Millennium Development Goals and Post-2015 Development Framework

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1 FOI Information for release Relevant extracts from documents as follows: Document March 2013 Re: Briefing: Mr Simmonds meeting with Stop the Climate Chaos Coalition on 26 March As I mentioned earlier today, SCC ed me last week when I was on leave with an updated list of agenda items for tomorrow s meeting with the Minister, which differs somewhat from what they had told me previously. Their proposed agenda is: 1. Links between domestic policy and international leadership on Climate Change and attracting international investment. 2. Working towards a 2015 global framework : a) 2015 UNFCCC deal and b) Post 2015 Development Framework 3. EU Climate Policy: a) Climate and Energy package and b) Role of MEPs The one item which was not in any way reflected in the briefing submitted last week is Millennium Development Goals and Post 2015 Development Framework. Please find attached background and lines on this, which amounts to previous briefing prepared for the Minister in December combined with an update from Cabinet office. Copying to who I understand leads on this in the FCO. Also attached is note Climate Change: The State we re in, which is useful; background, particularly for questions relating to the 2 degrees target. Document 2 MDG brief SUBJECT: MEETING WITH STOP CLIMATE CHAOS COALITION MEMBERS 26 MARCH 2013 ANNEX: Millennium Development Goals and Post-2015 Development Framework POINTS TO MAKE

2 [If asked] The Millennium Development Goals are at the heart of our development work, setting the benchmark for global development policy and galvanising efforts to improve the lives of millions of the world s poorest people over the last decade. When the framework expires in 2015 there will still be millions of people around the world living in extreme poverty. It is crucial that any successor framework continues to build on the success of the MDGs, and learns from the lessons. The UK is doing all it can to support the UN process on a successor framework. The Prime Minister is delighted to be co-chairing the UN Secretary General s High Level Panel on post-mdgs. We agree with the UN Secretary General that the output needs to be a single post-2015 development framework. We need to ensure that the High Level Panel s work and that of the Open Working Group on Sustainable Development Goals are coherent and closely coordinated. It is in no-one s interests to have competing development frameworks. Millennium Development Goals and Post-2015 Development Framework 1. WWF is working with the Cabinet Office through Beyond 2015, a coalition of NGOs working on the post-2015 development agenda which includes the possible Sustainable Development Goals. 2. The PM co-chairs the UN Secretary General s High Level Panel (HLP) which will make recommendations regarding the vision and shape of a Post-2015 development agenda that will help respond to the global challenges of the 21 st century, building upon the MDGs and with a view to ending poverty. The Panel will report to the Secretary General by June The other co-chairs are Indonesian President Yudhoyono and Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf. The 26 panellists include ministers, business leaders and representatives from civil society. 3. The Panel meeting in London in November 2012 focused on issues affecting individual citizens and households, such as education, health, jobs and livelihoods. The London meetings were high-energy, frank and productive. There was agreement that a new development framework when the MDGs expire should be ambitious and practical. There was also strong interest in a vision centred on ending poverty in our time while putting in place the building blocks of sustained prosperity, including job-creating growth, environmental sustainability, peace, and justice 4. The second meeting, in Liberia in February 2013, was important to meeting some key objectives. Its communique set out a vision to end poverty in our time and put in place the building blocks of sustained prosperity through a people centred but planet sensitive agenda. The Panel is agreed on the need for one single development agenda post-2015 bringing together poverty and environment concerns (one of the NGO lobby s principle concerns).

3 5. This week s meeting of the High Level Panel in Bali takes place as the Panel enters its final phase of work and is the last meeting before the Secretariat gets down to serious drafting. The global partnerships and means of implementation theme for Bali covers a vast territory (finance, trade, climate change, technology, the role of business, statistics ). There is a limit to the substantive contribution that the Panel can, or should, make on many of these issues. However, it is essential that the Panel does make strong, positive proposals on these issues as a stronger successor to MDG8 is critical to a UN deal on the next set of goals. Wider UN process on post Rio+20 established a separate UN intergovernmental working group to design Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to be proposed to the UN General Assembly (UNGA). The working group will involve 30 member states and report to the UNGA by September The group must be coordinated and coherent with the post-2015 process. The SDGs working group and the High Level Panel will have overlapping remits. The High Level Panel has been asked to include sustainability as a core dimension and to say how SDGs should relate to the post-2015 framework. On the other hand it is likely that the SDG working group will also discuss development themes like education and health. Document 3 background To From 4 March 2013 CLIMATE CHANGE: THE STATE WE RE IN The Government s Chief Scientific Adviser has written to the PM to assess the latest evidence on global warming and emissions (attached). A good moment to take stock of the key trends and their implications for the FCO s climate diplomacy Detail 1. Sir John Beddington s letter to the PM makes five main points: (i) Global warming hasn t stopped: recent claims that it has are based on a flawed reading of global temperature trends. It s true that the Met Office is forecasting a slower rate of increase over the next five years. But it is still predicting near-record global temperatures and the underlying trend is clear: each of the last three decades has been warmer than the last and 10 of the warmest years on record have occurred since 2000;

4 (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) Climate patterns and extremes are changing faster than average global temperatures. The Arctic is warming 2-3 times faster than the rest of the world. The US, China, Pakistan, Australia and Russia have all seen recordbreaking weather events in recent years. Closer to home, the UK was hit last year by drought followed by record-breaking rainfall. This is consistent with the prediction that a warming world means rain falling in more intense bursts; Nothing can credibly explain what we re seeing other than man-made emissions. Last year a leading group of sceptical scientists (the Berkeley Project) subjected global temperature records to the most rigorous analysis to date. They were unable to draw any other conclusion than the world is warming and that human greenhouse gas emissions are the cause. In other words, the state we re in cannot be explained by sunspots, natural cycles or scientific groupthink; Climate change is not merely a developing world issue. There is a clear and present danger to the UK. A significant proportion of the top risks in the National Risk Register are weather related. The UK is exposed to the social, economic and security impacts of what happens in other parts of the word. Lloyds of London are expecting to face claims of up to $2.5bn linked to Hurricane Sandy. UK food prices have been pushed up by droughts in the US Midwest and elsewhere; Limiting warming to the internationally agreed target of 2 degrees is becoming increasingly difficult. Global emissions are rising faster now than 20 years ago. Continuing on this path would lead to around 5 degrees of warming before the end of the century. The longer the world allows emissions to rise, the more rapidly they ll need to fall afterwards if 2 degrees is to be achieved. Geoengineering (e.g. mirrors in space, artificial trees, cloud seeding) will not provide a sustainable solution. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FCO AND CLIMATE DIPLOMACY 2. In 2010 the Foreign Secretary delivered a speech arguing that a successful response to climate change should be a central objective of British foreign policy. Developments since then have underlined both the urgency of the need for global action and the enormity of the challenge the world faces in achieving a shift from fossil fuels. Two calculations in particular throw this into sharp relief: one by the IEA suggesting that on current investment trends we will be locked in to more than 2 degrees by 2017; and a second (by financial analysts) suggesting that achieving 2 degrees will require 80% of proven fossil fuel reserves - worth around $20tr at today s prices - to be left in the ground. 3. Inevitably this leads some to question whether 2 degrees is in fact achievable. While a future debate on this may be inescapable, for now there are good arguments for sticking with the target. Scientifically, stepping back from it would be hard to justify: the chances of passing critical tipping points increase at higher temperatures.

5 Politically, it would risk driving a wedge between developed countries and developing countries, many of which continue to push for 1.5 degrees: prospects for a 2015 global climate agreement would plummet. Economically, it would hit investment in clean energy, adding to existing policy uncertainties and disadvantaging countries with strong green growth potential like the UK. 4. It is also worth noting that the wider picture on global climate action is not as negative as the emissions numbers suggest. A recent study the FCO helped fund looked at 33 countries and found that 18 had made substantial progress towards climate legislation in the past year, spurred in many cases by UK engagement. The prospect of a global agreement in 2015 remains in play. Global investment in clean energy is increasing. Global efforts on energy efficiency and Carbon Capture and Storage would if they could be accelerated go a long way to making 2 degrees achievable. Moreover, high level political interest in climate change is beginning to revive. It was a big theme both in Obama s inaugural address and at Davos, where rising greenhouse gas emissions were named the third most prevalent global risk after severe income disparity and chronic fiscal imbalances. NEXT STEPS 5. The arrival of a new Special Representative for Climate Change and a new FCO Chief Scientific Adviser creates an opportunity to refresh our climate diplomacy to ensure it remains effective and credible in the context of global developments. To that end we are developing a new joint strategy with DECC outlining the approach we intend to take between now and We will submit this to Ministers when it is finalised. Early underlying thoughts are that we should: - Focus on practical policy cooperation and dialogue capable of shifting political and economic opinion in capitals; - Integrate climate diplomacy more closely with work on energy security and emerging global concerns about resource and commodity scarcities; - Promote the full range of zero (and negative) cost options for tackling emissions, and the economic benefits of low-carbon investment; - Develop (and make use of) stronger links on climate, energy and resource security issues with the UK and global business community. 6. Once it is agreed, the new strategy might be a good peg for a FS letter to the PM outlining recent achievements in climate diplomacy and our plans for the future. We would welcome feedback on this and other points raised above.