100% renewable electricity. Andrew Blakers Australian National University

Transcription

1 100% renewable electricity Andrew Blakers Australian National University

2 Global annual net new generation capacity PV and wind are variable

3 Sunlight in Australia Supply all of Australia s and the world s electricity

4 Most people live in the sunshine belt (+/- 30 ) 4

5 PV has rapid exponential growth

6 PV learning curve rapidly reducing prices

7 Silicon PV: 94% of PV market Source: Fraunhofer ISE

8 BOS cost-fraction 50%: premium on efficiency

9 23-25% stabilised efficiency required for competitiveness Increasing efficiency leverages the whole value chain and all by itself reduces cost from $50/MWh to $40/MWh over the 2020s

10 Efficiency leveraging Silicon PV technology in 2025 Balance of Systems = half of system costs Cell = two thirds of module cost = one third of system costs Stabilised silicon module efficiency: >20% Non-silicon PV technology Assume similar modularisation costs Assume cell cost = zero (generous!) Breakeven stabilised non-silicon cell efficiency For 30 year lifetime, 16% For 15 year lifetime, 21%

11 Worldwide market shares for PV technologies

12 PESC & PERC First 20% cell PERC

13 Key papers in PERC development First 18%, 1984: A.W. Blakers, M.A. Green, Shi Jiqun, E.M. Keller, S.R. Wenham, R.B. Godfrey, T. Szpitalak and M.R. Willison, 18% Efficient Terrestrial Si Solar Cell, EDL 5, pp First 19% 1984: M.A. Green, A.W. Blakers, Shi Jiqun, E.M. Keller and S.R. Wenham, 19.1% Efficient Silicon Solar Cell, APL Vol. 44, pp First 20%, 1986: A.W. Blakers and M.A. Green, 20% Efficient Silicon Solar Cell, APL, Vol. 48, pp PERC, 22-23%, : A.W. Blakers, A. Wang, A.M. Milne, J. Zhao, X. Dai and M.A. Green, 22.6% Efficient Silicon Solar Cells, p 801, Conf. Record, 4th International Photovoltaic Science and Engineering Conf., IREE, Sydney, Feb 1989 A.W. Blakers, A. Wang, A.M. Milne, J. Zhao and M.A. Green, 22.8% Efficient Silicon Solar Cell, APL Vol. 55, pp , 1989 A.W. Blakers, J. Zhao, A. Wang, A.M. Milne, X. Dai and M.A. Green, 23% efficient silicon solar cell, 8th PVSEC, Freiburg, September 1989 Martin A Green, Andrew W. Blakers, Jianhua Zhao, Adele M. Milne, Aihua Wang and Ximing Dai, Characterization of 23 -Percent Efficient Silicon Solar Cells, IEEE Trans-ED Vol 37, pp , 1990 PERC, 24-25%, : Jianhua Zhao, Aihua Wang and Martin A. Green, 24 5% Efficiency silicon PERT cells on MCZ substrates and 24 7% efficiency PERL cells on FZ substrates, PiP 7, , 1999

14 PERC fraction of global annual net new capacity additions PERC as a fraction of PV + wind + hydro + fossil + nuclear + other renewables

15 Stabilize 100% renewable electricity Technical diversity 90% PV and wind (+ existing hydro & biomass) Wide geographical dispersion hugely reduces required storage million km 2 High voltage interconnectors Demand management Shift loads from night to day, interruptible loads Mass storage Pumped hydro: 97% of all storage Advanced batteries often blows at night

16 High voltage DC transmission (HVDC) Storage & HVDC belong together HVDC: Transmit Gigawatts at Megavolts over thousands of km State-of-the-art: 1.1 MV, 3000 km, 12 GW, 10% loss

17 HVDC/AC backbones

18 Global energy storage Pumped hydro 180 GW 97% of all storage Lowest cost Source

19 On-river pumped hydro storage Tumut m head, 1.5 Gigawatts

20 Off-river (closed-loop) pumped hydro Tianhuangping Pumped Hydro 1.8 GW, 7 hours of storage Large head (890m) Low flood control cost

21 Found in our survey: sites, 67 TWh Requirement for 100% renewables: 20 sites, ½ TWh 3800 sites 9 TWh 1500 sites 5 TWh 1800 sites 7 TWh 185 sites ½ TWh 8600 sites 29 TWh Only the best 0.1% of the sites needed We can be very choosy in site selection 4400 sites 11 TWh 2100 sites 6 TWh

22 Araluen (near Canberra, Australia) Many upper reservoir options. Only one needed per million people. 600 metre head Google Earth synthetic image

23 23 International site search Africa

24 North America

25 Central America 25

26 26 South America

27 Europe 27

28 West Asia 28

29 South Asia

30 East Asia 30

31 South East Asia 31

32 Australasia 32

33 Supporting 100% renewable electricity Place Upper reservoir count Storage capability (TWh) Australia 22, Hawaii 8, Arizona 6,500 # 35 5 Zhejiang Province 3, Bali (Indonesia) Multiple of national requirement * * Refers to the entire country (not just the state or province) # Protected lands not yet excluded

34 PHES: water and environment - 100% renewables scenario Environment Exclude national parks Australia: 40 km 2 total reservoirs 2 m 2 per person (5 ppm of the continent) Water Water recycled; evaporation suppressors PV/wind/PHES system uses ¼ of the water used by a coal-dominated system

35 Modelling 100% renewable electricity No heroic assumptions: only use technologies in mass production (>100 GW deployment) PV, wind, pumped hydro, HVDC/AC Hourly demand, wind, sun data over many years 90% PV + wind 10% existing hydro and biomass Very widely distributed over 1 million km 2 Wide range of weather, climate, demand Pumped hydro energy storage Plus some batteries and demand management

36 Relative costs of new-build capacity in Australia in $/MWh PV wind Coal

37 Cost of balancing 100% renewables Energy cost = Generation + Balancing PV & wind: $50/MWh $25/MWh Balancing 100% renewables Cost ($/MWh) Storage (pumped hydro) 12 HVDC transmission 7 Spillage of PV/wind 6 TOTAL balancing cost 25 (on top of generation) New coal power station = $80/MWh

38 Cost of hourly balancing Cost of energy = generation + balancing Balancing cost: Storage HVDC transmission Spillage of PV/wind

39 Eliminating emissions, sector by sector Land sector & other 18% Fugitive emissions 8% Electricity 35% Industrial processes 4% Aviation & shipping 4% 55% of emissions - PV + wind - Electric vehicles - Electric heat pumps High temperature heat 11% Low temperature heat 7% Land transport 13%

40 Claimed vehicle efficiency 7 km/kwh 5 km/kwh 7 km/kwh 5 km/kwh

41 Rise of the electric vehicle (EV)

42 Electric cars - About 6km/kWh 1 kw PV panel on your house roof Produces 1,500 kwh per year Lasts 25 years (= 2 cars) Drives an electric car 9,000 km/year Costs $2,000 PV energy costs 1 cent per km

43 Large-scale PV/wind pipeline 8.5 GW RET is met: 6.4 GW Pipeline Probable Committed Completed Clean Energy Regulator data Jan 2016 Aug 2018

44 Small-scale PV pipeline: 1.6 GW per year Clean Energy Regulator data

45 Current installation rate ( ) Large scale (>100kW) PV: 4 GW Wind: 4 GW Small scale PV (rooftop): 3 GW TOTAL: 11 GW 5.5 GW per year = 225 Watts per person per year world s highest

46 What if we keep installing 5.5 GW/year?

47 Worldwide electricity supply & demand renewables pass fossils

48 Conclusions PV dominates net new generation capacity Storage + HVDC supports a secure 100% renewable grid Australia and the world on track to reach 80% renewable electricity in 2030 PV (+ wind) on track to eliminate ALL fossil fuels in % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions

49 Thank you! ARENA support gratefully acknowledged