RWE Dea Energy Opportunities. C. Schlichter Vienna, 7 th November 2012

Transcription

1 RWE Dea Energy Opportunities C. Schlichter Vienna, 7 th November 2012

2 EUMENA Synergies for energy What is on it for upstream Source: Dii

3 Electricity demand in EUMENA doubles until 2050 due to higher demand per capita and increasing population Electricity demand per Capita [MWh] Population in Mio. Annual electricity demand [TWh] , ,73 5,61 1, Electricity demand per capita increase due to growth of economy Population growth to almost 1 billion people in EUMENA The annual electricity demand will double due to the two levers EU 1 ~ 60% ~ 2.5% ~ 65% MENA 2 > 200% ~ 40% ~330% Source: Dii EU 27 as per plus Switzerland and Norway North Africa and Middle East (including Turkey, Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia)

4 North African countries understand their renewable energy potential and have ambitious plans for RES development Development plans for Renewable Energy installations until 2020 (GW)* GW non-hydro Solar not specified GW 75% of solar with CSP +1.3 GW 90% of solar with CSP GW of installed capacity 85% of solar with CSP 7.2 GW Wind & 125 MW Solar of installed capacity GW or 10% of prim. Energy Solar not specified Morocco Algeria Tunisa Libya** Egypt Jordan new built Wind new built Solar (CSP/PV) operating renewable energy Source: Dii *) Preliminary analysis based on announced development plans and Dii calculations to project to 2020 **) No official targets available, waiting for new government to define new energy strategy

5 Almost 50% of cost reduction until 2050 for RES technologies due to expected learning curves System cost per kw 1 in percent of 2010 cost estimate Technology cost % 90% 80% 70% 60% 80% 70% Wind on-shore: 900 /kw Wind off-shore: /kw 2 50% 40% 0% 50% 40% 30% CSP with 8h storage: 2000 /kw Utility PV: 700 /kw Source: Dii 1. Refers to nameplate capacity, i.e. kw p (kw peak) for Utility PV and Wind and kw e (kw electric) for CSP 2. Depending on distance to coast/sea depth

6 The huge potential in MENA limits electricity costs in EU and allows for an affordable energy supply for entire EUMENA

7 Europe s Gas Scenario from a utilities point of view billion cm/a Gas in Europe: Demand, Production, Import Source: CERA Demand Europe Imports Europe Indigenous Production Europe Origin of Gas in Europe > Strive towards clean(er) energy. Gas as premium, environmentally friendly, i.e. bridging fuel > Limited Economic growth and coal/gas price competition in the power sector > Despite new gas fired capacity and challenging outlook for nuclear energy (Exit in Germany) little gas demand for power generation > European gas production is dropping > Strive for portfolio diversification & security of gas supplies > New regasification infrastructure Source: CERA

8 RWE Dea operational Activities Europe, North Africa, Caspian Region/Black Sea, Caribbean Sea Exploration and production Exploration Ireland Norway UK Denmark Poland Germany RWE Dea has production facilities in: Germany, UK, Norway, Denmark and Egypt, Turkmenistan and holds licences in: Trinidad & Tobago Mauretania Algeria Libya Egypt Algeria, Ireland, Libya, Mauretania, Poland, Trinidad and Tobago and Turkmenistan.

9 Core region North Africa Operating from a broad base ensures future growth North Africa > High potential region > RWE Dea holds outstanding position in gas reserves in Egypt and has significant exploration success in Algeria and Libya Target Maintain a high level of production execute field developments Frontier exploration

10 The Upstream Story: NOC s looking for partners to jointly manage > Frontier plays exploration and development technologies > Large investments in green field developments > Specialised know-how and flexibility in brown field developments > Shallow/deep water challenges > Environmental challenges and build sustainable capabilities NOC s are getting more involved beyond upstream > Stable and clean generation of electricity > Supplies for growing domestic demand of gas and electricity > Modern infrastructure > Opportunities to participate in new export markets

11 Understanding of expectations, goals and roles NOCs > Ownership of Hydrocarbons > Marketing of own oil and gas and delivering economic value > Individual regimes for licences and conditions > Facing growing domestic demand > Develop local technical skills, need of modern energy supplies and infrastructure including power generation > Getting access to transport (midstream) and markets IOCs and Utilities > Interest in own reserves/replenishment > Interest in access to equity gas and delivering economic value > Need for transparent processes and stable conditions > Willingness to contribute to domestic supply > Broad know-how in latest technologies including environmental expertise and efficient power generation > Ownership of infrastructure and access to customers in premium markets We share the will and need to increase sustainable energy supplies.

12 RWE s role in the European gas business Exploration/Production Supply/Trading Transport/Storage Distribution Sales > reserves and resources: 228 mn m³ OE > Production: about 5 mn. m³ OE RWE Dea RWE Supply & Trading RWE regional downstream companies (npower, Essent,...) > Reserves and resources: 237 million m³ OE > Production: above 5 million m³ OE > Gas supply & gas trading > LNG shipping and offshore regasification > Transport pipelines > Gas storage > Distribution pipelines > Gas supply to customers (ca. 8 million) and power plants > Regional focus in Central Europe > Established gas and oil producer in Europe and Egypt with a significant growth and exploration success story, new licences in the Caspian area and Trinidad & Tobago and future interests in the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa

13 Cooperation with RWE Know-how through the whole energy segment Operations Projects Consulting > Upstream oil and gas > Midstream LNG > Power generation and grids > Renewables > Oil and gas field development > Power plant technologies > Joint Implementation/Clean Development Mechanism > Energy Efficiency > Various technologies such as smart grids R & D > Desertec > Hybrid power for oil field installations

14 Example: Innovative power supplies in upstream facilities Opportunity: Avoidance of black-outs Generation Consumption Ras Budran Zeit Bay Ras Fanar - National grid - Backup: 2 dualfuel gas/diesel turbines (26 MW max, run on 16 MW) Total 12 MW - Facility (9 MW) - Platf./ESPs. (2 MW) - Camp (1 MW) Electricity costs* 3.8 ct/kwh and consumption ~75 GWh p.a. Opportunity & O&M costs* ~ 2.5 Mio. p.a. opportunity costs, damaged equip. and maintenance - 21 trips p.a. - 4 own gas turbines (3 op.) - Backup: none Total 7 MW - Facility (2-3 MW) - camp (1.5 MW) - 3 rd Party (2 MW) - Fuel Gas ~385 mmcf/yr and ~ L Diesel ~ 0.5 Mio. p.a. opportunity costs, damaged equip. and maintenance - 3 trips p.a. - GPC: 4 gas turbines (total 2x5 MW + 2x3 MW) - Backup: none - National grid planned Total 4.7 MW - Facility (0.2 MW) - Platf./ESPs.(4 MW) - Camp (0.5 MW) ct/kwh - ~17 GWh p.a. ~ 1.2 Mio. p.a. opportunity costs, damaged equip. and maintenance - 16 trips p.a. *Applied exchange rates: LE/ = 8; U$/ = 1.3 ** more infos in backup

15 Example: We maybe able to supply a low-carbon electricity mix with electricity cost of below 7 ct/kwh ct/kwh with Capex 22,70 fuel/customer costs LCOE 15,00 28 MW 12 75** GWh 48 Wind PV Gas turbine Electricity out of No subsidies 4,30 national grid with Capex 6,40 Gas Diesel 5,00 Wind PV 6,65 Hybrid* 5 11 Installed Capacity of Hybrid electricity generation Oil producing companies do not receive subsidies for the consumption of national electricity. Electricity from gas and diesel expensive due to low efficiency (<20%) of gas turbine Gas from third party supplier (Belayim pipeline) is not unlimited available LCOE of renewable mix only approximately 6.67 ct/kwh. Electricity from the national grid not considered due to possible blackouts but could be an alternative to gas turbine which would reduce total costs and CO2 emissions even more * Hybrid means to install new Wind and PV generation facilities and use the existing turbines with gas h Wind; 2000 h solar ** Demand of Gas/Diesel/Grid in 2010/11 in Ras Budran ~ 75 GWh.

16 Conclusion: The Growth Story > Rising Electricity Demand in North Africa Can be met by burning own fossil resources, involving international investors in upstream JVs through PSAs (current model) Can be met by renewable generation technologies, involving international investors and technologies, generating revenues through increased export of oil & gas Plenty of room for win-win energy opportunities by working together with RWE Added advantage by working together with RWE Dea in upstream ventures through their 113 years of experience

17 This is also an upstream story Source: Dii Thank you very much for your attention!