SIMULATION FOR URBAN MOBILITY

Transcription

1 International Journal of Mechanical Engineering and Technology (IJMET) Volume 9, Issue 13, December 2018, pp , Article ID: IJMET_09_13_010 Available online at aeme.com/ijmet/issues.asp?jtype=ijmet&vtype= =9&IType=13 ISSN Print: and ISSN Online: IAEME Publication Scopus Indexed SIMULATION FOR URBAN MOBILITY E.Saraswati Ramani Assistant Professor, Amity Global Business School, Hyderabad Dr.R.Shenbagavalli Assistant Professor, inurture Education Solutions Pvt Ltd, Chennai, Dr.Madhavi Karanam Associate Professor, inurture Education Solutions Pvt Ltd, Chennai, Dr.S.Senthil Kumar Assistant Professor, Asan Memorial College of Arts and Science,,Chennai, ABSTRACT Operations Research( (O.R.) is the scientific approach to addressthe business problems. The field of operations research encompassesvariouss mathematical techniques which can deliveran optimal solution regardless of the nature of such problems or projects. The application of operations research is particularlynoticable with respect to the decision making areas which include project scheduling, forecasting, sequencing and bidding to name a few. According to O.R. Society of America Operations research is concerned with scientifically deciding how best to design and operate man, machine, and systems usually under condition requiring the allocation of resources. It srelative application ranges from day to day activities to strategic decision making. Simulation is an optimisation tool which imitates the real system. Simulation techniques are used under conditions of uncertainty where actual experimentation is not feasible. Moreover, it is the best possible technique when data is not available or when the available data is insufficient. One of the most widely used simulation techniques is the Monte Carlo technique which uses random numbers while solving real time problems. Thus, the paper uses the MonteCarlo simulation technique to forecast the future demand for metro rail in the city of Chennai and Bengaluru. It presents the forecasted average number of commuters in the year and contributes to the crucial decisions regarding expansion of corridors. Keywords: Analytical modelling. method, Mathematical model, Projection, Simulation IJMET/index.asp 91 editor@iaeme.com

2 Simulation For Urban Mobility Cite this Article: E.Saraswati Ramani, Dr.R.Shenbagavalli, Dr.Madhavi Karanam and Dr.S.Senthil Kumar, Simulation for Urban Mobility, International Journal of Mechanical Engineering and Technology, 9(13), 2018, pp INTRODUCTION India is the upcoming destination of growth for foreign investors. The median age of the Indian population is 27 years, which makes it the youngest country to have the majority of its population under earning category (indexmundi.com). This attribute has greatly accelerated the chances of the country to be placed on the world map as a prominent economic centre. But such growth is not entirely alone, it also presents several challenges. One of the major challenges is the development of infrastructure facilities such as transportation which should also fulfil the economic requirements. In order to meet this infrastructural challenge, the Indian government has categorised the cities under three tiers (Tier I, II and III). Tier I cities include the four metro cities of Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata along with two other major economic cities of Hyderabad and Bengaluru (MapsofIndia). These cities are the main economic centres, which bustle with both the local population and varied population who have migrated from the other regions. The economic growth in these centres attract population from several regions. Such regions pose a major infrastructural challenge to the government as they require affordable transportation facilities on a rapid scale to meet their growing needs. In the absence of such transportation facilities the population are often forced to opt for long distance commuting, which includes longer travel time and also pay a high fare for such commute. Thus, the need for high speed, affordable public transport system has been increasing with economic growth. The Indian government considered several modes of public transport which could deliver high speed, unhindered travelling at an optimal cost. One such mode of public transport which has proved to be highly efficient and economical in space occupancy and transporting maximum number of people at one point of time is the metro rail. The world s metro system dates back to 30 years with 169 metro projects till date(india.uipt.org). Across the globe, metro rail projects were initiated to meet the growing demand of long-distance commuters. India being no exception to such demands, the metro project was introduced by the government with thesole objective of fulfilling the growing needs of the urban population. The challenges faced during the construction phase of the metro projects across the world have been common challenges. These encompass delivery, completion schedule and funding. In India, Kolkata has the oldest metro station and Delhi the newestand mordern metro rail system ( Based on the various transportation advantages experienced by metro commuters in these cities, it was further adopted in other tier I cities of Chennai, Bengaluru and Hyderabad. The Chennai metro rail has been constructed on a multi modal network approach. The current traffic situation, congestion and absence of any mode offaster transport easily paved way for greater than before usage of metro rail in Chennai city. Chennai metro provides easy accessibility for commuters by providing walkable footpaths and cycle tracks.the other most accessed and used metro rail is Bengaluru, which currently ranks 79 th among the largest metros in terms of operating stations. It is also the 3rd longest operating metro rail network after Delhi and Hyderabad. To fulfil the objectives of efficient and economic mode of transportation, one needs to identify the probability of future travellers. Thus, there is a need to estimate the number of future commuters along with the estimated fare charts. Operation research models are prominently used for future projections. The present study uses simulation model to estimate IJMET/index.asp 92 editor@iaeme.com

3 E.Saraswati Ramani, Dr.R.Shenbagavalli, Dr.Madhavi Karanam and Dr.S.Senthil Kumar the future projections of metro rail commuters for the years 2018 to 2025 for two tier I cities of Chennai and Bengaluru. 2. METHODOLOGY 3. METRO RAIL PROJECT : CHENNAI AND BENGALURU Chennai the detroit of India is the capital city of Tamilnadu state and is the 31 st largest city of the world with a population of approximately 9 million (Demographia, 2012). The modes of transportationcurrently available in the 4 th largest city of India, include surface based rail system, metro rail, private vehicles and Road transportation system which provides connectivity between the city and suburban areas.based on an intensive project report IJMET/index.asp 93 editor@iaeme.com

4 Simulation For Urban Mobility prepared by Chennai Metro Rail Ltd (2008), six major corridors were proposed for the metro rail project. Among the six proposed, two were considered for the implementation. Corridor 1: Washermanpet to Chennai Airport Corridor 2: Chennai Central to St. Thomas Mount. These corridors connect the two most commuted points ofchennai city which is the Chennai airport and the Chennaicentral station covering about 45 kms. The corridors were proposed to be initiated in two phases. Chennai metro rail has a total of 41 stations out of which 19 are underground stations and 12 are elevated stations. The Phase I corridor was inauguratedin the year 2015 and is presently having a stretch of 35 kms, with a daily ridership of passengers. The Phase II is expected to be completed in the year 2019 with expected ridership of 7.76 lakh commuters for a 45 kms stretch of operations.phase I connects 26 stations, and has 42 vehicles (metro trains) which travel at the average speed of 35 kms per hour to the maximum of 80kms per hour. The operation time is 6:00 hrs to 22:00 hrs with a minimum fare of Rs.10 to maximum fare of Rs. 70 (chennaimetrorail.org). Bengaluru, the silicon valley of India is the capital city of Karnataka state with a population of 9 million (Demographia, 2012) and is the 33 rd largest city of the world. The available transport modes in Bengalurufor connecting city and suburban areas include the Bangalore Mass Rapid Transit Ltd., metro rail, road transport and private vehicles. The metro rail project was implemented in two phases in Bengaluru with East-West and North- South Corridors (Sekar and Karuppannan, 2012). The operation time is 5:30 hrs to 23:00 hrs with a minimum fare of Rs.10 to maximum fare of Rs SIMULATION Simulation is an optimisation tool which imitates the real system. It is a procedure that studies a real time problem by creating a model of the process involved in the problem and then, through a series of organized trial and error methods attempts to determine the best solution. At times, this tool is considered to be the most difficult and time-consuming procedure. Simulation technique is used under uncertainty where actual experimentation is not feasible. It is also the best possible technique when data is not available or when the available data is not adequate. Both quantitative and qualitative intelligence is used to build the simulation and forecast models. Human intelligence is allowed to make assumptions in simulation that can be later validated for accuracy with the outcomes. According to John Pasinski (2018), Simulation is an iterative process and we do not have to wait to start building the model for lack of complete data. Even limited data can yield a forecast to answer the business questions. Accuracy would increase over time with availability of additional data. Simulation is applied to inventory problems, queuing theory (inter-arrival of customers), in production for forecasting, scheduling, resource development and financial forecasting. Monte Carlo Simulation One of the most used simulation techniques is Monte Carlo technique which uses random numbers while solving real time problems. This technique is used to solve problems which require decision making under uncertainty and also in situations when mathematical formulation is not possible. Random numbers can be generated either by using tables or computers. IJMET/index.asp 94 editor@iaeme.com

5 E.Saraswati Ramani, Dr.R.Shenbagavalli, Dr.Madhavi Karanam and Dr.S.Senthil Kumar 5. SIMULATION AND FUTURE PROJECTIONS Table 1. Projected Average Riders for Metro Rail Chennai Year Actual Riders (Average) Probability Cumulative Probability Random Number Interval Source : CIMR and The Hindu Table 2. Projected Average Riders for Metro Rail Bengaluru Year Actual Riders (Average) Probability Cumulative Probability Random Number Interval Source : CIMR and The Hindu Table 3. Comparative Projections: Average Riders for Metro Rail Chennai and Bengaluru Year Random Numbers Expected Riders Chennai Metro Rail Random Numbers Expected Riders Bengaluru Metro Rail ,47, Source : Simulation Projections by Authors Average Number of Riders ( Chennai Metro Rail) = /8 = Average Number of Riders (Bengaluru Metro Rail) = /8 = ( approximated to ) IJMET/index.asp 95 editor@iaeme.com

6 Simulation For Urban Mobility Monte carlo simulation is used to project the future commuters of metro rail in the cities of Chennai and Bengaluru. Commuters data until the year 2017 has been collected from various secondary sources to be used as the base data for projections. The actual data is considered as frequency values to estimate the probability values as shown in table 1 and 2. Further, the random class interval and variable has been choosen to arrive at the projected values. As stated from the above tables, the average number of riders for the metro city of Chennai is approximately 18,375 and the same for the city of Bengaluru is 2,40, CONCLUSION With an increasingly growing population, metro rail projects have become the crucial choice for economical and speedy commutation in large cities to connect one end to the other with equal advantage to suburban locations. As observed in the data, there is a huge difference in the average number of commuters between Bengaluru and Chennai. One of the main reasons for such difference is the presence of metro rail system as Bengalurustarted its metro operations in the year 2011, while Chennaimetro was started only by the year Another reason for thisdifference can be attributed to the fare prices as there is a huge difference in the fares between the cities. The fares of Chennai metro are the second highest after Delhi and is not affordable for daily commuting to a sizable number of population with average incomes. As per monte carlo simulation technique, the average number of commuters for Chennai is expected to be 18,375 and for Bengaluru 2,40, The simulation techinique used for projection of commuters in the forthcoming years will contribute to the extension of more corridors in terms of kms to cover more areas. Thus, the metro rail project should not be perceived as a mere engineering solution but as a crucial mobility solution. 7. RECOMMENDATIONS Simulation techniques can be used for future projections and decisions regarding expansions based on the results of the projections where the available data is limited. Forecasted demand estimates may help decide the new stations / corridors and the stretches to be included while considering the demand during peak hours. Metrol rail being a mass mode of transportation should consider the revising their fares for increasing the number of riders. The outcome may reduce the number of private vehicles on road, making it eco friendly, with less carbon emissions and create a economical, speedier mode of transportation connecting the city and the suburban areas. REFERENCES [1] CMDA, Second Master Plan for Chennai Metropolitan Area 2026, Volume III, Sectoral Background, Chennai Metropolitan Development Authority (CMDA), Chennai, 2008, pp [2] Sekar, S. P.,Karuppannan, S., Contributions of Metro Rail Projects in the Urban Dynamics of Indian Metro Cities: Case Study of Chennai and Bangalore, ISOCARP, 2012, pp [3] Singh, M., Sarkar, D., Vara, D., Project Risk Analysis for Infrastructure Project Using Simulation Technique,IJESRT, 2018, pp [4] UITP India seminar on "Metro Rail Projects - A Future Perspective" on December 2017 in New Delhi, Delhi Metro Rail Corporation (DMRC). [5] Dr M.A.Lahori and Mohd Siham, Relevance of Ethics in Business-A Study on Public Transport System, International Journal of Management (IJM), Volume 4, Issue 2, 2013, pp , ISSN Print: , ISSN Online: IJMET/index.asp 96 editor@iaeme.com

7 E.Saraswati Ramani, Dr.R.Shenbagavalli, Dr.Madhavi Karanam and Dr.S.Senthil Kumar [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] IJMET/index.asp 97