WÄRTSILÄ ENERGY SOLUTIONS MOROCCO PLEXOS STUDY. Wärtsilä INTERNAL Morocco PLEXOS study / Jan Andersson

Transcription

1 WÄRTSILÄ ENERGY SOLUTIONS MOROCCO PLEXOS STUDY 1 Wärtsilä INTERNAL Morocco PLEXOS study / Jan Andersson

2 AGENDA 1. Outlook Renewables development 3. LNG development 4. Power system scenario

3 OUTLOOK The power demand and peak demand is expected to grow with ~6% annually until GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh 0 GWh Morocco electricity demand 2015 Annual demand Peak demand 35.8 TWh MW 2030 Annual demand Peak demand 64.5 TWh MW Source: GlobalData, ONEE 3

4 MOROCCO HAS AMBITIOUS TARGETS FOR INCREASING THE SHARE OF RENEWABLES IN THE POWER MIX UNTIL Wärtsilä INTERNAL Morocco PLEXOS study / Jan Andersson

5 OUTLOOK Forecasted capacity mix until 2030 INSTALLED CAPACITY MW Wind 10% Solar 2% INSTALLED CAPACITY MW Solar 19% ST 26% ST 37% Hydro 26% RENEWABLES 38 % Wind 19% RENEWABLES 53 % CCGT 4% ICE 2% OCGT 13% CCGT 10% Hydro 15% ICE 1% New gas fired 11% OCGT 5% Source: GlobalData, ONEE 5 Wärtsilä INTERNAL Morocco PLEXOS study / Jan Andersson

6 SOLAR Morocco is a excellent place for solar power The aim is to have installed about 4 GW solar power in 2030 The technology will be a mix of CSP and PV plants 6

7 WIND The Moroccan wind program aims for about 4 GW installed wind power in 2030 Large scale projects of which several are already online and under construction 7

8 LNG LNG terminal in Jorf Lasfar with a capacity of 5 billion Nm 3 of LNG annually Pipeline between Jorf Lasfar and Tangier, approx. 400 km Conversion of OCGT s and CCGT s to LNG operation MW new gas fired thermal capacity 8

9 SCENARIO Wärtsilä INTERNAL Morocco PLEXOS study / Jan Andersson

10 SCENARIO 2030 With increasing amount of RES flexibility is needed in the system BASE CASE All the proposed MW gas fired units to be CCGT s ALTERNATIVE CASES Replace the proposed CCGT s with increasing amounts of internal combustion engines (ICE) TARGET minimize total generation cost and manage the intermittent renewables in the grid BASE CASE ALTERNATIVE CASES 0 % ICE 20 % ICE 40 % ICE 60 % ICE 80 % ICE 100 % ICE 10 Wärtsilä INTERNAL Morocco PLEXOS study / Jan Andersson

11 SCENARIO 2030 Power plant Coal fired ST Jerada ST Jorf Lasfar ST Kenitra ST Mohammadia (Coal) ST Mohammadia (Oil) New build ST Jerada Extension New build ST Safi New build ST Nador Combined cycle gas turbines CCGT Ain Beni Mathar CCGT Tahaddart 11 Power plants included in the modelled Moroccan power system All new build assets are marked with red font New build CCGT Wärtsilä INTERNAL Installed capacity 165 MW MW 300 MW 300 MW 300 MW 318 MW MW MW 450 MW 384 MW 0 MW MW Power plant Open cycle gas turbines GT Kenitra II GT Mohammedia (Oil) GT Mohammedia TAG GT Tanger GT Tetouan GT Tit Mellil Internal combustion engines ICE Ed Dakhla ICE Tan-Tan New build ICE Laayoune New build ICE Wärtsilä Morocco PLEXOS study / Jan Andersson Installed capacity 315 MW 99 MW 300 MW 40 MW 139 MW 198 MW 38 MW 117 MW 72 MW 0 MW MW Power plant Hydro Pumped storage Reservoir Run of river New build Pumped storage New build Reservoir Renewables Solar CSP Solar PV Wind New build Solar CSP New build Solar PV New build Wind Interconnections SpainLINK SpainLINK Installed capacity 472 MW MW 98 MW 350 MW MW 180 MW 2 MW 847 MW MW MW MW 2 x 700 MW 1 x 700

12 SCENARIO 2030 Already a small amount of ICE in the Moroccan system would create savings Non-spinning reserve by ICE 4,900 BASE CASE OPTIMAL SOLUTION 350 Generation cost [MUSD] 4,400 3,900 3,400 2,900 2, , ,486 3,441 3,394 3,431 3, Annual savings [MUSD] 1, ,400 0 % ICE 100 % CCGT 20 % ICE 80 % CCGT 40 % ICE 60 % CCGT 60 % ICE 40 % CCGT 80 % ICE 20 % CCGT 100 % ICE 0 % CCGT Fuel Cost FO&M Cost VO&M Cost Start & Shutdown Cost Start Fuel Cost Emissions Cost Savings 0 12 Wärtsilä INTERNAL Morocco PLEXOS study / Jan Andersson

13 CAPACITY FACTORS 0 % ICE 60 % ICE ST 71% 77% CCGT 54% 63% OCGT 28% 19% ICE 17% 22% Solar 39% 39% Wind 44% 44% Hydro 20% 19% Capacity factors of base load ST and CCGTs are improved Expensive OCGTs are replaced by flexible engines for RES integration Engine capacity factors relatively low as the engines are providing non-spinning reserves 13

14 SCENARIO 2030 Power system reserves Assumed reserve margins: Primary: 4% Secondary raise & lower: 8 % 45,000 40,000 0 % ICE Engines are providing secondary reserve as non-spinning 45,000 40, % ICE Annual reserve provision [GWh] 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Annual reserve provision [GWh] 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 5,000 0 Primary raise Secondary lower Secondary raise 0 Primary raise Secondary lower Secondary raise ST CCGT OCGT ICE ICE - Non-spin ST CCGT OCGT ICE ICE - Non-spin 14

15 SCENARIO 2030 Fuel savings between base case and optimal case Fuel cost in billion USD 0 % 60 % Diff. ICE ICE Coal LNG HFO LFO Reduced use of LNG and oil as coal blocks can operate at higher load 2. LNG use is also reduced due to the fact that the CCGTs are operating less at low efficiency 3. Non-spinning reserves by engines is a big fuel saver 15

16 SCENARIO ,000 One week starting from Monday 22nd of July ,000 0 % ICE 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun 14, % ICE 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ST CCGT Hydro ICE Wind Solar OCGT Hydro-PS 16

17 SCENARIO ,000 Monday 22nd of July ,000 0 % ICE 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, :00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 14, % ICE 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, :00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 ST CCGT Hydro ICE Wind Solar OCGT Hydro-PS 17

18 SUMMARY Engines brings stability to the Moroccan grid Annual savings 320 MUSD Large amount of the power system reserves can be provided as non-spinning Coal blocks can operate at higher load 18

19