DOE Funded Pumped Storage Study

Transcription

1 DOE Funded Pumped Storage Study Greg Brownell Manager, Resource Planning and Commodity Budget Feb, 2016 Powering forward. Together.

2 Presentation Outline SMUD Overview DOE Funded Iowa Hill Study Overview Project Benefits Balancing Reserves and Methodology Results Conclusions October 26, 2015 Page 2

3 About SMUD The Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD) is the sixth largest publicly-owned electric utility in the U.S. SMUD is governed by a 7 member elected Board not the California PUC Annual revenues = $1.3 billion, population = 1.4 million, service area = 900 square miles Annual electricity required to meet retail load & committed wholesale sales approaches 12,000 GWh, with about 10,400 GWh of that for retail load All time peak about 3,300 MW (July 2006) SMUD is a net importer Hydro generation makes up about 29% of SMUD's annual energy needs to meet load October 26, 2015 Page 3

4 DOE Funded Pumped Storage Study Project Benefits Energy arbitrage Load Serving Capability Ancillary Services Voltage control Frequency control Regulation and Balancing for renewable resources Green house gas management Fleet optimization Hydro generation management Gas plant flexibility This Presentation focuses on regulation and balancing for renewable resources October 26, 2015 Page 4

5 Balancing reserve features Multiple reserves that are dynamic or can change with each simulation interval. The different reserves are appropriate for the different operating horizons that are done to operate the power system. The timeframes of interest in this study are day-ahead, four hour-ahead and real-time. The reserve requirements are specific to a given set of VG scenarios and evaluated for each. Factors that influence the magnitude of the reserves beyond the traditional reserve needs are geographic diversity, mix of VG technologies and size of the region that reserves are aggregated over. October 26, 2015 Page 5

6 Balancing Reserves and Regulation The procedures used to calculate reserves are based on methods developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). These methods examine three years of historical weather and its simulated impact on solar and wind generation at five minute intervals. Statistical information was used to develop persistence forecasts of the wind and solar and then compared to simulated production to characterize day-ahead, four and one hour-ahead and sub-hourly forecast errors by monthly time periods. The forecast errors were used to predict reserve needs at various timeframes. These reserve needs were simulated regionally to develop price forecasts for flex reserves and regulation. They were also simulated for the SMUD BA to evaluate the need and value of additional balancing services under various renewable build-out scenarios in the SMUD BA. Regional and SMUD BA renewable build-out scenarios include: Base Case 33% RPS High wind and high solar CA renewable mix Two 50% SMUD BA renewable mixes October 26, 2015 Page 6

7 CA 50% RPS Scenario Wind PV CSP October 26, 2015 Page 7

8 SMUD 50% RPS Scenario , ,902 CSP Sites Point Utility Scale PV Plants Point Rooftop Point Wind Plants Point , , , , , , , , , , , ,058 October 26, 2015 Page 8

9 October 26, 2015 Page 9

10 70 NP15 Energy Prices Ref Case NP15 CA High Mix NP15 Ref Case SD1 High Mix SD October 26, 2015 Page 10

11 NP15 Flex Reserve Prices Ref Case - Flex Avg High Mix - Flex Ref Case - Flex SD1 High Mix- Flex SD October 26, 2015 Page 11

12 NP15 Regulation Prices Ref Case - Reg Avg High Mix - Reg Ref Case - Reg SD1 High Mix-Reg SD October 26, 2015 Page 12

13 SMUD BA Scenarios and Market Sensitivities Two SMUD 50% renewable scenarios, Both include 50% RPS in CA Case 1 high variable generation Case 2 increased carbon free baseload generation Multiple water years and weather (temperature, wind, solar radiation) years tested 4 weather years, 5 water years spanning a wide range of conditions Market scenario and cases Market price and AS sales amounts Hour ahead market availability Additional cases Very low carbon (retire most thermal units) & high balancing reserve requirement scenarios October 26, 2015 Page 13

14 Variable Generation Cases Cases 1 RPS 2 Internal Solar Existing System 3 20% 1A 50% 100 MW FIT, 55 MW SB1 600 MW FIT, SB1,Utility scale 1B 50% 600 MW 2A 50% 300 MW FIT, SB1,Utility scale External Solar MW (three CAISO) 275 MW (three CAISO) 0 Wind (External) 230 MW Solano Area Baseload Renewables 114 MW Biogas, 30 MW Geo Internal or All Balance Burden All 360 MW Solano area 329 MW Internal 360 MW 329 MW All 360 MW Solano area 482 MW Internal 2B 50% 300 MW MW 482 MW All 1. Includes existing resources 300 MW of wind in Solano, 250 MW biomass and biogas, 30MW N. Nevada geothermal, 40 MW small hydro, 155 MW solar. 2. RPS standard may remain at 33%, however these cases represent alternatives to reach SD9 goals. Additional 45 MW SB1, up to 400 MW additional unidentified local solar and 275 MW external solar, 50 MW Collinsville/Roberts wind, up to 200 additional external base load geothermal, biogas or biomass. 3. Existing system study performed by GP&O and R&D. October 26, 2015 Page 14

15 MW System Balancing Capacity Needs Total Need Including Existing Reg + Flex Up/Dn J F M A M J J A S O N a 2a 1a 2a 1a 2a 1a 2a 1a 2a 1a 2a 1a 2a 1a 2a 1a 2a 1a 2a 1a 2a 1a 2a % Excedence (need) 95% Excedence (need) 99% Excedence (need) 100% Excedence (need) (MW) Dist Solar Case1 600 Case2 300 October 26, 2015 Page 15

16 Conclusions and Recommendations Geographic diversity of Variable Resources important All in one location would be much worse SMUD portfolio meets balancing needs for many years ahead Don t do this kind of study often Computer resources needed were unprecedented 8 months of cpu time BANC is currently studying the benefits and potential risks of the EIM market Ability to market balancing services and defer future balancing capacity investments Implementation and operational costs and allocations. Participation duration commitments Implications on NERC reliability performance requirements October 26, 2015 Page 16