Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of Paul Gipe and are not necessarily those of the sponsor.

Transcription

1 Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of Paul Gipe and are not necessarily those of the sponsor. Disclosure: Paul Gipe has worked with Aerovironment, ANZSES, APROMA, ASES, AusWEA, AWEA, BWEA, BWE, CanWEA, CAW, CEERT, DGW, DSF, EECA, ES&T, GEO, GPI Atlantic, IREQ, KWEA, MADE, Microsoft, ManSEA, MSU, NRCan, NRG Systems, NASA, NREL, NZWEA, ORWWG, OSEA, PG&E, SeaWest, SEI, TREC, USDOE, WAWWG, WE Energies, the Folkecenter, the Izaak Walton League, the Minnesota Project, the Sierra Club, and Zond Systems, and written for magazines in the USA, Canada, France, Denmark, and Germany.

2 Advanced Renewable Tariffs New Policy Option for North America

3 Lackawanna, New York North Americans Have Been Dabbling Around the Edges of Renewable Energy Policy Little Recognition of the Crisis Facing the Continent

4 Complacency is Not a Policy Inaction is Not an Option Skibsted Fjord, Denmark

5 Noordoost polder, the Netherlands Renewable Energy Has Come of Age

6 Montefalcone, Italy

7 Galicia, Spain

8 Freiburg, Germany

9 Jutland, Denmark Biogas Combined Heat & Power, Jutland, Denmark

10 2007 World Wind Capacity Megawatts (Thousands) Europe North America Asia Year

11 2007 World Wind Capacity 18,000 MW 57,000 MW 17,000 MW

12 Wind Growing Rapidly Germany: ~2,200 MW/yr 30,000 MW by 2012 Spain: ~1,700 MW/yr USA: ~1,800 MW/yr India: ~1,100 MW/yr Growth: 20%-40%/yr ~1% of World Supply

13 Why Wind? Reduces Use of Fossil & Nuclear Fuels Most Cost- Effective of New Renewables Relatively Benign

14 Wind is Flexible Scale Big or Small Projects Location Time Near or Far Short Lead Times Ownership Local or Absentee

15 High Penetration is Possible Percent Wind California 1.5% Germany 7% Spain 11% Denmark 23%

16 Wind Energy s Benefits Clean & Green (Mostly) No SOx, NOx, or CO2 Renewable Net Positive Energy Balance (4-6 months) Domestic: Not Subject to Embargo Does Not Consume Water Modular = Flexible... and Can be Removed

17 Wind Energy s Impacts Aesthetics or Intrusiveness Erosion & Scarring from Roads Length, Width, Number and Slope Shadow Flicker & Disco Effect Climate? Noise--They are Audible Wildlife Habitat Disruption Bird & Bat Kills: Collisions, Electrocutions

18 Solar PV Growing Rapidly 2007: 8,000 MW Worldwide 2,500+ MW/yr $20+ Billion Major Markets Germany--1,000+ MW/yr Japan--250 MW/yr Spain--350 MW/yr California--120 MW/yr Rancho Seco, Calfornia

19 Solar Photovoltaic Development Total Installed MW (Thousands) 4 3 USA Japan Germany Year

20 Renewable Tariffs & Solar Photovoltaics in Germany 4 MW Total (Thousands) 3 2 Renewable Tariffs Launched Renewable Tariffs Launched 1,000-Rooftops (2,500 x 3kW) 100,000 Rooftops Year

21 Solar PV in Germany ,000 New Systems 6 Billion Total of 450,000 Systems ~1,100 MW in 2007! Total 4,000 MW ~2%Supply in Bavaria ~1%Supply in Germany

22 German Homeowners 500 MW on Home Rooftops/yr 2,000 MW+ Total 2 TWh/yr ~ 1 Billion/yr Revenue Anyone with a Roof Can Do Solar in Germany!

23 German Farms--Solar PV Crop ~700 MW on Barn Rooftops in 2007 ~1,500 MW Total in 2007 ( 9 Billion) ~1.5 TWh/yr ( 700 Million)

24 German Granny Flat What s Wrong with This Picture? Near Freiburg, Germany

25 Schönau, Germany German Churches Protecting Creation

26 German Renewables More than Electricity Hot Water Space Heating the Hotel Victoria Has it All... from Solar Energy Freiburg, Germany

27 Germany s Renewable Tariffs The Results (2007) Renewables 14% of Supply Renewables 6% of Primary Energy 70,000 Employed in Wind Industry 40,000 Employed in PV Industry 8,000 Employed in Biogas Industry 250,000 Employed in Renewables 22 (~$30) Billion Turnover

28 Germany s Renewable Tariffs The Results (2007) 20,000 Wind Turbines Total of ~500,000 Generators! DeWind

29 Cost of German EEG Generation 60% EEG 3% Eco Tax 11% VAT 14% CHP Act 2% Concession 10%

30 German Solar PV Potential All Surfaces 40% of Supply (200 TWh/yr) Freiburg, Germany

31 North American RE Market Growth Exciting, Yes Significant, Yes Not Nearly Enough by Any Standard Buffalo Ridge, Minnesota

32 Scale Needed Electricity Only USA ~4,000 TWh/yr 50% Cut ~2,000 50% ~1,000 ~2 TWh/1000 MW = 500,000 MW of Wind Today: ~17,000 MW Goderich, Ontario

33 Electric Vehicle Charging

34 Electric Vehicle Charging

35 Scale Needed: Passenger Vehicles 5,000 B km/yr 1/3 kwh/km for EV ~1,500 TWh/yr for 50% 2 TWh/1,000 MW ~400,000 MW

36 Scale Needed: USA Only 25%-50% Electricity Supply 50% Passenger Vehicle EV ~1,000,000 MW ~100 X Today! Buffalo Ridge, Minnesota

37 Can It Be Done Here? 300,000 Heavy Trucks/yr ~1/2 MW/Truck ~150,000 MW/yr Equivalent Yes, It Can Be Done But Not At Current Pace Bowling Green, Ohio

38 We Are Capable Cleveland, Ohio of Huge National Undertakings TVA, BPA, WPA Civil Rights Anti-Smoking War

39 Swords into Wind Turbines Direct Cost of Iraq War ~$600 B Direct Purchase Cost ~15% Penetration, or Tariff Payment Cost ~20% Penetration!

40 Challenges in North America Piecemeal Approach Too Slow for Scale Needed Existing Policy Momentum RPS for Wind, Subsidies for Solar Ignorance Germany Uses RPS, Right? Ideological Market-Non Market Debate Cheap Energy Contract

41 Aggressive Targets Ferndale, Ontario Require Aggressive Measures German Renewable Energy Targets Electricity 12.5% 27% 45%

42 Why the European Success? #1 Community Involvement Germany & Denmark #2 Advanced Renewable Tariffs 18 EU Countries use Electricity Feed Laws

43 Public Acceptance Critical Acceptance Necessary For Continued Political Support As Renewables Grow Entrenched Players Threatened Organized Opposition Grows Coal & Nuclear Industry No to Windmills

44 Community Wind--The Third Way Wind Energy As If People Matter 1. Large Wind Power Plants 2. Small Wind Turbines 3. Locally-Owned Commercial Turbines WindShare Meeting, Toronto, Canada

45 Increasing Acceptance #1 Your Own Pigs Don t Stink Jutland, Denmark

46 Building Acceptance Must Share Opportunity Public Must Participate For Renewables To Reach Their Potential Schauinsland, Germany

47 What is Community Power? Local Responsible to the Community Locally Owned Cooperatives, First Nations, Farmers, Homeowners Commercial-Scale Generation Fuchskaute, Germany

48 Why Community Wind? Schleswig-Holstein, Germany Participation = Greater Acceptance Distributed = Greater Resiliency Clean & Green (Mostly) Human Scale Enables Local Ownership New Cash Crop For Farmers

49 Danish Co-ops (Vindmøllelaug or Fællesmølle) 1/4 Capacity Nationwide ~ $1.7 Billion 100,000 Households Own Shares 5% of Population Thyborøn-Harboøre Vindmøllelaug Anton Bro

50 Middelgrunden Co-op København 20 x 2 MW Off-shore 1/2 Owned by Co-op 1/2 Owned by Utility 8,500 Investors 570 per Share Visible from Christiansborg Palace Bonus a/s

51 Co-Op & Farmer-Owned Wind Farmer Co-op Corporate The Netherlands 60% 5% 35% Germany 10% 40% 50% Denmark 64% 24% 12% Great Britain 1% 1% 98% Spain 0% 0% 100% Source: Dave Toke, University of Birmingham, 2005, 2008

52 Advanced Renewable Tariffs What Are They? Feed-in Tariffs or Minimum Price Systems Political Price, Not Political Quota How Do They Work? Price Differentiation Where? Germany, France, Spain...

53 Höhe Westerwald, Germany Renewable Tariffs Setting the Stage

54 Myths to Dispel Renewables are Free Renewables are Cheap Renewables Can t Be Added Quickly Renewables Can t Make a Difference Net Metering Works Husum, Germany

55 Primary High Penetration of Renewables Quickly Secondary What are Our Goals? Equitably Distributed Ownership Rural Development Sustainable Manufacturing Distributed Generation Wieringemeer polder, the Netherlands

56 Renewable Tariffs The Philosophical Context Geothermal: Colline Metallifere, Italy

57 Do We Want Renewables? Peak Oil, Peak Gas Climate Catastrophe Europe, 2003: 52,000 Dead Public Support High at Level Not Seen in 20 Years Desire for New Jobs Pincher Creek, Alberta: Shell Gas Plant

58 If Yes, Then What Works Best? Who Gets Contracts (PPAs) Elite Few or All Who Want Them? How To Pay For Them RECs/ROCs/Green Tags Subsidies (PTC, WPPI) Advanced Renewable Tariffs Dunkerque, France

59 If We Use a Market Model, Then You Get What You Pay For If You Want It You Must Pay For It Difference Between Cost & Price Margin Determines Rate of Growth High or Premium Prices Deliver More Generation More Quickly and More Jobs Goderich, Ontario

60 Market Mechanism Status Quotas (RPS & Tendering) Typically Anglophone Countries Timid Targets Seldom Met Premium Prices (Renewable Tariffs) Typically Non-Anglophone Countries Aggressive Targets Haverigg, Cumbria, Britain

61 Evolution of Market Mechanisms ARTs Developing Momentum RPS/Quota May Have Peaked Italy, First Solar PV, Then Wind Britain--Backbench Revolt Montjoyer, France

62 Political Price-Political Quantity Market Mechanisms Price Quantity Feed-in Tariffs Political Market Quota/RPS/Tendering Market Political Both are Market Mechanisms

63 Renewable Tariff Design Simple, Comprehensible, & Transparent Priority Access & Purchase Prices Sufficient for Development Lengths Sufficient for Profitability Fair But Not Undue Profit Price Differentiation Altamont Pass, California

64 Advanced Renewable Tariffs Deliver More Capacity-- --More Quickly --More Equitably Enabling Participation --Everyone

65 Renewable Tariffs in North America.. Unthinkable? Yes--Just 4 years ago Today? No Now Possible WindShare, Toronto

66 Advanced Renewable Tariffs Endorsements David Suzuki Foundation Pembina Institute Liberal Party of Ontario NDP of Canada Greenpeace (USA & Canada) Bill McKibben, Denis Hayes, Anne Ehrlich... and many more Ferndale, Ontario

67 The Mood Has Changed Ontario Moved First Growing Trend in both USA & Canada Montfort, Wisconsin

68 Ontario s Standard Offer Program The Most Progressive Renewable Energy Policy in North America in Two Decades Goderich, Ontario

69 Ontario s Standard Offer Program 20 Year Contracts <44kV, <10 MW Wind, Solar, Hydro, Biomass Inclusive--Open to All No Program Cap

70 Ontario s Standard Offer Program Wind, Hydro, & Biomass: $0.11/kWh Hydro & Biomass Solar PV: $0.42/kWh Inflation Adjustment: 20% Term: 20 years Voreifel, Germany

71 Prices Paid for Wind Energy in Europe Feed Law-Germany Euro Cents/kWh Feed Law-France Feed Law-Spain Quota-Italy Quota-Britain Feed Law-Ontario

72 Prices Paid for Biomass in Europe Euro Cents/kWh Feed Law-Germany Feed Law-France Feed Law-France Feed Law-Spain Quota-Italy Quota-Britain Feed Law-Austria Feed Law-Ontario

73 Ontario Solar Tariff North American Comparison $ CAD/kWh Over 20 Years California Buy-Down California Solar PBI Washington State New Jersey RPS Wisconsin Ontario Solar Tariff

74 Solar PV Tariffs Worldwide Italy South Korea France Germany Czech Republic Spain Austria Ontario Washington State* California* South Australia* *Limited duration with net-metering $/kwh

75 German Solar PV Tariffs Freestanding <30 kw rooftop <100 kw rooftop >100 kw rooftop Facade <30 kw Facade <100 kw Facade >100 kw $/kwh

76 French Solar PV Tariffs Base* Building Integrated Region Rhone-Alps *Plus 50% tax credit on hardware. $/kwh

77 Grassroots Movement Has Begun Explosion of Interest Groups Active Across Canada & USA Most Within the Past 5 Months! Public Out in Front Demands Aggressive Action Tipping Point Reached?

78 Ferndale, Ontario Renewable Tariffs Are In Play British Columbia Michigan HB 5218 Illinois Minnesota & Rhode Island California--Feed-in Fever US House & US Senate

79 Machinac City, Michigan Michigan s Renewable Energy Sources Act Rapid Development Reduce Price Volatility Reduce Long-Term Prices Pay Little More Now Avoid Paying More Later Reduce CO 2 Gases Create New Jobs

80 What You Can Do Support AB 1807 Write Letters of Support Call for a Full System of Advanced Renewable Tariffs

81 Advanced Renewable Tariffs A Question of Equity Feed Laws are Fair Nearly All Can Play Farmers, Ranchers, Homeowners, & Co-ops Buffalo Ridge, MN

82 Renewable Energy... For Today and for Tomorrow Technology for Life* *from N.F.S. Grundtvig

83 Move From Nation of Consumers to Nation of Producers Lackawanna, New York

84 From Consumer Culture to Culture of Conservation --Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty Montfort, Wisconsin

85 Matane, Quebec We Need A Lot More Wind...

86 ... And A Lot More Solar Hinesburg, Vermont

87 Gaspé Peninsula, Quebec No Time for Half-Measures No Time to Lose

88 A Challenge Worthy of a Great Nation Vestas V110, Denmark

89 Renewable Tariffs-- New Policy Option for North America Manawatu Gorge, New Zealand