INTEGRATIVE ASSESSMENT FROM SHOALS TO SEAS AND INTO THE FUTURE

Transcription

1 INTEGRATIVE ASSESSMENT FROM SHOALS TO SEAS AND INTO THE FUTURE From micro- to ecosystem scale: Do we know enough to make decisions? Chair: Sabine Cochrane, SALT and Jacob Carstensen, Aarhus University PRESENTORS IN BLOCK 6 (11:00 12:25) Christopher Smith, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research Next: Jesper Andersen, NIVA Denmark Water Research Jacob Carstensen, Aarhus University Laura Uusitalo, SYKE Finnish Environment Ins\tute Fuensanta Salas Herrero, Joint Research Centre European Commission Mike Ellio], University of Hull, October 2016, Brussels

2 Can Good Environmental Status (GES) for biodiversity be attained in areas affected by eutrophication? Jesper H. Andersen, Emilie Kallenbach & Ciarán Murray NIVA Denmark Water Research 2

3 Eutrophication: What is it? 3

4 Eutrophication: Where is it? Image generated by Y. Sagarminaga (AZTI) using MODIS-AQUA composite image from oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov 4

5 Biodiversity? What is it? Jesper H. Andersen Havforskermøde

6 I must find the explana\on for this phenomenon in order to truly understand Nature I must get the results published asap, shared on Twi]er, Facebook, LinkedIn in order to boost my CV, IF, a]ract a]en\on on this topic, get funding, influence policy and at some point perhaps solve the problem. 6

7 Questions What are the potential management implications of assessing biodiversity status using a multi-metric indicatorbased assessment tool? Can 'favourable biodiversity status' be attained for water bodies 'affected by eutrophiction'? 7

8 How are we answering? By analysing 3 studies where both biodiversity status and eutrophication status have been assessed 8

9 The three studies 1. National: Danish 2012 MSFD Initial Assessment (Nature Agency 2012) 2. Regional: HELCOM HOLAS 1 (HELCOM 2010) 3. Pan-European: Testing of NEAT (Uusitalo et al. 2016) 9

10 Study 1: National 10

11 Study 2: Regional 11

12 Study 3: European 12

13 Danish MSFD Initial Assessment: HEAT and BEAT in marine waters N = 22 If assessed area is eutrophied, then biodiversity is impaired Source: Nature Agency (2012) based on Andersen et al. 2012a,b Jesper H. Andersen Havforskermøde

14 Ecosystem health of the Baltic Sea: HEAT and BEAT in offshore waters N = 9 If assessed area is eutrophied, then biodiversity is impaired except for the Bothnian Sea Source: HELCOM (2010) with updates 14

15 NEAT BIO vs NEAT EUTRO N = 10; If assessed area is eutrophied, then biodiversity is impaired Source: Uusitalo et al. (2016) 15

16 BIO vs EUTRO in study 1 16

17 BIO vs. EUTRO in study 2 17

18 BIO vs EUTRO in study 3 18

19 Synthesis We have carried out a meta study based on three studies of biodiversity status and eutrophication status The three studies vary with respect to scale: one is national (Denmark), one is regional (Baltic Sea) and one is European (10 case studies) If an assessed area ( = 37) is eutrophied (non-ges), then the result of a tool-based classification of biodiversity status is also non-ges except for the Gulf of Bothnia 19

20 The answers to our questions Q2?: Apparently not Q1?: In areas affected by eutrophication, nutrients loads have to be reduced in order to attain GES for biodiversity 20

21 Thank you for your attention 21