Webinar European Environment Agency January 21, Decoupling economic well-being from resource consumption. Outreach to policy makers

Transcription

1 Webinar European Environment Agency January 21, 2015 Decoupling economic well-being from resource consumption. Outreach to policy makers

2 The classical origin of the decoupling idea: The Kuznets-curve of local pollution. Local pollution rich and dirty Decoupling prosperity from dirt Poor and clean rich and clean! Time and prosperity

3 But why decoupling of prosperity from resource use? Because it reduces import dependency. Europe (EU 27) is 100% import dependent for several metals! Source: SOER 2010, EEA, p.7

4 But there are also ecological reasons. Resource use causes big ecological footprints. The world cannot afford US-American size footprints. Seven billion people with US footprints would need five Planets Earth!!

5 Sustainable Development requires massive decoupling of well-being from resource consumption (from ecological footprints)!

6 Only one country is sustainable. The rich have too large footprints, the poor are too poor! (picture is a bit outdated) Source: Global Footprints Network Cuba

7 Our first (2011) Decoupling Report showed that decoupling is hardly happening

8 The richer the more resource consumption

9 Absolute decoupling means a real reduction of resource consumption while the GDP may grow further. GDP and Size resource (Indexed) consumption GDP 100 Absolute Decoupling Resource consumption Environmental Pressure Figure 2.2 time

10 Relative decoupling is what happens in all countries: a little less growth of resource use than of GDP Size GDP and resource consumption (Indexed) GDP Relative Decoupling Resource consumption Environmental Pressure 100 Absolute Decoupling Resource consumption Environmental Pressure Figure 2.2 time

11 distinguishes between 1. Decoupling by maturation (overcoming initial clumsiness, saturating infrastructures) 2. Decoupling by trade (problem shifting) 3. Decoupling by intentional increase of resource productivity Relative decoupling Absolute decoupling

12 A fivefold increase of resource productivity could re-populate the sustainability rectangle! Ecological footprints (hectares) High HDI 4 2 Small ecol. footprints The sustainability rectangle HDI

13 If limited resources are a problem (they are!), we should create a Kuznets Curve of dematerialization! Source: Steinberger et al, 2010 GDP per capita

14 and encourage and assist developing countries tunneling through Source: Steinberger et al, 2010 GDP per capita

15 Likewise: If CO2 emissions are a problem, (they are!) then we need a Kuznets Curves of decarbonization! rich and carbon free

16 and induce poorer countries tunneling through! rich and carbon free

17 Ambitious efficiency increases means a Green Kondratiev Cycle, after five brown Cycles. TV, aviation, computers, Biotech IT Resource productivity, renew. Energy. Circular economy Electricity, chemicals,cars Steel & railroads Mechanization

18 People tend to believe that this is just a utopian dream. Well, let us then look at a suprising fact from physics

19 Imagine a bucket of water of 10 kg weight How many kilowatthours do you need to lift it from sea level to the top of Mount Everest?

20 1 kwh The answer is stunning: One quarter of a kilowatthour! (knowing that one wattsecond is one Joule or one Newton-meter; ¼ kwh is watt-seconds)

21 We can prove that a five-fold increase in resource productivity is technologically available.

22 Let us run through some Factor Five examples. Volkswagen s concept car XL1 is five times more fuel efficient than today s fleet Today s fleet 5-10 l/100km Volkswagen XL1 0.9 l/100km Energy efficiency

23 Passive houses : a factor of ten more heat efficient

24 LED replacing incandescent bulbs: a factor of 10 Philips 7W Master LED Energy efficiency

25 From Portland cement to geopolymer cement (e.g. fly ashes from coal power plants). Energy efficiency

26 A little less beef, organic farming, more local and seasonal food

27 From car-centered to human-centered cities Atlanta, Georgia Energy and space efficiency Copenhagen (above) Freiburg, Vauban (below)

28 Strawberry yoghurt logistics, mad or reasonable

29 Aluminium from bauxite or from scrap Energy efficiency

30 A major step is changing the business model from selling goods to leasing, sharing, repairing. From: The Lightbulb Conspiracy: The Untold Story of Planned Obsolescence documentarystream.com Walter Stahel Pict: Geneva Association Also Walter Stahel is now a member of the Club of Rome

31 The concept of a circular economy is gaining traction. And Walter Stahel s ideas will be part of it.

32 The EllenMacArthur Foundation. is at the vanguard of the Circular Economy. Ellen has accepted membership in the Club of Rome. euronews.com

33 In reality, however, we are far away from circular. In Britain it was calculated that the economy is still to 81% linear! greenallianceblog.org

34 103 Lr 102 No 101 Md 100 Fm 99 Es 98 Cf 97 Bk 96 Cm 95 Am 94 Pu 93 Np 92 U 91 Pa 90 Th 89 Ac ** Actinides 71 Lu 70 Yb 69 Tm 68 Er 67 Ho 66 Dy 65 Tb 64 Gd 63 Eu 62 Sm 61 Pm 60 Nd 59 Pr 58 Ce 57 La * Lanthanides 118 Uuo (117) (Uus) 116 Uuh 115 Uup 114 Uuq 113 Uut 112 Uub 111 Rg 110 Ds 109 Mt 108 Hs 107 Bh 106 Sg 105 Db 104 Rf ** 88 Ra 87 Fr 7 86 Rn 85 At 84 Po 83 Bi 82 Pb 81 Tl 80 Hg 79 Au 78 Pt 77 Ir 76 Os 75 Re 74 W 73 Ta 72 Hf * 56 Ba 55 Cs 6 54 Xe 53 I 52 Te 51 Sb 50 Sn 49 In 48 Cd 47 Ag 46 Pd 45 Rh 44 Ru 43 Tc 42 Mo 41 Nb 40 Zr 39 Y 38 Sr 37 Rb 5 36 Kr 35 Br 34 Se 33 As 32 Ge 31 Ga 30 Zn 29 Cu 28 Ni 27 Co 26 Fe 25 Mn 24 Cr 23 V 22 Ti 21 Sc 20 Ca 19 K 4 18 Ar 17 Cl 16 S 15 P 14 Si 13 Al 12 Mg 11 Na 3 10 Ne 9 F 8 O 7 N 6 C 5 B 4 Be 3 Li 2 2 He 1 H 1 Period Group # 103 Lr 102 No 101 Md 100 Fm 99 Es 98 Cf 97 Bk 96 Cm 95 Am 94 Pu 93 Np 92 U 91 Pa 90 Th 89 Ac ** Actinides 71 Lu 70 Yb 69 Tm 68 Er 67 Ho 66 Dy 65 Tb 64 Gd 63 Eu 62 Sm 61 Pm 60 Nd 59 Pr 58 Ce 57 La * Lanthanides 118 Uuo (117) (Uus) 116 Uuh 115 Uup 114 Uuq 113 Uut 112 Uub 111 Rg 110 Ds 109 Mt 108 Hs 107 Bh 106 Sg 105 Db 104 Rf ** 88 Ra 87 Fr 7 86 Rn 85 At 84 Po 83 Bi 82 Pb 81 Tl 80 Hg 79 Au 78 Pt 77 Ir 76 Os 75 Re 74 W 73 Ta 72 Hf * 56 Ba 55 Cs 6 54 Xe 53 I 52 Te 51 Sb 50 Sn 49 In 48 Cd 47 Ag 46 Pd 45 Rh 44 Ru 43 Tc 42 Mo 41 Nb 40 Zr 39 Y 38 Sr 37 Rb 5 36 Kr 35 Br 34 Se 33 As 32 Ge 31 Ga 30 Zn 29 Cu 28 Ni 27 Co 26 Fe 25 Mn 24 Cr 23 V 22 Ti 21 Sc 20 Ca 19 K 4 18 Ar 17 Cl 16 S 15 P 14 Si 13 Al 12 Mg 11 Na 3 10 Ne 9 F 8 O 7 N 6 C 5 B 4 Be 3 Li 2 2 He 1 H 1 Period Group # 103 Lr 102 No 101 Md 100 Fm 99 Es 98 Cf 97 Bk 96 Cm 95 Am 94 Pu 93 Np 92 U 91 Pa 90 Th 89 Ac ** Actinides 71 Lu 70 Yb 69 Tm 68 Er 67 Ho 66 Dy 65 Tb 64 Gd 63 Eu 62 Sm 61 Pm 60 Nd 59 Pr 58 Ce 57 La * Lanthanides 118 Uuo (117) (Uus) 116 Uuh 115 Uup 114 Uuq 113 Uut 112 Uub 111 Rg 110 Ds 109 Mt 108 Hs 107 Bh 106 Sg 105 Db 104 Rf ** 88 Ra 87 Fr 7 86 Rn 85 At 84 Po 83 Bi 82 Pb 81 Tl 80 Hg 79 Au 78 Pt 77 Ir 76 Os 75 Re 74 W 73 Ta 72 Hf * 56 Ba 55 Cs 6 54 Xe 53 I 52 Te 51 Sb 50 Sn 49 In 48 Cd 47 Ag 46 Pd 45 Rh 44 Ru 43 Tc 42 Mo 41 Nb 40 Zr 39 Y 38 Sr 37 Rb 5 36 Kr 35 Br 34 Se 33 As 32 Ge 31 Ga 30 Zn 29 Cu 28 Ni 27 Co 26 Fe 25 Mn 24 Cr 23 V 22 Ti 21 Sc 20 Ca 19 K 4 18 Ar 17 Cl 16 S 15 P 14 Si 13 Al 12 Mg 11 Na 3 10 Ne 9 F 8 O 7 N 6 C 5 B 4 Be 3 Li 2 2 He 1 H 1 Period Group # 103 Lr 102 No 101 Md 100 Fm 99 Es 98 Cf 97 Bk 96 Cm 95 Am 94 Pu 93 Np 92 U 91 Pa 90 Th 89 Ac ** Actinides 71 Lu 70 Yb 69 Tm 68 Er 67 Ho 66 Dy 65 Tb 64 Gd 63 Eu 62 Sm 61 Pm 60 Nd 59 Pr 58 Ce 57 La * Lanthanides 118 Uuo (117) (Uus) 116 Uuh 115 Uup 114 Uuq 113 Uut 112 Uub 111 Rg 110 Ds 109 Mt 108 Hs 107 Bh 106 Sg 105 Db 104 Rf ** 88 Ra 87 Fr 7 86 Rn 85 At 84 Po 83 Bi 82 Pb 81 Tl 80 Hg 79 Au 78 Pt 77 Ir 76 Os 75 Re 74 W 73 Ta 72 Hf * 56 Ba 55 Cs 6 54 Xe 53 I 52 Te 51 Sb 50 Sn 49 In 48 Cd 47 Ag 46 Pd 45 Rh 44 Ru 43 Tc 42 Mo 41 Nb 40 Zr 39 Y 38 Sr 37 Rb 5 36 Kr 35 Br 34 Se 33 As 32 Ge 31 Ga 30 Zn 29 Cu 28 Ni 27 Co 26 Fe 25 Mn 24 Cr 23 V 22 Ti 21 Sc 20 Ca 19 K 4 18 Ar 17 Cl 16 S 15 P 14 Si 13 Al 12 Mg 11 Na 3 10 Ne 9 F 8 O 7 N 6 C 5 B 4 Be 3 Li 2 2 He 1 H 1 Period Group # but the International Resource Panel found out that high tech metals typically enjoy recycling rates below 1%!! >50% >25-50% >10-25% 1-10% <1%??? Source: Thomas Graedel et al 2011 (in preparation) Recycling Rates of Metals. UNEP, Paris

35 Less gold per ton of gold ores. In the 19th century, finding gold was the symbol of luck. Today, gold mining is the symbol of a messy, poisonous, and socially disgusting industry! From UNEP (2013) Recycling Opportunities. (Lead author: Markus Reuter) Nairobi.

36 A new, 2013, report is on Metal Recycling Opportunities, Limits, Infrastructure. It proposes to recycle the big metals as usual, and the small ones by careful design.

37 The next step for the Panel is looking at Remanufacturing. Classically, products live longer that their components. Then you need maintenance and repair. But today it s often the other way round: components live longer than the product. Then you better design components as modules that can be reused many times, thus especially conserving the precious rare metals. Sue Weisler, Rochester Inst. of Tech. We were lucky winning Prof. Nabil Nasr, world leader of remanufacturing as a new Panel member!

38 To sum up this brief story about efficiency: Potentials for Decoupling are absolutely huge! But much of it remains sleeping! And much is eaten up by the rebound effect.

39 Overall light consumption The rebound effect is the biggest dragon:.efficiency is eaten up by additional consumption- Projection 2030 Lighting got ever more efficient and cheaper. So the demand for power from lighting is steadily rising. Source: Tsao et al, 2010 Per capita GDP/cost of light

40 Leading us finally to policy questions. Basically we have 3 options: Command and control <including bans, focusing mostly on toxicity> Tradable permits <worked for some air pollutants, water extraction, land use, but not so well on CO2> Direct pricing <the underestimated, sleeping giant!>

41 My preference relating to resource efficiency is direct pricing. But we must avoid capital destruction, industry emigration, and social injustice. Make energy and resource prices rise slowly, in proportion to the documented average efficiency increases.

42 What I am suggesting is a ping-pong, similar to the one we had in the Industrial Revolution

43 Labour productivity rose roughly twentyfold in 150 years, - and so did wages! Example from the USA from showing how wages followed labour productivity

44 The new resource ping-pong could trigger a steady increase, perhaps five-fold, of average resource productivity, in 40 years. It would massively reduce wastefulness, much of the rebound effect, and most of Europe s import dependency!

45 Two corrections to the price avenue: 1. Life-line tariffs for the poor; 2. Revenue neutrality for endangered branches: like with the Swedish NOx tax of 1992.

46 Clearly, I am not expecting the paradigm shift to happen very soon. But if Europe and other pioneering countries and companies enjoy first mover advantages, the others will follow.