I C S G E n v i r o n m e n t a l & E c o n o m i c C o m m i t t e e 2 6 A p r i l Fraunhofer ISI

Transcription

1 ICA GLOBAL COPPER FLOW MODEL I C S G E n v i r o n m e n t a l & E c o n o m i c C o m m i t t e e 2 6 A p r i l

2 Key project data Motivation Need for dynamic model of global copper flows Access stocks-in-use and recycling rates at a global level Material flow data needed for LCI and LCA work Goal: Allow calculation of key recycling indicators at global level Recycling Input Rate Overall Recycling Efficiency Rate End of Life Recycling Efficiency Rate End of Life Collection Rate End of Life Recycling Processing Rate Project timeline (Phase I): January to September 2010 Seite 2

3 Methodology Building the model Seite 3

4 Tasks Seite 4

5 Seite 5

6 Seite 6

7 Implementation using Vensim Seite 7

8 Data and calculations Filling the model Seite 8

9 Model inputs and outputs Input Total annual semis prod. Total ref. Cu prod. Total ref. Cu use Total mining prod. Range of end-uses Lifetimes for end-use products Fabrication efficiencies: Formation of new scrap Sorting / disassembling / smelting and refining efficiency rates Factors to define different collection rates Type Data (ICSG / ICA) Data (ICSG) Data (ICSG) Data (ICSG) Data (ICA, IWCC) Assumptions, literature, survey Assumptions, literature, survey Assumptions, literature, survey Assumptions, literature, survey Output Stocks in use Annual waste flows Stocks in landfills Annual amounts of scrap Recycling input rate Collection rates (for different scrap types) Different recycling efficiency rates Flows of secondary copper Seite 9

10 Total annual copper usage Seite 10

11 Million tonnes Stock in use phase Stock Telecommunication Stock Power Utility Stock Plumbing Stock Other Transport Stock Non Electrical Industrial Stock Non Electrical Automotive Stock Electronic Stock Electrical Power Stock Electrical Industrial Stock Electrical Automotive Stock Divers 0 Seite 11

12 Million tonnes Estimating Cu contained in landfills 140 Landfill Seite 12

13 Average lifetime vs. average age (1) Seite 13

14 Average lifetime vs. average age (2) Seite 14

15 Average lifetime vs. average age (3) Seite 15

16 Million tonnes Use phase: average lifetime vs. average age Use 2010 Use 1985 Waste 2010 Telecommunication Power Utility Plumbing Other Transport Non Electrical Industrial Non Electrical Automotive Electronic Electrical Power ELectrical Industrial Electrical Automotive Diverse Cooling Consumer and general Products Communication Building Plant Seite 16

17 Waste management: Process efficiency Collection rates are calculated depending on recycling process efficiency rates and input flows of total annual semis, refined copper and mining production Collection rates are directly adapted to changes of input data Waste Type Collection Rate (current model calculated) Separating / Sorting / Disassembling Efficiency Efficiency of Smelting and Refining (metal recovery) C&D ~ WEEE ~ ELV ~ IEW ~ INEW ~ MSW ~ Seite 17

18 Indicators Using the model Seite 18

19 Defining recycling rates Primary production Secondary refined copper Total refined copper (cathode) Direct melted copper & alloy Total annual copper usage Recycling Input Rate Overall Recycling Efficiency Rate = = Landfill Scrap smelting & refining High grade copper / alloy scrap New copper scrap Production of semi-finished goods End of Life Recycling Rate = + separation / sorting rates Other recycling loops Scrap collected for recycling Production of end-use articles End of Life Collection Rate = collection rates Incineration Waste Management Total annual waste Stock: Copper in use End of Life Recycling Processing Rate = + Seite 19

20 Recycling rate Recycling input rate 75% RIR ( ) 34 3% 65% 55% 45% 35% 25% Seite 20

21 Recycling rate End-of-life collection rate 75% EoL-CR ( ) 65 5% 65% 55% 45% 35% 25% End of life collection rate Recycling input rate Seite 21

22 Recycling rate End-of-life recycling efficiency rate ( EoL RR) 75% EoL- RR ( ) 45 3% 65% 55% 45% 35% 25% End of life collection rate Recycling input rate End of life recycling rate Seite 22

23 Recycling rate Recycling indicators estimated in the model 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Overall recycling process efficiency rate Recycling process efficiency rate End of life collection rate Overall recycling efficiency rate Old scrap ratio End of life recycling rate Recycling input rate EoL Recycling input Rate Seite 23

24 Estimated recycling rates and sensitivity analysis Recycling processing rate End of life collection rate Overall recycling efficiency rate End of life recycling rate Recycling input rate 0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 Scenario lifetimes - 15% Scenario lifetimes normal Scenario lifetimes + 15% Seite 24

25 Estimating collection and recycling rates by type of scrap EOL Collection Rate EoL Recycling Proc. Rate EoL Recycling Rate Average Deviation over time Average Deviation over time Average Deviation over time C&D 72% 6% 90% 0% 64% 5% MSW 5% 2% 20% 0% 1% 0% WEEE 62% 5% 54% 0% 33% 3% ELV 90% 5% 54% 0% 49% 2% IEW 66% 6% 69% 0% 49% 4% INEW 68% 5% 74% 0% 50% 4% Best estimates calculated with average lifetimes. Average and deviation over time (std. dev.) refer to estimates for the period Seite 25

26 Summary 1. The model itself Is flexible, dynamic and includes the relevant copper flows at a global level Is based on the best available datasets at the global level Fully implements the ICA end-use datasets (semis, markets) Includes input from a global survey of ICA staff and industry contacts (cross-checking of datasets and assumptions) 2. Using the model Have access to all flows on a yearly basis Can calculate key recycling indicators at a global level Can provide estimates of recycling indicators by type of scrap Seite 26

27 ICA GLOBAL COPPER FLOW MODEL I C S G E n v i r o n m e n t a l & E c o n o m i c C o m m i t t e e 2 6 A p r i l Dr. Luis A. TERCERO ESPINOZA Head of Business Unit Systemic Risks Competence Center Sustainability and Infrastructure Systems Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI Breslauer Straße 48, Karlsruhe, Germany Tel: Fax: luis.tercero@isi.fraunhofer.de