Climate services User perspective: Central/Eastern Europe

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1 Climate services User perspective: Central/Eastern Europe Roxana Bojariu National Meteorological Administration Bucharest, Romania

2 Overview Changing users in a changing world Understanding challenges and opportunities Examples of climate products and services What could be done better References

3 Expert level Changing users in a changing world (a personal view) Worldwide, the accuracy and value of weather and climate services are rising, bringing great economic benefits. However, many national hydrometeorological services in Europe and Central Asia are in decline. (World Bank, 2008). Some improvements have been recorded since National meteorological and hydrological services (NMHSs) have to change in a global and more competitive market; Universities may find useful to add some climate-related entrepreneurship flavors to their Humboldtian background; Consultancy organizations are probably prone to absorb more climate-trained experts from universities contributing to a better work market; Decision maker level Central and local administrations (public policies) will be better monitored for informed decisions by Nongovernmental Organizations (NGOs) using climate knowledge; Companies will probably make use of the added value of local climate knowledge in their business plans hiring more climate-trained experts from universities and buying climate products and services from NMHSs, universities and consultancy organizations; NGOs representing citizens will use more and more climate knowledge in drawing attention to diverse public interests. All sorts of dystopic narratives could represent the future, too.

4 Understanding challenges and opportunities of climate change Physical and eco system changes Increase in heat wave frequency Increase in forest fires frequency Increase in river flood frequency Reduction in summer precipitation Reduction in biodiversity in the Carpathians Human system challenges Negative impact of summer thermal stress on human health (especially in cities) Changes in hydropower potential Changes in annual cycle of energy demand Reduction in potential for ski tourism in the Carpathians Reduced economic value of forest Lower adaptive capacity to climate change in agriculture Human system opportunities Lower impact of winter thermal stress on human health Lower degree heating days Larger extent of tourism in the warm season The same scenario of climate change will have different effects on agriculture in Eastern and Western Europe. The results show that if farmers in Eastern Europe have full and easy access to the adaptive capacity of Western Europe, Eastern Europe they will respond more positively to changes in climate. Sources: EEA Report No 1/2017; Vanschoenwinkel et al., 2016.

5 Examples of climate products and services Poland solar radiation climate atlas The climate atlas is the result of the joint Baltic Solar Radiation Initiative. The initiative was set up in 2014 during the EUMETSAT Climate Symposium, by enthusiastic, young scientists working at the national meteorological services of Poland (IMGW-PIB), Lithuania (LHMT), Latvia (LVĢMC) and Estonia (ESTEA). The primary objective of the initiative was to create a solar radiation climate atlas for the Baltic States and surrounding areas, based on satellite climate records provided by the CM SAF. (Polish version) (English version)

6 Examples of climate products and services Sectoral risk assessment in Romania under present climate Source: Country Report, This report was developed in the project National Risk Assessment RO RISK (co-financed under EFS through the Operational Program Administrative Capacity ) under coordination of the General Inspectorate for Emergency Situations. Future iterations of the assessment will include more risk information under climate change scenarios. A web GIS platform will contain risk information as maps, graphs etc.

7 Examples of climate products and services Transnational collaboration in the South East Europe ( ) A network for the integration of climate knowledge into policy and planning (OrientGate). The consortium consist of 19 financing partners, 11 associates and three observers, covering 13 countries, that together explored climate risks faced by coastal, rural and urban communities, contributing to a better understanding of the impacts of climate variability and climate change on water regimes, forests and agroecosystems. The project was coordinated by Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (Italy)

8 Examples of climate products and services Transnational collaboration in the South East Europe ( ) Risk maps for heat wave in Arad municipality (Western Romania) present climate. Source: Papathoma-Koehle et al., The Risk Assessment and Preparedness in the Danube macro-region (SEE Risk) project was funded by the South East Europe Transnational Cooperation Programme. The project consortium consisted of 20 project partners representing 9 countries, namely Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, Serbia, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovenia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. The consortium was coordinated by the National Directorate General for Disaster Management (NDGDM) from Hungary. One of the main aims of SEERISK was to develop and test a Common Risk Assessment Methodology for the region.

9 Examples of climate products and services Ongoing project which aims at developing climate services at catchment level

10 What could be done better Addressing climate risks in a changing world a common language for providers and users of climate services socio-economics of climate services to motivate a stronger national support for them; flexibility of institution policies towards market-related approaches.

11 What could be done better? Seasonal prediction for specific sectoral needs Under socio-economic constraints Seasonal prediction due to its probabilistic essence is feasible for users making many independent decisions over large areas (Livezey and Mayes 2006). For instance, due to land-fragmented ownership, seasonal prediction seems inappropriate for the majority of farmers in Romania (70% of farms having less than 1 ha). A similar problem seems to be present elsewhere, too (Thomas, 2006). However, this might change in future Water sector might be more feasible as seasonal prediction target. Also, heat waves in cities. We need better socio-economic assessment of sectoral users. Under potential predictability constraints North Atlantic/Arctic Oscillation in winter is the main source of predictability for temperature and precipitation in Eastern and Central Europe but with different magnitudes and associated impacts; North Atlantic Oscillation in summer could add some predictability for precipitation in Balkan Peninsula. Summer temperature over South-East Europe has also some predictability (soil moisture variability?). We need good representation of AO/NAO and land surface processes in climate models.

12 References Country Report, National Risk Assessment. EEA Report No 1/2017. Climate change impacts and vulnerabilities Fay, M.; Block, R. I.; Ebinger, J Adapting to Climate Change in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. World Bank. World Bank. License: CC BY 3.0 IGO Miranda, G. et al.,2011. Climate Change, Employment and Local Development in Poland, OECD Local Economic and Employment Development (LEED) Working Papers, 2011/22, OECD Publishing, Paris. Papathoma-Koehle, M., Promper, C., Bojariu, R., et al., A common methodology for risk assessment and mapping for south- east Europe: an application for heat wave risk in Romania. Natural Hazards Thomas, J., Property rights, land fragmentation and the emerging structure of agriculture in Central and Eastern European countries. e J A D E electronic Journal of Agricultural and Development Economics, Vol. 3, No. 2, pp Vanschoenwinkel, Janka; Mendelsohn, Robert & Van Passel, Steven,2016. Do Western and Eastern Europe have the same agricultural climate response? Taking adaptive capacity into account. Global environmental change, 41, p DOI: /j.gloenvcha World Bank, Weather and Climate Services in Europe and Central Asia: A Regional Review e-isbn: