Challenges for Japan s Energy Transition. Embassy of Japan in France Minister, Toshihiko Horiuchi

Transcription

1 Challenges for Japan s Energy Transition Embassy of Japan in France Minister, Toshihiko Horiuchi

2 Contents Ⅰ.Challenges for Japan s Energy Transition 1. The history of energy choice &5 th enegry choice 2. Change in generation mix 3. Stategic Energy Plan and Energy mix plan Ⅱ.Basic Hydrogen Strategy 1. Misson/Background 2. Why Hydrogen 3. Strategy 4. Ongoing Projects 5. Hydrogen Energy Ministerial Meeting

3 The history of energy choice & the 5 th energy choice 1 st Choice 2 nd Choice 3 rd Choice 4 th Choice 5 th Choice The oil revolution & oil shift (1960s) Moving from domestically sourced coal to oil The oil shock & move away from oil (1970s) LNG, Nuclear, Coal New energy, Energy conservation Sunshine project Moonlight project The Kyoto Protocol & move to low carbon (1990s) Kyoto Protocol (1997) Shift to nuclear power & natural gas The Great East Japan Earthquake & Fukushima Daiichi Accident (2011 onwards) The value of safety Shale gas revolution Renewable energy appears as an option The 50 year goal of the Paris Agreement (2030s onwards) Energy transition & decarbonization 1960s- 1970s- 1990s s- 1

4 Change in generation mix Nuclear has been rapidly replaced by fossil fuels since the Great East Japan Earthquake and the nuclear accident in March 2011 Trend in domestic power generation by technology (TWh) 21, , Renewables (excluding hydro) Hydro 水力計石炭 Coal LNG 石油等 Oil, etc 原子力 Nuclear 新エネ等 Power generation ratio (%) % 2% 7% 29% 2% 2% 7% 18% 9% 29% 42% 42% 25% 28% 32% Renewables (excl. hydro) Nuclear Oil LNG Coal 0 9% 8% 8% Hydro (Source: Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, METI) the Great East Japan Earthquake 2

5 Strategic Energy Plan and Energy mix plan FY2002 Basic Act on Energy Policy The 1 st Strategic Energy Plan, 2003 The 2 nd Strategic Energy Plan, 2007 The 3 rd Strategic Energy Plan, 2010 FY2014 FY2015 FY2018 The 4 th Strategic Energy Plan Nuclear power: To reduce as much as possible and restart with safety priority. Renewable energy: >20% Long-term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook (Energy mix plan) Nuclear power: 20-22%(Before the earthquake: 30%) Renewable energy: 22-24% The 5 th Strategic Energy Plan Towards 2030 To achieve energy mix target Towards 2050 Challenges towards energy transitions and decarbonisation 3

6 Safety Safety is the top priority. Japan s Strategic Energy Plan Based on the Strategic Energy Plan, Japan tackles the policy targets related to Safety, Energy security, Economic efficiency, and Environment simultaneously.(3e+s) The Plan also refers reducing dependence on nuclear power generation as much as possible by promoting energy efficiency and conservation, introduction of renewable energy, and introduction of efficient thermal power plants. <Policy target for 3E+S> Energy security Self-sufficiency: About 25%, higher than before the earthquake (about 20%) Economic efficiency Electricity cost: To lower from the current level (9.7 trillion yen in FY2013 to 9.5 trillion yen in FY2030) Environment Greenhouse gas emission reduction target: (reduction of 26.0% in FY 2030 compared to FY 2013) 4

7 Renewables introduction toward 2030 target 5 Before FIT (June 2012) After FIT [A] (as of Sep 2017) Target [B] (FY2030) Progress [A]/[B] Geothermal 0.5GW 0.5GW GW 33% Biomass 2.3GW 3.5GW GW 53% Wind 2.6GW 3.4GW 10GW 34% Solar PV 5.6GW 42.4GW 64GW 66% Hydro 48.1GW 48.4GW GW 99%

8 Mainstreaming of renewable energy based on Fukushima accident Priority on energy technology 2Orient 2030 Single target 1Plan 2Do 2018 Ambitious Multi-Path Scenario 3Check 2050 towards multiple goals 1 Observe 3Decide 4 Act Basic Energy Plan 3 year outlook 4Action 2030 Ambitious vision (Goal): Seek to surpass lowcarbon and achieve decarbonization Peak Base Domestic renewables + Storage batteries Renewables with thermal backup (lower costs) 22~24% Domestic renewables + Hydrogen H 2 Thermal (achieve high efficiency) 56% Overseas renewables + Hydrogen H 2 H 2 Nuclear (restarts with priority on safety) 22~20% Overseas Fossil fuel with CCS + Hydrogen CO2-26% 44% zero-emission power Improve energy efficiency by 30% Maximum introduction renewables + (Thermal) Nextgeneration nuclear (safety, etc.) 6

9 Towards 2050: Challenges towards energy transitions and decarbonisation Advanced utilization of existing technology Creation of future technology Renewable Energy Cost reduction Overcome system Future energy technology Space Solar power Supercritical Geothermal (Magma Power Generation) Coating PV + Next Generation Storage / Supply and Demand Automatic Control System Fossil fuels High-efficiency power generation CO2-free by using hydrogen Manufacturing: Super efficient hydrogen production Transportation: liquefaction / transportation of hydrogen Utilization: 100% hydrogen power generation, Next Generation Fuel Cell (FCV, etc) Fixing / Utilization of Carbon Dioxide CO2 utilization Innovative CO2 separation and recovery technology Heat & Transportation Distributed energy Industry Investment in high efficiency equipment Transportation Improve fuel consumption of automobile ZEB/ZEH Cogeneration system VPP Innovation of Manufacturing process Hydrogen reduction steelmaking Artificial photosynthesis Automotive electric : Automation EV, PHV, FCV Automatic Distributed and digitized technology <Next Generation Storage Battery> Post lithium Innovation for stationary type battery <Automatic energy supply and demand control system> AI-driven system Block-chain technology 7

10 - Basic Hydrogen Strategy -

11 Mission/ Background Japan s Responsibility for Energy Transition Energy trilemma Energy security Environment (Sustainability) 3 E + Safety Economic affordability (Cost) Japan s Primary Energy (FY2016) Measures; Energy saving Renewable energy Nuclear energy CCS + Fossil fuels Hydrogen Nuclear Imported Fossil Fuel <90% Hydro Gas (27%) Coal (27%) Renewables Oil (40%) 8

12 Power supply & demand, GW Why Hydrogen? Contribution to 3 E Contribute de-carbonization (Environment) Mitigate dependence on specific countries (Energy security) Enable to utilize low cost feedstock (Economic affordability) + Japan s edge in technology since 1970s Roles of H 2 in Electrified Mobility/ Generation Mix Powertrain Costs Analysis for FCEVs & BEVs Power Supply & Demand Simulation for Germany in 2050 Source: Hydrogen Scaling Up, Hydrogen Council (2017) Source: How Hydrogen Empowers the Energy Transition, Hydrogen Council (2017) 9

13 Strategy Basic Hydrogen Strategy (Prime Minister Abe s Initiative) World s first national strategy 2050 Vision: position H 2 as a new energy option (following Renewables) Target: make H 2 affordable ($3/kg by 2030 $2/kg by 2050) 3 conditions for realizing affordable hydrogen Supply Demand 1 Inexpensive feedstock (unused resources, renewables) 2 Large scale H 2 supply chains 3 Mass usage (Mobility Power Generation Industry) Key Technologies to be Developed Production Transportation Use Electrolysis System Gasification + CCS Energy Carrier (LH 2, MCH, NH 3, etc.) Fuel Cells (Mobility, Generation) H 2 -fired Generation 10

14 Direction of Activities to Realize a Hydrogen Society Production Domestic fossil fuels City gas LP gas Byproduct hydrogen Overseas unused energy Brown coal Byproduct hydrogen Overseas renewable energy Renewable energy Solar power Wind power Future Gasification Reforming Water electrolysis Water electrolysis *Use hydrogen as a means of energy storage (absorb fluctuations in intermittent RES) CCS Demonstration of largescale for use in the 2020 Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games Transportation and supply (supply chain) City gas pipeline/lpg supply network Liquefied hydrogen lorry Hydrogen pipeline Installation of 100 stations nationwide Promotion of regulatory reform for cost reduction Hydrogen station Demonstration of the world s first international hydrogen supply chain in 2020 Large-scale hydrogen ocean Transportation network 2,500 vehicles installed 40,000 vehicles by 2020 Use Fuel cell vehicles (FCV, FC bus, etc.) Over 230,000 units installed Reforming Entered service in Tokyo in March buses by 2020 Fuel cell cogeneration (e.g. Ene-Farm) Future Hydrogen power generation (CO 2 -free thermal power plants) Use in the industrial sector (Power-to-X) Transportation For Business and Industry use, some models have already been launched in 2017 Power generation Combined heat and power supply using hydrogen cogeneration in Kobe in early 2018 Other 11

15 Scenario Current Supply Domestic H 2 (RD&D) International H 2 Supply Chains Domestic Power-to-gas CO 2 -free H 2 Volume (t/y) 200 4k 300k 5~10m Cost ($/kg) ~ Demand Generation Mobility Large Power Plant (RD&D) 1GW 15~30GW FC CHP* 230k 1.4m 5.3m *Primary energy: natural gas. HRS FCV FC Bus FC FL (900) 2.5k 40k 200k 800k k k Replace Old Systems Replace Filling Stations Replace Conventional Mobility Industry Use (RD&D) Expand H 2 Use 12

16 Ongoing Projects (Supply-side) International H 2 Supply Chain Power-to-gas Japan-Australia Pilot Project Japan-Brunai Pilot Project Fukushima Renewable H 2 Project 2020~ 2020~ 2020~ Brown Coal +CCS Off-gas Gasification Liquefied H 2 Carrier* Steam Methane Reforming Hydrogenation* (TOL MCH) Chemical Tanker Power-to-Gas Plant* Electrolysis System (Alkaline) Fukushima Loading Facility* * Image Dehydrogenation* (MCH TOL) H 2 Olympic Flame Tokyo 13

17 Ongoing Projects (Demand-side) H 2 Station Network 2013~ H 2 Mobility H 2 Applications 2016~ H 2 Power Generation H 2 Co-generation Demonstration Project *101 Stations by April in 2020 FC Bus Hydrogen Gas Turbine (1.7MW) FC Truck Demo 2018~ Joint Venture for H 2 Infrastructure Development R&D of H 2 Burner Systems 2018~ For Power Generation <500MW Burning Simulation (H 2 + CH 4 ) 14

18 Hydrogen Energy Ministerial Meeting Purpose Realize hydrogen as key technology and to be a new energy alternative for de-carbonization by connecting resources such as fossil fuel and Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage(CCUS), or renewable energy Harmonize and cooperate for enhancing utilization of hydrogen at a global scale Verify and Discuss on Innovative challenges and latest knowledge Possibility of international cooperation Future direction for formulating global initiative on hydrogen Date: 23 rd October 2018 Venue: DAI-ICHI HOTEL TOKYO, Japan Host: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan Attendees : Ministers, Government officials, Private Sectors Invited Countries: Australia, Austria, Brazil, Brunei, Canada, China, Chile, Denmark, France, Germany, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Italy, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, United States of America, EC, IEA (29 countries, 1 region, and 1 organization) 15