stat 2014, AGEB 2015, BMWi Energiewende targets Achieved Climate % greenhouse gas reduction (vs. 1990) -27% to -95 Renewable Energies Energy Efficiency % gross electricity consumption % gross final energy consumption % primary energy consumption (vs. 2008) final energy productivity (vs. 2008) building renovation % transport energy consumption (vs. 2008) 32.6% (2015) 13,7% % (2015) 1.7% p.a. ~1% p.a. 1.7% to to % p.a. ( ) doubling of renovation rate: 1% 2% p.a. The energy transition follows a transparent, long-term strategy with specific targets

3 Source: Ecofys 2016, AGEB 2015, Agora Energiewende 2016 German gross electricity production 2005 total: 622,6 TWh renewables share: 62,5 TWh 2015 Total: TWh renewables share: ~ 194 TWh Oil & Other: 0.8% Nuclear Energy: 26,2% Hard Coal: 21,5% Oil & Other: 5,8% RES: 10% Wind: 4,4% Solar: 0,2% Biomass:2,3% Nuclear Energy: 14.1% Hard Coal: 18.2% RES: 30.0% Wind: 13.3% Solar: 5.9% Lignite: 24,8% Gas:11,7% Hydro: 3,1% Lignite: 24.0% Gas: 8.8% Biomass: 6.8% Hydro:3.0% Waste: 0.9% Renewables have overtaken each conventional source to become the largest electricity source in just ten years. 3

4 Renewable Energy Sources Act Amendment 2014 More planning security Binding target corridors for RES deployment Introducing quantity control mechanisms More efficiency Focus on cost-efficient technologies More market integration Increase market integration through premium system Tendering scheme for ground-mounted PV Affordability Environmentallyfriendly energy supply More diversified distribution of costs EEG levy on self-supply Adjusted exemptions for the industry Security of supply More Europe Open auctioning scheme for European neighbours 4

5 Source: ERGO-Kommunikation, Ecofys, BMWi 2016 Cornerstones of the Renewable Energy Sources Act Guaranteed grid access for renewables; priority transmission and distribution Support payments for every kwh produced Feed-in premium (and feed-in tariffs in some cases) From 2017 on mostly based on auctions Technology specific payments, also with regard to further provisions (e.g. site and size) Renewables support costs are offset through the EEG levy; the special equalization scheme reduces the burden for energy-intensive industries Grid operators ensure grid stability independently from the public budget Expansion corridors guide growth pathway Regular monitoring and evaluation; accompanying research 5

6 Source: BNetzA 2016, BMWi 2015 Technology specific support levels as of April 2016 solar PV wind offshore* Remuneration in cent/kwh Legend: min max * The standard payment for wind onshore is 8.69 cent/kwh and for wind offshore 14.9 cent/kwh. wind onshore* geothermal 25.2 biomass landfill, sewage & mine gas hydropower cent/kwh Technology-specific payments reflect the varying cost of different types and sizes of renewables. 6

7 Jan 06 Jul 06 Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 EEG remuneration an net electricity prices [ct/kwh] Source: Ecofys based on BEetzA 2016, BMWi 2015 PV support costs have declined steadily Support levels solar energy (Cent/kWh) January 2006 Roof-top installations June 2015 < 10 kw 51,80 12,40 < 40 kw 51,80 12, ground-mounted system small roof-top system < 100 kw 2015: <500kWp 49,28 10,79 Ground-mounted systems Electricity price households (net) Electricity price industry (net) Groundmounted 40,60 8,00 0 7

8 cent/kwh Source: Ecofys 2016 based on BNetzA Auctions to replace feed-in premium based support Results of German renewables auctions pilots scheme for ground-mounted PV in April 2015: 500 MW were on offer in three separate rounds: 150 MW in 1 st and 2 nd round each, and 200 in 3 rd round Competition was high and therefore prices declined significantly. A variety of different types of actors was successful. 10 Level of feed-in premium as result of the auctions compared to the old EEG st round (pay-as-bid) 2nd and 3rd round: uniform pricing 7 Jan 2015 May 2015 Sep 2015 Jan 2016 Feed-in permium of old EEG Results of auctions in cent/kwh The auction scheme led to a further decrease in PV support levels. 8

9 An Electricity Market for Germany s Energy Transition October 2014 Broad discussion process with German and European stakeholders (Green Paper) Key question: How to help electricity market fullfil its two roles: Reserve function Dispatch function July 2015 Decision for an energy-only market 2.0 (White Paper) Further consultations in the context of the Electricity Market Platform Autumn Spring 2016 Enactment of legislation Bill for the Electricity Market Act 9

10 Key elements of the electricity market act 2016 More flexibility Ensure system security Lower carbon emissions Strengthened market mechanisms Fair competition between flexibility options Capacity reserve Grid reserve Security stand-by Monitoring of security of suppy Free price formation Strengthen incentives to uphold balancing group commitments Wider access to balancing capacity markets: more competition between power stations, consumers and storage facilities Power stations of approx. 4 GW ready to step in exceptional situations where demand cannot be met in any other way Prolonged beyond 2017 to guarantee secure grid operation and relieve congestion Winter grid reserve Old lignite-fired power stations will be placed on security stand-by and decommissioned after four years Monitoring of security of supply will no longer focus solely on national output, but also on European internal electricity market 10

11 2017 revision of the Renewable Energy Sources Act We are switching the funding for renewable energy from prices fixed by government to prices set by competitive auctions The revision is based on the following three principles: Future RES expansion will be cost-efficient All stakeholders will have a fair chance in the auctions. Stakeholder diversity will be maintained The deployment corridor for renewable energy will be adhered to From 2017, funding will be auctionedfor: onshore/offshore wind energy, photovoltaics, biomass Exempted: installations 750 kw (biomass: 150 kw) Auctions will cover 80% of newbuild 11

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13 2017 Renewable Energy Sources Act: Corridors Onshore wind energy: In 2017, 2018 and 2019, 2,800 MW and from 2020, 2,900 MW (gross) will be auctioned each year Offshore wind energy: The existing offshore targets will remain unchanged. Up to 2030, offshore wind farms will be installed with a total capacity of 15,000 MW. PV: 600 MW will be auctioned each year: ground-mounted installations, rooftop installations and installations on other physical structures, e.g. landfills. Biomass In 2017, 2018 and 2019, 150 MW will be auctioned each year, and in 2020, 2021 and 2022, 200 MW each year (gross). 13

14 Source: Ecofys 2015, based on BMWi, Fichtner et al. The Market Incentive Programme for renewable heat The Market Incentive Programme offers support through two different channels: KfW (state owned development bank) targets large industry projects BAFA (public agency) supports smaller households and SME projects The programme was amended in April 2015 The annual support volume is roughly 350 million Installed capacity supported through BAFA in MW in 2013 Biomass Solar Thermal Heat Pumps 58.2 The Market Incentive Programme incentivises additional renewable heat technology deployment. 14

15 Source: Ecofys 2015 Main federal-level energy efficiency measures taxation regulation financial incentives information & consultation Buildings Energy saving legislation KfW progammes for Buildings construction Labelling (EU Directive Fuel Economy) Products & appliances Regulation of consumption Motor vehicle taxation Energy Efficiency Labelling E-mobility strategy Ordinance Mobility and fuel National strategytop Runner Initiative Industry and business Industry and business Obligatory energy audits KfW credits and loans Energy consulting services Transport Transport Motor vehicle taxation Regulation of consumption Energy efficiency policies find a balance between consultation, information, incentives and regulation. 15

16 The Renewable Energies Heat Act (EEWärmeG) Binding measures for new buildings since 2009 Use of renewable energies Solar energy: at least 15% of energy consumption Biomass: at least 50% Biogas: at least 30% Geothermal energy: at least 50% or Substitute measures Use of industrial waste heat Combined heat and power production Efficiency measures of at least 15% above the requirements of the Energy Saving Ordinance Access to district heating Leading role of the public sector Requirements also for existing public building stock At least one measure has to be chosen for all new buildings. 16

17 Total comulative number of cars in Germany Source: Ecofys 2016 based on BMU/BMWi 2014, KBA 2015 Sustainable transport: number of vehicles and share of biofuels in the transport sector 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 chargeable hybrids electric vehicles Share of biofuels in German transport sector Total biofuel share (%) Total biofuel quota (%) The number of electric vehicles and chargeable hybrids increased significantly but the 2020 target of 1 million is still far away. 17

18 Increase market integration through premium system Market price signal reaches owners of RES, who thus react to market needs RES-E generators can create additional profit by adjustment to market prices Efficient market integration, incentives improved prognosis and balancing Feed-in Tariff level (FiT) Market Premium (paid out by TSO, average difference between market price and FiT, determined monthly) Average Market Revenues (fluctuating market price) Risk Low market price High market price Profit The market premium bears new opportunities and incentivises flexibility. 18

19 Distribution of costs EEG levy on self consumption As of August 2014, operators using part of the generated electricity directly (self consumption) have to pay 35% of the EEG levy for RE and CHP 100% of the EEG levy for electricity from other sources Small installations (<10 kw) only pay the levy for electricity going beyond 10 MWh per year the change is only applicable to new installations, not retroactively Grid fees depend on the grid connection and its usage The EEG 2014 helps to distribute the burden among more actors. 19

20 Energy pay-back time in years Source: Fraunhofer ISE 2014, Haapala, Prempreeda 2014 Energy pay-back times of PV and wind turbines in Europe PV Mono-Si 2011 PV Multi-Si 2011 PV Thin Film 2011 Wind Onshore 2014 Wind Offshore (n.y.) PV and Wind pay back the energy used in 0.4 to 3.3 years. 20

21 Source: Agora Energiewende 2015 Power generation (GW) German electricity system volatility today Winter week no. 51 (December) Summer week no. 35 (August) conventional electricity demand photovoltaic onshore / offshore wind hydro plants biomass The contribution of renewables to the electricity system varies widely depending on the season. 21

22 Power generation (GW) Source: Agora Energiewende 2015 Future: German electricity system volatility in 2022 GW Winter 2022 (November) GW Summer 2022 (August) Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun conventional onshore / electricity demand photovoltaic hydro plants offshore wind biomass By 2022 renewables can cover the total demand for certain hours e.g. over midday, but for the calm winter days conventional back-up capacity will still be needed. 22

23 million Euros [m ] Source: BMWi 2015, Bundesnetzagentur mit ACER 2015 Costs of balancing measures to ensure grid stability renewables curtailment redispatch, reactive power transmission loss balancing energy System service costs decline since 2010 due to better coordination between the four TSOs. 23

24 Source: BMU 2014 Four areas to increase flexibility 20% 35% 50% 65% 80% Share of RE Target year Grids Grid expansion Generation Flexibility (thermal and renewables) Consumption Demand response Storage Power-to-heat Batteries Pumped storage Power-to-gas Technology neutral policies foster innovation: Different flexibility measures are suitable for different challenges to the grid. 24

25 Source: Ergo Kommunikation und Ecofys 2015 im Auftrag des BMWi Combined heat and power (CHP) 40-57% 5-45 % 43-60% % % 43% HARD COAL / LIGNITE % 60% CCGT Hard coal lignite CHP is an important efficiency technology which utilises excess heat for district heating and thus reduces energy losses in power generation. 25

26 [TWh] Source: Ecofys, data from BMWi 2014, German TSOs 2014, AGEB 2015 Combined heat and power (CHP) in Germany CHP heat generation in Germany 110 CHP electricity generation in Germany 120 Year Financing CHP in Mio up to Mio. p.a. Highly efficient CHP shall make up 120 TWh of German power generation by

27 Source: Bundesrat (2015) Amendment of CHP act (2015) Key elements of the amended CHP act Change of CHP expansion target Increase of support volume to 1.5 billion Euro per year No support for auto generation CHP plants > 100 kw Surcharge for existing efficient, gas-powered CHP plants in public supply > 2 MW Support of new heat networks and heat storage The CHP amendment ensures that the highly efficient and clean technology plays an important role in Germany s energy supply. 27

28 Source: Fraunhofer ISE, Agora 2014 PV module price development past and future Investment costs for PV modules continue to decline. Cumulated Produced Capacity in GW 28

29 Source: BMWi 2014 Support in million Euros Support for energy-related research and development Nuclear Fusion Nuclear Safety and final storage Renewable Energies Energy Efficiency Energy research is a key element of the energy transition. 29